It is often said ‘forwards win you the game, backs decide by how much’. I would propose a slight change to this ‘forwards win you the game – in the ruck’.
The breakdown is the key to unlocking the secret of consistently winning rugby matches. Watch any All Blacks game and it follows the same formula.
Slow the opposition ball, win the pilfer or penalty, counter-attack when the opposing defence isn’t set and win.
It is something that seems to have been lost in the Michael Cheika era. More often than not, the Wallaby formula has been; try and make the tackle, do nothing after, hope and pray the opposition makes a mistake and lose.
The alternative is when David Pocock gets involved, which usually ends with him winning a herculean turnover using his gigantic biceps complete with veins that look like anacondas!
Or, he gets absolutely hammered by a train of opposition forwards (as they well know he is the only one they really have to worry about). We all know Pocock is basically the Bradman of the ruck.
But even Don Bradman needed other blokes to bat with him.
There are a lot of calls going around that we don’t have the talent to compete at the highest level. I would disagree. We just aren’t picking players based on the right metrics.
To give an example, the Wallaby starting team picked for last weekend’s game had collectively won only nine pilfers and penalties all Super Rugby season from a combined 230 games.
They had tackled at an average efficiency of 77.9 per cent and conceded 116 penalties all season.
Compare this to the starting All Blacks team picked. They won 50 pilfers or penalties, had a 77.3 per cent tackle efficiency and conceded 110 penalties. (The All Blacks had only 188 games between them so I have adjusted the figures as if they had played the same).
Yep, you read it right – over five times as many pilfers and penalties won at the ruck with fewer penalties conceded and pretty similar tackle efficiency.
You can have a backline full of players with the body of Jonah Lomu, the step of Shane Williams and the vision of Stephen Larklam but you will find it very hard to beat a team five times better than you at the ruck!
Here is a potential Wallaby team that focuses on this issue (with how many pilfers or penalties won this season).
1. Harry Johnson-Holmes, 6
2. Anaru Rangi, 4
3. Allan Alaalatoa, 0
4. Izack Rodda, 0
5. Rory Arnold, 0
6. Pete Samu, 5
7. Liam Wright, 13
8. Lachlan McCaffrey, 6
9. Joe Powell, 2
10. Christian Lealiifano, 0
11. Cameron Clark, 0
12. Billy Meakes, 4
13. Karmichael Hunt, 4
14. Henry Speight, 4
15. Tom Banks, 1
They’ve won 49 pilfers and penalties, tackled at 79.7 per cent efficiency and conceded only 94 penalties.
This team, coincidentally, has 230 games between them too. I know, there are a few injuries, Hunt is out of position slightly and a few positions there aren’t really ball poachers so I just chose good defenders. But you get the point.
With a few selection changes, we could be equal to the All Blacks at the ruck with a slightly better tackle efficiency all while giving away fewer penalties.
On the face of it, you might think the attack wouldn’t be as good as the Cheika alternative. But, I ask you this – how many extra tries would be scored when you have five times as many counterattack opportunities? I cannot see that side letting in 35 points as we did on the weekend.
Unfortunately, getting your hands dirty in the ruck won’t make the highlight reel like Bernard Foley’s ‘career peak’ penalty against the Crusaders, or one of Taniela Tupou’s perfect no arm shoulder charges on a helpless flyhalf after a clearing kick, or even a beautiful high ball take from the fella who used to play fullback.
But winning brings the crowds back.
This is just an example but it hammers home the point that we have severely neglected the most important area of the game. However, it is so easily fixed with just a few selection changes.
Worth a shot don’t you think?
Chivas
Roar Rookie
He threw a pass that got intercepted and that makes the loss his fault. There were 15 ABs on the field that day not one, but we want to scape one guy for one thing. For the record the ball was still on target to hit the player it was intended for, not some Hail Mary pass like Cooper throws. And now people define Carlos’s career based on it. One incident in a two decade period barely rates the suggestion he is inconsistent and flaky, which Quade certainly is and has been his entire career. But Quade on a good day has shown himself to be quite good. Would he get a look in over Larkham, Ella, Lynaugh? Maybe in Australia people like Kearns and Kafef rate Carlos on one incident and some couch potatoes who follow the drama rather than the game, but still love to share their opinions. But when others who should know better do I find it irritating. On Quade’s best day he might be fit to ties Spencer’s laces, but Spencer did it consistently for close on two decades not a season and a couple of tests. Look at the accolades Carlos has acquired internationally and respect he has globally even now as a skills coach in SA. And we speak of Quade in the same breath. That to me is a joke… rant over ????
Double Agent
Guest
QC - 2011. It's a long time since he was at his best.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Agree Chivas: but as the AB's have a constant supply of good to great 10's he is about the closest we come to him. Spencer was fantastic on his day so could QC be to a lesser extent. He lost a lot of support when Mortlock intercepted a loose pass in the 2003 world cup. So from that POV he is similar to QC. I saw a utube of a try Spencer scored for an EU team a few years ago and I don't think anyone else but Spencer could have scored it. He ran most of the field.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Fionn: It's a bit wearing and tiresome to keep banging the same drum with the same opinions, they then go out and prove we are correct and play exactly the same for years! I'm not suggesting we are smart but commentators smarter than us ie Nick have also had their say. Does no criticism get through to this bunch are they above taking advice from anyone? Maybe Cheika phones Eddie and he tells him he is doing a great job and 'just keep going you will get there in the end!' Whilst England smacks our backside regularly.
soapit
Roar Guru
It was only ever a comparison to Spencer, doesn't mean he was up there. And I think it was more to to with their attitude to risk now I think about it more. Yeah I like mcaffery . Real point of difference skill wise. pretty surprised he didnt make the squad. Woukd have taken a bit off pressure of the backs playmakers having someone willing to make a play from the loosies.
Yeah well, you know this mercenary culture that has befallen professional rugby doesn’t sit well with me. Steyn most certainly isn’t in the same class as Pollard, but, it is what it is. I remember when Rassie started coaching, he started at the Cheetahs and had all sorts of innovative ideas, I suspect he will be a hot commodity in future seasons
Kiwikrs
Roar Rookie
Here's hoping, but the mass exodus may mean 2021 is a realistic target to see tangible results
Kiwikrs
Roar Rookie
That was also mentioned on the Rugby ruckus too
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Not all critics of Foley hate him Dean. Your use of the ‘h’ word in this context is a cheap shot in itself.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
I agree Fionn, he stood up well against all his opposites. He has good all round skills and knows his position. I was very impressed with him, even when they played against the Jaguares and getting cleaned up, he stood up and held his own. I think having players like him if they are available in the playing 15 is super important. He’s no show pony but the real thing from what I’ve seen. Somehow he reminds me of Mowen, just better and i think Mowen added something to the Wallabies when they needed it too. For me that is probably the biggest miss by Chieka with this team… no McAffrey. For the life of me I can’t understand why not. Just loading the forwards up with big boppas is not going to win many games. I think PK keeps banging on about balance and that is so true. I don’t hold with PK’s hatred of Hooper, because I think he adds a dimension to the forwards that the side really needs. What I don’t like is seeing Hooper sea-gulling on the wing when the ball is not even getting out there and when it does it is easily read. He’s not a winger. I thought when he got passed the ball last week on the wing, he looked like a goose or maybe a duck in the headlights. He was simply and easily bundled over the side line. What a waste of a player. That’s wing and a prayer bs. But this is clearly a game plan put together by god knows who, and a pretty stupid one at that. The locks for mine need to be a bit more mobile too when it comes to work around the ruck area. they are handy when it comes to managing mauls, jumping in the line-out and pushing in the scrum… but the modern lock also needs to be far better than that. If you have a skills coach, start with the freakin ruck, when to dive in, when not to and if you are on your feet and touch the ball, fight with everything you have and don’t give up.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
How highly regarded is Rassie in SA as a sports administrator. I imagine it goes without saying he would be held in very high stead as a player. I remember watching him when he was still only Currie cup and my mate pointing him out, commenting how good he was… For me I really enjoyed the way he played and how effective he was. I guess everyone has their favourites in a team and he was one for me. Whenever he played, he was always a big threat and we were in for a torrid time. Also is Handre going to break the shackles. He has had a pretty impressive year for the bulls this year and seems to have settled well. Pity he is off to France, guess it means I will have to start watching NH rugby. I read that with Pollard leaving and Steyne coming back that is a fair swap. I think if I’m a bulls fan I would be thinking that is a pretty crap swap.
Citizen
Guest
If RA had taken up Jake White's offer and kicked Cheika to the curb the Wallabies would right now be doing exactly this and doing much better. White is a man who knows how to win, but it seems winning is low on RA's priority list.
Yeah suspect the team getting rid of the jitters first will pull away, making heavy work for the other. I think Rassie’s record will not change much, from earlier news he is stepping down as coach after the world cup, and will focus on his actual job, running rugby development etc.
Bentnuc
Roar Pro
Well said! The 'dont over commit' philosophy has been like a disease that has gradually infected its host since 2001... now the patient is terminal!
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I think he was probably the best Brumby loose forward this year. Thought he would definitely make the Wallabies squad and likely make the starting 15. He has ball skills, jumps at the line out, runs okay and competes at the breakdown. I actually thought he complimented Hooper and Naisarani pretty well.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
More important Soapy, what do you think of Mcaffrey. I really like him. Yeah he’s not a massive unit good for smashing players backwards, but he isn’t a midget and he’s darned effective, has good output and seems to have decent rugby smarts and situational awareness. I think it is madness he isn’t the starting 6 or 8. What am I missing?
Chivas
Roar Rookie
Not sure which time Soapit, because it was mighty fleeting. He has had one decent season and a couple of handy games for the Wallabies hasn’t he. Can’t say he had anywhere near the all round skills of Carlos though delivered consistently over a long period. Don’t think Quade will be remembered in anything like the light that Carlos is around the world (well NZ and SA at least :-)). For me at least it is just people like Kafer and co. who try to perpetuate this myth, that there is any similarities between them… and the only reason is because Quade said that Carlos was who he looked up to. I look up to Carlos too, doesn’t mean I could ever play like him, sadly…
Chivas
Roar Rookie
Ha ha. Very good come back. I wonder though before Jones’ knee injury what the comparison would be, which was when he was playing 7 :-). And good luck on the weekend. Hope the game is a belter. I think you commented somewhere else that both teams will show a little bit of rust. I guess it is who can shake it off quicker. Also am quite impressed with Rassie as a coach. Obviously a massively talented rugby brain, which he demonstrated throughout his playing days. I worry that he may continue to grow and take this side somewhere. I am however hoping his record which you also pointed out is not particularly great at the moment, as a coach, remains that way ????
soapit
Roar Guru
chivas i think there was a time in coopers career where the comparison was semi appropriate but it just hasnt developed that way long term
I am sure Hooper is faster than Michael Jones ????