It’s the unexpected losses that hurt the most.
England were convincing favourites for much of the first three days of the first Ashes Test. Early in the third day, as Chris Woakes and Stuart Broad were putting on an unexpectedly sprightly 65-run partnership, Australia were predicted by CricViz as having only a nine per cent chance of victory. Behind the efforts of Steve Smith, Matthew Wade, Nathan Lyon and Patrick Cummins, Australia turned the match around and claimed an impressive victory.
As has already been noted by Daniel Brettig, this match bears a distinct similarity to Australia’s victory in the first Ashes Test in 1989. In both cases Australia entered the game with a poor recent history in England.
In 1989 Australia entered this series having lost the last three Ashes series in England. This year’s team carries the history of Australia’s losses in the last four series in England. In both 2019 and 1989 the English team entered the Ashes confident of continuing this strong recent form but finished the first Test on the losing side. Australia will hope these similarities continue through the rest of the 2019 Ashes and they repeat the 4-0 series victory achieved by the 1989 Australians.
(AP Photo/Ricardo Mazalan)
However, England would also do well to heed the lessons of defeat. In 1989 England made five changes between the first and second Test and ultimately played 29 different players over the six-match series. A total of 13 players played only one match. England’s selectors of the era treated team selection like a blinded darts player, endlessly throwing projectiles at a wall hoping to find the bullseye. Yet all the selection uncertainty did was destroy the morale of the team and help lead to a series loss.
There will be the temptation for England to make wholesale changes to the team. After all, selectors often want to give the sense that they are proactive, and there is little that is sexier than change. However, England need to resist this urge and make a statement of confidence within the members of their team.
There is pressure on players like Jason Roy, Joe Denly and Jonny Bairstow, but for various reasons they are all worth sticking with. Roy has played only two Test matches and it is too early to make a definitive judgment on his qualities as a Test player. While his dismissal in the second innings against Australia did show poor judgment, that is part of the risk of Roy. Yes, he will make mistakes, but he has the potential to win a game for England.
Denly equally has played only four Tests and should play be given a further chance to prove his worth. Denly’s issue seems to stem from an inability to convert starts. In seven of his eight innings he has reached double figures but has only once made more than 50. This should change in time. The greatest challenge for a batsman is to make a start; the rest generally comes easier. Denly is making those starts, so England should give him the chance to convert.
Bairstow’s recent Test record is poor. He has averaged only 23.68 in Tests since the start of 2018, has passed 30 twice in his last 16 Test innings and has made five ducks in this period. However, do not necessarily mistake Bairstow’s run as bad form – we are not far from a World Cup in which he scored two centuries and was England’s second-highest scorer. That indicates Bairstow isn’t necessarily seeing the ball badly. Also, Bairstow has a history of performing well under pressure, and having Ben Foakes breathing down his neck may inspire him to greater things.
While there is a virtue in showing confidence in their team, I am not saying England should name an unchanged side for the second Test. Firstly, Jimmy Anderson will not recover from his calf injury and is likely to be replaced by Jofra Archer or Olly Stone. Then there is Moeen Ali.
In many respects Ali does not deserve the pressure. Since August 2018 he has taken the most wickets in Test cricket at an average of 24.04. However, playing Australia has seemingly destroyed Ali’s confidence. He is virtually a walking wicket against Nathan Lyon and his bowling in the first Test was both relatively ineffectual and expensive.
It is also clear that Joe Root has lost confidence in Ali’s bowling. There were key occasions during Australia’s second innings that Root elected to bowl himself or Joe Denly. When a player’s mental performance is as clearly compromised as Ali’s, it is probably time for a change.
Outside of Ali and Anderson, the bravest step for England’s selectors to take would be to return the rest of the team that lost the first Test in humiliating fashion. That step would go a long way to rebuilding their confidence.
Ultimately these are still adept players and many of them have succeeded against Australia in the past. A statement of faith would give those players the chance to succeed again.
Kevin Higginson
Guest
Think that Buttler could do with a rest. The England set up seems to work in that everyone knows the ‘squad’ of 15 players and those who could come in are as good and in most cases fresher. Maybe giving Buttler a rest, and he has said he is emotionally tired after his exploits in the final, giving Foakes the gloves and telling Bairstow he is in just as a batsman would help. Leach for Moeen and either Curran or Archer for Anderson, depending on Archer’s fitness.
Josh H
Roar Rookie
Also, Bairstow has a history of performing well under pressure, and having Ben Foakes breathing down his neck may inspire him to greater things Ever since Ben Foakes debuted in Bairstow's absence in November last year, Bairstow has averaged 22.64 in Tests. By the looks of things, Foakes doesn't appear to be inspiring Bairstow quite enough.
Melvin Pukely
Guest
Warner failed again in England.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Finch was having massive problems with the ball coming back into him and Bumrah & co exploited it expertly. He got done that way in the WC a couple of times too. Maybe he can work it out but, personally, I think it's time to move on and go with the younger guys. Finch is 32 (I think) and more or less set in his ways. Under extreme pressure he'll probably revert back to it even if he works it out tomorrow in the nets.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Yeah. Most batsmen would learn how to graft in 1st class cricket before they get to Test level. Roy is obviously talented but is he talented enough to learn on the job quickly enough. The other risk is he may simply not have it in him. I’ve seen calls to bat him down the order and that might be a better idea than starting him at the top. However, that would mean dropping someone so that solution creates another problem unfortunately.
Nick Parmenter
Roar Rookie
I agree with this - I do think it’s time to give Bairstow a rest. He expended so much emotional energy in the World Cup - the spat with Michael Vaughan and the subsequent centuries, plus of course the nature of the final - he looks completely spent now. Plus as you’ve said, his wretched run against the red ball goes back further. Ben Foakes has looked well equipped for test cricket and has the right temperament for the occasion.
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
The cupboard is pretty bare for quality English batsmen. The name I've seen most mentioned is Dominic Sibley who is having an excellent season for Warwickshire and could open the batting, thereby moving Roy down a couple of spots where I think he could do more damage. Other pure batting alternatives could be Dawid Malan or Gary Ballance, who are both having good county seasons but have been tried and discarded at test level. Ben Foakes is the obvious replacement for Bairstow. Foakes was very good in his brief stint in the test team.
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
Finch is an interesting case study El Loco. He initially started his test career quite strongly and looked one of Australia's best batsman in the tour of the UAE against Pakistan. As such, I think he is a potentially capable test batsman, but unfortunately hit a dreadful run of form in all levels of cricket once he got back to Australia and was found out by an excellent Indian attack. What impressed me about Finch in the UAE was how he tailored his game to the conditions. It'll be interesting to see whether Roy can do the same.
The longest Roy has ever batted in first class cricket is 3 and a half hours. This does not mean that he cannot be a success at test but he is not the type of batsmen to save a game. No doubt he has the potential to be a devastating opening batsman when the conditions suit him - the real question is does England have the patience to allow him to learn the virtues of grafting and patience.
El Loco
Roar Rookie
Roy is also similar to Finch in that he's being asked to perform a role in tests that he doesn't perform in domestic first class cricket. You'd think that would have served as a reasonable case study for England but apparently not. I know their opening batting stocks are thin, but it doesn't seem to be the smartest use of Roy.
danwain
Guest
I really hope they keep Denly in the team, that would be great
James Butcher
Guest
Cameron, I think you’ve probably got it about right, certainly as far as the selectors are concerned anyway. Bayliss particularly has stated numerous times that he’d rather give a player one game too many rather than the other way. I would largely agree with that, especially when comparing to ‘the good old days’ that you refer to where there was a revolving door in constant use throughout series. Having said all that, these days it’s sometimes seemingly harder to be left out of a side than it is to get picked in the first place. Bairstow is a great example, he’s been an important part of the team for a good while but his returns have been diminishing in Test cricket whilst his value in ODI cricket has gone the other way. Unfortunately his keeping has declined too whilst Buttler has the gloves in ODIs. England’s stated mission of winning the WC obviously bore fruit, however it has been very noticeable that for the most part, the players playing both formats have struggled to readapt to the rigours of Tests. Some of these England players hadn’t played any red ball cricket for months prior to playing Ireland the other week or in some cases this first Ashes Test. Given this, it’s actually not that surprising that they seem singularly incapable of constructing an innings for the situation, in this case, batting for a day on an absolute Bunsen (admittedly no easy at the best of times). I would drop Bairstow and possibly Buttler, not for good, but just to give them time away from the Ashes to play some red ball cricket and find a bit of form. Unfortunately, the way Test series are arranged these days there is barely time to breath let alone go away and work on your game away from an actual Test match. Ali should certainly be dropped, his confidence appears non existent and the fact that he was dropped during the WC should have been the warning sign that he wasn’t ready for an Ashes series.
Paul
Roar Guru
Cameron, I only have one question; if England WERE to make wholesale changes, who would come into the team? The pundits seem to think Archer and Leach would come in for Lords, which makes sense given Anderson's injury and Ali's lack of form, but who would replace Roy, Denly & Bairstow, IF the selectors thought changes were needed? I get the impression there's a lack of Test quality batsmen in England, especially guys who could open or bat 3. If that's the case, it might be more about making do with what's available and hoping one or two of them will come good, rather than going back to County cricket and trying to find someone capable of doing the job at this level. In other words, the cupboards just about bare.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Nothing screams panic quite as loudly as wholesale changes on the team sheet, so yeah, England should probably try to avoid that. There's no need anyway. If they go down again at Lords and the same people fail it might be time to look at it but until then it might be better for England to just keep the faith. .. I think your call to give Moeen a rest is a good one though. He looks mentally shot and might benefit from some time out of the spotlight. Not resting him could potentially do more harm than good. .. Denly? Don't know. He wasn't in the right head space this game but might come good. You'd know him a lot better than I do. .. Roy? I put him in the same boat as Finch. Top line one day players but will struggle a bit in test cricket. Should make a score now and then but consistency will be the biggest challenge for players like them. .. Anyway, that was a good, common sense article Cameron. I enjoyed it so good work mate.