The AFL stock market: Finals week 1

Footy fans are in for a September to remember, with an open finals series full of compelling fixtures ready to throw up many curve balls over the next few weeks.

In the AFL stock market, there are three categories: buy, hold and sell. If you’re a keen follower of the game and are looking to invest your time wisely for the first week of finals, check out my tips below.

West Coast vs Essendon

Buy: Sleep
It’s hard to imagine the Bombers heading to Perth without a grand plan of pulling off an upset win. With a host of players due to return and the week off coming at the right time, Essendon will be fit enough to run with the Eagles.

Being able to run is great, but it won’t help the away team after the first quarter. West Coast will win this game easily and it will be over by halfway through the third quarter, which is good for Victorian viewers given the late start.

Sell: Essendon’s tactics
Put your hand up if you know how Essendon will play on Thursday night. No one?

The Bombers are a puzzling case, given how well they can play with fast and free-flowing ball movement, and the fact we see two quarters of it every fortnight. What we’ve seen from the coaching staff is a very reactionary, strangely cautious approach far too often, and that doesn’t win finals.

If pace off half back can instigate strong attacking play, then using that pace to apply pressure both laterally in the defensive half and through the midfield needs to be explored. Essendon has to try something new to win, and if they don’t, we’re selling them quickly.

Geelong vs Collingwood

Buy: Jordan Roughead
Jaidyn Stephenson and Jordan De Goey returning is better for Jordan Roughead than anyone else in this contest. Roughead can return to playing as the full back without needing to worry about playing a different role for his team, and his confidence will result in him holding Tom Hawkins goalless.

Geelong’s attack tends to rely on either individual brilliance from their star midfielders or hoping Hawkins can tear the opposition apart. Neither tactic holds up in finals, and Jordan Roughead will prove that with a starring role in the qualifying final on Friday night.

Buy: Geelong’s first half
The minor premiership and finishing with a percentage 17 points higher than the next best team should earn the Cats a little more respect than they’re currently getting, but a combination of poor form and Chris Scott’s focus on the fixturing has made it difficult.

(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

Geelong have done what any good team should do against the weaker teams, but a failure to produce an impressive performance against a top team since Round 6 against West Coast gives validity to predictions of a straight-sets exit.

While it’s easy to agree with the sentiment that Geelong is tactically inflexible, Chris Scott has made subtle changes over the past few weeks to give the team more fluidity all over the ground.

If he is happy to continue playing Quinton Narkle in between the arcs, Mitch Duncan off half back and Zach Tuohy as a half forward, we’ll see Geelong leading at some stage in the first half by four goals. As the game goes on, Collingwood should come away with the win, but expect the Cats to be fired-up early.

GWS vs Western Bulldogs

Buy: Hopes for a close game
The 11-goal thrashing seen a month ago between these two teams won’t happen again in this do-or-die clash.

GWS have suffered from a lot of injuries and haven’t been able to adequately cover the absences, which has resulted in some shocking performance ahead of the finals.

It has been quite the opposite for the Bulldogs, who enter this clash with great confidence in their ability to do serious September damage beyond this clash. Yet you can begin to invest your time in this game.

The inclusions of Toby Greene and Jacob Hopper will be welcomed and will provide GWS with a deeper midfield rotation than we’ve seen for three months. With Stephen Coniglio unlikely to play, Greene’s ability to play a 50/50 split between attack and midfield will be difficult for the Bulldogs to contend with. The midfield battle was decisive in Round 22 with Josh Kelly still finding fitness and only Tim Taranto and Zac Williams as full-time midfielders.

GWS played an unnecessarily oversized team last time in the last fixture between the two clubs, meaning we are going to see a vastly different and improved team home team, compared to what we can expect of the Bulldogs.

Nick Haynes’ fitness may be the deciding factor when predicting a result, but GWS’ midfield won’t be completely outworked and dismantled as they were some four weeks ago, which opened the floodgates for the Dogs.

The Western Bulldogs may be firing up at the right time of the year, but this is still a Giants outfit that can make a preliminary final with its structures back in action for the first time in months. Grab the popcorn and clear the Saturday afternoon schedule, we’re in for a ripper.

Brisbane vs Richmond

Sell: Interstate myth
Richmond played seven games at the MCG to finish off the season, leaving everyone up in arms about the disgrace that is AFL fixturing.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

What people willingly overlook is the way in which Richmond have approached every game, and been able to flick the switch that premiership contenders tend to have.

For the first time, Richmond flicked the switch to start the game, and given the motivation of the opposition, it meant a relatively straightforward win against this week’s opposition.

Richmond’s ability to play in a variety of ways throughout games, thanks to their players being able to play multiple roles, holds the team in good stead for big games, regardless of the venue.

If experts are looking to analyse this game, more work needs to be done on assessing how the reach of Brisbane’s talls will trouble Richmond’s key position players at both ends, particularly given the nightmares Mason Cox caused last September.

Harris Andrews, Eric Hipwood and Oscar McInerney will be far better in contested situations than their opposition, and this is the issue that Richmond faces. Exploring how the conditions may play a part, or how Brisbane will handle Richmond’s pace, is a better path to follow for official media outlets, and it will give both teams more respect.

Buy: Tackling
We know this will be a fun game and given the conditions at the Gabba in any twilight/night game tend to be slippery, we can expect tackling to play a major role in this contest.

The narrative of finals always leans towards the contested aspect of the game, and the home team’s bigger bodies thrive in that environment. Dayne Zorko and Jarryd Lyons averaged over six tackles a game during the home-and-away season, while Mitch Robinson will no doubt leave some yellow-and-black jumpers laying on the ground.

Midfield tackling is where the Lions will have an advantage over the Tigers, with only Jack Graham averaging over five tackles per game. The downside to this for Brisbane stems from the fact Richmond thrive on the dirty ball sent inside 50, particularly with the conditions.

If the tackles don’t hold the ball within the centre square, Richmond will be more than happy to bomb the ball forward, where the forward tackling can settle in and squeeze the Lions. This will be an outstanding contest built on high pressure. It’s now just a matter of which team can execute better.