Australia’s 12-man squad has been announced for the crucial fourth Test in Manchester starting on Wednesday.
There is a huge decision still to make before the first bowl is bowled at Old Trafford, if it has not already been made.
Do the Australians start Mitchell Starc in place of Peter Siddle, or do they omit a batsman to play Siddle? Is a three-man pace attack enough, alongside the spinning options?
The only batsmen left to leave out are Marcus Harris and Matthew Wade as the selectors will not budge on playing Tim Paine despite his poor form. As Usman Khawaja has been dropped, Harris will play as an opener.
It leaves one final selection decision to make: Wade versus Siddle. Extra batting or extra bowling?
A recent history of Tests in Manchester shows that England’s lowest first-innings total is 363 over the last ten years. First-innings totals have been high for the hosts for well over a decade at the venue, so that is a concern.
This pitch will have bounce and pace then spin. That seems par for the course in Manchester. The second innings are often much lower scores – the wicket gets tricky and the spinners take control, which appears to be a possibility in this Test.
England’s last five first-innings scores in Manchester have been 363, 589, 367, 367 and 419.
We witnessed Australia struggling to finish off England as the pitch became flatter and more batting-friendly at Headingley without an additional seamer – and that was without Starc, who tends to bowl well in short spells.
So the question beckons: do Australia play Wade or Siddle?
In 2013 – the last Test Australia played in Manchester – Siddle took five wickets, while Starc took three. Australia made a huge first-innings total, declaring at 7-527, but they batted first.
Australia controlled that match before rain prevented a probably victory. It is some time ago. The bowlers are six years older but experience counts.
Wade, of course, likes flatter wickets. His one century this tour was made on the back of some good fortune in the second innings at Edgbaston on a pitch that was flattening out. He has looked all at sea with his technique when the pitch has provided some movement in all the other innings, making virtually no runs.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
This pitch could be batting-friendly in the first innings but neither side has batted well this series, with team averages being under 30 per player. Wade looked very susceptible to spin – nearly losing his wicket three or four times before he reached 50 in his century without Jack Leach playing – and there must be some question marks over his poor batting since.
The toss may be crucial. Since 2001, England have not been beaten in Manchester. The good news is Australia have played them twice in that period and both were drawn Tests, with Australia denied a near certain victory in 2013 by bad weather.
There is a huge claim in playing Siddle with Starc. Both have a good record here and Siddle may assist in the second innings, particularly if England bat first. We can’t predict the toss but Siddle would be insurance.
The top-order batsmen have been erratic outside of Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne, and Siddle has scored some handy runs with the bat as well. Starc bowls well on the historically flatter pitches in England (Lord’s, The Oval and Manchester).
Notably, Craig Overton has been included for his pace over Chris Woakes but players like Jimmy Anderson have a good record in Manchester in a varied attack, which could bode well for Siddle being included.
Perhaps Wade can make a better contribution if the conditions suit his quick-scoring tempo in the first innings. It’s a dilemma but it’s risky.
Labuschagne can assist with the bowling workload but he was not used much in the first innings last match.
So Siddle or Wade?
This is the last dilemma for consideration before the Old Trafford Test begins.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Turns out your initial impulse on wade was right as was mine bunratty, the tingles were mere nerves. Wade flunked again. Now we will find out if siddle would have made a difference with the ball to relieve starc all be it second innings but he's a tight bowler and loved manchester and the oval for that matter ! he's been unlucky in this series should be averaging 25 fish if fielders took their catches and a few more things went his way. He's a must for the oval for me given the history there unless they go 180 and create a green deck in which case pattinson - both can be changed for wade
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Think I agree with this
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
If they’re discussing cutting Wade I’m 100% certain it’s another batsman they’re considering and not a fast bowler. If Smith gets a good one early we could be rolled
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Well On this point now it looks like the initial thought of siddle over wade may not be too bad. It wasn’t a Paine v Wade debate on this article. Its just the way manchester plays for me historically and the pitch report we got before it started and the need for an extra bowler. Hoping we can get them out in a day tomorrow though and have another quick bat. They need to consider siddle for wade at the oval where runs often flow and maybe dropping warner down the list to get away from the new ball if there are to be no new additions to the squad. The other play is Usi opening instead of harris . Its a tougher call but Usi will be hungry. Cant blame harris for tricky form as much and look forward to him getting starts in australia, as he should never have been selected until 4th test for me given warner got a chance in the 3rd and bancroft got binned. Khawaja is doubling the average of Warner and Harris all be it still not great. Selectors panicked a bit. Without tampering to much it may be a smart move to drop warner down order in any event if he is to play his final test in england, he could take wades place but there will be many views on it. Basically all the openers and wade and to less of an extent head who was critical in the first test win, are not batting well in england on pitches which arent even true green decks. especially heir averages which don’t lie (all under 28, warners is 11 I think) . Arise Sir Steven. Thank you Archer for taking Smith out so Labu could play
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Looks like we didn’t need the extra batsman, so needed discussion indeed , not a bad call on siddle v wade potentially Food for thought for oval. Looks like it needed discussion. Wade failed again on a flat wicket . Lucky we have two amazing english pitch batsman in smith and laba !
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Ussi looking really stiff given the openers at manchester. They should have elevated him to opener
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Well Wade fails yet again, big runs scored at manchester yet again and siddle has a higher batting than wade now or on par for series. In the article I said Siddle took 5 wickets at manchester in 2013 although its a time ago he was vital foil for the pace bowlers and incidently had a blinder at the oval in 2015 with australia’s big win there on a flat deck
Pierro
Roar Rookie
So far , the case for siddle has overpowered the need for Wade. Tomorrow is a key day. Siddle batting average is above wades as well in the series . Surely its the move for the oval given thats usually a run fest. Drop warner down to wades place so he can get away from the new ball given laba and smith are openers It was worth an article thats for sure. Wade fails again and manchester lives up to its first innings totals . hopefully it detoriates day 4 and 5 enough per the historical records in the last decade plus.
Simoc
Guest
What nonsense. The blind trying to lead the blind.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
thats spot on, I'm not sure england have the bowling options though to change the strategy. the only other play is to make it green top and play woakes again.
JamesH
Roar Guru
It depends a bit on the result of this match. If they get a win then I suspect they'll request a road in London. If they still need a win to grab the urn then they can't afford a flat deck.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Pitch is playing to historicals. last 10 years its been pretty consistent actually and thats where I was heading with my article as well. I suspect oval will potentially be even more batting friendly unless england do a u turn on tactics
JamesH
Roar Guru
Definitely a good toss to win. We just need the weather to hold out.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
yes I’m less disappointed as we are batting first. the stats in my article kind of support the way this pitch is so it was worth writing an article on it . theres some confidence that spin will come in via the pitch playing to the historical outcomes yet again. englands opening innings is the key and perhaps rain may play a small part.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
I think my suggestion test two was to elevate khawaja and bring in labs it happened by default with smiths injury (which may save our batting actually in some twisted freakish way with labs coming in as the selectors were not following my lead) Ive felt the same way with carey given these openers are just so poor in england. Khawaja and bancroft were hard done by really. Bancroft could have been dropped end third test as I suggested if warner got a chance there . What it did was thrust harris in too early who didn’t have great pre ashes lead up form in the english games that mattered. The selectors have got jittery too early with khawaja not elevating him to opener and dropping bancroft. Ultimately khawja could open with warner or harris or bancroft . It would free up a new selection place down the order now laba is in and smith is back. that would result in more runs potentially if a guy like carey or maybe even another mid order batsman was tried but preferably a gritty batsman if wade and head are there to make runs. paine is the weak batting link as discussed and won’t be around for much longer given his form but also gets a great opportunity today on this pitch for me Wade well he gets a pitch that should be up his alley today his technique has been awful when the ball moves around outside of the flat wicket 100 . Boy do we need him to make runs and if the three batsmen before him can keep going today he could get the right conditions here . Thats my thought process on the batting order as I can’t see many other options unless you can?
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Im not sure its a balance change when certain batsmen are just not performing . I think the balance change that was wrong was dropping bancroft and khawaja. Before the first test I advocated labaschagne, questioned warner for the series, advocated carey and have said these last two wickets would be batting friendly for an innings at least and possibly even more so at oval. If history tells us anything we need the extra bowler at the oval. Batting first here is huge at manchester it gives wade and paine every chance to make runs from what I’m seeing so far at manchester but thats the way I called it before hand, it also allows the spinners to get more bowling so the toss has been huge for me.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
The pitch does look drier than I expect Old Trafford, so not disappointed in the end.
Josh H
Roar Rookie
I don't disagree but I feel all 4 specialist bowlers are good enough to persevere with without a genuine 5th specialist bowler. Our batting order needs more help. We need all 6 batsmen.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Could comments Zenn. Supports a lot of my thoughts . batting first as Ive commented provides some relief though , providing we can rack up a big total. Wade may be important if the wicket is doing nothing. Had we batted second id be really concerned. Its still an unknown , the first innings without a siddle like bowler is a risk if the aussies don't run through them. The spinners should get plenty in the second innings. The oval traditionally is a run fest for me there Id have an extra seamer. the way its going we could drop an opener for siddle and elevate khawaja up as opener which is what I've also said since the first test actually
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Tim its originally what I said re starc around the first test mark but I hadn't done the manchester stats/history the ground suits him he's often more effective with a back up bowler. The way its going we could drop an opener for siddle , the openers are dire this series. We miss a chris rogers up there