In Round 10, 2014, St George Illawarra lost 36-0 to Parramatta, a result which saw them fall from competition leaders to 13th on the table in the space of six weeks. It was the point of no return for Steve Price.
Price took over the Dragons in the post-Wayne Bennett era, but he couldn’t get the side to fire like the super coach had.
From 2012 to 2014, he was in charge 58 times for 22 wins – a success rate of just 37.9 per cent.
The club didn’t accept prolonged failure then. He was replaced by former player Paul McGregor.
Fast forward to this April, when the Dragons had opened their season with back-to-back losses before winning their next three straight games. That was enough for officials to decide that McGregor deserved a new contract.
Up until that point, ‘Mary’ had won 60 of 118 games – just over half. He’d snuck his side into the top eight in 2015, finished 11th in 2016, ninth in 2017, before rising to seventh last year.
After his new deal, St George Illawarra have won just four of their 18 games – a paltry 22.22 per cent success rate.
Now there’s talk he could lose his job at the end of the year. Madness.
(AAP Image/Michael Chambers)
There have been mumblings all year that the Jack de Belin saga was largely to blame for their season. But given the fact they won four of their opening six games, this is improbable.
In 2019, the Red V have had their lowest possession percentage of all their full seasons under McGregor. In 2015 and 2017 it was over 51 per cent, 2016 was at 49.3 per cent, 2018 was 48.8 per cent, and 2019 is slightly lower at 48.7.
This year is their second-worst for completions over that time, at 76.3 per cent, with only 2016’s 75.4 per cent worse.
They’ve also made fewer line breaks in 2019 than their previous two seasons – 5.1 per game in 2017 and 3.4 in 2018, compared to 3.2 this year.
But most glaring is the field of post-contact metres. In 2015, 2016 and 2017 the Dragons averaged more per game than the competition average. But in 2018, that number dipped below the average. And while the number of post-contact metres has dropped competition-wide in 2019, McGregor’s team have fallen even further.
Tackle breaks also peaked in 2017, at 40.4 per game. In 2018 they were down to 35.8 and have plummeted to 28 in 2019.
Dummy-half running is the lowest it’s ever been under McGregor. In 2016 they made 14.6 runs from dummy half per game but that number fell to 12.5 and 12.3 in 2017 and 2018 respectively. In 2019, it’s down to just 10.
Offloads, which had been a team trait, have dropped by two per game in 2018 and almost another two again this year. Try assists have also fallen over the last two seasons, as have line-break assists.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
There have been increases – but not in good areas. Missed tackles have gone up, as have handling errors. Ineffective tackles and penalties conceded have ever so slightly improved from 2018, but are still notably worse than in 2017.
Given de Belin’s absence is being cited as a major factor for the poor year, it’s only fair to look at his stats.
In 2018, he had four line breaks, 40 tackle breaks, 29 offloads, no try assists, 26 missed tackles, 12 errors, and conceded 16 penalties.
If added to their 2019 stats, his figures do not improve the team’s numbers enough to stop the downward trend.
Now obviously this is a simplistic view, however if a pack brimming with international stars like James Graham, Paul Vaughan, Tyson Frizell, and Korbin and Tariq Sims cannot cover for de Belin’s loss – let alone maintain solid numbers for three years – then there’s a much bigger issue.
Despite the magnificent squad all at the peak of their careers, this team is going backwards. They started heading in that direction before the last off-season.
The problem is a one-dimensional coach who is incapable of adapting and implementing changes to the point his side has become pedestrian. They are now the worst thing a team can be in attack: predictable. Much like the excuses he constantly trots out.
The Dragons should have waited until the end of 2019 to determine what to do with the gaffer. Not one club would have been chasing him in April, so why rush into re-signing him? The writing was on the wall last year, but a finals appearance papered over the cracks.
McGregor is the sixth coach in the joint-venture’s history and has a success rate of 47.4 per cent, which is better than Steve Price (37.9%) and Andrew Farrar (43.3%), but well behind Bennett (65%), David Waite (56.3%) and Nathan Brown (53%).
The Round 24 loss to the Tigers saw Paul McGregor become the St George Illawarra Dragons’ losingest coach in 21 years of existence.
He, and those responsible for extending his tenure as coach, need to be replaced immediately if the club is to turn their fortunes around.
Illawarra Flame
Roar Rookie
It will be interesting to see how 'Mary' goes next year, assuming Shane Flanagan is appointed as assistant, and maybe Phil Gould in some capacity at the club. The Dragons board have I suspect grudgingly admitted privately that McGregor's inexperience at NRL level when appointed in 2014 has finally come back to haunt them. Most successful NRL coaches serve an apprenticeship under at least one experienced senior coach in various roles as part of their development. McGregor had a mediocre record at park football level in the Illawarra before being parachuted into the job following the hapless Steve Price. It may also be pertinent that Wayne Bennett was not interested in having him on his staff in 2009. Unfortunately, a background as a top level player, as Mcgregor was, does not guarantee success as an NRL coach.
Bob C
Guest
Mordac you have zero clue. Widdop has been our best by a country mile.
MORDAC
Roar Rookie
By far the biggest mistake in the history of SGI and maybe St George period was Gareth Widdop! Ben Hunt will do fine next season without having to drag around the dead-weight that was Widdop. Apparently Blake Austin has been killing it in the ESL. Next year when Widdop is partnering him in the halves, I bet his form falls off a cliff.
MORDAC
Roar Rookie
Paul McGregors tenure can best be summed up by the Dragons penultimate game this season and hopefully supercoaches penultimate game as Dragons coach. We have to go back a few years. Dragons attack was just woeful (though defence was quite good). Apparently it was Benji's fault and he was screwing up the game of Widdop. So supercoach got rid of Benji and upgraded Widdop....... Seriously! Among the most ridiculous things I have ever seen in the NRL. Fast forward to the penultimate game this season and the Dragons attack, with Widdop a few games back from injury "rushed back into his favored position" and the Dragons attack looked like it did back when Benji was in the halves with Widdop. This time Hunt was copping the flak. Meanwhile McGregors fall-guy was running rings around the Dragons. Widdop is the most overrated player in the history of the NRL, was relentlessly talked up by the opposition and it seems supercoach took the word of rivals.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
$350K p/a?? I think you'll find Mary is on $600k p/a.
Muzz
Guest
At 350k a season he is cheap. Topline coaches are demanding upwards of 700k a year. The Dragons don't have that sort of budget.
dad1
Roar Rookie
The players also have to take a bit of responsibility here too. They are professionals and as such should have compensated on the field with extra effort instead of just going through the motions. Just part of the problem at the club. I think the "old boys club" jobs for the boys mentality is also a major contributor to the clubs woes. Recruitment needs to be reviewed as well as the coach has not had full say on that matter as did Wayne Bennett when he came to the club so to heap the full blame on the coach is a scapegoat mentality and doesn't solve the root of the problem.Everyone within the club needs to take responsibility !
Maroubra Nos
Guest
The Board is divided. The Coaching staff are divided. The CEO is a useless puppet. McDopey is far from smart, he just has a godfather in the Gordon family. All this division has impacted the players who have taken sides. The Football club is f@#$/^ with a capital F. More players will seek release in 2020 unless major changes occur b4 season start. Put money on a Dragons spoon in 20. The NRL and its media are standing by and watching this self destruction. The Red V had the largest following for any team in Aus and they are lost to League as this total collapse gradually occurs. I for one don't watch any longer.
Soda
Roar Rookie
Marys contract should be taught as a case study at business schools either as an example of really good contract negotiations skills for Mary, or as an example of how not to do it from the clubs side, the latter I feel is more accurate. I can't believe how much money they have given him without any safeguards for performance written in to the contract.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Actually, Mary is expensive. He will cost well over a mill$ to remove and this is one block to his dismissal. As far as keeping him is cheap, not so much. Dragons are losing membership and corporate sponsorship appeal the longer this disaster plays out.
Noosa Duck
Roar Rookie
Ken, I really meant that that they had both played for the Club, admittedly Mary having played more for the Steelers and after Johnston retired.correct ....None the less the fact remains that the club still operates like an exclusive club..... AS for those players you nominate, look at the number of games they have played and you cannot include Leilua as he has been around for a couple of seasons and including Sailor and the other two they have been at the back end of the season. If you look at the Roosters their extended reserve bench would would be gold at most clubs .....then look at the extended reserve bench that Mary has ? As for Debelin, well the Roosters for instance had an English international winger / centre by the name of Ryan Hall who was injured in the pre season (so lets say Debelin was injured) did the Roosters let the wheels fall off? Regardless of the circumstances using DeBelin as an excuse will not wash. But the selections etc I agree 100% Blind Freddy could see that Widdop was not working at Full back .... It truly was weird stuff ...and like you I was defending the bloke up until this year , but there comes a point ....But as I said it's not just Mary there is this monumental problem when a CEO tries to defend a performance like Mc Gregor has given this year ....
Andrew Ferguson
Expert
The Wests Tigers were a tight knit side from 2006-2010. Made the finals once. In the end, it's the coaches job to get players focussed and performing. It's the coaches job to adapt to changing situations and prepare his side accordingly. If De Belin got injured pre season, there's no way we'd see the same sooking about his omission. Blaming the De Belin incident is nothing more than a thinly veiled swipe at the NRL stand down system. It's blame shifting. If De Belin was injured, McGregor as a coach would have adjusted accordingly. But we're being lead to believe that didn't happen here. That's on McGregor's head and not the De Belin saga.
Greg
Roar Pro
This is simply not true
Greg
Roar Pro
Firstly, the Sharks definitely dont have a lesser squad than the Dragons. But how do you then compare a coach being replaced, especially by someone from inside the club who would be familiar with the structures in place rather than an outsider trying to introduce his own style, with a player being accused of rape? As for Manly i think their side is similar to Dragons, strong forward pack but a questionable backline, not really a lesser squad. I can see the link being made to Walker, but even it is hardly the same thing. And it was dealt with by May, not the ongoing saga that the JDB case has been. How does it effect performance? Have you ever heard players talking aboaut enjoying each others company and that being reflected in putting in the effort for each other on the field? A team that is flat in attack and dropping off tackles in defence is exactly what an unhappy team looks like. And that is what the dragons have looked like the majority of the year. That is the most simple view, but it could be much deeper than that. But then again maybe the players couldnt care less, i dont know. I just cant see how anyone could get the best out of his team in that situation. Maybe a better coach could have better managed the off field stuff to the point where it wasnt a distraction. But i highly doubt it and we will never know. I dont think Mary should be immune from critisism and many of the points you and others have brought up i agree with. I wouldnt even argue with him being sacked for consistent mediocre results if i thought the replacement was any better. But we will have to agree to disagree regarding the influence the JDB case has had on the dragons performance.
Muzz
Guest
Agree, The problem is the god dollar.Dragons have no money and Mary is cheap.
KenW
Guest
I think it was a major factor but only because McGregor handled it so badly. Of course he needed to support the player, but having him train full time for the first couple of months of the season and convincing the team he'd be on the field in May immediately after his appeal was a massive blunder. If he'd made the right call and kept De Belin off to the side, it would have been a much smaller factor.
KenW
Guest
I'm also on the Mary must go train but there's a couple of misconceptions in your post: - Mary & Brian Johnston never played together. They were at different clubs but never even played against each other since Johnston retired years before Mary made his debut. - “how many fresh new faces have you see him blood this year? Heaps. I doubt there's any other coach that gets close to the amount of debut jumpers McGregor has awarded over the last few years. This year it was Rawalava, Saab, Sailor, Kerr, Ford - I'm sure I'm missing a couple. Your points about transparency in the club though are spot on - the lack of visibility just feeds the discontentment when things aren't going right, like a terrible non-feedback loop. I'm a fairly recent addition to the 'Mary must go' train. He's had a long run, it's had good bits and bad bits, and there are definite question marks around whether he can manage the team's energy and plans for a full campaign. You can form a decent case around the point that he's had long enough and it's time for a change. For mine though, it's really the events of this year that make it a no-brainer. The De Belin issue was a tough one, he's a top-class player, caused off-season turmoil and was then removed from the roster just before the season. McGregor needed to make the tough call and act as if that decision was final (in the end, it was) rather than pretending with the whole team that it would be sorted out any day and he'd be playing again in 2019. That Mary himself admitted that the failed appeal put the team on tilt was him admitting to a massive error that I don't think he truly understood. Then there's the strange selections. Sticking with his mis-firing centres (and seriously, if he can't get the centres working what's going on?) all year, while continually dropping the wingers outside of them despite them being better performed - some of them being much better candidates for centre in the first place. The chopping and changing of the spine positions constantly. It's not a surprise that the attack was not effective. The one bright spot in the year was some new forwards cementing themselves in Lawrie, Kerr & Leilua. Leilua especially started to do some really good stuff in the 2nd half of the year, he's growing into himself.
Big Daddy
Guest
Every club has their share of mismanagement in relation to resigning player's and coaches. Old uncle Nick runs the club like he runs his business so it's easy to see why they are successful. Trouble is there's not to many capable. A lot of power hungry people with ambitions. You only have to look at Canterbury with Dib and the delmege fiasco at Manly. The board at Parramatta that was sacked. I could go all day.
Andrew Ferguson
Expert
After losing their opening 2 games, Manly spent the rest of the season in the top 8, despite Dylan Walker's off-season saga. Cronulla lost their coach in the late off-season and are in the top 8. Both teams have lesser squads than the Dragons and the Sharks also had a rookie coach in his debut season. You can bet your bottom dollar that I don't buy that whole De Belin saga as an excuse. How does that make you tackle less effectively? Run less often? Hold the ball less capably? It is simply absurd. On the field, there are few Dragons players that you could say were absolutely rubbish. But you can look at their attack and see clearly that they were so one dimensional that scoring points or sustaining pressure was a near impossibility,
Paul
Roar Guru
The Board by all accounts is hopeless as you suggest ND. In a number of ways, it reminds me a lot of the set up Cricket Australia had when David Peever was the Chairman and the Board thought it was the ants pants. It took a major catastrophe, to get rid of him and his minions. I just wonder what it's going to take to rid of this Board and their ability to send a great Club backwards? Maybe the wooden spoon next year?