Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs: NRL qualifying final preview, prediction

The NRL finals get underway this evening with the oldest rivalry in the game, as the Sydney Roosters and South Sydney Rabbitohs do battle for the chance to advance to the preliminary finals.

The book of feuds has already had two thrilling chapters this year, and after playing in the third week of the finals last year, the sides will go at it again in the opening week this year.

While finishing in the top four does buy the right for a second chance, it’s not something that either team will be all that keen to use.

These qualifying finals, especially between two fierce rivals like this, are often some of the toughest games of the year, and it’s hard to get back up the following week off a loss, to take on a winner full of confidence.

At the end of the regular season, the Roosters rolled through to second spot on the ladder, while the Rabbitohs snatched third and a re-match with the tri-colours by beating them last week.

While the Rabbitohs do have the wood over the Roosters this season, winning both games, it’s hard to know what to make of the results, given the first came all the way back in Round 1, and the second was last week when both teams had multiple players out and in the case of the Roosters, nothing to play for given their ladder spot was locked up.

It’s been a weird season for the Rabbitohs. Wins like last week, where they haven’t put in a full 80-minute shift and haven’t looked like world-beaters, have been common practice for the club.

Wayne Bennett’s side have gone on streaks where it looked like they aren’t a top-four side, and while injuries and suspensions have played their part, South Sydney haven’t played at their absolute best since that Round 1 win over the Roosters.

They enter the finals with confidence and form though, having won three straight.

The Roosters, on the other hand, would be topping the table in any other season. While they couldn’t better the super consistent Melbourne Storm, they have finished second and are well on track to go back-to-back.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

While trying to go back-to-back is something that hasn’t been achieved for over two decades and the Roosters level of fitness and fatigue probably needs a week off with a win here, Trent Robertson is proving himself to be a master coach, and on paper, they have one of, if not the strongest 17 in the competition.

Their losses to South Sydney won’t worry them, and even less so given they dominated the first half against the men from Redfern last weekend. Given that loss broke a seven-game winning streak, it may also have been the loss the Roosters simply had to have before knockout footy get underway.

Team news and squads

Sydney Roosters
As I mentioned above, both teams are getting plenty of players back for the first week of the finals.

The big in for the Roosters is Luke Keary, which gives the Roosters a full-strength halves combination for the first time in three weeks, after Cooper Cronk missed their win over the Dragons in Round 24 and Keary missed last week’s clash.

Brett Morris and Mitchell Aubusson also return into the starting 17 for the Roosters, which will provide them with some real finals grunt and experience.

The biggest in potentially though is that of Sio Siua Taukeiaho. At the start of the season, he was among the top five props in the game, and while he has had plenty of injuries to contend with, he is going to be a real menace off the bench for the tri-colours.

1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Joseph Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Luke Keary 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Sam Verrills 10. Isaac Liu 11. Boyd Cordner 12. Mitchell Aubusson 13. Victor Radley
Interchange: 14. Angus Crichton 15. Zane Tetevano 16.Nat Butcher 17. Siosiua Taukeiaho 18. Lindsay Collins 19. Sitili Tupouniua 20. Drew Hutchison 21. Ryan Hall

South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Rabbitohs also welcome back a whole stable of stars. They have, unfortunately, lost Sam Burgess and Dane Gagai for the match, but James Roberts and George Burgess, off a long suspension, headline their returning players.

The role of George Burgess, along with Thomas Burgess is going to be critical without brother Sam, while Dean Britt also makes his return to the interchange bench, in what is a strong rotation unit for Bennett’s side.

They are, with the exception of Slammin’ Sam and Gagai, fairly close to full strength, and given the Roosters are the same, it’s fairly clear why not a whole lot should be taken from last week.

1. Adam Doueihi 2. Alex Johnston 3. James Roberts 4. Campbell Graham 5. Corey Allan 6.Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Junior Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Liam Knight 11. John Sutton 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Cameron Murray
Interchange: 14. Ethan Lowe 15. Dean Britt 16. Thomas Burgess 17. Mark Nicholls 18. George Burgess 19. Bayley Sironen 20. Connor Tracey 21.Mawene Hiroti

Keys to the game

How do the Rabbitohs replace Sam Burgess?
There is no denying just how important Sam Burgess is to the Rabbitohs. While he comes with his fair share of errors and silly penalties, he is the most dangerous forward they have, and one of the most dangerous in the game.

When you compare the Rabbitohs pack to that of the Roosters, there is a sizeable chunk taken out of what would have been a fairly even contest with no Burgess.

(Photo by Will Russell/Getty Images)

While George and Tom do come back for this game, they will have to both set the world on fire if they are going to replace Sam’s output, which has included 800 post contact metres for the season.

I make particular reference to that stat because it’s what draws quick play the balls and allows South Sydney to play the style which they are known for – fast and direct.

That then allows Damien Cook and Cody Walker to go to work, and should, in theory, make them one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the competition.

Outside of Burgess and Cameron Murray though, they have lacked that direct, fast style of footy throughout 2019, and taking Sam away from this game means things are unlikely to get any better.

Murray will have to stand up as the forward pack leader for the Rabbitohs, while others like John Sutton and Junior Tatola must stand up and play out of their skin. While the form of Liam Knight has been impressive in recent weeks, they need a complete effort to go toe-to-toe with the pack of the men from Bondi.

The Roosters centres might hold the key
While Latrell Mitchell takes all the headlines for the Roosters when you think about young centres who are setting the world on fire, the man on the other side of the park, Joseph Manu, has had an equally good season.

Manu broke out in the finals series last year, proving he could hold his own under pressure and play a strong brand of footy.

Whether it’s in attack or defence, Manu makes very few mistakes, runs the ball hard, has a knack of either finding the tryline or getting his teammates there, and is excellent in contact situations on his own goalline.

While we all know what Latrell is capable of, Manu has had 12 try involvements this season, and while he is made to look better by those inside him, there is no question he could go to any other club and be a standout.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Their opposite numbers are in for one hell of a battle to contain them, but South Sydney’s centres are not particularly that far below them.

While the fitness of James Roberts remains up in the air as he returns to the side from an injury lay-off, as long as he is at his best, the fastest man in the game is incredibly hard to stop and will look to exploit his speed advantage whenever he gets the chance.

Campbell Graham is going to have a tough time of it though. Used to defending on the wing, he has been solid, but not amazing since moving to centre. If he can’t get it right in this one, then it could be a field day for the Roosters outside backs.

James Tedesco’s influence will decide the game
When you look at the two fullbacks, there is a substantial gap between James Tedesco and Adam Doueihi.

Credit where it’s due, Doueihi has improved out of sight since he was drafted into the fullback job at Souths, but he isn’t on the same level as the Roosters custodian, who is tracking for a Dally M and fairly obviously being the best player in the game.

His raw numbers for the season are ridiculous, with 15 tries, 13 try assists, 148 tackle breaks, 22 line breaks and an average of 205 metres per contest across 21 games.

But what those numbers won’t show is his safety in defence, under the high ball, and his ability to always be in the right spots to pop up in support play.

He is the most dangerous player in the NRL, and as a fullback, is the best we have seen since Billy Slater.

The Roosters fullback will be a difference-maker during the finals, and his ability to stand up and play nearly perfect matches in big-game scenarios, whether it’s finals or Origin, is second to none.

(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

Prediction

The Rabbitohs aren’t a bad footy team, but it’s been a weird sort of year for them.

I’d expect this to be fairly close for the best part of an hour, with Souths just lacking the punch and execution to get them over the line at the back end of the contest, meaning they have to back up next week.

Roosters by 12.

What you need to know about the game

Date: Friday, September 13
Kick-off: 7:50pm (AEST)
Venue: Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
TV: Live, Fox League 502, Channel 9
Online: Live, Foxtel App, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, 9Now, NRL Digital Pass
Overall record: Played 220, Rabbitohs 114, Roosters 101, drawn 5
Last meeting: Round 25, Rabbitohs 16 defeat Roosters 10
Last five: Roosters 3, Rabbitohs 2
Record in finals: Played 12, Roosters 6, Rabbitohs 6
Record at venue: Played 42, Rabbitohs 23, Roosters 17, drawn 2
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Adam Gee

Don’t forget to join us here on The Roar from 7:30pm (AEST) on Friday evening for our live coverage and highlights of the game.