Desperate for some league articles that don’t revolve around Latrell Mitchell, I’ve decided to have a go at predicting which teams will jump up into this year’s top eight – and at the expense of who.
Looking at recent trends over the past four seasons, five teams have managed to make the finals after qualifying the previous year. I am going to buck this trend and suggest that 2020 will see six of last year’s top eight again fight for premiership glory from the first week of September.
The six teams I predict will remain in the eight are the Roosters, Storm, Raiders, Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles and Broncos.
That sees both the Eels and Sharks having early showers and looking ahead to 2021.
Parramatta is a risky choice seeing as they are heading into this season seemingly well balanced and have improved on last year’s roster with the inclusions of Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Ryan Matterson – albeit at the expense of the equally impressive Manu Ma’u. They also sit fifth in line in betting to be 2020 premiers. I have gone out on a limb here, but my thinking revolves around the Eels struggles to deal with the weight of expectation.
The 2017 season saw them finish the year on a positive note, with many believing they were sitting pretty for a premiership tilt the following year. They had finally obtained a premier halfback who was gelling well with the rest of the team. History tells us that they finished 2018 at the bottom of the ladder, the consensus being Mitchell Moses and Corey Norman didn’t complement each other and the team had failed to replace Semi Radradra.
These issues have since been rectified, but 2021 could come with a new batch of excuses. I don’t expect their fall from grace to be as dramatic as 2018, but they don’t feature in my top eight.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
The other team I see slipping down the ladder is Cronulla. This comes down to roster balance, a problem that plagued them last season. The purchase of Jesse Ramian has only muddied the waters further, with John Morris, Josh Dugan and Bronson Xerri all either playing out of position or showing signs of unrest. Shaun Johnson’s reputation of struggling to close games has also followed him across the Tasman. Their forward pack also doesn’t strike fear into opponents as it did in years past.
If two teams go down, two must go up. My first prediction for 2020 improvers is the team that no-one seems to want to play for, the Wests Tigers. This one might be more of a romantic rather than logical selection, but their consistency coming ninth shows that they have to make only minor adjustments to move up one more spot on the ladder.
My thinking here mostly revolves around the coach and his ability to get the most out of his team. After consecutive seasons finishing ninth, the Tigers trained through last year’s finals series despite not qualifying. It is the first instance in my memory of a team doing that and creates an atmosphere at the club that shows if you want to achieve, you need to put the work in. After two years on the outer, Josh Reynolds and his desire to win may have a positive impact on the squad if he is given the No. 9 jersey.
Ryan Matterson and Latrell Mitchell’s reluctance to play for the club provides more evidence of the battle that lies ahead of them, and they will probably need one or two rookies to play well above their market value for this prediction to come to fruition. In saying that, streaks are made to be broken and it has been a long time between finals drinks for the joint venture club.
I struggled with my second pick from last year’s top eight as I see both the Knights and Cowboys as having finals-quality rosters in 2020. Therefore I have looked at the coaches in making my decision to go with the Novocastrians. Nathan Brown has shown to be a good rebuilding coach but underachieved with the cattle at his disposal last season. Adam O’Brien is highly rated and completed his apprenticeship under Craig Bellamy and Trent Robinson, the two undisputed coaching heavyweights of the last decade.
New ideas are just what the Knights need, and with five State of Origin representatives as well as smart recruitment, with Jayden Brailey and two young guns in Phoenix Crossland and Bradman Best, 2020 is destined to be the year that their horror spell comes to an end.
To finish off I will put 2020’s top eight in finishing order, providing something to look back on at the end of the season.
- Raiders
- Storm
- Roosters
- Sea Eagles
- Knights
- Rabbitohs
- Broncos
- Tigers
nrlfan
Roar Rookie
The bulldogs will be in the top 8 this year, is my prediction. They played incredibly well in some of their games in 2019 and it wasn’t structured play at all. For any bulldogs fans, check out their game against Melbourne in round 4 or 5 and their game against Parra near the end of the season at Bankwest. This year, they have more experience playing together. I really like the balance of the team. Unlike many people, I don’t see Foran as a huge loss. I hope they give Wakeham a chance because he is talented. The other thing i like about the bulldogs is the vibe/mentality/atmosphere amongst the players/coaches. Tehy don’t have stars, there’s a lot of young inexperienced players and I don’t detect a lot of ego, they look like a team that really get along well without the cliques and silly behaviour. The older players they do have are good role models and they’re not egoistic and these guys shape the culture of the club – Josh Jackson, Will Hopoate, Aiden Tolman (these guys are the leaders and their good guys). Then you have younger players like Dallen Walezniak, Faitala Mariner, Sione Katoa, again not alot of ego just good guys. I really believe Sione Katoa will fit in great at the bulldogs both in the way he plays and his personality. Joe Stimson is a good player – underrated in my opinion. Jeremy Marshall King – love his effort Corey Hara weira Nara – one of the best backrower in the game I’m tipping the bulldogs to be in the top 4 after 5 rounds Dean pay is leading them in the right direction
a
Roar Rookie
I’ll say Knights will make the 8 This year and so will Cowboys and Panthers Broncos Sharks and Rabbitohs dropping out
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
Manly were in last place one point behind Norths with one game to go in 1947. Fortunately for Manly they played Norths who were in a rugby union area and were never any good. Easts are also a rugby union area but they have won 14 premierships to Norths 2. Manly could thank God for Norths just like the Dragons were lucky the Titans were worse last year. I’d love to see the Titans win a Grand Final nearly as much as I’d love to see the Dragons winning again. Dragons v Titans, what a grand final that would be.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
I've seen every GF since 1964 and I've never seen anything as unlucky as the Raiders getting a 6 to go signal when they were preparing to kick a field goal to win the game. Hopefully those refs will be dropped and have to work their way back starting as touch judges.
The Phantom Bantam
Guest
The team I can see going backwards this year is Souths. With the retirements of Sam Burgess,George Burgess and John Sutton...668 games of NRL experience , walk out the door and they are replaced by Jai Arrow..next year!! Latrell Mitchell will find it a lot more difficult playing behind a weaker pack It's the old story... forwards build the "platform"...and Souths platform looks rather shakey Cronulla will also miss the hard head of Gallen.....Dugan is on the slide.....he gets injured every other game...while Moylan and Johnsonhardly set the world on fire last year Melbourne look a shell of their former glory...the backline has been decimated and Smith is one year older.....has he stayedone year too long? As for Canberra..did you know that Ricky Stuart teams have lost the last 3 Grand Finals he coached...2003,2004 and 2019... the green machine has added another Pommie....they might have to be renamed the Royals as for the Broncos...can they get over the humiliating thrashing (58-NIL) given to them by Parra?...dont think so The Titans...another wooden spoon...their best player...Arrow is bailing out Wests Tigers...the good players dont want to sign with them the Dogs.....no chance Saints...the coach is a "dead man walkin" Manly...got rid of a class hooker and the replacement probably wont play this year The Knights.....on the slide....Pearce is now an oldie Nth QLD may improve...or else Green will be shafted Penrith...still waiting for Goulds 25 year plan to be finalised .......The Warriors...who can be guaranteed to implode and Easts as 2020 premiers
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Interesting insights Joe. The Storm always seem to have a pretty hefty annual turnover of players but still end up being the benchmark team in terms of performances. Bellamy and the rest of the coaching staff and senior players deserve credit for that. It just seemed surprising that so many wanted out after another minor premiership and you’d think there would be a mood to do better next season given the meek way in which they bowed out in the finals in 2019. Will be interesting to see how Curtis Scott goes. He always seemed dangerous whenever the Raiders played the Storm. Appears to have had some personal issues and a temper given how he reacted to Dylan Walker but the fact that he landed a few on Walker only increases his value for mine.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Chambers time was up. He was barely hanging on to his spot towards the end of last year. Scott has always had issues and I think they weren't going to be paying him the kind of money he wanted. His issue is consistency but I still would have liked him to stay as he could have been Chambers 2.0....aggressive as heck and doesn't back down. Unfortunately his temper can be an issue...still remember Brodie Crofts interview a few years back when he was rooming with Scott and he said that would be his last pick for roommate because if you rubbed him wrong you would likely be thumped, not to mention the Walker incident against Manly. JAC has family issues so understandable and Suli like Koroibete before him is cashing out. Storm will only pay so much for wingers and Union are willing to pay a lot more. The year Koroibete left there was actually far more talent who left than this year so its not something new. Green, Proctor, Koroibete, Hampton, Cheyse, Kennar all left the year after they lost in the GF to the Sharks.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Yeah - from what I've seen he appears to be a running 5/8 type but he may have to play a different role with Jack Wighton having a similar - approach - have to say I'm pretty excited to see how he goes. Sezer was a tough little defender and a solid rather than a great creative half. His try assist stats were way down on what he should have been delivering. G Williams has pretty impressive stats in this department in SL. 61 tries in 179 ESL matches, 21 try assists in 34 matches last year. In comparison Sezer had 7 try assists in 2018 and in 2019 didn't even make the table for those involved with 5 or more try assists.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Yeah.. well I like your Doggies now, not my go-to dislike team anymore. I like their enthusiasm and punching above their weight. I really ho.. ho.. hop ho h o p e they make the 8 this year. (Gosh that was hard..). As long as they start how they finished 2019 and not how they started it, they are in with a real shot. My boys.. only Flanno can possibly drag them out of the bottom 4. Having lost Luciano and dumping Dufty I really can't see where the great attack will come from.
Albo
Roar Rookie
I watch a fair bit of Super League matches, Geoff. Williams is a running 6 , like Wighton without the toughness , defensive qualities or a kicking game , IMHO. Sticky may be able to turn him into ball playing 7 ? I just wouldn’t get over excited about him being your halfback answer at this stage.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
How is George Williams over rated Albo? Have you seen him play? This is one of the great mysteries that we will see unfold. Is George the missing piece of the jigsaw puzzle that sees the Raiders get a long overdue premiership? Or does he fail to deliver. Another one of Ricky's gambles that may or may not deliver.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
The Dogs are my smokies to make the 8.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Something smells down at the Storm. How else can you explain all those players wanting to leave despite being minor premiers? They’ll be in the 8 but can’t seem them competing for a title.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
OK - how were the Raiders lucky last year? Every win they got was hard earned based on great defence.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
I'd have the Eels before the Tigers in the 8. I reckon the Tigers will finish close to bottom. I can only see the Storm, Raiders and Roosters as locks for the 8 - the other 5 spots are up for grabs.
Bezza
Guest
Albo, yes, the Tigers have lost a few but still have a few places to fill in their squad. They also have a million dollars or so to do it with, so I think if Madge chooses wisely, they're in with a chance. I agree Jayden Brailey is a great player and would be a huge asset to any team. I'm not convinced the Knights are the right team for him though. They've bought in some big names over the last couple of years, but it doesn't seem to have changed the team attitude. I think Wayne Bennett got it right when he said, you never knew which team was getting off the bus. But you could be right, only time will tell. We'll all start to get a good indication in 8 weeks. Let the footy begin!
Paul
Roar Guru
thanks Ken. I hope you're right about the spoon.
Bulldog53
Roar Rookie
I agree that stats don't lie, but sometimes the blur the truth. look at this way, if your in the defensive line and you have a big ball playing backrower coming at you, who are you going to number up on? By numbering up on Sutton, that has to open gaps for someone else. It's what they call playing off the ball. Lowe will most likely be playing there this year who is a runner not a ballplayer. defences will be able to keep their shape better as they won't be challenged as much.
KenW
Guest
No spoon for Dragons, 2019 was the annus horribilis. I won't provide a list of excuses, all teams have them - great teams overcome them, but not so great teams can be felled by them which happened to them last year. They'll improve this year, not as contenders perhaps but as a solid middle 8 team, with or without JDB. Incidentally they hold the record for the most years without a spoon - 82 seasons (1938). With honourable mention to the Sea Eagles who have avoided any since their founding 73 seasons ago (1947)
Albo
Roar Rookie
Getting toey now kk ! Only about a month away from the trials and some real sport to get our teeth into !