The top ten AFL draft sliders since 2005

American novelist Erica Jong once wrote: “Everyone has talent. What’s rare is the courage to follow it to the dark places where it leads.”

This line applies to sport, particularly when someone is young and unproven, namely the draft in the AFL.

In the AFL, often the top five draft picks are obvious, but then the next 20 to 30 players are all around the same mark. How does a recruiter or list manager differentiate the talent? Without a crystal ball, how do they ascertain who’s got the brains, the mental strength and the character to convert their talent into reality at the elite level?

Anyone will tell you it’s an imperfect science, largely because it’s so individual. And it is only going to get tougher if the mooted footy department cost-cutting happens.

It’s not rocket science to get a star if you’ve got a top-five pick. But the real genius is finding an elite gem in those next 20 to 30 picks.

I’ve looked back over the past 15 AFL drafts (back to 2005) and penned a list of the top ten draft sliders.

I’m not talking speculative fourth-rounders or upgraded rookies, I’m talking picks ten to 40. They are first or second rounders who’ve gone above and beyond, excluding father-son picks. Let’s just say for clarity, first-round or second-round picks outside the top ten, with a rolling scale on how high they were picked. And I’m using the glorious benefit of hindsight.

10. Jack Riewoldt – pick 13, 2006
There’s a case to be made for both of Richmond’s first two picks in 2006, firstly Tasmanian forward Riewoldt and then under-rated pick 26 Shane Edwards. But Riewoldt’s three Coleman medals, three All Australians and two best-and-fairests give him the edge, having been drafted below Scott Gumbleton (2), Mitch Thorp (6) and Andrejs Everitt (11). There were concerns Riewoldt wasn’t athletic or tall enough to play key forward. He proved them wrong.

9. Luke Shuey – pick 18, 2008
Despite being premiers in 2006, West Coast controversially got a priority pick in 2008, which they used to pick up Victorian on-baller Shuey. The Eagles already got Nic Naitanui (2) in that draft, but 2008 Vic Metro best-and-fairest winner Shuey came in after Chris Yarran (6), Lewis Johnston (12) and Sam Blease (17). Shuey’s AFL career started slowly due to injuries, but he’s since improved to be club captain, a Norm Smith medalist and two-time best-and-fairest winner.

8. Cyril Rioli – pick 12, 2007
There are very few players picked outside the top ten who have made as big an impact as Rioli in their first season in an AFL system, playing every game and kicking two goals in a winning grand final. He was the only NT player in the 2007 under-18 All Australian side but despite high expectations slid outside the top ten on draft day, possibly with clubs questioning his commitment and average skin folds. He showed them, later winning a Norm Smith and three more flags, plus being named All Australian three times.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

7. Alex Rance – pick 18, 2007
The retired 200-gamer was actually a priority pick for the Tigers after they finished dead last in 2007. It was the beginning of their turnaround, grabbing future two-time flag captain Trent Cotchin (2) in that draft too. But Rance’s acquisition was a master stroke, although the ten to 19 selections in the 2007 draft were staggering, including Patrick Dangerfield (10), Cyril Rioli (12), Harry Taylor (17) and Callan Ward (19), but also little-known Patrick Veszpremi (11), who the Swans will regret.

6. Elliot Yeo – pick 30, 2011
In the age of the compromised drafts dominated by GWS and Gold Coast picks, Yeo was a rare gem. Brisbane actually used their third pick – behind Billy Longer (8) and Sam Docherty (12), which was a compensation pick received for Michael Rischitelli’s loss to the Suns – for Yeo, who has since left for West Coast. Yeo only played 27 games for Brisbane but he’s since won a flag with West Coast, plus two best-and-fairests and become a two-time All Australian. West Coast weren’t wise to his talent either, as they got Murray Newman (23) and Fraser McInnes (28) ahead of East Freo product Yeo in 2011 too.

5. Patrick Cripps – pick 13, 2013
He doesn’t have the long list of honours yet – albeit an MVP and two All Australians – but everyone expects this guy to dominate the AFL for the next five years.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Cripps has already been made Carlton skipper and has won the club’s best-and-fairest three times, including in his second AFL season. It’s remarkable to note, he was battling Carlton’s first pick that year, while premiership contenders Collingwood and Richmond went ahead of him but bombed out with Nathan Freeman (10) and Ben Lennon (12) respectively.

4. Patrick Dangerfield – pick 10, 2007
I wasn’t sure whether to include Dangerfield so high, given he was a top ten pick plus he’s since left Adelaide. But you need to remember ahead of Dangerfield were the likes of Cale Morton (4) and Jarrad Grant (5) and Dangerfield has since become a seven-time All Australian. The Dees and Dogs will still be kicking themselves. Fun fact, he actually spent his first year with the Crows living in Victoria, playing for the Geelong Falcons while studying and training with Adelaide sporadically. He’s now a Brownlow winner, MVP winner and four-time best-and-fairest winner once with Adelaide and three times with Geelong.

3. Brodie Grundy – pick 18, 2012
After finishing in the top four, the Pies came into the 2012 draft armed with picks 18, 19 and 20. They’d have to wait their turn, but they got their man Grundy from Sturt with pick 18. Grundy was expected to go to GWS among their top three picks, but he slipped through, having swapped from basketball to footy only two years before the draft, thus not having huge experience. In hindsight, he was the standout from the 2012 brigade, in a top ten that included Jonathan O’Rourke (2), Jimmy Toumpas (4) and Sam Mayes (8). He’s excelled in the past two seasons, winning two Copeland Trophies and earning two All Australian selections.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

2. Max Gawn – pick 34, 2009
Quality ruckmen are not a dime a dozen so the fact that Melbourne’s new captain went in the 30s is amazing. Melbourne actually had four picks before Gawn in that draft, nabbing Tom Scully (1), Jack Trengove (2), Jordan Gysberts (11) and Luke Tapscott (18), who all disappointed at the Dees. Gawn did his ACL in the 2009 TAC Cup leading to his lower selection. It’s worked out for Melbourne, with Gawn being a two-time best-and-fairest winner and three-time All Australian.

1. Nat Fyfe – pick 20, 2009
It’s remarkable to think the two-time Brownlow medalist slid all the way to pick 20, lower than the likes of John Butcher (8) and Kane Lucas (12). He was skinny country kid at draft age but he also kicked six goals in Claremont’s WAFL colts grand final win. Funnily enough, Freo got Anthony Morabito with pick four that year, whose promising career was ruined by four knee recos, so Fyfe is the ultimate consolation. The Dockers skipper has a long list of accolades, including three All Australians (he was the skipper in 2019), two Brownlow, two MVPs and three club best-and-fairests. He is the reigning Brownlow winner and the best player in the comp.

Honourable mentions
Shane Edwards (26, 2006), Todd Goldstein (37, 2006), Callan Ward (19, 2007), Dayne Beams (29, 2008), Mitch Duncan (28, 2009), Jack Darling (26, 2010), Brad Hil (33, 2011), Matt Crouch (23, 2013), Zach Merrett (26, 2013), Josh Dunkley (25, 2015).