While the wooden spoon seems more than likely for the Adelaide Crows as each round goes by, so to do the rumblings of player movement at the club – something Crows fans are accustomed to at a season’s end.
However this time, it will be management calling the shots, not the players.
The club has constantly been bullied and dictated to by players seeking go-home trades, and while some of this has been self-inflicted, the time for change is now as the rebuild gains momentum, with this year’s number 1 pick all but guaranteed.
As it stands, Adelaide will hit the 2020 draft with two first-round picks, two second-round picks, two third-round picks, and one fourth and fifth-round pick. The order for the 0-7 club will be something close to selections 1, 6, 20, 31, 45, 48, 55 and 63.
Management must get ruthless with their players and the list – something never done before by the Crows, who have been eager to keep their supporter base content (only two premierships and a legend like Malcolm Blight could get away with trading Tony Modra).
The list management team will not stand in the way of Brad Crouch seeking a long-term contract elsewhere. Exercising his free agency will allow them to lock in a pick 2 compensation selection.
At 27 years of age, the eldest Crouch offers a career average of just 12 kicks, 14 handballs per game, while a 33-goal return from his 90 games played is less than modest while the competition’s elite average closer to a goal a game.
Brad Crouch of the Crows (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Other alarming stats this season see Crouch ranked third in clangers per game and second in total turnovers. For a potential suitor, positives are third in stoppage clearances and sixth in contested possessions should that be their requirements.
At 27, Rory Laird is also seen as get-able by premiership contending clubs. The two-time All Australian defender has given strong service over his 150-game career, but with a contract expiring in 2021, Laird must question whether he will reach the ultimate with the club should he extend his stay. His performances so far this season mirror that of the team.
In a disappointing 2018 season, Laird managed to win the club’s best and fairest award, averaging 32 disposals and six marks per game. Alarmingly in 2020, his output has been reduced to just 19 disposals and three marks.
A fresh start and one last crack at a flag with a club in the premiership window could suit both parties.
The Crows would seek a selection in the late first or early second round and I am confident that Geelong, also armed with multiple first-round selections due to the Tim Kelly trade to West Coast last year, have made Laird a potential target to replace half back Zach Touhy, who will start the 2021 season at 31 years of age.
Laird is considered a significant upgrade and both clubs have a successful and mutual respect when trading with each other in the past.
Rory Laird of the Crows (Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
Leg speed is a huge concern for the Adelaide midfield, described as slow and having a sameness about it. Matt Crouch’s name is sure to be floated at trade tables come season’s end, along with a flurry of de-listings as the squad gets rebuilt. The entire crop from the 2016 draft have all but failed, with Jordan Gallucci, Myles Poholke, Elliott Himmelberg, Matthew Signorello and Ben Davis playing a combined 51 games in four seasons. All must go.
The direction of the list management and recruiting team will be clear. But will it be ruthless and will they get it right?
The club will seek to trade out two or three players with currency, and combined with Greater Western Sydney’s first-round pick (currently 6), the Crows will reshape their list for the future, building the one that allows them to contend for their third premiership.
Launching into the 2020 draft with potentially picks 1, 2 (B Crouch compensation), 6 (GWS), possible top 12-15 picks for Laird and M Crouch, and 19, will see Adelaide with six picks inside the top 20 – exciting not only for recruiters but the coaching staff and supporter base.
HR
Roar Rookie
It's only tanking when you intend to lose. Adelaide don't exactly have much competition for the wooden spoon at the moment, unlike the race to the bottom in 2007. And if they were going to pick a year to do so, this would be a monumentally poor choice, given the standout pick is an academy player and the rest of the draft is an absolute lottery given the lack of play among the draftees.
HR
Roar Rookie
"Then this club is in more trouble than I thought." The 12 losses in a row didn't clue you in? :laughing:
HR
Roar Rookie
In 2016 and 2017 Walker was voted as the best captain in the comp by the AFLPA, which would suggest that he had the respect of his peers during that period.
Fairsuckofthesav
Roar Rookie
No Walker is still valuable and the Lever reference irrelevant.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I am pleased Chapman is going. The other guy is getting his plank of ebay.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I can't tell you how pleased I am at Chapman going! Anyone got a plank for Fagan?
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Is anyone in the top 25% at the club?
JB
Guest
Good call
Marty
Roar Rookie
Pick 2 for Crouch? The author certainly has a good sense of humour.
The Dosh
Roar Rookie
Based on ability alone Crouch would not attract Pick 2 - rather, it is how compensation works that gives Pick 2
AD
Guest
Yeah, and I just wanted to be clear that Hartigan is not in the top 25% of players at the club :P
JB
Guest
Of course, Melbourne getting pick 3? for Frawley and Hawthorn getting pick 19 for Franklin is farsical. I still think it’s entirely reasonable to believe that Crouch could end up as generating band 1 compensation which is currently pick 2. Whether or not he’s worth that is an entirely different conversation.
Stix
Guest
The AFL make it up as they go along so who knows. They give themselves plenty of room to move on decisions like these. The clubs had huge pushback with compensation picks in the middle of the 1st round. They may even scrap all early picks and just award at the end of the 1st round. eg Couch could net 2x end of round 1 picks, 19 and 20. (a slightly lesser player may be worth a 1st + 2nd round pick). Nearly all clubs want the 1st round un-compromised so this is a better (not perfect) way to do it.
AD
Guest
The problem is also that the bands are so broad, and based on a team's ladder position ie 2 teams with identical (1st round) compensation for identical players could get pick 2 or pick 19 depending on where they finish. You'd think a better way would be to have a formula that produces a result in terms of draft points value, and assign the compensation pick at that point in the draft (obviously still based on net value of free agents lost / gained). That would provide compensation based purely on the player's value, not on the team's position and result in compensation much closer to the player's actual value. As it stands, if Crouch goes then the Crows stand to get 1st round (pick 2 ie overvalues B Crouch), or end of 1st round (pick 19, which is undervaluing him even before you take into account that academy picks etc would probably push that down well into the 20s). I think the most likely result is that it ends up being end of 1st round, the Crows then match and end up negotating a trade for a pick around mid-1st round, or possibly a player instead of a pick.
JB
Guest
I think the point I was trying to make is that Atkins and Hartigan if they chose to leave via free agency that the club may be entitled to compensation. The main benefit of a player being a RFA is the clubs option to match a bid from a rival club. I doubt Adelaide would be overly upset if either player chose to leave. David Mackay is 32 and like Jarod Waite wouldn't attract any compensation if he were to leave and play at another club. Retirement seems more likely.
JB
Guest
People underestimate a players age in regard to the compensation. Looking back a couple of years at the Steven Motlop and Tom Rockcliff moves and compensation awarded, most were surprised that both Geelong and Brisbane were awarded band 2 (end of first round) compensation. In Rockcliff's case his new contract was supposed to be considerably more than Motlop however when their comparative ages were considered in the equation they generated the same level of compensation. Rockcliff was supposed to be very close to band 1 compensation. Rockcliff was 28 (2 years older) when he moved. Brad Crouch is 26 now turning 27 in mid January. A very similar age to Motlop when he moved (only 2 months older), and close to 2 years younger than Rockcliff. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Crouch could be offered a contract of similar size to Rockcliff to move clubs.
Stix
Guest
From the AFL Website: Compensation A club that has a net loss of players transferring to/from other clubs as free agents in one transfer period is entitled to compensation via National Draft picks allocated by the AFL. The compensation formula produces a points rating for players based on: 1. The new contract of the free agent; 2. The age of the free agent. Draft picks are allocated to clubs based on the net total points for free agents lost and gained during the transfer period. Draft picks will be allocated to one of five places: • 1st round • end of 1st round • 2nd round • end of 2nd round • 3rd round In applying the formula, an expert committee reviews the formula outcomes. The committee has the power to recommend alternative outcomes to GM – Football Operations where the formula produces a materially anomalous result.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
The key word here is lucrative, if no one wants him.....well then
JB
Guest
I should stop treating contract info on footywire as correct
AD
Guest
He's not. The only RFA at Adelaide is Brad Crouch. The others (Atkins, Hartigan, Mackay) are unrestricted. https://www.afl.com.au/news/391340/2020-free-agents-unveiled-surprise-giant-restricted