The match between Brisbane and Richmond is seen as a sure thing for Richmond, who have odds of $1.65 to win away at the Gabba.
The specialist reporters and Melbourne-based AFL commentators are all saying Richmond is on track to extend their unbeaten run of wins against the Brisbane Lions to 16 games.
But those same writers have short memories. Remember when the home ground advantage was seen as a huge barrier for visiting teams? And remember when the revenge for finals lost in the previous year meant the whole team lifted, played above their ability and created history?
Richmond will remember the 2018 preliminary final against Collingwood – then the Magpies beat them by 38 points after being beaten easily by the Tigers in home-and-away games earlier in the year despite the reigning premiers coming in as red-hot favourites. Sound familiar?
The inclusions at Brisbane are impressive, with Harris Andrews returning to bolster a balanced Lions defence along with Jarrod Berry to the midfield alongside the almost certain 2020 Brownlow medallist Lauchie Neale. Expect him to have a night that will have the statisticians calling out for a new pencil as he runs rampant against the Tigers.
Expect Hugh McCluggage to have a big night in what will be a big night for Queensland football. Playing at home in front of an expected crowd of 30,000 mostly Brisbane supporters will be a big factor in this game.
This game has plenty of feeling coming in, with Mitch Robinson almost certain to re-engage with Tom Lynch following his descriptive language exchange with him last time around. He was quoted as calling him a “w***ker” last time around. Add in the Tom Lynch off-the-ball hits and the Dylan Grimes diving discussion and we have a simmering feud about to explode.
Yes, a different Brisbane team will be out for revenge this time around, desperate to avenge last year’s finals showing, and desperation wins finals, not any notion of what has happened in the past.
It will be a very close game played with feeling, but do not be surprised the Lions that get over the line with their noses in front.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
And? Other than a loss, they are two different games, two years apart, with a flag in between, draw the parallels for me?
BrightOne
Roar Rookie
no they did not
BrightOne
Roar Rookie
no they did not
BrightOne
Roar Rookie
hmm looks like Brisbane beat Richmond...
The Ghost
Guest
Seriously get off the bandwagon. They beat a Richmond side without Lynch. If we meet them in the grand final, we will pound them. Eat ‘em alive Tigers!
fabian gulino
Roar Rookie
tigers by 2 points.
Larry Longshaft
Roar Rookie
Nah mate nah
Larry Longshaft
Roar Rookie
Yeah, nah. Lions by 4
Gavan Iacono
Roar Rookie
Always thought the PF 2018 loss helped with motivation for 2019 success. Isn't that how good teams bounce back. This game may not pan out as previous encounters did. Past performance and future gains caveat applies. Hopefully the smug rfc fans thinking this is a fait accompli based on past performance will not affect the team that goes onto the ground. Lions are no easy beats, a 50 50 game in fact. Lynch out hurts, no time for complacency Tigers. May I invoke the Russo Japanese War as an example of the hubrous we want to avoid.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Sometimes your article is submitted days in advance. The author wouldn't have known they'd pulled Tom out when he submitted it I'm sure.
Underestimated
Guest
$1.65 is not a sure thing. Favouritism does not equal certainty. And unless Mitch is sitting in the grandstands, I doubt he'll be re-engaging with Lynch at all. Lastly, no one is underestimating the Lions, but Richmond have not lost at the Gabba in years. Hostile crowd or not. Hence the favouritism.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Yeah!....Nah, Tigers by 5 goals plus
fabian gulino
Roar Rookie
richmond will win.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
Not for one second do I believe that Richmond are a shoe in, but "Richmond will remember the 2018 preliminary final against Collingwood". They won a Premiership since then, don't think it comes in to their minds one bit! Everything else you state has merit, but that one...........nah!
Gyfox
Roar Rookie
Excellent review of the game....& also your conclusion