New South Wales only had one week to process their upset loss against Queensland in Game 1.
As expected, the Blues made changes in order to extend this series. Most notably, Cody Walker replaced Luke Keary at five-eighth to partner Nathan Cleary. With Boyd Cordner and Cameron Murray out, Fittler has also opted for a bench full of forwards with no utility player having Nathan Brown, Dale Finucane and Isaah Yeo joining the starting 17.
Meanwhile, Queensland bring in Valentine Holmes replacing an injured AJ Brimson with Dunamis Lui and Moeaki Fotuaika coming in for Coen Hess and Christian Welch.
Which changes will reap the most rewards?
For the Blues, they definitely don’t lack talent, but they were thoroughly outplayed in Game 1 and their mindset did not seem right. New South Wales have to start the game on the front foot and must not let up as Queensland always play to the final whistle.
Coming back to Sydney, the Blues are favourites to win the game. But this just piles on pressure for the Blues and how they respond under adversity will be really telling.
It’s interesting to note that Fittler remains confident in his backline making no changes even though Jack Wighton was unable to match-up with Dane Gagai. If Cody Walker can utilise his running game while linking up with James Tedesco, Clint Gutherson and Josh Addo-Carr, the Blues could certainly cause lots of trouble on the inexperienced edge of Kurt Capewell and Phillip Sami similar to Game 1.
It should be encouraging that the Blues have filled their bench with forwards. The key to the game for Fittler should be to get his forwards to run it straight and hard. They need to simplify their play and be more direct. The Blues made five metres less than the Maroons in terms of average set distance as they tried to run decoys and go sideways too often.
The forwards need to lead the team to opportunistic positions and allow Nathan Cleary to generate repeat sets.
While there will be plenty of discussions of how New South Wales can improve, Queensland are in the luxury position of being able to play carefree. Once again, the expectation is that New South Wales should come out on top but if the Maroons can frustrate the Blues and keep it close, it becomes a mental battle at the end.
Nathan Cleary will need to bounce back after being outplayed in Game 1. When the Blues needed him to calm things down and lead the team he was nowhere to be found.
The constant in this series for over a decade seems to be the consistency in Queensland’s performances. The Blues need to come out with more urgency by matching and even exceeding the intensity and energy of the Maroons. Recent times have shown that an average performance isn’t enough to beat Queensland.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
During 2018 and 2019, it was some of the best football New South Wales had produced to win the series. Expect a high-quality game in Game 2 from both sides especially with the Blues returning to ANZ Stadium.
If Wayne Bennett’s men can weather an early storm by keeping it close in the first 20 minutes, they can try to slow the game down after and make it a grind for the Blues to earn.
The major change of placing Cody Walker as the five-eighth is certainly a high-risk, high-reward decision. He didn’t play particularly well in 2019 but it’s evident that if he is given time, he can terrorise opposing defences.
One could say that bringing in Zac Lomax or Stephen Crichton while Jack Wighton moved to five-eighth was another viable option.
Overall, the talent and skills of the Blues squad aren’t lacking. Where this game will be lost and won is with the effort plays that go unnoticed. If Queensland continue to outwork New South Wales, they will have fully deserved and earned the 2020 State of Origin trophy.
But the Blues will need to dig in and get the Maroons on the back foot. By going heavy with the forward pack, it will hopefully allow the talented backline to flourish with space and time to wreak havoc.
This game will go one of two ways. Either the Blues can defeat the Maroons comfortably or the Maroons will beat the Blues in a close affair. No matter what happens, this should be an amazing game.
Nelson Sing
Roar Guru
Yeah I'm excited to see how Nathan Brown goes. If he can come on and energise the team and get them going forward, that will be a job well done for them.
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Agree Col in Paradise. Reynolds the season's top point scorer and one of this year's best players. Reynolds, Walker and Cook - the most in-form spine in the NRL = when they click nothing stops them.
Nat
Roar Rookie
It's the difference between Sat night and Sunday morning...
Col in Paradise
Roar Rookie
Joey over the last month has said Reynolss should be the half on this years form...Kleary obviously had to go as he was shot at the end of year...Fittler playing Wrighton out of position is also a big mistake......
Col in Paradise
Roar Rookie
The score flattered NSW immensely...and I am a NSWelsh man!
Col in Paradise
Roar Rookie
They should have dropped Cleary and play Reynolds..has improved out of sight this year..controls games..great kicker..tackling improved immensely..and has the combo with Walker and Cook...Cleary seems to choke under pressure
Rob
Guest
LOL. That's the story of NSW getting ahead of themselves.
JGK
Roar Guru
Ha, yes. . Got ahead of myself a bit there. They are still specials.
matth
Roar Guru
Yes but what about on Wednesday night?
Larry1950
Guest
Easy to be an origin guru on the Roar, tip NSW as best team on paper, make excuses post game.
Big Daddy
Guest
Now John's NSW Clayton's Coach has had a change of heart. He got his wish getting rid of Keary but now wants him back and wants Cleary gone. OMG.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
Apologies for the double post, glitch in the matrix last night
Nelson Sing
Roar Guru
Well early on before they got their tries Queensland had opportunities to score early. Even though it was 10-0, QLD didn't let it get worse. But just because the points and results didn't go the way early of QLD they did play better outside of the period NSW scored 2 tries. Over the majority of the game QLD played better than NSW
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
The broncs won in 06 with Shane Perry, albeit with Locky at 6, we won in 14 with Hokko and Grub, so my point is maybe its not so much about the halves, but more about the team, we've got a great team that's won the last two series so maybe just support them and the halves and see how we fare after suncorp in 10 days time :thumbup:
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
That's the issue, who is the right half, the broncs won in 06 with Shane Perry at 7, Locky at 6 was handy for him. What I'm saying is we won in 14 with Hokko and Grub, so maybe just maybe the rest of the team is just as important as the half and maybe they should wear as much of the blame. We've won the last two series with a great team so how about we get behind our halves and start supporting them and realise we have two games to go and a fantastic team. :thumbup:
Hopeless Knights
Roar Rookie
He’s had Teddy, Turbo, Maloney among others dominate. He hasn’t been the best half on the field on any occasion in origin. NSW have also had the better team the last 2 years on paper. Maybe QLD just build better halves or NSW pick the wrong 7s and 6s. All I am stating if you pick the right 7 it will be a long few years for QLD. Who that is I don’t know. Or maybe they’ve picked the wrong team around Cleary the last few years.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
Played 6 won 3 lost 3, 50% win rate. Locky sits at around 53% and with no disrespect to the guy if you pull post 06 out of his stats he's probably sitting under 50%. He's just a kid at the moment, not saying he'll improve massively (and definantly not saying he's in Lockys class) but he's played two series and won two series :thumbup: just trying for some perspective
Hopeless Knights
Roar Rookie
Is Cleary plays mediocre again are we looking at the next Mitchell Pearce? Or will he get numerous chances… He hasn’t played a good origin game to date but happy to eat my words if he does. I think having Cody in the side will bring points and unleash cookie and Teddy
Big Daddy
Guest
Still certain elements of NSWRL still seething about the lost 3-5 seconds. Instead of focusing on what " may have happened" concentrate on next week's match. While there is that type of thinking they have beaten themselves already . NSWRL want a written explanation on why it happened and NRL want a written explanation from NSWRL re the HIA for Cordner. Move on they look for controversy when it's not there.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
I'm not an NRL coach, but the significance absence of creative players (only Jurbo in the pack and essentially Walker in the back) implies a very simple Blues game plan of hit ups, not too much ball spreading and kicks when close. A bit of a low risk, meter eater with lottery. I think this will be relatively easy to defend until the time Walker starts to weave some magic. Backed by - they hope - outstanding defence. I don't think Teddy as Captain is a good call, I anticipate he will try too much to win it on his own, won't be passing and should be predictable which might stifle his effectiveness. I'd have had Jurbo. For Maroons to win they need to keep the pressure on Cleary, be alert when Teddy goes to or near the ruck, kick to the corners again, score when they are close and hope to limit Walker's options. And defend. I'm more confident after the Blues changes, not very imaginative and threatening.