The 2020 All Blacks season started slowly with a draw. Two extraordinary games, including a trashing of the Wallabies, had to sit up and take notice, but recent losses to the Wallabies and Argentina have had us think again.
So far this year they’ve played five games, won twice, lost twice and drawn once.
Their win rate is 40 per cent, the lowest of any All Blacks side. Steve Hansen’s win rate was often above 85 per cent, it’s just that he chose the wrong games to lose.
This is what a good coach does: he comes out with a game plan and picks players who suit it.
But here’s what Ian Foster does: he picks the objectively most brilliant players and then he shuffles around and comes up with a predictable game plan.
Why Foster looked like he had an excellent game plan at the start was because in the two games he’s so far won the Wallabies were not defending well and allowed the All Blacks to play their natural game.
On the other hand, Argentina’s defence on Saturday was rock solid. They were choke tackling, mauling the progress and halting the recycling of quick ball. This style shows up a game plan for what it really is abd how you handle static occasions.
The All Blacks often attack off rucks on static plays with a standard predictable move.
They play a Z sequence of passing. A pass to a three-man screen pod and slide out the back to a distributor from the backline, who then passes to a carrying option.
The All Blacks tried this repeatedly against Argentina. It was often countered, with the Pumas recognising the play some time into the game and constantly shooting in to kill it.
Before the glorious Argentineans did, the most gain-line success the All Blacks had were a couple of inches.
Their static play attack is a gradual retreat as they get hit backwards and backwards each phase.
I did not see a major strike play come off, even on the openside. When they did try, the play was often killed or they erroneously dropped the ball.
They lost the ball with silly, rudimentary errors. Their game plan was just one of constant retreat.
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The problem is that Foster is, as one commenter so intelligently pointed out, a ‘card player’. He has a hand of great players and thus does not invent a proper game plan other than retreating in attack. Instead he just throws the players onto the pitch and lets them do what they do best.
He has been picking players based on general footballing ability – because he might as well given he does not have a proper game plan formed.
Some players are brilliant and should not be dropped – they’re not the problem, rather the poor victims of it. Aaron Smith, Richie Mo’unga, Ardie Savea, Sam Cane, Beauden Barrett and some others. Mo’unga did not have a great game, but he made errors in the few opportunities he had to influence the game and his overall impact was limited by the Foster static attack Z sequence strategy.
Look at their midfield. Jack Goodhue and Anton Lienert-Brown are great players, but should they really opt for them? They are predictable – they either crash the ball up or pass. This is why the 12 and 13 channels had the Pumas shooting in and killing the game without a hint of hesitation.
There’s also another problem: their backfield coverage.
When the opposition have the ball they have a lack of ideas as to how to defend. Consider the first try for the Pumas – on the surface it just looks like creative brilliance from Nicolas Sanchez and a lucky bounce, but there is a shade more to it.
We saw Jordie Barrett out towards the touchline, leaving the centre unguarded. Mo’unga was positioned inwards as a central defensive fullback while Smith was behind the line slightly.
All three players dashed back to cover, but a lucky bounce and a second grubber from Rodrigo Bruni got the ball to the line, where Nicolas Sanchez dived on it to secure a try over the line.
Under Foster the All Blacks have become predictable in attack because they are picking players and then throwing in a game plan that fits them, essentially putting the cart before the horse. Their defensive positioning and backfield coverage has also simply been poor.
This loss to the Pumas unearths a lot of problems under Ian Foster.
Could Ian Foster end up like the disgraced Allister Coetzee, leaving his team after his tenure left them worse off?
Aussieinexile
Roar Rookie
New Zealand need to learn from this, All Blacks are in a dip and will come out stronger. these days back to 2016-2018 etc.. they need to a dose of reality and rebuild from there. They are so used to winning when they loose they are not sure how to deal with it and they need to learn and analyse their errors. Learn from the losses and last 4 years and move on.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
So actually he chose to play the 9 who'd been in the 23 for 5 years, the world's best player at 10 (so back to where half the country thinks he should have been paying all along) and a Barrett who'd been first choice backup lock for 3 years? Not really a B team at all. Just some logical rotation when playing 5 tests in 6 weeks. It was perhaps minor misguided tinkering but it wasn't a B team by any stretch of the imagination. False facts
Pundit
Roar Guru
RM, Aaron Smith, Tuipolutu , and fOSTER pleases the crowd with three barrett s
Pundit
Roar Guru
he is a good 6 if they play him like a 6. He is their best ball carrier so foster doesnt want to 'waste; him doing the thanklesss job at 6
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
It’s was because McKenzie had done a good job and he hadn’t been in the job long enough to stuff it up. He also got lucky with a couple of poor referee decisions that worked on his side
Yep, consistency will be key.
Harry Jones
Expert
Yes. That era is over, vs ARG!
Rhys
Roar Rookie
Nail – head – hit Corne, it’ll be intriguing for sure. It’ll be a good chance for a young Aussie team to test it’s pack against a experienced and bigger forward group more in the mould of an England or South Africa. No doubt we have the ability to match it physically but I hope Rennie can unlock our ability to do that consistently earlier in the sides development starting this weekend because our forwards were hot and cold vs the ABs.
Rhys
Roar Rookie
:laughing: :laughing:
Pundit
Roar Guru
i wont call it form. tHEY lost their cool due to Bok pressure. England didnt have a Plan B
Pundit
Roar Guru
Well, Cheika got the WBs to a WC Final in 2015, i dont know whether it was because of foley(in-form), their backrow of Fardy, Hooper, Pocock, Kurtley Beale, Folau or becasue of his tscticas
Pundit
Roar Guru
that is fine. Of course you need all those elements in a team, but you need someone to command the game. The springboks stuck to the prototype of a manager not a changer and won the world cup. Pollard was perfect-great manager and no-slouch game-changing ability not that they were better Just that they fielded smarter.
Gun Dog
Roar Rookie
They also miss Cron..he was the pack guru..
Gloria
Roar Rookie
Ha, ha. Yeah. Have seen the ABs bounce back many times. But Nicholas Bishop asks exactly the same question in his article today. Don’t think he is being smug either.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
My preference is they struggle to find that elite performance for a second week running and fall just short but recalibrate and lift for another world-beating effort the week after against ABs. I need to acknowledge a specific interest here though
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Statistically, we don't have enough data to make conclusions. Preconceived bias is making the decisions for you
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Less poor selection and more losing both senior playmakers to injury
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Couple of typos there Tooly: Rennie has had an unlucky draw, a good win that flattered the ABs, a poor loss and a flogging. There, fixed it. No need to thank me
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
South Africans and French might argue the toss. He is undoubtedly in discussions for World XV but it's nowhere near as clear cut as it was 2 years back
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Let's be clear, who of the A Team was missing, Phantom?