In 2007 the AFL introduced a rule which has been a bit of a slow burn but become very popular. For the first time, they allowed clubs to complete trades for draft picks only – with no need for a player to be part of the deal.
West Coast and the Western Bulldogs were the first and only teams to take advantage of it that year, the Dogs swapping pick 22 for 35 and 60, with the most notable outcome of the deal being Scott Selwood’s arrival at the Eagles.
It didn’t inspire any further pick swaps the following year, 2008, when the league suffered its least active trade period in history. In fact, a decade passed before pick trades ever got into double digits.
The arrival of GWS in the competition, and the introduction of the league’s newest bid-matching system in 2015 both gave pick swaps a small boost at the time – but what’s really made them take off is the introduction of live draft trading in 2018.
Now clubs have the ability to swap picks right up until the minute they are used in the draft, and it has made them vastly more active when it comes to jostling for the best position therein.
The option of trading into or out of the future has been a big incentive as well. Melbourne for example have traded a future first rounder away in a pick swap three times, including during this year’s trade period.
Many pick swaps are insignificant or uninteresting – minor exchanges for points or position at the back end of the draft which don’t do much to excite the imagination.
But those that do see early selections change hands now capture our attention as much if not more so than the movements of big name players – with Carlton and Adelaide’s infamous Liam Stocker deal being the best example.
The rise of the pick swap is part of a trend that has seen the AFL trade period become increasingly more active and convoluted, particularly following the arrival of the bid-matching system.
Last year we saw draft picks change hands no less than 167 times across the trade period and the draft – a competition record, and one that seems unlikely to be broken in 2020.
Where AFL trade deals were once likely to see a player swapped for a single pick more often than not, nowadays it’s just not a proper AFL trade if it doesn’t involve a swap of future fourth-rounders.
It’s no surprise under those circumstances that we have recently seen a record broken – the most traded draft pick in history.
Pick 70 this year originally started as GWS’ future fourth-rounder and was traded to Adelaide for Sam Jacobs before being sent on to Port Adelaide for Billy Frampton.
The Power gave it to Brisbane in a pick swap at the draft last year and Brisbane traded it to North Melbourne this year in a three-way deal that saw Stefan Martin go to the Bulldogs and Lachie Young the Kangaroos.
North passed it on to Collingwood in the Jaidyn Stephenson deal and they recently dealt it back to Brisbane in a swap of four fourth-rounders which may prove a serious contender for the least consequential trade of all time.
That deal however did make this pick the first one in history to be traded 6 times, separating it from a large pack of selections that have each been traded five times each – most memorably including the Fremantle pick 6 that was involved in deals for Lachie Neale, Jesse Hogan and Steven May and eventually used to draft Ben King.
Pick 70 this year probably won’t prove to be another Ben King – if anything it’ll probably be used to partially match a bid for Reef McInnes or even be passed on entirely – but it certainly has earned an odd place in history, for now.
Jaiden Hunter of WA Black and Logan McDonald of WA Gold. (Photo by Paul Kane/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
2020 hasn’t been as active as the last two years on the pick-swapping front – partly because this year’s draft and its associated live trades are yet to come, but also undoubtedly due to the unique circumstances of this draft.
As drafts draw nearer we typically see clubs more keen to be involved in the early stages, but according to reports must clubs in 2020 are if anything looking to trade out of the upcoming draft – and struggling to find buyers.
The appeal of trading into the future is that it’s generally a good investment – teams will pay big for the chance to use a pick now, as Gold Coast did in last year’s draft swapping this year’s pick 13 for that year’s pick 27.
But this year’s picks are so uncertain (and next year’s draft reportedly so enticing) that the same incentive just isn’t there. The fact the Suns have now traded pick 27 this year for the low return of a future 2021 third-rounder is, at least in part, an indication of that.
So it may well be that we don’t get a blockbuster pick swap on draft night. But if we do, the most likely scenario is that it will involve Collingwood.
The Magpies are known to be willing to trade their 2021 first-round pick, as they’re expecting to match a bid early in the 2021 draft for father-son prospect Nick Daicos and don’t necessarily need to retain it.
But, their situation is made complicated by the need to navigate around a bid for McInnes – who could attract attention as early as Essendon and Adelaide’s picks in the top ten, but could just as easily slip past Collingwood’s early selections at 14 and 16.
One scenario that has been mooted is that the Magpies could trade up, offering say 16 and their future first to Essendon for pick 8, which would essentially guarantee one early selection before McInnes is bid on, and hopefully two.
But it’s a dicey scenario as even then Adelaide could still bid on McInnes with the next pick and see Collingwood effectively give up three first-round picks for one, which can’t be too appealing.
Perhaps the Pies will hold off until after the McInnes matter is dealt with one way or another to trade the selection – or, maybe it won’t move at all, and they will simply have to find a use for it next year instead.
North Melbourne’s pick 2 is the other selection that has been much speculated about, but by all reports the Kangaroos have categorically ruled out trading it and intend to use it at the draft.
Of course, AFL history is littered with events that were categorically ruled out only to happen almost immediately thereafter. I suspect North do use the pick, but never say never.
If any other club is to make a big move on draft night it will certainly come as a curveball. But, we have seen that happen before – and hopefully on Wednesday night we will again.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Yep. They have a pretty good track record over the past 5 or 6 years. They'll choose well.
ScottyJ
Roar Rookie
Or Chapman from West Perth.
Josh
Expert
If the Eagles have a future pick they want to get up I'm sure they could get back in, as there are a few clubs reportedly keen to trade earlyish picks out for future selections. It depends more on what price would be expected and whether the Eagles want to pay it.
Josh
Expert
Clubs trading up the order requires clubs who want to trade down the order, and I don't think there are many if any tbh.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
With all the academy picks and father/son stuff happening everyone knows where most players are heading early on in the draft,takes the excitement out of it,probably explains why not much chatter about it,hope you right about your GF prediction,will wait and see
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Same with our lot. Rossie's rebuild has left Freo needing nothing. Just Academy top ups and a juicy first rounder...perhaps Carroll from East Freo. Freo's best 22 will soon have about 15 under 22 players. See you in the GF.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
we getting Jones through the shonky academy systems and young schofield as father/son which is a legitimate path to AFL,then our list is complete Don :happy:
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
This year would have to be the quietest ever for pre-draft conversation.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Pick 13 in this year's draft may have slid back to 17 as a live pick if 4 kids get bid on before GWS gets on the clock. Besides which, it started as pick 11. This is something both the Suns and the Cats were aware of at the time. GWS further devalued the pick when they demanded it as part of the Jeremy Cameron pick. In fact, Geelong probably wish they'd selected Jeremy Sharp and gone into negotiations for Jeremy Cameron with only 2 first round picks. Similarly, this year's pick 27 could slide 5 to 7 places, though the Suns other 2nd round future trade of 37 for the Blues future 3rd rounder could end up being more valuable than the Cats future 3rd. Actually, 27 and 37 will end up being much closer in value at this draft because of all the picks exhausted between them, but they'll still both be at the back of the 2nd round in positions where the Suns can't use them and would risk getting stuck trying to trade them. In terms of our DVI points, they represent matching bids on future talent and give the Suns the best 2021 draft hand (so far).
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Pick 70 belongs to Brisbane and could become reasonably valuable as it will likely have come in to the late 50s if the Lions actually use 4 selections rather than 3 and if Academy bids don't wipe it out. Similarly, the picks Collingwood has collected in the late 60s will move into the 50s and could potentially all be live if Reef McInness is matched in the first round, although I suspect the Pies have moves to make using a combination of their future picks and getting each of their top picks higher up the order.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
Adelaide really wanted number 2 pick, so maybe a trade with Nth may happen, would have to be a damn good one.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
lol, I have a different look at it and really enjoy the results of trades etc
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
In order to promote competition equalisation and freedom of player movement without descending into the free for all that the NRL finds itself in, the AFL has adopted many of the features of the successful NFL model. The NRL has a chaotic system where players can actually break their contract and leave for a new club midseason, provided it happens before June 30. They allow players under contract to negotiate with other clubs at any time and can break that contract a year in advance, but will often play the rest of the present year knowing they'll be leaving at season's end. If that's the alternative, the current AFL system is fine. The other attractive thing about the trade/draft period is that it keeps the focus on AFL long after the season is finished, with the AFLW now also rating really well to make the brand a 12 month proposition. And with so much invested, the product must generate that kind of interest.
Unicorn
Guest
If Thilthorpe is still on the board at pick 7, the Bombers would take him in a heartbeat.
Footyguy
Guest
Is there chance even the faintest the Eagles could be involved in a pick swap to move up slightly. The main Eagles draft targets would be Zavier Maher Zane Trew if they both slide More realistically our main priority should be getting alec Waterman In a year 2020 that would be a truly heart-warming story so we might need to trade up some picks to secure him Also Tyler Brockman and Lachlan Varnisen are in contention
Footyguy
Guest
Do you think many clubs could trade up the order I think Fremantle could to get Heath Chapman or Denver Granger Barrass Fremantle could offer pick 12, 2021 first Rd round, 2021 2nd round pick for pick 3 Or he's a scenario Riley Tilthrope is still on the draft board at bombers pick 7, Adelaide offer pick 9, pick 40, and a future second rounder to move up the order Because if they can get Tilthrope and McDonald that would be great and realistically they can do that and they are different kind of players anyway
JamesH
Roar Guru
Okay, gotcha. I think getting their two picks in before a bid on McInnes is a stretch though. 16 will end up as 19 at best, with bids on JUH, Campbell and Jones virtually certain to come in the top 15. The smart option, in my completely amateur opinion, would be to try to trade 14 and 16 for a higher 1st (and maybe later pick(s) with it for points), ensuring an elite talent to go with McInnes. Maybe 9 and 40 from Adelaide? Hard to know this far out re Daicos but there’s talk he will be a top 10 selection so a half-decent year could see the Pies need to use their 2021 1st for him. Of course, they could still wait till next year to trade out their first pick for say, a 2022 1st. That seems a smarter approach than trying to anticipate this far out.
Josh
Expert
The way I've worded it is probably a bit confusing, sorry. As Tom has said - the Pies could match McInnes/Daicos bids without using a first-rounder, so the ideal scenario is to use all three first-rounders on open pool players and then match bids for that pair with later picks. They will get those two first-round players regardless so only getting one more with those three picks, while a solid result on the whole, isn't the best they could do.
Tom M
Guest
The idea is that Collinwood don't want to use any of their first rounders' for McInness or Daicos. Essentially being able to land 4 first round talents in two drafts, and one or 2 second rounder's for only 3 first round picks(14, 16, 2021 first).
JamesH
Roar Guru
“But it’s a dicey scenario as even then Adelaide could still bid on McInnes with the next pick and see Collingwood effectively give up three first-round picks for one, which can’t be too appealing.” I’m not sure I follow… If Collingwood do that trade and end up with 8 & 14 then they would get an open selection at 8 and use 14 to match for McInnes, and still get Daicos next year (assuming he nominates them). That’s effectively three first round players for their picks 14, 16 and 2021 1st, not one. If they don’t do the trade and Adelaide bid for McInness then they still use 14 to essentially match, while picking a player at 16(ish) and getting Daicos next year. Still three first round players, except they have pick 16 instead of 8 as their open selection. There’s also a risk that Essendon bids on McInnes at 6, which is even worse because it would blow 16 out well into the 20s. And I have a feeling that’s what Essendon will do. McInnes is a Dons fan and fits the bill as a big, quick inside mid. Probably a moot point though, since it sounds like the Pies aren’t trading with Essendon anyway. They might want to hold onto their 2021 pick until they know for certain they’re getting Daicos.