With the AFL season fast approaching, so comes the influx of conversations between you and your mates about whose team will be better this year.
So, in timely fashion, here is an article just like that but with a few more words. In this series I will share my predictions for the finalists at season’s end and also provide reasoning for each team being in their respective positions. Obviously, the AFL season is nothing if not unpredictable but these are the eight teams I believe will be playing in September, starting with number eight.
8. Carlton Blues
Well, this has been a long time coming for ‘Blue Baggers’ as their team has not appeared in finals since the famous 2013 series. The Blues finished ninth that year but were able to compete as the eighth team due to Essendon being removed from the finals due to the infamous supplements scandal. The Blues were not expected to make a huge impact during the postseason but went on to defeat the fifth-placed Tigers before falling to the reigning premier Swans in the semi-final.
The next five years saw a decline for the Navy Blue, but over the past few years, they have shown signs of building a strong young team ready to take the next step. However, despite showing glimpses of a strong brand of football, the team has never been able to live up to the expectations set by the fans and the media. This year will change all of that.
In the last decade, the Blues have been developing young players into stars of the game such as Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh, all high picks in their respective drafts. Obviously, this development takes plenty of time and while these players have all reached the potential expected of them, there have also been a few surprise packets along the way.
The Blues have not only helped their young guns find their feet in the league, but they’ve also been productive in finding bargains in free agency, recruiting players such as Liam Jones and Nic Newman as strong contributors. By picking up Adam Saad and Zac Williams in the off-season, the Blues have finally snagged the big-name free agents they have been seeking, which is crucial in building a successful side.
Adam Saad. (Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Their defence has slowly progressed into one of the best in the league, led by emerging superstar Jacob Weitering. Since moving to the backline, the former top pick has shined at his defensive post, shutting down the league’s best forwards on a weekly basis. Last season, Weitering took part in 86 contested defensive one-on-one contests, losing only 15.1 per cent, ranking third among players who had attended more than 50 contests.
Topping that list was teammate Liam Jones, who attended 88 and only lost 9.1 per cent. What all of this means is that their shutdown defenders are pretty good. As for rebounding defenders, new recruits Adam Saad and Zac Williams (who admittedly will likely play a midfield role) should have no problem filling any holes there.
The midfield really needs no introduction here. Patrick Cripps is one of the best in the competition at his position, constantly causing opposition teams headaches with his masterful centre clearance work (where he led the league with 3.2 a game) and his ability to hit the scoreboard. His influence is perfectly shown in his consistent high finishes in the Brownlow Medal.
Patrick Cripps. (Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images )
Every inside bull needs an outside runner, and that is what Sam Walsh is to Cripps, but he’s also so much more. Walsh showed no signs of a second-year slouch in 2020, once again averaging over 20 disposals in shortened quarters and using the ball at a very respectable 65 per cent. He will only get better as he puts more games under his belt and will be a key contributor in Carlton’s finals hopes.
There has been the issue of the third midfielder for a while now as Marc Murphy comes to the twilight of his career and is more suited to a half-forward role. However, if the talented Zac Williams can come in and fill the void with a move into the guts, the Blues should have no trouble at all.
The forward line is where the concerns lie. The Blues have the talent down there, that is undisputed, but producing a big enough score on a weekly basis is the issue.
Levi Casboult has some of the best hands in the league above his head, but he lacks the consistency to be a truly dangerous key forward, while Harry McKay has slowly been developing, but is probably two to three years away from becoming a dominant threat inside-50. Eddie Betts provided leadership and spark among the forwards last year but kicked only 13 goals as the sun sets on his career.
The Blues were 11th in points scored last year, and while their defence is impressive, its not impressive enough to carry an entire game style into finals. If the Blues want to lift, it’ll have to come from their scoring.
All this being said, the Blues are finally set to make the jump into finals action. They’ve been patient as their players develop, and they should finally be able to reap the rewards. While I don’t believe they will be a top-four side, they could finish anywhere from sixth to eighth on the ladder after the final round.
David F Ciampa
Guest
There's no way on God's green earth that Levi plays ahead of Gov as a forward. Gov is a dead eye dick and actually understands the game. He's the leader in league for f50 re-entry marks
Jake
Guest
I think the blues have the best list we’ve had I 20 years. The aim should be top 8 minimum this year. Exciting times
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Not sure how you can be so sure given that the season hasn’t even started. Come back to me at the end of the season.
Ash Vulikh
Roar Rookie
Oh mate, I’m sorry. But you’re full of poop. Finishing 12th? They finished 11th without Saad, Williams, Fogarty, and an injured Cripps! :laughing:
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
He will definitely be putting pressure on our best 22. Also great to read that Carlton are finally debt free and have supreme confidence in re-signing Cripps.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
They have such a good backline that they wouldn’t want Saad & Williams - haha.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Col – just had a mate say he was talking to a Carlton VFL team assistant coach who has been helping out at some of the main training sessions and he said Stocker is really impressing.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Yeah they were wrong to award him the Larke Medal in 2018, the Rising Star award 2019, the AFLPA best first-year player award 2019 & the AFLCA best young player award 2020.
Macca
Roar Rookie
"So many players in your list" And we only need a couple to make it.
Macca
Roar Rookie
:laughing: :laughing:
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Only Carlton supporters think Walsh is a generational players. Some think he's not even the best player out of his draft year...
Macca
Roar Rookie
Generation number 1's seem to be coming along every year these days, Walsh, Rowell, JUH. Can't get a game? But again, I am not expecting Stocker to have a break out year, just one of a number of players who have been in the system 3-4 years and are in the prime age to emerge.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
So many players in your list; so many of them are ordinary. As I explained to Macca, Martin changes the structure of their set up - that's why having him there will improve them. The Dogs certainly would not want Saad and Williams; we already have more back flankers than we know what to do with. We will keep the wee man with the laser kicking over the headless chook any day!
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Well I hope so Wass because Carlton have had some easy wins over them the past 2 seasons. So you feel optimistic that 34yo Stef Martin will improve your midfield yet Macca shouldn’t be optimistic about our young players showing improvement or the addition of Saad & Williams will improve the side. I reckon the Bulldogs would love to have Saad & Williams playing for them. Williams will start his career at Carlton playing more midfield than back flank and in my opinion will strengthen Carlton’s midfield. People say he hasn’t played midfield at GWS so why should he be playing there for Carlton. GWS had a very strong midfield so they played Williams back flank. When they had injuries in the 2019 finals they played him in the midfield where he turned out to be one of their best players, so obviously he has some midfield talent along with his pace and great kicking ability. That is the type of player Carlton were looking for to add to their midfield. As Macca said all the Blues need is for some of their younger talent to improve and play consistently good football. Young players like Walsh, Fisher, Setterfield, Williamson, SPS & TDK will definitely be better. All we need is for the young players like Dow, O’Brien, Stocker, Cuningham , Philp, Honey & Cottrell to improve and put pressure on the best 22. Add in players like Marchbank, JSOS & Kennedy who have had interrupted seasons and our depth is much stronger. The player that we definitely need to show improvement is McGovern and obviously get Charlie over his injury problem and back playing.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Well one is a generational number 1 draft pick, and the other can't get a game for Carlton...
Macca
Roar Rookie
A 34 year old ruckman coming off a career worst season and a player with 0 games experience are bringing you excitement and I am overly optimistic because I wouldn’t be surprised if Stocker had a break out year! :laughing:
Macca
Roar Rookie
Fisher is the only exciting one? Interesting. But lets just say only Fisher has a break out year this year after just 8 games last year for an average of 13 touches an 0.8 goals (4 of his 6 came in one game) - what does that do to the side as a whole? Fisher spends more time forward (he is training as a forward), Martin could spend more time in the middle? Carlton averaged 2.5 more inside 50's than their opponent last year but 1.1 fewer scoring shots - a small forward like Fisher having a break out season could improve that.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Look, I'll level with you; I just don't think that the talent that the Blues have coming through is particularly impressive. I see list full of good ordinary players. Zac Fisher is about the only one who's exciting. If it suits you feel free to say whatever you like...I do (although it sometimes gets me into trouble).
Macca
Roar Rookie
Or he could be Jake Riccardi, Isaac Quaynor or Will Day. Making an impact isn’t being the best player on the ground each week it is being better than the player you replaced from last year and allowing others to adapt their role. And if you note I didn’t say he would have a break out year, just that it wouldn’t be unusual for a thrid year player to have one. Another player who I could see having a break out year is Cuningham, if Fogarty, Durdin and Fisher allow him to be released into the middle we could see a lot more games like his Essendon effort this year. Again not saying it will happen just won’t be surprised if it does. FWIW can you still say he will have an immediate impact in his third year?
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
I am. Because bringing Stef Martin will allow them to at least halve the ruck contests around the ground, giving their midfielders a better chance at winning the ball. It will also allow English to rest forward, giving them another tall forward option. I expect JUH to start in the forward pocket; his speed off the mark and hands will allow him to get the ball without having to use too much body while he develops. These two will make their forward line a lot more potent. Bringing in Treloar will give them more pace out of the middle; previously only Bailey Smith was quick. There's still question marks over the backline, but they will now have the option of putting Naughton back. I think, assuming Beveridge players their players in position, that they have a demonstrably better list this year.