Can Michael Hooper stay ahead of the pack in the race to 2023?

When it was first announced in late August 2020, Michael Hooper’s decision to take a six-month sabbatical in Japan looked like a winner all round.

The Wallabies captain had the opportunity to compensate for the loss of earnings which he, along with all other Rugby Australia employees, had suffered as an inevitable result of the COVID-19 pay cut.

His six-month contract with Toyota Verblitz in the first half of 2021 would allow Hooper to recharge his batteries while keeping the doorway to national selection later in the year firmly open.

It would offer the stimulus of a new setting under World Cup-winning coach Steve Hansen, while creating more starting opportunities at number seven for the likes of Carlo Tizzano back at home.

“This is a great opportunity for me to learn in a new rugby environment and develop a different perspective on the game,” Hooper said.

“I’m really excited in the direction of rugby in Australia both at a Super Rugby level and at the Wallabies too under Dave [Rennie]. The Super Rugby AU competition this year has unearthed some really good young talent and they are all keeping me on my toes.”

With the 2021 version of Super Rugby AU now only a few weeks away, the good young talent to which Hooper refers is doing rather more than keeping him on his toes. What started as a calculated gamble with the chips in his favour may well turn out to be more of a shot in the dark, with consequences unknown.

The main reason for this change is the opportunity Hooper’s absence has afforded Fraser McReight to showcase his ability as an openside flanker at the Queensland Reds. It may even have given him the chance to show that he can replace Hooper as an Australian captain of the future.

Fraser MccReight. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

McReight led the excellent 2019 Junior Wallabies side on which so many of the hopes for the 2023 World Cup are pinned. Noah Lolesio, Angus Bell, Harry Wilson and McReight himself have already been fast-tracked into the full Wallabies side, with others like Trevor Hosea, Will Harrison and Mark Nawaqanitawase likely to follow them in fairly short order.

Make no mistake, Fraser McReight represents a serious threat to Michael Hooper’s starting spot at the 2023 Rugby World Cup. He is probably the most serious threat since Michael Cheika decided he was better off playing David Pocock and Hooper together in the back row, rather than making a choice between them.

Their listed heights and weight are almost identical, but McReight still has more room to grow physically into the position. Stats from the 2020 Super Rugby AU season also reveal they have comparable points of strength, which means they will be competing for the same spot, not playing in tandem.

Attack

Defence

The key stats are very similar. On attack, Hooper gets more offloads away successfully but McReight beats the tackler more. Both enjoy a big majority of carries where they are able to set up the tackle situation on their own terms. On defence, both have high work rate. They can occasionally ‘soak’ at the point of impact, but compensate by using their speed to make tackles for loss well behind the gain line.

The biggest single area of difference lies in the ability to compete more consistently on the ground at the post-tackle. Michael Hooper suffered from playing in a NSW defence which did not emphasise turnovers on the deck. The Waratahs’ grand total of 31 turnovers was equalled by the combination of McReight (18) and Liam Wright (13) alone for the Reds.

The watershed moment for McReight, and the Reds’ season as a whole, arrived in the 45-12 thrashing administered by their main provincial rival at the SCG in Round 6 AU.

For that game, Queensland chose a big back-row featuring Wright at number seven and Angus Scott-Young at blindside flanking young number eight Harry Wilson.

The roles within that unit proved to be dysfunctional. Wright was expected to be the main provider in the middle of the lineout despite wearing the number seven jersey, and elsewhere he was to be found close to the tackle ball rather than ranging wider like a true breakaway:

This was a typical early example, and one repeated on too many occasions for comfort. Wright (1) is defending tight on the first forward receiver, Wilson in the red hat (2) is on the short side, while Scott-Young (3), the nominal blindside flanker, is providing the link to the backs further out:

This set-up was duplicated in a variety of different scenarios throughout the first half. The wider the Waratahs moved the point of attack, the more difficult defence became for the Reds:

It’s a kick return shifted left, with Liam Wright furthest away from the ball and Angus Scott-Young struggling to connect with the Reds’ backline in opposition to Michael Hooper.

A similar alignment cost Queensland a third try conceded in only the 24th minute:

Wright is sitting closest the ruck, and Scott-Young is the link to the first back (Hamish Stewart). A couple of phases later, the Waratahs exploited the under-defended short side with ease:

Even when the Reds won turnover ball, they did not have their back row in the right place to make best use of it:

As Jack Maddocks takes the ball to the line, the Reds back row are in their familiar shape with Scott-Young inside Stewart and Wright still as far away from the ball as a true number seven can be:

Hunter Paisami makes a clean break down the sideline after a NSW handling error, but among all of the back-rowers only Hooper is in a position to influence what happens next.

He does it not once, but twice: first tackling Paisami, then reloading to knock Stewart off the ball and win a turnover penalty.

The cure for the Reds’ back-row imbalance was the speed and dexterity of Fraser McReight. On attack against the Force, they could now cover the full width of the field with ease:

McReight starts on the left-hand five-metre line, but in the space of just one play he has run around Harry Wilson and provided the critical inside support for James O’Connor’s offload to score out on the right:

When McReight touches down, all of the Reds back-rowers are on hand:

Against the Rebels in the next round, it became evident that the Reds back-row defence could now comfortably cover 40-50 metres of width, instead of the 15-20 metres against the Tahs:

When the ball is lost in contact, Queensland now had the gold standard of ‘quickest man to the loose ball’:

Moving Liam Wright into the linking space between backs and forwards made that area a strength, not a weakness:

Fraser McReight is a true breakaway forward. He has a skill-set which can deatch from duty in the forwards to link with the backs, and he can double up on his involvements in the finest Hooper-esque style:

Even more importantly for Australia’s World Cup 2023 prospects, he looks like a harder man to remove from the post-tackle contest than the current Wallaby captain, and that bodes well indeed for the long-term future of the number seven position in Australian rugby.

Summary
“Michael is a humble, hardworking, honest Australian who has navigated through the blowtorch of scrutiny with diplomacy and unwavering loyalty. When sporting environments talk about culture, everything we speak about is reflected in him.

“He’s joining a strong high-performance environment which will help his development as a player but also as a person as he continues to explore a life that is not solely measured on a rugby field.”

Those were the comments of Justin Harrison, the RUPA chief executive, when announcing Michael Hooper’s sabbatical. Taken in isolation, they are absolutely right.

In relation to Super Rugby AU 2021, they also represent a positive spin on events. Hooper stands to lose something by taking six months off to play in Japan. That something is his uncontested grip on the Wallabies number seven jersey.

Photo: Steven Markham/Getty Images

Given a full run at the tournament, there is every chance that Fraser McReight of the Reds will push on to the next level of performance.

There is next to no chance of Hooper and McReight being selected in the same back row together. They are too similar as true breakaway forwards, so they will be competing for the same spot.

Both are quick, with game-dominating speed to burn, though McReight may develop more towards the George Smith model than David Pocock or Hooper as he reaches full physical maturity. That would make for an intriguing selection dilemma for Dave Rennie, and crunch time may arrive well before the next World Cup.