Absurdity on the AFLW ladder

By Gordon P Smith / Roar Guru

I am a long-time reader, long-time contributor and long-time absentee from these pages but I am dropping by with some drops of knowledge and thoughts on the fledgling 2021 AFLW season that sits two ninths aged in its remarkable stage of imbalance, a condition that requires some deep diving.

Adelaide’s percentage after two games is a whopping 357.6 per cent. That would have led Fremantle’s 241.9 per cent after two rounds last year, the best percentage at the time. In 2019, North led with a 2-0 percentage of 256.4 per cent (as a new franchise, no less). Carlton had 226.1 per cent to top the 2018 AFLW two rounds in. Adelaide’s opening two wins in the inaugural 2017 season had them atop the ladder at 274.9 per cent, the previous best two-game percentage in AFLW history, which the Crows have obliterated this season with a pair of triple-up wins against the Eagles (56-18) and the Giants (62-15).
In 2021, they are merely third on the ladder, far behind both Brisbane and the Kangaroos.

The North Melbourne Kangaroos have 16 goals to their credit this season, while allowing just two for their opponents. They are yet to give up more than a single goal in a game. They have more behinds than their foes have had total scoring shots, and they have scored more goals than behinds. Their goals outnumber those given up by a ratio of eight to one, unheard of in any AFLW season beyond the first game. Their percentage of 563.2 per cent is unheard of at any point of any previous AFLW season, even after a single game. And yet they’re only second on the ladder right now.

Brisbane have given up one goal this season. Had Courtney Wakefield not won that one-on-one contest near the sticks for Richmond in the second quarter versus Brisbane, they wouldn’t have conceded a goal this season. Their for-and-against totals read like something out of juniors: 106 to 14. They have a percentage of more than 757 per cent after playing full games against two AFLW opponents.

(Chris Hyde/AFL Media/Getty Images)

On Sunday, they will host Collingwood, whose meagre percentage of more than 181 per cent barely rates them sixth in the competition after two games. Adelaide play 2-0 Fremantle, who have scored almost twice their opposition yet find themselves in fifth place and amazingly in danger of falling out of finals position for the moment this weekend.

Had Brisbane’s insane 65-2 rout of the Suns on Sunday been a first-round game rather than in Round 2, the Lions would have ended the week with a percentage of 3250 per cent. And the Suns’ percentage would have been an equally staggering 3.1 per cent. As it is, they could defeat the Magpies by a score of, say, 97 to 13 this weekend and actually lose ground percentage wise on their current 757.1 per cent. For every goal the Pies score, the Lions must come up with 46 points of their own to keep that percentage up.

And it could be so much worse. The Lions have kicked 15.16 this season, meaning that like their male counterparts, finding the bigger sticks has been a bit of an issue that might bite them in a tougher game like this weekend’s promises to be. Had they had even the accuracy of the Kangaroos from the first two games, those 31 scoring shots would have instead been 19.12.126 (instead of 106), and their corresponding percentage would be an even 900 per cent.

On the other end of the scale, the West Coast Eagles have four goals for the season, with a scoring line of 4.8.32 to show for their efforts so far in two losses. Their leading goal scorers at this moment lead the team with one goal apiece. Their current percentage of 40.5 per cent exceeds the 26.5 per cent they began their first season in the women’s league with, but no other team in AFLW history has had a worse two-game percentage outside of their expansion season than West Coast’s current 40.5 per cent, except for the four other teams below them on the ladder at this moment.

No team has ever allowed more points in the first two games of an AFLW season than the 120 allowed by the 0-2 GWS Giants this year, except for the 121 points allowed by the 0-2 Gold Coast Suns this year. The Giants are an awful 35.8 per cent, while the Suns are a more awful 30.6 per cent.

No team has ever scored fewer points in the first two games of an AFLW season than the 28 scored by the 0-2 Richmond Tigers so far in 2021, except for Geelong, who scored 26 last year and broke that record with 25 in their first two games of this season so far. The Tigers have a pathetic percentage of 32.9 per cent, and the Cats have a more pathetic percentage of 21.6 per cent, the lowest ever for two games into an AFLW season. If they were to lose this Friday’s game to the Bulldogs by a score of, let’s say, 69 to 15 in Round 3? That would actually raise their percentage.

So let’s look at the ELO-Following Football ratings for the 14 clubs as of this moment, and use them to make some projections for Round 3. As always, these forecasts are worth precisely what you’ve paid for them, so no promises.

On Friday night, Geelong host the Bulldogs. Geelong actually have the 11th best rating on our chart of 37.4 (where 50 is average), and the Bulldogs wield a rating of 45.4, good for ninth on our chart. Factor in timing and the home advantage with a few fans at GMHBA, and we see the Dogs as just a seven-point favourite against the Cats on Friday. Personally, I don’t think it’ll be quite that close.

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Saturday, we start with Gold Coast at GWS’s ground at Blacktown. With the Giants tenth (43.7, down a lot from two weeks ago) and the Suns 12th (33.0, also down from two weeks back), the charcoal and orange are listed as 15-point favourites at home on the ELO-Following Football ratings. Personally, as long as it beats the nine-to-eight debacle from last season’s opener, I’ll take it.

Next comes the Saints hosting Carlton at RSEA Park. They are two middle-of-the-road clubs right now. With Carlton at 57.5 (sixth place in ratings, down from third) and St Kilda at 50.1 (basically where they started the season in eighth), the Blues are a one-goal favourite on ELO-FF, which feels about right to me, except for the detail I’ve left for the end.

The night closes with a dandy: top-rated North (73.0) visiting Melbourne (59.0) at Casey Fields. The Demons remain in a cluster at the lower end of the finals ranks, starting fourth and now fifth at the moment, and with the home field and some actual bodies allowed in the stands, they should be within 11 of the Kangas on paper. Will they really be able to stay within two goals of the powerhouse Kangas? I think so, with a shot at an upset if the stars align.

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Sunday lines up with a trio of very competitive games on paper, and the opener’s a doozie: Adelaide (64.2) hosting Fremantle (64.5), virtually tied for second on our ELO-FF ratings chart. The home field and travel restrictions give the Crows a four-point rating advantage, and more than that in my mind unless Kiara Bowers goes off as she’s completely capable of doing for the Dockers.

Next, Brisbane (53.8) host Collingwood (59.4) at Hickey Park. I like the Lions here, although our ratings have the Pies as a 2.5-point favourite. And to close the weekend, last and certainly least, our two lowest rated clubs face off as Richmond (27.2) host West Coast (31.8), a game that combines two teams with one total win in their histories. That was an Eagles victory over the Bulldogs in Round 4 last year, where the Bulldogs kicked 3.8 to seal their own fate. It’s hard to see a high-scoring contest here, a fact that favours the Eagles for me. The home field just about nullifies the rating difference, but I’m taking the Eagles by a kick.

So far, the ELO-Following Football ratings have gone 12-2 this season, missing both Carlton losses. That makes me want to change my prediction and pick against the Blues this week, which I hereby do, while continuing to hope and pray for a successful completion to the footy season without loss of life or undue hardship on anybody involved in 2021.

The Crowd Says:

2021-02-14T15:32:12+00:00

American Swan

Guest


The congestion in the women’s game is awful because the women can’t kick as far. There is little danger of a goal being kicked until gets the within 30-35 meters of goal. However, The amount of space inside a 35m arc is about the half the space inside a 50m arc. With 16 players it is too easy clog the space inside 35m. It might ease congestion if they reduced the number of players to something like 12 per side.

2021-02-12T09:43:20+00:00

MarkD

Guest


Umpiring across the board in both the afl and the aflw is abysmal ! Now i harp on about how bad the women's fundamental skills set are but it pales in comparison to the umpires absolute lack of knowledge/applications of the basic rules of the game ! Watched the roos/saints game before the lions/suns game on sunday and just like the mens game was left gobsmacked with some of the rulings . Saw what was ,imo ,an absolute corcker of a tackle by a Norths' player who has hit the Saints player in the mid riff and fully put her on her back and halfway through this most awesome tackle the Saints player has tried to handball the footy only to drop it cold. Whistle blows and ump has pinged the North woman for holding! Seriously holding ! Its like that pesky little rule of incorrect disposal didnt exist or more likely didn't know it existed given how many times players just dropped the ball at any sign of contact. The pack goes up and the ball goes through the hands of the 2 players competing for the mark , clearly touched and lands in the lap of a player who stayed down and she was awarded the mark! The umpiring leaves alot to be desired to say the least and im gonna stop now before i go into a full on rant! Its way to early in the season......ef#%$&%$@ umpires!!!!

2021-02-12T04:08:00+00:00

Pope Paul VII

Roar Rookie


Would it be too rude to play them all tonight? Vic's quarantine record is ordinary and is a fair chance of being extended. Gladys will of course wait until it's appears here in NSW before she shuts the border too late again. She's all about freedom.

2021-02-12T03:27:03+00:00

Macca

Roar Rookie


Thom – show me the figures that demonstrate I am wrong? Have the last 2 offseasons resulted in a net increase in Qld players of 40? (essentially doubling) (Hint only 2 Qld players were taken in this years national draft) You keep playing the man but the facts remain unchallenged.

2021-02-12T03:23:48+00:00

Macca

Roar Rookie


Its only 5 days Pope, they will likely reschedule.

2021-02-12T02:51:06+00:00

Pope Paul VII

Roar Rookie


So what's the story with the Vic lockdown? Are the Melb games off? Can they escape to friendlier climes?

2021-02-12T02:23:57+00:00

Thom Roker

Roar Guru


Unless two whole drafts have changed the data you are correct. Nonsense.

2021-02-12T01:15:09+00:00

WCE

Roar Rookie


Last paragraph is absolutely spot on

2021-02-11T22:09:09+00:00

Macca

Roar Rookie


Keep playing the man rather than the point, it just shows me to be correct. As for my player figures this is from 2019; https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/827203/ Unless the net movement over the past 2 drafts has resulted in a doubling of Queensland and NSW representation my facts are correct.

2021-02-11T22:07:12+00:00

Macca

Roar Rookie


My figures aren't wrong. 2019 there were as below. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/827203/ You will see there were just 41 players from Qld and about 120 from SA & WA - unless there has been a net doubling of QLD players in the system over the last 2 drafts my figures are correct. As for my sample size how would you like me to make it bigger than every game these latest expansion teams have played? It is funny how you claim I am wrong but simply attack the man rather than argue the point, probably because the facts are damning. AFLW fanboys like you can never hear any negative comments about the game, everything has to be fantastic, you can't even allow people to hold the opinion that AFLW is a worthwhile exercise that they fully support while recognising the reality of serious teething problems around the standard of the game due.

2021-02-11T22:06:59+00:00

Pope Paul VII

Roar Rookie


Congestion in the AFL is awful. Seeing all the players in one half is just depressing. It's no wonder the commentators almost explode when they break free. Back to the women, I can't see 2 more players and 20 min quarters + time on doing any harm.

2021-02-11T12:31:14+00:00

Thom Roker

Roar Guru


You are operating on such a small sample size it is ridiculous. And your made up stats are wrong. Queensland produced double the number of players in the AFL draft than the quotient of players in the AFL per Queensland club. It is Victoria that is now producing fewer players than the number of players required per club. Your logic is skew whiff and dated AF.

2021-02-11T11:45:35+00:00

Macca

Roar Rookie


3 of the 4 expansion sides have kicked 10 goals from 24 quarters combined but sure the talent pool is huge. The Eagles have 1 win from 8 games but it’s just a rough start, nothing to do with a lack of talent, the Tigers are yet to win a game but it isn’t a lack of talent in the pool just poor recruiting, the Suns have two wins from 8 games and currently have a percentage of 30, but it can’t be because of a lack of talent because they are from Queensland, while the cats also have just 2 wins from 8 and just 3 goals this year but they are chock full of talent. And FWIW if you applied your player representation to teams in the state logic to the AFL the Suns and Giants would relocate to Adelaide and Perth.

2021-02-11T09:52:27+00:00

RT

Roar Rookie


Oh yes, I have been harping on about the non paying of frees in the mens league too for some time. Applying rules that we have is the most obvious first step to ease congestion. The consequences of not paying frees is just that much worse in lower levels. Not only do we have more congestion than we should, the players are not as skilled (or powerful) at making a good play in that situation.

2021-02-11T09:03:17+00:00

Thom Roker

Roar Guru


It happens in the men’s game too, they simply have longer kicks and more training to work themselves into scoring situations. 16 players doesn’t really help in those situations either, even if it does prevent congestion. The VFL will this year have a 3-12-3 at stoppages, which is being trialled for the AFL. Having 6 players in each 50 means less congestion and should have been brought in to the AFLW this season instead of the “lasso” rule.

2021-02-11T08:58:17+00:00

Thom Roker

Roar Guru


Yeah, the interpretation leaves much to be desired in all forms of the game, but especially in AFLW. In round 1 when the Demons were continually encroaching the protected zone around the mark I was doubting myself that maybe the rule had been taken out of women’s footy, then 3 50m penalties resulting in goals killed the Suns. Per Bec Goddard, they were deserved and the losers paid the price, but it wasn’t consistent at all, which is the frustrating thing. AFLW needs a different set of rules. Nothing drastic and, as you say, just a finer adjudication which allows better footy when the rules are consistently applied.

2021-02-11T07:27:35+00:00

Thom Roker

Roar Guru


Be that as it may, delaying expansion would have only disadvantaged teams like the Suns and Saints even further. In the AFLW, there are more players from Queensland than there are list spots for two Queensland teams. Claiming that there isn't enough talent for the rate of expansion when the competition quality far exceeds all preceding years is spurious at best. I think the West Coast franchise has had a rough start, but the club is too big to fail in the long run, while Richmond's team is probably the only one that really bears out your argument only not for the reasons you put forward (they just bought stars and forgot to nurture a strong VFLW side, plus the club has de-funded them).

2021-02-11T01:00:00+00:00

Macca

Roar Rookie


1 franchise sure but how is the second franchise going? Every fact points to there not being enough talent in the pool to support the rate of expansion that has been conducted.

2021-02-11T00:51:45+00:00

Thom Roker

Roar Guru


This is probably the worst take you’ve taken on AFLW out some pretty poor takes. With Queensland providing 20% of the players, it stands to season that they deserved a franchise.

2021-02-10T23:16:32+00:00

Pope Paul VII

Roar Rookie


Slick passages of play in tight situations, under pressure are becoming more common, which is a great sign. I agree though that they often play on into trouble when there is no need. They also instructed to go up the ground to the action where the ball is bottled up like the men, so they are also ailed by finally breaking clear around the wing or centre but facing 80-90 metres to the goal with no friendlies in front of them. So, inevitably a promising attack peters out around the 50m line.

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