As a footy fan, this week is almost the best part of the season. You can feel the anticipation!
Before the first whistle has blown, anything is possible.
No matter the trial form, right now almost everyone thinks that their team can win the premiership (except perhaps St George Illawarra fans).
As an Eels fan, it usually takes a couple of weeks before I am brought back down to earth with a tremendous thud, but right now I’m still holding onto hope of my club featuring in the first week of October.
Round 1 is always exciting because footy is back, but even more so this year given the disruption we all became accustomed to last year. Many of us couldn’t cheer on our team on in 2020 and that was hard. I’m looking forward to a more normal season and I can’t wait to get back into the stands.
As always, the question for this week is who makes the finals.
Is it just me or does this get harder and harder? It feels like there are always around four teams that are classed as ‘certainties’ with seventh and eighth spot always being hardest to pick.
But it should be hard. It signals how close the competition is and how almost every club is in the hunt.
So here is my 2021 top eight. I’m certain about the top four teams, but after that it becomes a lottery:
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Canberra Raiders
Melbourne Storm
Sydney Roosters
Penrith Panthers
Parramatta Eels
Gold Coast Titans
Newcastle Knights
We talk about premiership windows and Souths are well and truly within theirs.
They came so close to making the grand final last year and with new additions like Josh Mansour, who will help the Bunnies come out of their own end, and Jai Arrow, who is just an exceptionally gifted footballer, the team has only got stronger.
Barring injury to key players like Latrell Mitchell, Adam Reynolds or Cody Walker, I can’t see what will stop them this year. They have the coach, the players and the depth, making them a triple-threat.
The Raiders are another team with incredible depth. Consider that Ryan James may not even make the run-on side and that even with Corey Harawira-Naera and Corey Horsburgh unavailable, that the team has no trouble filling their spots. Even without John Bateman, I still expect Canberra to make the grand final.
I continue to be in awe of the Roosters and the Storm. Both teams will make the top four, despite significant changes to their rosters.
The Chooks’ halves are unsettled, but with the immense talent still at the club, they will still be tough to beat. Victor Radley will remind us why he was such a fundamental part of this team in 2019.
Victor Radley (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Melbourne are a team that fans continue to write off, more so this year without Cameron Smith and without Harry Grant for the opening few rounds.
But under Craig Bellamy, the Victorians will find a way. The incredible thing about them is how well each player knows their role and how strong they look, no matter who is unavailable.
Penrith and Parramatta both make my eight, but at the same time, I can see both teams crumbling.
The Panthers have lost experience and some depth, including James Tamou, Josh Mansour and Zane Tetevano, and this will no doubt impact what is still a young and inexperienced team.
The Eels have been in the mix for the last couple of years but consistently struggle to match it with the top teams. It’s make or break for Brad Arthur this year; either his charges progress to Week 3 of the finals or it may be time to start looking for a new coach. Much of that pressure will rest on the shoulders of Mitchell Moses and Dylan Brown.
The final two spots were difficult.
I picked the Titans because they finished just outside the eight last year and have become much stronger with the signings of Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and David Fifita. It took Justin Holbrook some time to settle his squad last year, but after that they started playing some exciting football. This is their time to make the playoffs.
The Knights just snuck in too, but much of their fortunes will rest on the prospects of Mitchell Pearce, whose contract has just been extended until the end of 2022.
Mitchell Pearce of the Knights (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
As for the teams just missing out?
The next couple of spots on the ladder will be filled by the Wests Tigers, Cronulla Sharks and Brisbane Broncos.
Then we get closer to the bottom.
A team that is causing much debate is the New Zealand Warriors, who are many people’s smoky for the top eight. But with Nathan Brown as a coach, I cannot see how this will happen.
I also expect to see Manly towards the bottom of the ladder, with the Dragons finishing with the wooden spoon.
Now let’s get into the season and see how credible my claims are come September.
josh c
Guest
up up cronulla top eight definitely
josh c
Guest
no
MadgicSH
Roar Rookie
Remember it was Todd Payten the Warriors wanted: Brown was second prize.
MadgicSH
Roar Rookie
Don't underestimate George Williams' brother Sam - he is great!
Choppy
Roar Rookie
He cut out the dead wood. Doing that is always going to tread on toes. The Knights weren't spending any cash during his tenure and the year after he left, were able to make some astute purchases which lifted the team. He lost the dressing room, and that's on him, but once he saw it, he stepped down. It would've been interesting to see how he could have gone had the Knights spent some money to give him a decent squad. The money grubbing Ramien, who signed a contract and 6 weeks later regretted it, was no huge loss. He's a talented player but it was poor form on his part. I'm glad Brown told him to hit the road. Will be interesting to see what he can do with a promising squad at the Warriors.
Noosa Duck
Roar Rookie
Well Mary, do not know about you but my feeling is that your probabilities on the 8 are pretty much as I would have, but this season I think there has been more "possibilities" than any other season for some time. I think it will be a season where the top teams will have to keep winning consistently or one of those "possibilities " could end up in the top 8. I like the mix of youth and experience my Roosters have this year but if Benny gets Souths to click they will be hard to beat.
The Mexican
Roar Rookie
Saints top 8 :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
The Mexican
Roar Rookie
Dream on, it cost you nothing :laughing:
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Good write up and I wish your tips well Mary, for me the premiership will be fought out between Rabbitohs, Raiders and Panthers. I have a feeling Storm may not make the top 4 this year (I know this is a big call, but there are a lot of structural changes in the way they play which they will need to adapt to), similarly the Roosters are going through some major adjustments, mind you both the storm and the roosters are happy using the same “coaching staff” alla Cooper Cronk so these teams fortunes or misfortunes may rise or fall in tandem. Cooper was indeed mentoring the roosters’ halves when they lost to the Rabbitohs 60-8, so we’ll have to see what the Storm do.
Albo
Roar Rookie
I like the Panthers this season after 2020 finals series under their belt. Still all revolves around Cleary . So he needs to stay fit. I think they have good depth to cover most positions and I reckon guys like Crichton , Staines, Kikau & Leniu might really jump out of the ground this year. My top 8 is the same as last season, but in this order : Panthers Souths Raiders Roosters Storm Eels Knights Sharks
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Can't disagree with that Albo - Jack and George are key for the Raiders - and if Hodgson can work with them the prospects are very good. Hodgo overplayed his hand at times last year until he was injured. He then had a lot of the season to see how Jack and George worked with young Starling who was more direct so hopefully he learned something. Hodgson looked very good in the trial against the Roosters. How are you feeling about the Panthers? They've lost a little bit of experience but most of the squad is intact.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
There are 4 or 5 teams that will finish below the Dragons in fact with no expectations on them, I see them making the top 8. Bulldogs, Broncos, Tigers and Cowboys will make up the bottom 4
Albo
Roar Rookie
Geoff there are key players in every team that influence whole performance of that side. I just think the Raiders need both Jack & George W on the field to be any chance. They are as crucial to the Raiders as Cleary & Luai are to the Panthers, Munster & Hughes are to the Storm, and Walker & Reynolds to Souths. Burton & Salmon are in the Panthers NSW Cup as halves back ups , like Sam W & Frawley are for the Raiders, because that is their standard right now, NRL reserves. By the way, I have the Raiders in my top 4 despite my thoughts that they are light on in the backs if injuries strike.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
If anything we are flying under the radar Mary - most pundits have us 4th or 5th with not much prospect of reaching the GF. In terms of media coverage I don't think there have been that many tipping us for the flag. All the talk is about the strength of the Rabbitohs squad, whether the Panthers can avenge last season's GF loss and whether the Storm can overcome the loss of Cam Smith. Happy to sit back in the pack and see what happens when the whips get cracking.
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
Let's see how we go, Geoff! How are you feeling about the Raiders given that there are so many fans putting them in the box seat? Does that make you nervous?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Hi Albo - the Raiders have Sam Williams and Mick Frawley playing in the NSW Cup as back up for the 6 and 7 positions. Pretty solid seasoned back ups who can do the job if required - but you wouldn't want to see Jack or George go down with a season ending injury. Some thought the Raiders would fall over when Hodgson did his ACL but Starling did a wonderful job and helped them get to a prelim final. And they have a host of young unproven backs who have had a handful of games Semi Valemei, Harley Smith-Shields, Seb Kris, Matt Timoko, and Albert Hopoate. Not household names but I'd love to see what they have to offer. The Panthers backs were pretty much unknown a couple of years a go and look at the progress they have made.
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
Agree, Albo. Certainly in terms of backline, I would say this is the space where the Raiders are the most vulnerable. I think most teams in the comp would struggle without their halfback...
Albo
Roar Rookie
The Raiders have two great packs of forwards. But they wouldn't want to lose a halfback ! Their backs look quite limited if they get hit with some injuries.
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
ND, I hope you don't think I have the answers to those questions!! (1) I think that Craig Bellamy is an exceptional coach and that even without the GOAT, they will be successful. Bellamy seems to have a way of making each player perform a role and even with injuries in the past they have found a way through. With Harry Grant coming through, I think the Storm are set as long as Bellamy is coach. (2) Even if they don't click, I think the Roosters have enough quality on the field to score points. Victor Radley's return will have a big impact and take the pressure off the halves in my view. (3) I expect the Bulldogs to improve significantly this year - I'm thinking 10th or 11th? (4) Time will tell - I still question whether the Cowboys have the troops.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
I put my 8 in exactly the same order as you Mary a week or so ago. I consider you a good judge so I hope we are both on the money. I reckon Souths and the Raiders have the best squads in the comp. It will be interesting to see whether the Panthers can reproduce last year's form and whether the Storm and Roosters slip a bit after being in the premiership window for some time. Will be interesting to see how Nathan Brown goes with the Warriors and Dessie with Manly this season. Nathan Brown can assemble a decent squad but has difficulty in getting them to perform. I really don't like the look of the Manly side on paper but they've surprised before with their competitive nature. The loss of Thompson and Fonua Blake is huge and I think Foran's best days are behind him. And I reckon the Dragons will really struggle.