The A-League is 15 match weeks into a season of 23 and the form is clear. In fact, the finals’ participants may already be decided.
Despite the non-believers, Central Coast Mariners are locks for finals play. Macarthur FC and Adelaide United are the same, also defying much pre-season commentary.
Melbourne City may have stumbled on Friday night against Western United, yet look certain to threaten seriously for the 2021 championship, while the two traditional Sydney rivals also looking like semi-final certainties.
It’s highly probable that our end-of-season top six is already in place, especially considering we have passed the mid-point and those clubs on the outside looking in would have to produce some excellent and consistent results to force their way into contention come the final match week in May.
Sadly, in what has been a brilliant season of football that has featured goals galore and stunning climaxes to matches, of those clubs currently sitting outside the top six, Western United and Perth Glory appeared to be the only two with realistic chances of shaking up its makeup.
However, the Glory have been nothing but battlers over the last month and after just one win from their last seven, I am more than happy to add them to a group of five clubs whose collective geese are cooked when it comes to 2021 A-League hopes.
Despite all the talk around the supposed scoring potency of Perth, the men in purple will not be playing finals this season.
Diego Castro (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
That leaves just Western United as the member of the bottom six with any hope of finding their way in.
Further south, Melbourne Victory are officially fried. Your cries of captain obvious are well heard as I type these words. Little confidence, cohesion and class have led to what will go down as the most embarrassing season in the history of the Victory.
One can only hope that some shrewd recruitment and off season moves will see the club return to something even near the standard its fans and all A-League supporters expect.
Newcastle Jets are broke, busted and bereft of the class required to compete at the top domestic level and most pundits stuck a fork in them around the time of the third loss in what has now become a run of six consecutive.
Much of Newcastle’s anguish has been caused by outside forces, yet that does little to alleviate the pain of long-standing fans who will continue to walk should the club remain hamstrung and without the resources required to compete on a fair A-League playing field.
While everyone continues to suggest that Wellington Phoenix are very unlucky, hitting posts as often as nets and looking destined to fire at some point this season, they have won just four matches from 15 and will actually spend the finals convalescing in Wellington.
No doubt they are entertaining at times, yet 2021 A-League finals will be a bridge too far for a club that held so much promise despite the inconvenience of their “home away from home” base in Wollongong.
When someone works out what happened to Brisbane Roar after six weeks of the A-League season could they please send an email and explain it to me.
After looking like world beaters early on and Warren Moon seemingly doing wonders with an ever improving team, Brisbane hit the skids big time and have amassed an embarrassing five points from the last 24 available to them.
Just two of their ten remaining matches are against opposition currently outside the top six, finals are beyond them and the four early wins that set up a season of hope were nothing but an anomaly.
That leaves just Mark Rudan’s men capable of forcing their way in and frankly, that task may also be beyond a team that has been plagued with inconsistency this season.
Despite all the brilliant football, drama and unexpected moments, having the top six potentially set at this stage of the season would be a great disappointment.
Who knows, perhaps the Roar, Glory or Phoenix can defy form and rediscover the magic. With Western United also in the mix, maybe I’ll have egg on my face when a flurry of barn storming runs at the finals create late movement on the ladder.
I doubt it very much and Victory, Newcastle, Wellington, Perth and Brisbane should probably be preparing for 2021/22.
Squizz
Roar Rookie
At the moment City and Mariners look a lock for the six. If Adelaide can win their next two then they will make the third lock for the six. The remaining 3 spots are a toss up. Only WEL, NUJ and MVC can really be counted out. Still possible but they would have to have a dream run and hope too many other teams falter.
Buddy
Roar Rookie
I just watched it. I understand the frustration surrounding calling the game without time added on but his other comment about the a League being full of conflicts of interest is harder to fathom. As for the penalty claim - well that wasn’t really any different from the night before when Kamau got pushed in the back but as he didn’t go down, he wasn’t awarded a penalty (according to the commentary). I’m still not understanding anything about scheduling that is untoward. PG will have a lot of home games in a row due to scheduling but when you turn the clock back and see what effect the lightning border closures in WA had on scheduling and how it affected PG you have to scratch your head and wonder what they could do different? We had long periods where NSW residents couldn’t get into WA without a 14 day quarantine which is impractical for sports trips. Considering there are 6 teams based in NSW that was going to have an enormous impact. Adelaide wasn’t so bad but even that one case that cropped up before Christmas caused chaos - a lockdown and quick change of plans. I was due to visit during that time but suddenly flights were cancelled and we weren’t wanted in the state. I’m not arguing whether states acted in the best interests of the nation as a whole, only that it created a huge amount of uncertainty. In a Non covid season I would be in Adelaide for the game this weekend but the uncertainty created by most states since this time last year just ended with us making a decision to forget away trips this season. We love visiting Adelaide too and lost out on 2 trips last year. We love a beer or,two,in the clever little tailor - tiny place that serves good beer and always find some interesting places to visit. Mind you, I never sit in the corner where visiting fans are allocated - usually find seats somewhere near halfway although it upsets a few locals although we aren’t noisy - but just being there is enough to annoy some!
Adelaide Andy
Roar Rookie
Check out the Richard Garcia press conference, he made reference to the east coast bias. I love it!!
TK
Guest
When have we ever had normal scheduling of one home game then one away game??? Certainly doesn't happen in Brisbane.
jbinnie
Guest
Stu -Using a system that has it's origins in the top leagues of Europe is an extremely difficult thing to do un less of course you have the players with the mental and physical attributes to do the switch successfully. Ange tried to do it with the Socceroos a few years back but results were mixed. Fowler was fully conversant with the "back 3" concept and in my mind tried to set up his Roar team with the players to do so. He partly succeeded as is proven with Roar's defensive record last season but he also experienced difficulties when one of his imports, the Welsh centre forward failed to come up to scratch due to injuries and loss of form. When Fowler left the Den he left a group of players partly convinced they could carry on with the back 3 concept. I say partly for there were certain key positions in the system "empty" after 3 of Fowler's signings left with him to go to India. Warren Moon, a young inexperienced coach, inherited this dilemma, and after a 3 week golden spell when the youngster DWH was scoring goals., the rot began to set in, they weren't conceding many goals but as the system has that as a main aim it becomes more and more critical that the few chances created are taken, this was not happening. The coach is now left with the task of sorting out the thoughts of a 'legend" and this unfortunately has not been done with player after player being tried in attempts to sort the problem. That's football tactics for you Stu, constantly under change requiring constant re-education of fixed ideas. Cheers jb
Adelaide Andy
Roar Rookie
yes they charged me $39.99 and a $10 road toll to cross the bridge. non top 6 related, our NPL team kicks off on sunday and the production line of young talent in adelaide just gets better and better. I'm going to give you a list of the players to watch out for in the next 18 months to either make there united debut or be poached by a league clubs (i think the majority of the squad will make the grade, but these are the really talented ones in my eyes) Ethan Cox (goalkeeper who is challenging delianov and gauci at the moment) defenders Fergus Lynch (16 year old already made the matchday squad this season), Alexandar Popovic, Kane Vidmar (son of tony vidmar), Jean Paul Mbembe midfielders Jonny Yull (15 year old who has already played for the first team this year) & Ethan Alagich (son of richie alagich) our attacking talent is the best in the country. Domenic Costanzo (son of angelo costanzo who blitzed the NPL last season, yet to make first team debut) Musa Toure (15 year old younger brother of the toures) Binyam Kebede, Luka Jovanovic, Nestor Irankunda & Panashe Madanha
Stuart Thomas
Expert
We all agree with that. Did you once have a bad vegan and gluten free muffin and soy latte when you visited the harbour city?
Adelaide Andy
Roar Rookie
in my ideal world when transfer fees are finally introduced, then yes; sydney would be given a fee from city and phoenix for the amount of time they have had the player in there youth ranks for before he was pinched by a rival club. all clubs should be fairly compensated whether that player was in the youth team for 1 year or 4 years
Adelaide Andy
Roar Rookie
no team should be playing that many games in there home state in a row, even in this covid infected season and with several nsw teams. That is one of the reasons why central coast and macarthur (and soon to be sydney, given there schedule to finish the season) have done so well this season. They don't need to jump on an airplane each week (sometimes twice a week), sleep in a different bed, train on a different pitch etc. All these little things add up and if you look at the start of the season; we were getting slaughtered interstate because we were travelling more than other teams. i also wonder if there's any correlation to the amount of injuries we've picked up (6 first team players currently out injured) compared to central coast/macarthur/sydney who have hardly had injuries this season with the constant travel. We've still got to go to nsw twice and melbourne twice before the season is out. There is no way in the world a team should be playing seven matches in a row in there home state, where is the parity in scheduling? like i said imagine if perth played several matches in western australia in a row or we played several in south australia. The east coast mafia would be palpable. bring up sydneys fixture list and ours as an example and you will see what i mean, if you don't believe me. *x files music plays in the background* east coast bias
Stuart Thomas
Expert
Would it not also mean they must have had a considerable run of matches outside NSW at some stage? Seems logical really. If you truly believe that the draw makers sit around and say, "okay, so let's give the champions a good run of matches in Sydney late in the season to help them out", I fear you might also be believing in a few other dangerous world wide conspiracy theories.
Adelaide Andy
Roar Rookie
the point im trying to make, is normally you play 1 game at home one week then you travel away the next week. Sydney have7 games in the same state in a row is laughable (except im not laughing) its almost like the league want to make sure sydney definitely qualify for the 6. I understand the league is made up of lots of NSW teams, but where's the fairness when 1 team plays in there home state for 7 games in a row? People are going to say that wellington havent played at there home in New Zealand, thats true but they've been based in the same state all season and have also benefitted from 'east coast bias' in the fact they have barely travelled interstate. you need to see how this looks like from a non east coast a league fan, im pretty sure perth fans would also feel agrieved with the scheduling this season. Imagine the team with the best home record in the competion (adelaide) playing 7 game in a row in south australia? we would blitz this league the conspiracy is real!
Tekkers
Roar Rookie
Yeah they have seven games in NSW because there are also 5 other teams in NSW plus then their home games. It's not just Sydney same goes for the other NSW clubs.
Stuart Thomas
Expert
No doubt astute analysis JB, but what accounts for the drastic reversal of fortunes? Sometime we see teams gradual fade over 12-18 months due to personal or system changes, but Brisbane did appear to fall off the face of the earth.
Stuart Thomas
Expert
Are you suggesting they have more home games than other teams? That would be the only example of an unlevel playing field.
Stuart Thomas
Expert
But he does have very nice hair.
Stuart Thomas
Expert
Big difference between calling someone ‘amazing’ and suggesting, as you do, that he is useless. I feel he is one of a host of competent coaches if given the right team can get the job done.
Stuart Thomas
Expert
I'd only like to see such a comp if we move to a first past the post championship winner and this knockout format was used as a pre-season comp for the following yet. It would generate great interest and be something different. Pre-season comp trophy and another piece of silverware on offer.
Stuart Thomas
Expert
Rumours were that FOX's interest grew back, particularly after disposing of Rugby. Stan appears to be in the game. Personally, I think we are all guessing and the matches could end up on 10 Peach!
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
This is the problem the few times Castro bothers to defend the commentators go how great he is the other 20 times they dont bother to notice. You dont need creativity with Fornaroli in the team you pass it into him and go forward and rely on him to turn and lay it off.
Grem
Roar Rookie
Come on Stuart - let us know more about the broadcast deal. We won't tell anyone. We're all guessing it's Stan or perhaps Foxtel again. I personally am happy for a summer comp and it does make financial sense but will FA allow that? We have the impression the deal is done but James is too professional to announce this early.