The two lingering questions from an incredible weekend of Super Rugby finals

By Brett McKay / Expert

Finals are always gripping contests, purely by nature of them being the last game of the season and having a trophy at stake.

More than any other game in a season, someone is going home happier than after a normal win and someone is going home hurting more after a loss.

Both Super Rugby finals on Saturday ticked those boxes emphatically. Both finals had their moment in the second half where it looked like the team trailing on the scoreboard was about to make their move.

The Chiefs clawed back to 15-13 down when Damian McKenzie kicked a 59th-minute penalty, but couldn’t go on with from there, as Richie Mo’unga kicked a drop goal and two penalties to close out yet another Crusaders title.

James O’Connor’s 64th-minute penalty drew the Queensland Reds back to within one point, and we all know how that ended from there.

As far as deciders go, both finals had everything. And really, you can’t ask for much more than that.

But despite all this, two questions entered my mind over the weekend and have lingered ever since.

Do we really want to lose the domestic flavour completely in 2022?
A full house in Christchurch was followed by not quite a full house in Brisbane, but still the biggest crowd for an Australian Super Rugby derby match in more than 15 years.

Away from those among the euphoric, heaving atmosphere within Suncorp Stadium, the TV and streaming audience made it the most-watched Super Rugby match on Australian screens since the Reds claimed the 2011 Championship over the Crusaders.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

After a weekend where the feel-good factor for the game practically overflowed in Australia, are we really prepared to give all this up completely?

There is clearly much work being done behind the scenes to establish the way forward for Super Rugby next year on both sides of the Tasman, and certainly all the commentary and the momentum seems to be around an all-in, 12-team trans-Tasman competition comprising the ten existing New Zealand and Australian sides, as well as welcoming Moana Pasifika and the Fijian Drua.

On paper, it’s pretty much what many of us have been dreaming about and calling for, for years.

But is there actually merit in sticking with this year’s model and playing the AU and Aotearoa series within each country, before rolling into the combined Super Rugby trans-Tasman?

I’m sure it will be a major point being considered within Rugby Australia, as they pore over all the information and business cases and provisional NZR approval for the two new teams. The format of the new competition goes hand with considerations about the number of teams, so it would have to be a discussion topic at the moment.

And it’s at this point I’m reminded of the Rugby Australia statement at the time NZR granted its provisional approval to Moana Pasifika and the Fijian Drua:

“As joint participants and administrators in the competition, Rugby Australia looks forward to understanding the outcomes of the next phase in their licence approval,” the RA statement read last month.

“Rugby Australia is excited about the growth of Rugby in the Pacific and is committed to exploring future opportunities in the region, in conjunction with the continued sustainability and success of Australian Rugby and its Super Rugby teams.”

That final point about success and sustainability provides a bit of a hint into RA’s thinking about all this, and as I wrote myself last month, it’s clear RA will go into this whole process comfortable in the knowledge that they can and will make the best decision for Australian rugby.

The ‘feel’ around the game in Australia over this last week would be hard to ignore, and it’s not that hard to see a reluctance to making any decisions about future competitions that would see much of that feeling evaporate.

Timing and length of the competition, of course, could be a deciding factor in any decision.

(Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)

A full home-and-away round of AU matches plus five trans-Tasman rounds and two or three weeks of finals would require 17 or 18 weeks to complete.

A trans-Tasman round-robin plus another round of AU matches and finals would need 18 or 19 weeks, while a trans-Tasman round robin on its own plus two or three weeks of finals would only need 13 or 14 weeks if no byes are included.

There’s a lot to consider, and I don’t know the answer. But it’s great that strong feelings already exist about this.

What if the supposed gap between the Australian and New Zealand teams actually isn’t much at all?
The Australian teams are rightly seeing the trans-Tasman series are the perfect opportunity to benchmark themselves and see where they’re at, but it still feels like there’s a wide expectation that this will be a one-sided competition.

And I think that’s going to result in some egg on some faces.

At the extreme end, we can put the Crusaders ahead of the pack just as we can push the Waratahs off the bottom end. But within the other eight teams, I’m not sure there will be any significant amount of difference.

The Reds, Chiefs and Brumbies are well on par. You could probably try and make an argument for the Blues to join that group, but I obviously won’t be supporting it. And then of the Hurricanes and Highlanders, and the Force and Rebels, I think it’s going to come down to when sides meet and where games are played.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

For example, the Chiefs having to travel to Perth first up certainly improves the Force’s chances. The Rebels will and should fancy their chances against the Blues in Melbourne on Saturday night.

Queensland’s three toughest games – the Crusaders, Chiefs, and Blues – will be played in Brisbane and Townsville over consecutive weeks, making all three games completely different prospects.

No doubt, the other four Australian sides would love another crack at the Waratahs in their current state, but they will also be able to play with the freedom of no expectation whatsoever. Imagine being the first team to lose to the ‘Tahs of 2021?

It’s going to be a fascinating six weeks, without doubt, but I’m not sure the assumption of an all-New Zealand final is anything like the fait accompli that is being suggested in some quarters.

The Crowd Says:

2021-05-12T14:21:57+00:00

Honest Max

Roar Rookie


The players’ concerns are valid for a couple of reasons. As you say, there is risk. Secondly, they already have a deal with NZR for a % of revenue, but the Silverlake deal as it is structured will see the money set aside for player wages to take a 12.5% hit.

2021-05-12T11:48:15+00:00

CW Moss

Roar Rookie


It’s a free market. Let him go.

2021-05-12T10:14:52+00:00

jameswm

Roar Guru


He's played better than the alternatives. Like McDermott.

2021-05-12T07:03:49+00:00

AndyS

Guest


The NRC was far from worthless, but it was a pale imitation of what it should (and IMO needs to) be. I'd never have it as instead of SR though - to me that just defeats the purpose entirely. It needs to be the place where players make the actual progression from amateur to professional, because that is far more complicated than just one day getting a SR contract. The NRC system should encompass all of the state/Union based development systems, from juniors on up, that collectively spit out a player ready for a professional career. The SR contract should only come at the end of that long, local process, once they've proven that they not only have the necessary skills and commitment, but that they can handle a professional environment. So it needs money, and my other point was it doesn't need to be all the money all at once. Start with what they can, but then focus all energies on creating more. That might include looking hard at what they are spending money on and whether it gives as much value, perhaps whether the players should have access to the CBA, and whether there is money being spent by SR that would actually be more appropriately spent at an NRC level. But if they don't try and never look, then it is a certainty that it'll never happen and everyone will keep deluding themselves that teams half filled with developing players can mix it internationally. And the game will keep suffering when they can't.

2021-05-12T06:15:17+00:00

JD Kiwi

Roar Rookie


I think that particular selection was dictated by injury Postie. Clayton said when the team was named that Ah Kuoi was all banged up. He only came on when Brown got injured. Neither are fit to go to Perth and we're having to play a 20yo at lock. Lord is very promising indeed, but Brown has mainly played for us at lock and you wouldn't want to select a rookie against the Crusaders in the final.

2021-05-12T05:25:36+00:00

ScottD

Roar Guru


Yes, I agree Andy. A fully professional and funded NRC would cost more than $5-8m. The current (or previous) NRC provided players about $5k each to participate (so I am informed) and so was actually relatively cheap. I will be interested in knowing the cost of the current SR Au competition this year and of course the cost of the TT competition. I am sure at the end of this year there will be sufficient data on the table for RA to be able to craft a simple structure that works. I am hopeful that it includes some form of NRC but I seriously doubt from a financial perspective whether it is possible to have both SR of any form and a NRC that is anything but amateur (or on similar cost base to the previous NRC). On your other comment on having only the NRC, I guess that RA will have a better on finances at the end of the year. I’d like to think otherwise but I doubt that those finances will be so good that they will be able to even consider replacing SRAu/TT with an Australian NRC (8 team) fully professional competition. I doubt they would get sufficient revenue from it and obviously it would cost much more than this years SRAu. But you never know ????

2021-05-12T04:17:33+00:00


Just not much quality rugby being played.... :laughing: :laughing:

2021-05-12T04:14:58+00:00

potsie

Guest


Don't worry. The Chief's have been acclimatising to those sorts of times. They're normally just hitting the upper floors of the hotel about then.

2021-05-12T03:59:30+00:00

potsie

Guest


What about a tournament vs tournament competition instead of individual teams - one game for each team (or a best of 3 if you want more tv content). Trans-tasman 1st v 1st, 2nd v 2nd, 3rd v 3rd etc. 5 points for the winner of 1v1, 4 points for 2v2, 3 for 3v3, 2, 1 etc. Country with the highest points tally wins the competition.

2021-05-12T03:52:03+00:00

potsie

Guest


I'm more worried about these teams becoming a burden than who "has them". If you look at NZ and Australian super rugby teams and how fast players turn over due to be recruited to Europe, Japan, America, there is about 100% turnover (i.e. about 50 players per team lost) in each 5 year period. Now try to name 50 high level players to come out of Samoa and Tonga over the last 5 years. From Samoa it is difficult to think of even one, Tonga likewise. If you extend that to 10 years then there are a handful - Tupou, Frizzell, Fakatava and there are a small number (mostly former Sevens players) that play in Europe, a few more in the Europe Div 2 leagues and maybe 30 or so in Japan. Even if you can stop the leakage to Japan (which you can't because the go young for scholarships at High School and University), you have nowhere near enough players to make up a Super Rugby team roster. Even Fiji, which is a much bigger country, and which produces world class players, have almost no depth. The top 23 come close to beating the Wallabies but change 7 players and they lose to Uruguay. Top team convincingly beats a semi-pro NZ Maori team but change a few players a NZ Maori wipe them up. And their best players are embedded in France and elsewhere and won't be easy to get back or keep. How do these teams become competitive beyond the first burst of enthusiasm?

2021-05-12T02:23:34+00:00

potsie

Guest


They were in the game but I think they lost it before they ran on the field. Even though Sowakula played the best game of his life the week before against the Blues, is that a good reason to depower your scrum, depower your lineout and make one of you best ball carriers (Jacobson) redundant as a runner because you now have too many close in ball carriers. They gained nothing and lost a lot by starting Sowakula - and this is no slur on him, he's a good player - just that they messed up the strengths, balance and combinations that had been working for them. They lost because of selection error.

2021-05-12T02:20:09+00:00


True but when Laumape signs a NH deal for a "almost 7 figure sum" then what does NZ and Aus do to compete?

2021-05-12T02:16:20+00:00


hah merts is yours to keep lol... Why do you consider Twiggy's mining money different to other PE investors money? I can assure you Twiggy doesnt do things without some major control. Mind you I think some major control will help Aus rugby as RA cant run it...

2021-05-12T02:14:50+00:00

potsie

Guest


Yep, revenue not profits. They are effectively buying a low risk financial instrument with a 7% rate (and a chance to increase this) at a time when bond rates are typically below 3%. Ultimately whether it is a good deal for rugby depends of major revenue growth. If revenue stays the same, it is a pretty good return on investment to Silver Lake at about 7% but is a disaster for NZR who will be paying out $25 million p.a. when they are already making a loss. If they grow revenue (assuming limited accompanying costs - of which there will be as players also have a right to revenue) by 40-70%, then good for Silver Lake, fairly neutral for NZR. If they grow revenue by 200% then good for all. Those are quite ambitious targets before it becomes positive for NZR especially as only about $40million is going into the commercial company that will be tasked with growing revenue - that is going to reduce options like owning their own streaming platforms as some of the American sports and some of the major soccer teams rely on to reach a broader audience. The Players' Association are probably right in expressing concerns about the deal being high risk.

2021-05-12T02:13:48+00:00

CW Moss

Roar Rookie


And I’d be very wary of PE using a Trojan Horse approach to moving to 50% and control of your beloved game and turning on the short term administrators who sold your most precious asset. Seriously Jacko my mum was born in Palmerston North and I get it. Don’t sell any of it. It belongs to the people. Don’t trust a Silicon Valley investment bank; come on.

2021-05-12T02:09:48+00:00

CW Moss

Roar Rookie


Well mate I live in Nsw and am hoping the Ws surprise everyone but I’d back the Brumbies who are so structured and reliable and the Force Barbarians for an upset. That said I wouldn’t be surprised if the Reds beat the Crusaders at Suncorp but have an overall disappointing series.

2021-05-12T02:05:58+00:00

CW Moss

Roar Rookie


Yes Mate. Rugby is the top end of town game. There’s loads of money in Australia including WA mining money which is Uk and RSA expats plus Tiggy backing the Force. Ex pat kiwis can’t resist it. Merts is our favourite son now.

2021-05-12T01:50:58+00:00

potsie

Guest


Best solution is to play TT games as pre-season games in place of the domestic pre-season games. If it is last, you are eating the steak before the abuse bouche. Both countries develop their own domestic competitions. NZ could support 8-10 pro teams if they take the NPC amateur and perhaps make the game more aerobic so as to reduce the size of players a bit and therefore reduce injury rates, reduce the subs benches to 3 or 4 players meaning teams would only needs squads of 30 instead of 50. Australia could build a similar number of teams over time as the domestic recovery continues without being burdened by playing NZ teams so often. Fiji could choose which competition they want to play in. Pasifika team would reside in whichever country is supplying the players. The Islands don't produce anywhere enough players to provide a competitive team at the moment and virtually all the good players they do produce are at high school or university in Japan. Maybe the best place for a Pasifika team is in the new Japanese competition (although that won't happen - Japan is far too nationalistic). Then all the domestic competitions lead into a Champions Cup. A 10 team TT (or 2 x 5 team competitions) ruins the opportunity for a good champion's cup as the levels would be too different to the teams that would qualify from other countries' full domestic leagues so NZ needs to dilute and in time Australia also in order to bring in Japan, US, Canada, maybe South Africa, Argentina and others.

2021-05-12T01:03:14+00:00

Steve 50

Roar Rookie


You don’t get it. I’m saying a new comp be called nrc replacing the name super rugby and Oz teams only

2021-05-12T00:59:35+00:00

It make sense

Guest


Ok The hooker and Anstee have a case to be included but i don`t rate 35 year old Timani he has poor hands and he failed bigtime 7 ago years after being given so many chances, ( 18 tests) Robertson seems better but i can never forget how folded like a deck chair when he played test ( 20 of them) Toomua was horrendous in 2021 the second worst 10 of all the franchises.You cannot reward shocking form with a test jersey. He is also way past his best which was 2013-2016.

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