I could argue that during the course of the inaugural World Test Championship (WTC), the weather outdid England, Australia’s abandoned tour of South Africa obstructed their path to the final, the points system was flawed, NZ are yet to prove their mettle away from home, or that India prepared poor wickets against England.
But the very fact that these topics have dominated cricket headlines over the last couple of years goes to show that the WTC has added a touch of relevance and importance to Test cricket. As flawed as it was, it did a lot of things right.
India and New Zealand are the two finalists. Virat Kohli and Kane Williamson are the two captains. There are plenty of superstars on either side.
What works for India is that they have plenty of viable permutations and combinations. The fast bowlers are stacked in a way that Indian cricket has never seen before.
With the kind of form that he’s carried right through to the IPL, Mohammad Siraj is bound be a major talking point among the team management.
His inclusion, though, is not so straightforward. The trio of Ishant Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Shami has been India’s driving force away from home.
Each one of them is indispensable. Who could you possibly leave out with a fair justification? Not to mention how varied their individual skill sets are, combining to form one lethal unit.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
And if India does fall into the temptation of playing four seamers, it becomes a bit of a gamble, given that turn is not alien to Southampton.
In such a scenario, Kohli will need the experience and guile of both his premier spinners in Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja, thereby eliminating the possibility of a four-pronged pace attack.
There has been a fair bit of a discussion over Shardul Thakur’s possible inclusion. At number eight, he’s more than capable of holding his own. The question then arises, to accommodate Shardul, would Kohli want to sacrifice the luxury of an in-form Ashwin?
Jadeja, by virtue of his batting skill alone, cements the number seven spot. There is almost no scope for debate there.
The batting line-up finds itself in a rather peculiar situation. The key batsmen do not have pretty numbers in England, but realistically none of them can be dropped, owing to their experience.
To carry on with the same batting core is a decision that the team management has consistently backed at various stages of the WTC cycle.
Among Rohit Sharma (average 17.00 in England), Cheteshwar Pujara (29.41), Kohli (36.35), and Ajinkya Rahane (29.26), only Kohli has managed to string together some consistency in England (593 runs in the 2019 Test series). Considering the evident frailties of the top order, Hanuma Vihari could sneak in as an extra option.
There exists a stern challenge for the batsmen to play out time against the initial high-quality burst of Trent Boult and Tim Southee. It’s a well documented fact that Test matches are never forgiving to teams that falter against the new ball.
The cumulative runs between Rishabh Pant and Jadeja become so much more important when you read those averages. Essential to India’s success would be setting a platform, which allows Pant to control the game his way.
Once he gets going, most factors turn irrelevant. It’s truly one of the joys of contemporary cricket.
(Photo by Surjeet Yadav/Getty Images)
Another call that has to be made is that of Rohit Sharma’s opening partner. Shubman Gill played the innings of his life not too long ago, at one of world cricket’s most feared venues. What goes against him is the obvious lack of rhythm in his game since the home series against England.
Flashing hard at deliveries on the fifth or sixth stump line and often getting beat in the gap between bat and pad are concerning facets of his technique, which will be highlighted all the more in English conditions. It goes without saying that Gill has the superstar potential. It’s only a matter of time before he finds his feet at the top level.
His competitor, Mayank Agarwal, looked in good touch at the IPL and his impressive CV in Test cricket could possibly tilt the selection scales in his favour.
The warm-up games should give India a lot more clarity on the opener conundrum. At present, Gill is the front-runner.
In whichever direction the team decides to look for his partner, it is Rohit Sharma who must take the onus of steadying the ship from one end. He certainly has a lot to prove to a lot of people. The 2021 English summer is going to go a long way in defining Rohit Sharma the Test match batsman.
Because this contest is to be played at a neutral venue, an air of mystery awaits both camps. And that mystery factor, coupled with the pressures that come with an ICC knockout game, is sure to elevate this contest a notch higher.
New Zealand gain early access to English conditions with a series against the home side. In more ways than one, that’s an advantage. What’s imperative is that India don’t see it that way, but rather focus on their own practice games as a litmus test for the final frontier.
My preferred XI
1. Rohit Sharma
2. Shubman Gill
3. Cheteshwar Pujara
4. Virat Kohli (captain)
5. Ajinkya Rahane
6. Rishabh Pant (wicketkeeper)
7. Ravindra Jadeja
8. Ravichandran Ashwin
9. Jasprit Bumrah
10. Ishant Sharma
11. Mohammed Shami
Ben Palliyaguru
Roar Rookie
IMO Siraj should play over Shami for sure. Rohit and Gill will get the nod vs New Zealand, but I get the feeling that at least one of them will be replaced by either KL Rahul or Agarwal for the England series. Probably Rohit, who I have no faith in for red ball cricket outside of india
Paul
Roar Guru
I think both the ECB and the BCCI like the setup at Southampton which has accommodation as part of the complex. If there's any issues in England, they can still turn this into a covid - free bubble.
Targa
Roar Rookie
In the 2-day in-house warm up game Conway opened with Latham versus Southee, Wagner, and Jacob Duffy and scored 55 before retiring. He'll be opening in the 1st test vs England ahead of Blundell and Will Young, and presumably in the final.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
All pitches are made to suit the home side. Doctoring is changing the conditions to one's advantage. Bangladesh can make all the turners they like but vs India, it won't work. The problem arises when a) there is a discrepancy in resources available to the away team - say England not having the best of spinners vs India and b) when the pitch varies significantly across innings. Then toss becomes pivotal for the away team to even compete, let alone win. In the first test of 2020 India vs England, the pitch was very flat on day 1 and progressively got worse and became a mess on day 5. England winning the toss and the pitch meant the disadvantage they had in the spin department was more than compensated. Similar is the case of India's tour to NZ. The pitches vary drastically from day 1 to day 2. While on paper the teams are matched but without enough game time, the much more adept home team pace attack turns winning the toss into a more than likely win. So on a doctored and inconsistent pitch, winning the toss is a likely win for the home team. Losing the toss is more of an even keel. So if you do the probability math, vs an evenly matched team - they raise the chance to win from 50% to 70-75%.
Brian
Guest
A doctored pitch is one made to suit the home side, not one that changes as no one ever knows who will win the toss
Targa
Roar Rookie
The batting lineups are probably equal - NZ with the slightly better top 3, India with the slightly better 4-7. NZ's seam attack is slightly better, while India's spinners are much better.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
People are going to keep pointing out the NZ and Eng series. While yes a world champion side ought to do better but the results were hugely influenced by toss. On spicy wickets in Eng and NZ, toss plays a huge role. In between one gets roads, where the pitch in the first dig is markedly better of batting vs say 3rd and 4th. India lost all 7 in 7 vs NZ, Eng. And ended up losing 2-0 and 3-1. On the other hand, India has no qualms with tosses in India. In beating England when they lost 4 out of 5 tosses in 2018 and lost 3 out of 4 in 2020. Because the conditions are more even – the pitches take turn from day 1 and continue to get uneven over the days, but don’t change appreciably between day 1 and day 5 to make toss a huge factor. So they might be termed doctored pitches but they are at least even all the way through and I consider them fair. I consider the pitch to be doctored when it changes appreciably between the first innings and the second. Ideally, the touring side should just get the option to decide – tosses in test matches are pointless. Home countries decide the pitches, the schedules- touring sides should get at least this. Pitches don’t take turn in the 4th innings, so the side winning the toss puts the other side in, bat in the best conditions, and win the match. The second key aspect is preparation. Put any SENA team into a wicket-taking turn on day-1 and with a weak long preparation, they are going to struggle. The same happens to Asian teams. The lack of preparation for India in NZ vs say the case of Aus made a huge difference. Gone are the days when the pitches during ODIs used to provide some meaningful practice – now the pitches in Eng, NZ for ODIs and tests are so different that only dedicated preparation helps. In helpful conditions and low-scoring encounters, if the bowlers are not in rhythm for even the initial spells, things go out of hand pretty quickly. So the advantage is NZ’s only because India won’t have meaningful game time ahead of the one-off test and NZ would play a confidence-boosting, understrength yet challenging England.
Bobbo7
Guest
True Shaan. Look at Rohit Sharma. Averages 88 at home and 26 overseas. A very good player but outside of India I'd take Latham over him.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
The pace bowlers from both sides are going to be key factors in this test final. India have developed. very good pace attack over the last couple of years and are comfortable bowling in away conditions. The NZ quartet of Southee, Boult, Jamieson and Wagner have been lethal in NZ conditions, which are similar to English conditions. With a Dukes ball batting is going to be very tough.
Shaan Waseem
Roar Rookie
Pujara and Rahane have well documented weaknesses against the short ball, so I'd imagine that Wagner and Jamieson will be peppering them with plenty of that stuff. I much rather prefer Rahane playing an attacking brand of cricket. Pujara has no option but to see off those spells, simply because he does not have the range of shots to counter-attack fast bowling. Pant, no doubt, is one of India's key players. He has a bit of a footwork issue against the moving ball, but what he also has is the ability to defy his critics. As you mentioned, him against Jamieson should be a riveting battle!
Shaan Waseem
Roar Rookie
I don't think that's the case at all. On paper, the Indian batters have big reputations (and are good players, no doubt), but a deep-dive into their statistics shows the existence of vulnerabilities in English conditions. An even contest as far as I see things.
Shaan Waseem
Roar Rookie
NZ will pick Santner as the sole spinner, in all probability. Comes down to a choice between him and De Grandhomme, but given that they'll be playing 4 frontline seamers (at least in the WTC final), it looks unlikely that De Grandhomme will feature. Boult's form was patchy coming into the tournament, but he got slightly better as the IPL progressed. He was playing the initial games at Chennai, so it's not a surprise that he did not go too well. The team management probably trusts him to bring his absolute A game from the word go, in the WTC Final. And it won't surprise me one bit if he does exactly that.
Shaan Waseem
Roar Rookie
It's going to be evenly matched. Looking forward to the NZ England series as well! Despite missing several key players, England have announced a good side. Eager to see, if given an opportunity, how their young fast bowlers go.
Bobbo7
Guest
NZ match up very well against India. Belted them last series. I expect NZ to win this. The only obvious advantage for India is in the spin department which may or may not be a factor in England.
Shaan Waseem
Roar Rookie
India's batting, with the exception of Kohli, has been very inconsistent away from home. The last NZ tour was pathetic. They went into a shell, essentially blocking out all scoring shots. Should be a great final! Both teams, under those conditions, are evenly matched.
Paul
Roar Guru
yep, they're clearly the better side. After all they only lost their last two Test series against the Black Caps 2 nil and the lost the previous series they played in England 3 - 1, where they were overwhelming fvourites to win.
Brian
Guest
With so many of the UK restrictions coming off why is it in Southampton shouldn't it be at Lords. Either way hard to see NZ winning. The India XI depends on the pitch. If it is goin gto swing Siraj might be a better option then Sharma. I wouldn't consider Thakur as he is not anywhere near those top 4 pace bowlers. Batting wise Vihari instead of Rahane is tempting if he has some form. I wouldn't go anywhere near Agarwal, Shaw or Rahul in replacing Rohit or Gill.
Jak
Guest
India should walk this easily. Superior in all facets. Kane Williamson is the only NZ player that would make this side stronger.
Paul
Roar Guru
sure, but I think the batting is way more important than the bowling for India and in that regard, Jadeja is a way better bet with the bat than Ashwin IMO. I'm not sure there's going to be a lot in the pitch for spinners, but if the weather continues as it's been, the Black Cap seamers could really do a number on the Indian lineup. Jadeja at 7 would certainly strengthen the batting and with his bowling, he'd still be effective against the lefties, mostly with arm balls.
Targa
Roar Rookie
Still a lot of left handers - definitely Latham abd Nicholls ( and Wagner with the tail). There's also probably Conway, and possibly one of Santner or Ravindra. Could be 4 lefties in the top 7.