Before we get into this, obviously the right owners for Newcastle have to be found first.
There isn’t much point in expanding with new teams while other clubs are funding Newcastle.
Also before everyone jumps on the Macarthur and Western United attendances, how many new businesses fail? Do you have any examples of football clubs that were founded and in their first year that were profitable? How about ones founded in a pandemic? Let’s not forget that Western United and Macarthur were founded at the worst possible time in many decades. That couldn’t have been foreseen.
Maybe we should look at other examples of expansion clubs? Wouldn’t you know, here’s one we prepared earlier.
Gold Coast United attendance
The 2009-10 season had an average attendance of 5297.
The 2010-11 season had an average attendance of 3419.
The 2011-12 season had an average attendance of 3438.
Western United
The 2019-20 season had an average attendance of 5653.
The 2020-21 season had an average attendance of 3290.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Macarthur
The 2009-10 season had an average attendance of 3532.
The figures look interchangeable between the three clubs. Wouldn’t it have been better if the FFA supported Gold Coast United to coast them along to today instead of threatening to take away licenses like they did to New Zealand who recently had attendances close to 25000 home fans? Who knows where Gold Coast United would be today.
So how many clubs would we need?
Let’s ask Graham Arnold:
“That’s down to the amount of games he’s played in the championship, and playing for ten months of the year, not six months.”
“In Australia we don’t play enough football.”
The former Sydney FC coach Arnold said the current 26-round regular A-League season was “six or seven games too short”.
“If there’s 12 teams, three times 11 is 33 rounds, plus the finals series, plus the FFA Cup, all of a sudden you’re getting up to around 40 games, and we’re getting closer to the players playing overseas instead of not training and having long off seasons,” he said.
So the target is 40 games. If so, we need around 18 to 20 teams to get there to do one home-and-away game. Or we need our current teams to play each other three times instead of two. Either way, a longer season would work the best in winter so players can play for longer.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
As we saw this season, some teams like Western United completely fell off towards the end of the season because they didn’t have the depth for the fast turnarounds and more running in the winter months.
So if we were going to expand to 20 teams, where would they be?
As a side note, even if the NSD has promotion and relegation we still need 18 to 20 teams so when two go down from the A-League, two come up from the NSD and the number remains the same. It wouldn’t be realistic for the NSD to have promotion and relegation for another five-plus seasons so we could potentially add new clubs every season or two until then.
Here are the participation rates according to these figures (thanks to Maximus Insight for the share):
NSW: 877,000 (Mariners, Sydney FC, WSW, Macarthur)
NNSW: 106,000 (Jets)
ACT: 39,000 (W League Canberra)
VIC: 456,000 (City, Victory, Western United)
QLD: 186,000 (Roar)
WA: 161,000 (Glory)
SA: 88,000 (Adelaide)
TAS: 26,000
NT: 9,000
NZ: 200,000-plus (Wellington)
If we go with Adelaide and Northern NSW, roughly each 100,000 participants should have a club. This means there should be another four in NSW, one in VIC, one in QLD, one in Western Australia and one in NZ. That would bring up the total number of clubs to 20. One of the NSW clubs should be Canberra as they already have a W-League team. Gold Coast United should try again as well as another club in Brisbane.
Imagine a 20-club A-League with an NSD that has promotion and relegation. One can only believe as the heart scarfs used to say, and now City has won the league and is playing in the finals on Sunday.
sportstar111
Roar Rookie
Hi Andy, you've said a few times that Brisbane has some of the best young players in the country - who in their current NPL set-up should we watch out for? Cheers
Winter A League is Awesome
Roar Rookie
Canberra already has a championship winning W League team. It's not as if they are starting from nothing.
Justin Mahon
Guest
It isn't xenophobia to argue that one's national league should develop players for it's national team FFS. NZ expansion falls down on that ground (opportunity cost) but also on revenues. An Australian team can fail on one, but a foreign team must do better, like a visa payer. Welly are a visa club and the next 23 (less 5 visa) spots must got to young Australian players.
Winter A League is Awesome
Roar Rookie
More football. Squads get bigger. Australian & New Zealand footballers become a higher standard all throughout Australia and New Zealand. If the 2x qld teams didn't fold than we would already be on 14 teams. Vic can easily have another east team. New Zealand can have another team. As can Canberra, Perth and potentially Adeliade.
coolncold
Roar Rookie
Okay! I seldom read articles, I read comments usually. So, the target in the article is 40 matches, including FFA Cup and finals. For FFA Cups and finales, some clubs play more, some clubs play less. So, average matches for all A-league clubs should be around 3 matches in both FFA Cup and finals. Just roughly! Then 40 takes away 3 is 37 matches. With an unbalanced 3 rounds option, the total matches is 33 for each club. That is not a fair arrangement. To make a fair home and away arrangement, there should be 16 to 18 teams. However, can the Australian population support that? Why Arnold’s saying should be the benchmark? Expanding from 26 matches (29 matches if including FFA Cup and finals) to 40 matches means the season prolongs 3 months, unless many mid-week matches. The matches in mid-week and overlapping with Rugby and AFL seasons attract small crowd. Why we need 40 matches? What actually Arnold meant? If you are running a restaurant, can you have more customers by extending the opening hours? Please explain the reasons for getting 40 matches for each club? Please explain?
Winter A League is Awesome
Roar Rookie
Yeah Geelong could work but Western United theoretically cater for the west side. East side should be done first and than maybe Geelong.
Winter A League is Awesome
Roar Rookie
It's in the article.
Nick Symonds
Guest
"Retropestively, Campbelltown’s and Geelong’s population are 12,566 and 253,269 respectively." - 1) The Campbelltown City Council population estimate for 2021 is 176,151 and is forecast to grow to 272,000 by 2041. 2) Macarthur currently has 310,000 people but is growing rapidly and is projected to reach over 600,000 people by 2036. 3) The City of Greater Geelong population estimate for 2021 is 268,984 and is forecast to grow to 393,000 by 2041. For comparison, Central Coast has 354,915 in 2021 and is forecast to grow to 414,000 by 2036. 4) Retropestively?
coolncold
Roar Rookie
UK has the population 3 times bigger than that of Australia. That is why they can have 20 teams in EPL.
Ferno
Guest
just looking on population: - Sydney should have 10 clubs before Canberra got 1. - Perth should have 4 before Canberra. monopoly is absurd and just hold the game back.
coolncold
Roar Rookie
40 games? How come that? EPL has 20 clubs. Then 19 homes matches plus 19 away matches = 38 total matches. Revise your mathematics. Gramham Arnold said that? Provide a reference or a link please.
Winter A League is Awesome
Roar Rookie
Graham Arnold wants 40 games or 10 months of football per season.
coolncold
Roar Rookie
The is no need to have 20 clubs to have relegation. 14 clubs make 26 matches for each club, perfect! List of cities in Australia by population Sydney (5.230m) Melbourne (4.936m) Brisbane (2.463m) Perth (2.059m) Adelaide (1.346m) Gold Coast (679k) Newcastle (487k) Canberra (458k) There should be a team in Gold Coast and Canberra each. Retropestively, Campbelltown's and Geelong's population are 12,566 and 253,269 respectively. For decades, FFA has made mistakes in expansion of the A-league. Just looking at the populations, there should be another 2 clubs in Gold Coast and Canberra.
Jordan Sports Fan
Roar Rookie
Yes it is hard to know fully where professional football in the city of Brisbane is really at when you have very questionable ownership of the existing team.
Winter A League is Awesome
Roar Rookie
Off topic but Pep is watching the game today https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theage.com.au/sport/soccer/designed-in-manchester-made-in-melbourne-pep-talk-drives-city-20210626-p584gm.html
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
The Championship in the UK is not fully broadcast in the UK and thats a country where Football by far is the number 1 sport I cant really see every (if any) match of the NSD getting broadcast
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
You do realize the next biggest Settlement in South Australia is Mount Gambia a town of 30K people which is near the Victorian Border and the next biggest in WA is Bunbury with 75K which is about 180KM south of Perth, there is nowhere outside of Adelaide and Perth that can support teams in those states and both those cities current teams attendence does not justify 2nd teams in those cities either Nix have to have at least have some Aussies on the team i think its 3 but atm most of our squad is Kiwi
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
Tasmania and NT only have 1 Population Centre each with over 100K people so 2 teams each does not make much sense, Tasmania if they get a Team would likely be based in Hobart with some games in Launceston while I cant see the NT ever getting a team Instead the closest the NT would get is a team in NQ that plays 1 or 2 games in Darwin a Season
Winter A League is Awesome
Roar Rookie
I included a calculation for the summer to winter/covid drop here https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/02/why-football-needs-to-be-a-winter-sport/
Winter A League is Awesome
Roar Rookie
Not most. A few fans that cross over but the majority of members of A League clubs come out to the A League games.