The Gold Coast Suns will be keenly awaiting a decision around their ability to pre-draft players from their academy as the concession package enters its third year review period.
While opposition clubs would be reluctant to see the resurgent club gain any further advantage, there is a significant secondary benefit to the AFL’s strategy of arming the 17th franchise with extra draft capital.
The obvious immediate benefits that the Suns received from the 2019 concessions came in the form of pre-drafting, with Suns Academy standouts Connor Budarick and Matthew Conroy being pre-listed along with Darwin Academy prospect Malcolm Rosas Junior, with renewed access to NT players an added concession.
Not having to match bids on academy players meant the Suns had trade capital to trade for Hugh Greenwood from Adelaide and Zac Smith from Geelong, plus make trades in the future draft knowing they wouldn’t need late picks for points.
However, there was one recalcitrant trade partner, a club who had received a small concession along with the Suns a year earlier in the form of being allowed to pre-list a pair of second-tier players or trade them, but when they had come asking for further concessions in 2019 the AFL Commission had nothing for them so they took Jack Martin through the Pre-season Draft loophole for nothing and then sacked Stephen Silvagni.
Going into the 2019 National Draft, the Suns were given arguably their biggest boost, with Noah Anderson coming to the club via a priority pick that allowed the club to also select Matt Rowell at the top of the order.
But with a late first-rounder from the worst trade sequence in AFL/VFL history (2017 West Coast into 2018 Brisbane) plus the first pick of the second round, the Suns parlayed with the last partner expected in Carlton, facilitating a live trade manoeuvre for the Suns to go up the board to pick 11 for Sam Flanders who had been predicted to go as high as pick four but slid out of the top ten as bids for Northern Academy and Next Generation Academy, his number came up as the Blues needed a trade out partner.
And yet, it was the next pick the Suns made headlines for, with recent Rising Star nominee Jeremy Sharp coming to the club via a trade that culminated in Geelong getting the 2020 mid-first-rounder allocated to the Suns as part of the concession package in return for a live pick at 27, which essentially amounted to the Suns sacrificing 510 Draft Index Points (originally 722 DVI points, but this came in as the 2020 Draft pushed the pick back from 11 to 15).
Then in 2020, the Suns pre-drafted Cairns product Alex Davies and their second Darwin kid Joel Jeffrey, the latter about to become the first draftee of the 2020 class to make his AFL debut, while retaining their high first round pick.
Had the club not been able to pre-draft players last year, their top pick may have needed to be traded in order for them to match bids, with the gun pair rated as first-round talents themselves, while the pair of second-round picks they had in place were traded to gather points for this year’s draft in case the club’s concession to pre-draft Academy players was taken away.
One negative thing that the AFL’s club rescue package has achieved is that the Suns’ trade position has been weakened, with not only Carlton, but Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney all pushing through stingy trades that gave them a distinct advantage, although as this benefits the other 17 teams in the competition the main concern is that the Suns can regain equilibrium rather than continue to be bullied at the trade table.
On the whole, every club stands to take some advantage out of the Suns getting to pre-list Academy talent, just as Geelong did to help land Jeremy Cameron, or Sydney did to match the high bid on Braeden Campbell, or Carlton’s triple play to turn a single digit high pick into three late first-round selections.
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
In 2020 the AFL did not allow the Suns to use their 2021 start of second-round pick in future trades, fueling speculation that the third year of concessions might be taken away.
On the face of it, with the Suns banking a raft of late-round picks that they might potentially be forced to use to match bids on Academy players, the club will be hoping for the ability to win the third year of pre-drafting so they can trade their later picks out in order to get a greater trade and draft outcome.
In 2021, Gold Coast has a top ten pick, start of second round pick, their own second rounder, pair of third rounders and pair of fourth round picks.
It may not sound like a lot on paper, yet there are several clubs who would be salivating over the points that those picks represent, not least the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood Magpies.
Jack Lukosius of the Suns kicks. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
To Whitten Oval first and their emerging father-son prospect, Sam Darcy, the latest projections are that the third generation prospect will attract an early bid, yet for the club to be able to match a high points total they will need more than their current late first and fourth-rounder.
The Dogs and Suns would have much more than just a pick trade to negotiate given the kind of talent on the Bulldogs list that they simply cannot afford to keep if they are to continue to renew their list.
For example, Mitch Wallis is a ripe trade target, among others, which would give the Dogs access to enough points to not just match a Darcy bid but put them back in at the end of the draft where some bargains can be had.
A wrinkle in these negotiations is the previously unwanted father-son, Darcy MacPherson, son of Super, whose brother Ewan could be a late pick or rookie target for the Dogs and who could potentially be a trade piece for the Suns because of their large amount of similar players in that position.
On to Collingwood, who also has a highly rated father-son as well as a need to trade out a mature player, with Graham Wright having come out and said that this is a likely scenario for cap purposes.
Unlike the Dogs, the Pies don’t have an early pick, although they do have future picks and they certainly need extra points to match a bid for Nick Daicos, yet with their 2021 first rounder already traded to GWS they aren’t likely to give up next year’s early pick.
What the Magpies may have to give up is a star player in order to get the necessary points to match a bid on Nick Daicos and get back into the draft late, which would also alleviate their “salary cap hangover”, but Pies fans will not be at all impressed with the Suns shopping list even if the prices are generous: Jordan de Goey, Jack Crisp and Brayden Maynard for a start.
Other clubs will also be looking to stockpile later picks in order to match bids on father-son, Northern Academy, or NGA kids they’ll be hoping make it out of the first round, while every club will be eyeing off the Suns bounty.
The Gold Coast Suns are well placed to bring in some exciting Academy talent either way, yet being able to pre-draft a group of local kids and deal out their draft capital to climb up the board could bring in that X-factor to complete their rebuild.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Every team had their funding slashed. Of course high draft picks help but not in isolation. Look at how long its taken Carlton with a number of lean years now and Melbourne apart from one good season before this. Richmond had many high draft picks for years and went nowhere. Its a combination of good management and to a lesser degree draft picks unless you are getting a number of concessions. Then it is compounded by the go home factor when players have no choice but to play thousands of k/m from friends and family at an early age. I'm still not sure how that would hold up if a young player one day challenges it.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
You describe an impossible scenario. The AFL slashed the Suns funding by $10.6 Million. How are they supposed to hire all these specialist staff when they can’t even afford to spend the whole soft cap?? High draft picks obviously work. Hawthorn had heaps, Richmond had heaps. Brisbane has heaps. Melbourne has heaps. Besides which, the Suns don’t have high draft pick concessions this year, just a start of second round pick and the chance to prelist Suns Academy rookies.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
The Cats are not the only team to benefit from the Geelong Falcons, so have many other AFL clubs. From Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis and Jonathon Brown, Travis Boak, Ben Cunnington, Devon Smith and Taylor Adams to Sam Walsh just to name a few. In fact pretty well every team has benefited from past and current players from the Geelong Falcons.
Vicboy
Roar Rookie
Geelong is very well run club - but the father son concession is not available to Gold Coast - Hawkins, Ablett, Scarlet is 900 excellent games not available to the Suns for basically nothing. The Geelong Falcons is another advantage that other clubs don’t have. Should Geelong ever redevelop the playing surface into MCG shape, they would be premier every year!
Vicboy
Roar Rookie
Carlton looked like geniuses getting Martin for nothing, but then played him injured when Mackay and Curnow were injured. Now they look like they are over paying Williams, McGovern and Martin. Carlton have been given plenty of draft picks Macca - if you get an extra early pick will you trade it for another half back flanker ;)
Vicboy
Roar Rookie
You would be better to swap players for Chol and CcJ - Richmond will swap you 1 and 1 of our first rounders for your first pick. Desperate for the next mid gun
Vicboy
Roar Rookie
You have enough Tiges ????. Sam Hayes at Port should be the target. Stewie Dew is not leading by example- at least shear the sheep if you are going to eat a whole one. I do wonder if the players are given leeway for not being professional off the field. Suns don’t need to draft any more young talent. They are missing a bit of gel. Who arranges the backline like Grimes, Hodge/Andrews, May etc I don’t see Bowes telling blokes to go here or there
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
High draft picks are not the solution. A well run administration from the CEO right down through to the whole football dept including recruiting quality trainers assistant coaches to the right coach for the stage of developement reached. They should concentrate on getting the top people rather than top draft picks. They are incapable of doing this without the help of the AFL or they would've done it by now. Look at the administration of other teams like Richmond, a basket case for years before their success and you will find quality changes in football dept personnel made. If high draft picks were the solution Geelong would be the wooden spooner. Without looking I would suspect Geelong has had the lowest number of top draft picks in the competition since the draft systems inception. The difference was people like Costa, Cook and Welles amongst others. I wonder how a Tasmanian team would've faired if the AFL had invested the same amount of money into a football heartland state, instead of allowing it to wither on the vine, sacrificed to a hybrid team with little support that will never stand on its' own two feet and can only draw supporters from the other Qld team.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
The AFL did make the caveat that they would reserve the right to take away the extra support at any time, whether that was before the end of the third year or after. However, they also stated that concessions would continue in whatever form required for as long as they were needed. Essentially, the Suns are not going to live or die by having their start of second round priority pick taken away, whereas, losing the ability to pre-draft Academy players and bank draft picks to deal at the trade period would be a real setback. Let's face it, the Suns have NOT been able to trade their priority picks at market value, with Carlton getting them to give up their start of second round pick with pick 17 for a rise of just 6 places. Sam Flanders had been rated as high as 4th pick, but the club didn't like the picks after him and wanted to cash in their chips. The Jeremy Sharp trade raised eyebrows because future pick 11 for pick 27 was a scandal, even if it became pick 15 after bid matching and ended up with GWS, yet for a double All-Australian U18 and NAB Rising Star Nominee the price was worth it. Even the Suns trying to trade away picks 27 and 37 attracted no buyers until Sydney and Geelong finally came along with Carlton and Melbourne's third rounders, which will be picks in the 50s. It isn't as though the Suns will get a great return at this year's draft with their picks unless they can pre-draft Academy rookies and trade late picks for mature players.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Jack Bowes is playing the Hodge role at the moment, with Sean Lemmens, Oleg Markov and Wil Powell doing a solid job of holding it together. David Swallow could potentially do the role, but the advantage of the guys you mentioned was their field kicking, which Bowesy has but Davey has never had. If a Dane Rampe type emerged or became available (unlikely) the Suns would grasp that player with both hands. The club appears to be trying to develop some defenders through the VFL, but that's going to take time. Pat Murtagh (AKA the Specimen) is 196cm 106kg has had mixed fortune as a ruck/forward, but is being tried down back. Good set of hands, long kick, great spoil and huge leap - he was an U18 top level Decathlete. Jack Johnston is getting some tough assignments at VFL level and could be a chance at being drafted. I've said elsewhere that I like Lewis Young because he came through with Charlie Ballard, Callum Coleman-Jones because he captained Ballard and Jack Lukosius and Izak Rankine at SA, and Mabior Chol because he's a Queenslander.
Vicboy
Roar Rookie
None are very demonstrative leaders. Could Swallow play back? Hepple, Hodge, Lewis, Ziebell, etc I like Dew, but Clarkson would be perfect in 2023
JamesH
Roar Guru
It's punishing when they already have those concessions. The AFL could have chosen to make the concessions a year-by-year prospect if they had wanted the flexibility, but instead they gave GC the concessions outright. Taking them away is a penalty. Besides, the Suns have still got an uphill battle ahead of them. How silly will they look if they remove the concessions and GC nosedive back to the wooden spoon? Surely, given everything the AFL has invested in trying to get the Suns up, they would err on the side of giving them too much rather than too little.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I don't think GWS' mediocrity lately has been with recruitment. It has partly injury and partly stale coaching. They are very good at getting unsexy workhorses. Matt De Boer, Lachie Keeffe, Jesse Hogan and Braydon Preuss are the most recent, none of whom were best 22 at the previous clubs or expensive to draft. Interesting to see how they spend their picks. On current form they could end up going into September and Collingwood could pinch another place or 2 as well. The media is making out GWS will have 5 and 7, but if it winds up being both picks being traded to move higher then a club like Hawthorn would be mad not to go for that, while GWS could maximise instead of choose outside of the elite prospects.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
If I were GWS I would be using picks to trade for “good average players”, especially if their existing clubs could pay part of their contract. I don’t believe consistently drafting multiple high draft picks will lead to medium term success.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
NGA is a great program that has been very poorly implemented from the very beginning. After the Northern Academies were created (Suns last of course), the AFL brought forward the NGA, but they never really thought it through or funded it properly. It has all been a series of chain reactions and panic by the AFL. First, they gave GWS access to an awesome zone in the Riverina which was South of the Barassi Line and gave the Giants some brilliant players with which to keep or on trade. They've since taken that away, yet GWS have NGA access in the Riverina still gives them access to bright talent for cheap. For the other 3 Northern Clubs, they have no access to NGA funding despite having a huge ATSI and migrant population. 4 current Suns players would have been eligible for NGA because 2 are indigenous and the others have a parent from overseas, yet all they got was pissy Academy funding with none of the kind of intercultural understanding of the NGA program. The fact of the matter is that clubs should able to have access to players they develop. Letting the market decide only allowed clubs that didn't invest highly in NGA to vote down its advatages, including the Northern Clubs that don't have it, yet everybody agreed that father-son and the Northern Academies should be retained.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Thom the NGA is an unfortunate result of teams getting upset over Jamarra No.1 status being delivered to the dogs this results in other teams not having similar scenarios occurring for themselves. Absolutely no foresight just rage & jealousy!
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I personally think that the AFL has gone too American in their mission to get away from local zones and such for clubs. Father-sons on the fringe should be able to be stuffed into a VFL rookie position for a couple of years. Same with NGA and Northern Academy. Obviously, elite players will get drafted, but kids like the Wests and Macphersons clearly need more time. I mean, Footscray has actually launched some careers, so it isn't as though they aren't aware that their existence is in part to groom AFL players.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
My intial reply to this got lost in mobile phone cyberspace, but I'll summarise. The Suns replaced Steven May with Sam Collins, who has turned out to be a terrific key defender and has really brought the development of Charlie Ballard along. The team has gone with Chris Burgess in defence this week, with Jack Lukosius officially going up the wing and covering down back when Burger drops off to chop out in the ruck (although Burgess will most likely just play on Luke Jackson all day. This creates the type of zone defence that allows all three talls to intercept and spoil all day - they are ranked 8th in points conceded and other aspects of defence are very good. These 3 are all top notch spoilers, Chucky and Collo are 23rd and 7th in the league for spoiling. Rory Thompson is a 100 gamer who should be a 200 gamer. He has had both knees reconstructed and is being put through the rehabilitation program of his life to get back to 100%. If he isn't looking ready for a pre-season by October, they are going to have to look at getting rid of him. Caleb Graham is being groomed to replace him and has performed admirably, but for now he looks to be a depth player who can be relied on to cover injury. I don't think there is an A-Grade key defender to be had or if it is in the best interests of Suns strategy.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
True it’s a nasty situation when it becomes personal l hope some meetings at the family table can smooth things over
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Chanon, you know full well that the Dogs don't always go with their father-sons. In 2015, the Dogs had a fairly good draft, with Josh Dunkley, Marcus Adams and Bailey Williams, but whiffed on Kieran Collins and Brad Lynch when they could have picked Darcy Macpherson, who didn't go until pick 21 in the Rookie draft. He has flourished at the Suns, even if he is fringe best 22, but I bet he watched the 2016 granny wishing he was there. Then last year, the Dogs passed over Ewan Macpherson, although with Covid and his form this year they will likely take another look. BTW, Scott has a new Mrs West and I didn't realise that he has also been bagging the club for their selection policy. Not the brightest move when you're hoping to have all three of your boys drafted.