With Richmond set to have a September break for the first time in a few years, is this another case of a dynasty – that is, three flags in a short space of time – falling away very quickly?
What if anything can Richmond learn from the experiences of Brisbane, Hawthorn and Geelong?
Firstly, consider the reasons for the Tigers’ decline.
First, the AFL does not want teams to enjoy sustained success and has built a system to prevent it. The draft, salary caps and other equalisation measures are meant to ensure regular turnover within the top eight, and they have been reasonably effective.
Geelong have remained competitive for a long period, but the flags haven’t come. I think this might be because their list is just a little too old to keep winning deep in the finals. Even if they win the premiership year, this still wouldn’t be incorrect.
Second, the ‘downside’ of four years of Richmond success has been that it hasn’t allowed for much in the way of list turnover. If the game plan keeps working and the list stays reasonably fit, it’s hard to justify giving young players the games needed to prove they are worthy of a regular spot in the side. Combine that with a spate of injuries this year and it’s no surprise the Tigers have struggled.
Third, Richmond’s ‘connection’ game plan was ahead of the curve, and this was a strategic competitive advantage for a while. Other clubs studied it, and even though they understood what the Tigers were doing, they weren’t able to defend against it. It now looks like they’ve finally caught up, and now we’re seeing some of Richmond’s tactics – for example, moving the ball forward by hand – being adopted effectively by others. Commentators have also suggested that the ‘stand’ rule in particular has hurt the Richmond ground defence this season.
Four is hunger. Do the players still have it? This could also be a factor. And there is the combined fatigue from playing four seasons and going deep into the finals, so there is less time for both physical and mental recovery between seasons. Some of the off-field stuff from last season could certainly be a factor as well.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
With this understanding of why Richmond have fallen this year, the question is: what to do the triple premiers do about it?
There are two approaches. One is that this year is a blip and that there’s still another flag or two in this core group. All they need is a good break and a strong preseason.
I don’t agree, because there are plenty of other factors to consider.
What I suggest instead is a mini rebuild in four stages.
The first stage is to identify the on-field leaders of our next assault on the flag. It might be Nick Vlastuin, Noah Balta, Jack Graham and maybe Liam Baker. That means the current crop of leaders needs to be transitioned out to make space and the senior players who can still be part of a flag-winning team in, say, five years need to be identified.
The second stage is, rather than retiring just one or two 30-plus-year-olds each year, let three or four go this off-season. It’s a bit ruthless and unpleasant, but others have tried the slow list turnover and it hasn’t been effective.
The third stage is to develop the next innovative game plan that will leapfrog the other clubs, and the final stage is to pack the team with youngsters and pour games into them in 2022 and 2023. Manage some of the senior players down to, say, 15 games per year to give more games to younger ones.
Next year will not be pleasant, but with 50-plus games into another ten or so young players, there will be a good mix of veterans and young, hungry players ready for another sustained shot during 2024-27. The aim should be for another two flags over that period.
It sounds crazy, but it just might work. The point is that doing what other dynasty clubs have done will likely result in similar outcomes. Richmond must learn from them and develop a qualitatively better plan.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
All teams that enjoy long term success have issues in keeping on their winning ways. These include injuries, motivation, salary cap, ageing lists etc. I am not saying they are the 11-12th best team in the comp. We all know they are better than that. The point I am making is their drop-off in 2021 on paper is pretty substantial. Look at the table after the weekend's round & see where they finish on the table. Then compare it to the Brisbane Lions year of 2004 who were leading the Grand Final at half-time before going onto lose. Or the Cats in 2013 who were leading the preliminary final by 20 points at 3/4 time before going down by 5 points to the premiers. Hawks in 2016 who won 17 games in the H&A before losing their final to the Premiers.
O M
Roar Rookie
I don’t think 12th (our likely final ladder position) is a true reflection of this Team”s actual ability when you take into account that It’s still only 9 months since the Tigers won the Premiership and performances this year where they smashed both the Bulldogs and the Lions. I think a combination of issues has resulted in a poor 2nd half of the Season which will result in Richmond just missing the finals. 1/ injuries to a substantially quantity of key players. Missing gainst GWS last week were Balta, Broad, Astbury & Houli…the majority of the Premiership defence. 2/ the late introduction of the stand rule (read Pablo’s summary of it’s effect on Richmond) and our inability to either devise or implement a game plan to work with it. 3/ Accumulated fatigue due to playing deep into finals over the last 4 years. 4/ Dcreased motivation due to possibly, a lack of desire to contend with Hub and Lockdown requirements again. Have looked like a Team in need of a long hidey for a while now. 5/ Questionable hunger levels due to incredible premiership succes. 6/ Player depth affected by leakage to other Clubs and up and coming players still developing. Alot of these issues can and will be fixed in the off season. Injuries, energy levels & motivation will be repaired by a long break. The game plan will be re-jigged by Hardwick who proved he is more than capable of doing so in 2017. Depth will be added through 2 x 1st round and 2 x 2nd round draft picks and the natural development of the current crop of youngsters some of which are showing real promise. The only area that I have concern in is whether or not the Team as a whole have the same hunger to succeed that is necessary, in combination with all other factors, to give you that Premiership winning edge. I expect the Tigers will make the 8 next year but beyond that is just wait and see.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Don’t forget you traded out Brett Deledio for a future first rounder, which they then parlayed into picks 20 and 25 in a trade with Brisbane. This seemed a mistake as Zac Bailey was taken, but then they got Callum Coleman-Jones and Noah Balta. Not to forget Shai Bolton and Jack Graham either. Quite the top up of quality just before going on a spree.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
It happens to all good teams. The 3rd man up rule was taken away from Hawthorn, while the ruck circle was introduced to stop the Lions. If the stand rule ends Richmond, then so be it.
pablocruz
Roar Rookie
Certainly one way of looking at it. Our dominance, particularly in finals, wasn't something they wanted us to continue. Plenty of precedents throughout history. Has been reported they are celebrating at AFL headquarters the fact we've missed finals.
David W
Roar Rookie
What a backhanded compliment when the league introduces rule changes designed to defeat your innovative and very successful game plan!
RT
Roar Rookie
I know it's not like that, but I guess I am saying (by the last paragraph) that given the players we have, I wouldn't do such a trade. However, in 2016 I wouldn't have thought bringing in 3 players would have resulted in a Premiership with 2 more to come, so what would I know?
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
You say, " I don’t know about bringing in experienced players. I will only be happy if it translates into a Premiership". Life doesn't work that way RT. Decisions have to made with no surety of outcome. Hawthorn are now criticised for not going back to the draft early enough. And that is wonderful with the advantage of hindsight. But they finished 4th in 2016 after winning 3 previous premierships & I cant recall anyone screaming out "Go back to the draft now... Jeremy McGovern is 29yo. Under free agency if he was willing to come to Richmond on a 3 year contract for big dollars. Would you take the chance & let Rioli or someone like that go to get him into the salary cap. It might not be McGovern but a star that you needed to fill a gap to get you one more premeirship. Or keep your players you have got & your first round draft pick?
pablocruz
Roar Rookie
No offence intended, Dab but are you a newcomer to the game or haven't you been watching for the last 4-5 years? The hated 'stand' rule disadvantaged Richmond like no other team this year given its system of defence that had been so successful. It has been explained to you several times why! In fact it was, according to Ben Dixon, Jonathon Brown and others, brought in to do just that. This and several other factors have had a huge impact on the Tigers this year. Yes, you have to adapt to rule changes. We adapted to the 6x6 rule which many also believed would disadvantage us. The 'stand' rule was something else, more difficult to adapt to given the 100% buy in to our team defence system of the previous 4 years. I do agree that knowing next year's rule changes in advance would assist in planning for 2022.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
No.
RT
Roar Rookie
It's a tough one. Once they make the decision to give up on next year (if they do), then that's it. I think the retirement of Astbury is a bit of a killer actually, more so than many others who could retire, contracts aside (Riewoldt, Cotchin, Houli). I think all 3 of those I mentioned deserve to play on, however I'd let Houli go just because of his injury history and because he is replaceable with some others who can play that role. Jack has been a bit in and out of form this year but I think he is still contracted. I'd like more out of Lynch before Jack goes. Many suspect Lynch has been playing injured this year and maybe that is the case. Cotchin stepped it up over the last month or so. Back to your question, I don't know about bringing in experienced players. I will only be happy if it translates into a Premiership, which is greedy. Geelong have done a lot of that with the ultimate success (though I think it is coming this year) but really, it wouldn't have been bad to be a Cats supporter over the last 10 years. Relying on a fully fit squad is playing with fire. It worked 3 times (we were largely fully fit by seasons' end each time) but it didn't this year and I don't see any reason to think it would next year. In the end, I feel Tigers have a decent group of inexperienced players coming through and a good draft hand. I'd use the draft and hope for a crack in another 3 years. If there was no promise in some of those others coming through, then I might go for the trade option.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
As a Tigers Tragic RT. I am interested to hear what your thoughts are regarding your club's situation. Do you think the club should stick to the same players believing a good run with injuries will get you back in the mix? Or do you think they should be bringing in new experienced players. E.g. swapping a first round draft pick or signing up free agents? Do they have the salary cap space? With Brisbane in 2004, Geelong in 2012 & Hawthorn in 2016, I just thought a good run with injuries & playing their best footy in Sept would be good enough to get them the premiership. I don't have the same feel for Richmond in 2022.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
Said straight from the heart RT. Who says posts on this site should only be for balanced & calmly written comments.
RT
Roar Rookie
I'd say the club that organised a systematic doping of its players deserves it more. And they have a 20 year head start.
David W
Roar Rookie
You did us all a favour in 2018 by beating Collingwood. What a sigh of relief that was, especially for us Tiger supporters!
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Me? I’m hoping for another forty years in the wilderness for the tigers. They deserve it.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
A point of a difference between the other dynasties is that they all made the finals in the following season. Richmond are likely to finish 10-12th. Huge drop away. Yes they will be a presence in 2022 but I cant see them regaining the podium. Richmond's decisions in the next month or so will be very important.
nics
Roar Rookie
Well the best 22 question is loaded. We tend to go with 2 rucks, so excluding the mids, the talls (>190cm): Kennedy, Darling, Allen, McGovern, Barrass, Nic Nat, Williams/Vardy, and then 2 out of Rotham/Brander/Waterman (3rd back/oversized winger). Sadly Nic Nat is possibly our best clearance machine, but there isn’t a lot of crumbing ability here, and Nic Nat’s 60-75% time on ground means the 2nd ruckman is required. We’ve also had no Rioli, and seen very little of Schuey and Yeo while Ryan has had an interrupted season too and these 4 (when fit) are probably our best crumbers/defensive pressure players outside of Cripps and Redden. Curious to see how much gametime Gawn/Jackson play.
The Sports Lover
Roar Rookie
Are they the tallest team in the competition when they field their best twenty two?
nics
Roar Rookie
As an Eagles fan, they were lucky to win in 2018, and it probably pushed them to persist with the last vestiges of what was an anachronistic gameplan (probably as a result of watching the Hawks pass the ball around them in 2015). Hopefully this years' dirty season will be food for thought for the coaching staff. The pattern in our losses were consistent - lack of defensive pressure due to encouraging excellent kickers but not great two-way runners or tacklers, and focusing on height (insanely so) despite footy being a winter sport with the corresponding lack of defensive pressure.