With news out of Sydney that young gun Jordan Dawson has rejected a long-term deal to stay with the Swans in favour of a return to South Australia, the footy world’s attention shifts from the ifs to the wheres and the hows.
Dawson has yet to publicly declare whether the Crows or Port Adelaide is his preferred destination, although if rumours are to be believed, the defender turned winger is wanting to call Alberton home.
Having played 64 games in the red and white, Dawson produced his best season to date, finishing third in Sydney’s best and fairest. After using pick 56 in the 2015 national draft on Dawson, the Swans will be looking for a more than adequate return on their investment into the first six seasons of the 24-year-old’s league career.
So, with that said, below are five trade scenarios, from most likely to least likely, to facilitate Dawson’s request.
Full disclosure: I am a Sydney supporter and while there may be an element of natural bias, I aim to keep as objective and balanced as possible with these scenarios.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
1. Port Adelaide receive Jordan Dawson and the Sydney Swans receive Port Adelaide’s 2021 first-round draft pick (currently pick 16)
This seems to be the consensus around the footy world, with SEN chief football reporter Sam Edmund floating the idea when reporting on Dawson’s rumoured destination of choice.
With at least two confirmed (and possibly more) father-son and next generation academy bids in the first round of drafting, this pick will end up being anywhere between 18 and 22.
Even after their upset preliminary final loss, Port Adelaide are still in ‘win now’ mode and will be interested in immediate improvement to their playing list.
With Tom Rockliff’s retirement, along with the speculation Hamish Hartlett will be moved on and existing salary cap flexibility, the pieces for this pretty straightforward deal seem to be in place.
Except there is one hitch.
Port Adelaide don’t have another selection in this year’s draft until the fourth round, with West Coast and Essendon in possession of their second- and third-round picks respectively.
This may cause the Power to be a little gun shy in offering it up, however, given their premiership ambitions, this deal may out-reward the risk.
2. The Adelaide Crows receive Jordan Dawson and the Sydney Swans receive Adelaide’s 2021 second-round draft pick (currently pick 23)
While it is rumoured Dawson will nominate Port Adelaide, his intention is to return to South Australia, which means the Crows will definitely believe they are in the mix for his signature.
Adelaide is rumoured to be very keen on Dawson, with his age and experience fitting their overall list profile as they build towards a return to finals football over the next few seasons.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Adelaide is also armed with a supposed war chest within their salary cap and could offer Dawson an offer he simply could not refuse.
The Swans will start the bidding with Adelaide’s first-round pick (currently pick four), but there is a snowball’s chance in hell the Crows will part with that in a deal for Dawson.
Former Collingwood recruiting manager turned SEN list analyst Matt Rendell believes pick 23 for Dawson will be the most overall attractive offer the Swans will receive, all depending on whether Dawson is willing to move to West Lakes.
3. Port Adelaide receive Jordan Dawson and the Sydney Swans receive Peter Ladhams
Split Enz claimed history never repeats, however, it would be very surprising if it didn’t in Sydney’s negotiations with Port.
When orchestrating the deal for Aliir Aliir last off-season, Peter Ladhams’ name was bandied as the trade chip in the Swans’ search to bolster their ruck stocks.
Although Sydney was able to successfully acquire a ruckman, they will still be in the market. While Tom Hickey had a career-best season in his first in the Harbour City, he is the on the wrong side of 30, as is Callum Sinclair.
Sam Naismith requiring knee injuries casts serious doubt over his playing future, while Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean look more to be forward/ruck types than dedicated ruckmen.
With the highly touted yet-to-debut Sam Hayes waiting in the wings at Port and Ladhams behind Charlie Dixon, Mitch Georgiades and Todd Marshall to play a key forward role, Ladhams may be able to be coaxed by the Swans with ruck opportunities while also a more competitive key forward pool behind Lance Franklin.
4. Port Adelaide receive Jordan Dawson and the Sydney Swans receive Todd Marshall
If Dawson is being lured back to his home state, the Swans may just try and do the same with young key forward Marshall.
Although Marshall is a rumoured favourite of Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley, the NSW product hasn’t quite yet cemented himself in Port’s forward 50.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
With Dixon, Georgiades, Robbie Gray, Connor Rozee and Orazio Fantasia seemingly being locks if healthy, Marshall finds himself in a constant battle with the above mentioned Ladhams, fringe forwards Steven Motlop and Boyd Woodcock, and key forward prospect Ollie Lord for a spot in Port’s forward brigade.
Quite similarly to Ladhams, the Swans could offer Marshall more secure opportunities to play a prominent role, especially with the impending end to Franklin’s mega contract and possibly career, while also dangling the go-home factor in a rare opportunity for the club.
5. The Adelaide Crows receive Jordan Dawson via the pre-season draft and the Sydney Swans receive nothing
This scenario is definitely the least likely, although if Dawson is hell bent on a return to South Australia and the parties involved end up in a deadlock, this would not be the first time a club has failed to facilitate a return on their investment.
You only have to look at the last two trade periods, with Jack Martin’s move to Carlton and Jackson Hately’s move to the Crows to see players will ultimately end up where they want to be.
If the Swans’ asking price is exorbitant (such as the top-ten pick Gold Coast wanted for Martin), Sydney could be left with nothing to show for a talented youngster and on the flip side, if the only plausible route back to South Australia is with the Crows, they may chance their hand as they did with Hately, which would be an almighty coup.
Although the season hasn’t even finished yet as we await what looks to be a cracking grand final between Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs, and these are just hypothetical dealings, this Dawson deal will be one of the most talked-about and debated deals of the off-season.
The Regulator
Roar Rookie
In hindsight, this should have 100% been included in the options, absolutely plausible and getting more realistic by the day. Only hitch would be, if Adelaide think they are a genuine chance to land Horne-Francis with that (at the moment) 4th overall pick.
MattinSG
Guest
We thank you very much for McEntee. He looks very promising
Chris M
Guest
He's a versatile and good-sized utility that is best used anywhere on the flanks between half back and half forward. However, he's not the inside-mid that you are looking for or that Port Adelaide arguably need the most, according to commentators. That such a good player wants to come back to South Australia is a bonus for the Crows and Power to fight over. I suppose the question is, which player in the Port Adelaide top 22 would he replace and how much better would the team be by making that substitution?
HbT
Guest
Lever was a first rounder too begin with and is the best intercept defender in the comp, Dawson IS NOT worth 2 firsts, let alone 1. Settle now.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
For the Swannies fans, can this kid play midfield? We have 27 half back flankers on our list, what we need is a blue chip mid.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
That's not true, he's a good footy player that can kick a goal, plus he's young, he will be a pretty good ruck for a long time to come
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Port won't do that, they never have, plus we have half backs coming out of our ears This is a terrible situation for the Swans, he's out of contract, they're relying on goodwill to get a decent price, but if push comes to shove, he'll go to the draft and end up at the Crows for nothing Swans have zero leverage
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
He was pick 56, if we offer pick 16 you should start yelling "Start the car"! You can have Marshall for free for all I care, he's a spud, but Ken loves him so that won't happen
Chris M
Guest
As I am not a Swans' member, hopefully my sources are correct in answering your question. In the period 2014-2021, Academy players, Heeney, Mills, Blakey, Campbell and Gulden were taken in the main AFL draft. Wicks and Bell were NSW zone category B rookies. I doubt that they were being avidly sought by other AFL clubs at the time. Other Academy draft selections 2014-2021 who have since been delisted include Hiscox and Davis. Academy or NSW Zone players who were rookie selections include Jordan Foote (2014), Sam Fisher (2016), Jake Brown (2017), all now delisted. Rookie, Mark Sheather (2020), remains on the list along with mid-season rookie draft pick, Lachlan McAndrew (2021). Five NSW players taken by Sydney in the main draft in eight years are still considered worthy of being on the list. That's a small benefit that no one should begrudge them for running the Academy in a state where Australian Rules isn't the main winter sport.
CLEAR AS MUD
Guest
How many of those are Academy?
.kraM
Roar Rookie
Definitely unders but it’s all very subjective.
Chris M
Guest
Pick 16 (which will drop to pick 18 after at least 2 father-son selections) is better than pick 23 (which will drop at the very least to pick 25 or later when bidding for club-tied NGA selections comes into play). Two first round picks should result in two first-rate players. If one of those selections does turn out poorly, as can happen from time-to-time, the other one should not. Sydney has a known quantity in Jordan Dawson who the club really would prefer to keep. He was in the top 3 in the club's best-and-fairest. He's coming into his peak years. To get the best out of a bad situation, you have to nail the selection with the pick you receive in exchange. That's a lot more likely with a higher pick if you have a wider pool of players from which to choose. With a higher pick there's less risk that all of the players a club rates around that part of the draft pool will be off the board. Dawson was a brilliant selection at pick 56, but the odds finding a gem at that end of the draft are comparatively much lower.
Timbo's rules
Guest
The Crows won't pay overs for Dawson. There's another bloke in their sights called Lukosis and you would pay overs for him. Pick 23 is about right for Dawson. If Sydney hold out then it's off to Port with you.
Chris M
Guest
I probably should have added that Sam Wicks (2018 Category B Rookie), James Bell (2017 Category B Rookie) and Tom Papley ( 2015 Rookie) and Lewis Melican (2014 Rookie) were also in the team that played GWS in the elimination final, although Paps is the only one that I'd yet classify as an absolute lock in the team.
Chris M
Guest
Hire that man to negotiate for the Swans' recruiting team! If there were any takers, you could consider bundling two second rounders into a trade to move up the draft order. However, Getting pick 4, keeping pick 12 and giving them pick 32 and Jordan Dawson would be an even better starting point. Nonetheless, it's still possible to pick up some unappreciated gems with a couple of second rounders. These are the Swans' draft selections from 2014-2020 (excl. the rookie draft) and the asterisked* players either played in the 2021 elimination final vs GWS or would likely have been selected if not injured. Maybe a couple recent draft selections may be regulars in the side by the end of next year. Not a bad strike rate from the Sydney recruiting team: 2020: 4 Logan McDonald; 5 Braeden Campbell; 32 Errol Gulden*; 2019: 5 Dylan Stephens; 26 Will Gould; 32 Elijah Taylor; 39 Chad Warner*; 2018: 10 Nick Blakey*; 25 James Rowbottom*; 44 Justin McInerney*; 51 Zac Foot; 2017: 14 Matthew Ling; 33 Tom McCartin*; 53 Ryley Stoddart; 2016: 11 Oliver Florent*; 21 Will Hayward*; 45 Jack Maibaum; 48 Darcy Cameron; 2015: 3 Callum Mills*; 51 Tyrone Leonardis; 56 Jordan Dawson*; 2014: 18 Isaac Heeney*; 37 James Rose; 38 Jack Hiscox; 70 Abe Davis
Prez
Roar Rookie
Jordan and pick 12 to the Crows with pick 4 and 26 going back to Swans
Windrince
Roar Rookie
Swap for marshall is a hopeless idea. Marshall is a terrible forward who's not even in port's best side, dawson is an all-australian contender
Chris M
Guest
Thanks for taking us through various possible scenarios. Maybe you can do a similar article on Dylan Stephens, if he also asks for a trade? One trade that may work well is trading Jordan Dawson and Sydney's picks 12 and 31 to Adelaide for Adelaide's picks 4 and 23. If my maths are correct, the difference in value between the picks is 997 in the draft value index which is roughly worth between picks 17 and 18. This gives Sydney much higher first and second round picks, but Adelaide gets an excellent established player approaching his prime years plus still retains a first and second round pick. Sending Dawson to Adelaide also means that one of Sydney's currently better-performed competitors is not strengthened. Receiving draft picks that give Sydney a higher chance of selecting a better player instead of receiving established players in a trade means that it should have less immediate impact on Sydney's salary cap and give the club time to somewhat unwind the back-ended payments to current players. If Dawson ends up going to Port Adelaide, Sydney could ask for pick 16 and pick 60 and send back pick 67. Maybe Sydney can use pick 60 and bundle it with whatever compensation they receive for Hewett in return for a higher pick. Alternatively, Port's pick 16 plus a future second or third round pick for 2022 may be handy if Sydney has any players from the Academy or Father-Sons for whom the club needs to accumulate points in next year's draft. Todd Marshall doesn't excite me as much as Mitch Georgiades, although Port may need both when the aging Dixon retires. Also, trading Dawson for an established player isn't going to help Sydney's salary cap situation. If the Swans receive some draft picks for other players traded out before the Dawson deal is finalised, these picks may also come into the bargaining discussions with either of the two South Australian clubs.
JB
Guest
From memory, didn't Sydney try and pry Sam Hayes out of Port last year when negotiating the Allir Allir trade? By all reports he's a better long term prospect than Peter Ladhams
JB
Guest
I think to some degree it's a bit of furphy that Dylan Stephens home is Adelaide. Like Aaron Francis, he's from the Riverland and went to boarding school in Adelaide. Though in Dylon's case he's from the other side of the border.