As I write this, the bookies have got Panthers at more than $3 to beat Melbourne on Saturday. It must be the longest odds that have been offered for Penrith since 2019.
It would be easy to chalk this up to them facing a near-perfect Storm this weekend, but it’s more that we’re seeing a near-perfect storm of events.
Craig Bellamy’s side went down to Parramatta 22-10 in Round 24 and people suggested it was the match they needed to lose.
Compare that to Ivan Cleary’s boys squeaking past that same Eels side 8-6 on the weekend, leading people to say it was the match they deserved to lose.
Because something is amiss at the Riff. And it’s the wrong time of the year for that to be the case.
In their past two matches, since we started the finals, the Panthers have scored a grand total of 18 points, with a single try in each game meaning more than half those points have come from the kicking tee.
Compare that to the 676 points they amassed over the course of the regular season, an average of 28.17 points per game.
Now obviously the finals are the best of the best, meaning points should be harder to come by – which is probably best evidenced by the fact they may have only scored 18 points but Penrith have also only given up 22 at an average of 11 points a game, which is an improvement on their season mean of 11.9.
So maybe where things are particularly skew-whiff are in the intangibles. The team don’t look like Penrith.
The most boisterous – and seemingly most confident – man in rugby league, Jarome Luai, has been a church mouse by his standards the past month or so. I mean, after he made a crunching tackle on Ray Stone on Saturday night, which forced a turnover at a critical moment, Luai just smiled and hugged his teammates.
There’s less than 20 minutes on the clock, two points separate the teams, Luai makes a play that could decide the match and he just grins and has a bit of a cuddle? Where was the lip? Where was the screaming into the face of the man on the ground? At least give us a bit of a boogie, Romey!
Tevita Pangai Jr is a devastating ball runner and the leading offloader in the competition, making three in the game against the Eels alone, but I wonder if he’s upset the composition of a side that has been building together for years.
Referee Ashley Klein speaks to Tevita Pangai Junior of the Panthers as Will Smith and Isaiah Papali’i of the Eels watch on. (Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)
Where the Panthers would usually build pressure from Nathan Cleary’s pinpoint accurate boot forcing restarts, on the weekend they were going for a different tactic when in attacking position: just give it to Tevita.
The result was some nail-bitingly close runs at the line from the new kid in the pack but zero tries, while Parra won the forced drop-out count 4-2.
Pangai is one of the most potent attacking weapons in the game and with reports the Panthers were able to pick him up for the back end of the season at a cost of just $130K, landing him seemed like a shrewd piece of business.
But with such a short amount of time at the club, it appears rather than spend time integrating him into their structures, they’re just hoping all the talk of x-factor (apparently he’s got heaps of it, as if it’s something you can quantify) will give them more in attack.
I worry, instead, his addition will be a net loss, seeing them throw him the ball to charge at the line rather than do what has worked so well for them the past two seasons.
And speaking of going away from what has worked, we come to whatever the hell is going on in Ivan Cleary’s head.
Known as one of rugby league’s good guys – Phil Gould famously described him as “the sort of bloke you would let marry your daughter” – Ivan is seemingly having a go at playing the heel at the moment.
Yeah, he’s not very good at it.
We don’t need to rehash the whole Cleary vs Wayne Bennett stoush that played out over a series of leaks and pre and post-match press conferences two weeks ago, suffice to say Cleary came away worse off.
But rather than simply chalk that up as a learning experience and move on, Cleary decided the chip on his shoulder was worth keeping in place.
His post-match presser after the Parra win didn’t rate a mention, coming hot on the heels of Brad Arthur’s pointed comments about getting stiffed and just 24 hours after Des Hasler gave the kind of performance only Des can (I actually thought it was pretty tame by his standards but some journos were genuinely upset by the Manly mentor). But Ivan, who was just 80 minutes away from a second successive grand final, barely cracked a grin.
And perhaps the reason for that is because the win over Parramatta didn’t actually mean anything.
That sounds dismissive but the fact of the matter is Penrith are still a match away from where they need to be.
And, even then, anything short of victory consigns their entire season to the scrapheap.
Panthers coach Ivan Cleary defended his players’ behaviour. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
While most teams can consider making a grand final – or even preliminary final – as a success, the Panthers either win the decider or their year will be a failure.
After falling short of the ultimate prize by just six points last year – in what was their first loss since Round 5 – there were fears that Cleary’s boys may suffer from some sort of second-year syndrome, particularly given this young squad had lost experienced campaigners such as James Tamou, Zane Tetevano and Josh Mansour.
But those concerns were emphatically put to bed as they shot out of the blocks to win their first 12 games on the trot, a run that only ended when a huge chunk of their team were missing due to State of Origin.
They may not have secured the minor premiership for a second-successive season but with just three losses in the regular season – two of which came during the Origin period – there’s an argument to be made this team is even better than their 2020 iteration.
Which is why it’s rings or bust for the Pennies.
And when a pass mark for your season is winning the premiership, as September progresses things can start to get stressful – and stress is a silent killer.
It’s an odd situation for them to be in, given perhaps the bedrock of their success has been the joy at the heart of it. A team of local kids who are ultimately just mates that love playing footy together.
It should be the opposite of stress-inducing. And it’s the key to them achieving their ultimate goal.
Get back to what works.
Tell Jarome to strut. Pass TPJ the ball, sure, but don’t do it on the last tackle. Give Ivan a bit of a tickle before he faces the cameras.
Let go of the stress and rediscover the joy. Because a dour Penrith side will be no match for Craig Bellamy’s boys this weekend.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
TB3 I'm hoping you can answer a question others from this forum have been unable to answer? Can you remember which game the famous photo of Denis Pittard diving full stretch, tongue out, tackling Graeme "Changa" Langlands occurred in? I was at the SCG at a finals game in the early 70's when Souths beat the Dragons. My uncle was a Dragons supporter, and I was sitting on his shoulders behind the goalposts. I was about 4 years old. I remember Souths were in front and pressing the Dragons line. Time was almost up and Souths threw a long cutout pass which was intercepted... by Langlands. The only player to turn and give chase was Denis Pittard. From what I recall, a try in the late stages of that game would have given the Dragons the win (as much as I can remember, my uncle's explanation. Langlands ran practically the full length of the field but Pittard dived and brought him down just short of the line. The Rabbitohs then had to defend with their back to their try line until the siren sounded. After what seemed an eternity, Souths won the game and my uncle explained that the Rabbitohs were going through to the GF. I have always thought THAT photo was of that moment, my first lasting memory of the game being at the ground. But the results don't marry up with those facts. Souths never beat the Dragons in the lead up to a GF from 1969 - 1971. It has been a mystery that I would dearly love to have solved. When Souths beat the Dragons in the finals in 1968 they won 20-8. Hardly a close game, with everything hinging on that last scoring opportunity.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
TB3 I'm hoping you can answer a question others from this forum have been unable to answer? Can you remember which game the famous photo of Denis Pittard diving full stretch, tongue out, tackling Graeme "Changa" Langlands occurred in? I was at the SCG at a finals game in the early 70's when Souths beat the Dragons. My uncle was a Dragons supporter, and I was sitting on his shoulders behind the goalposts. I was about 4 years old. I remember Souths were in front and pressing the Dragons line. Time was almost up and Souths threw a long cutout pass which was intercepted... by Langlands. The only player to turn and give chase was Denis Pittard. From what I recall, a try in the late stages of that game would have given the Dragons the win (as much as I can remember, my uncle's explanation. Langlands ran practically the full length of the field but Pittard dived and brought him down just short of the line. The Rabbitohs then had to defend with their back to their try line until the siren sounded. After what seemed an eternity, Souths won the game and my uncle explained that the Rabbitohs were going through to the GF. I have always thought THAT photo was of that moment, my first lasting memory of the game being at the ground. But the results don't marry up with those facts (see below). Souths never beat the Dragons in the lead up to a GF from 1969 - 1971. It has been a mystery that I would dearly love to have solved. When Souths beat the Dragons in the finals in 1968 they won 20-8. Hardly a close game, with everything hinging on that last scoring opportunity. https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/seasons/nswrfl-1968/summary.html https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/seasons/nswrfl-1969/summary.html https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/seasons/nswrfl-1970/summary.html https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/seasons/nswrfl-1971/summary.html https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/seasons/nswrfl-1972/summary.html
paha
Guest
Someone's feeling sensitive today :crying:
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
1. I went to the 1971 GF. Saints lost all three grades with losses to Canterbury in the lower grades. Saints went close with George Piggins winning crucial possession from dummy half raking when Saints were close to the try line. 2. Saints have won two since then but have lost five grand finals before winning as St.G-Ill in 2010. Our only good year was 2018 when we were knocked out by Souths in a close preliminary final. 3. In 1969 it was a two horse race with Souths 36 and Balmain 34 well clear of Manly and Saints on 28. Despite losing the major semi final by 14-13 Balmain looked like a good chance in the grand final.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
Well you have a few years on me then TB3. I started going for the Rabbitohs in 1970 (hence my initial profile name SSTID_1970). Since then, Souths have been in 3 GFs and have never lost one! They have a 100% win record. Perhaps that’s something to bear in mind if Souths progress to the 2021 GF? :stoked: Since I was born, Souths have won 5 GFs and only lost one (in 1969 to a side that also bent the rules in that game). I don’t hold it against the Tigers, though, after the Rabbitohs did them dirty in a gentlemen’s agreement that Souths broke to walk away with their second premiership in 1909.
Dandragon
Roar Rookie
Yes, absolutely! And the opposition player who scored the winning try was a South’s junior, so it doesn’t count anyway.
Saints
Guest
If South’s get into the GF & get slaughtered. TFW will be saying we didn’t really lose , we Won. The other team had too many players on the field & the scoreboard attendant illegally put up points, that were actually our points. Just like with Donald.
Smartypants49
Roar Rookie
I too am a Storm hater, but I hope they come out winners against the panthers.
Dandragon
Roar Rookie
Wrong, yet again, Clouseau. What a surprise. Although I do like this post that has offended u. Very well said.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
1. I was at the SCG for the last three of the eleven. 2. St.George did have quite a few internationals, mostly Australian, but most only played a few games. They had a brilliant captain coach, Ken Kearney a Wallaby and Kangaroo, and they kept a winning team by adding one player each year. 3. They did not adapt well to the four tackle rule although they were minor premiers in 1967. The new game was dominated by scrums, scrum penalties and two point field goals.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
Go away dandragon/danielle. I'm not talking to you, Alex Forrest. Find someone else to obsess over. I'll add this profile to the others of yours that I am ignoring.
Saints
Guest
As opposed to your fantasy versions of the truth. If you were American, you’d be a Donald Trump supporter. You & your Fake News , plus fake Virus.
Paul
Guest
Spot on... As Phil Gould had to get a loan from James Packer , to save the Penrith Football Club. Packer is a friend of Gould’s.
Onya.
Guest
P.S.... The Football Club, is located in a temporary style building. It not made out of bricks or concrete. Been there to do work several times. Closer to fibro than bricks or concrete. :thumbup:
Onya.
Guest
The Leagues Club, Panthers isn’t the Penrith Football Club is it ..It’s the Football Club that runs the team & pays the players. Which all but went bust . The Football Club is located in another building. Not in Panthers ! Clearly, when the Football Club has to get a loan to not go under. It’s not rolling in cash. As you would have everyone believe. So I’d say that that’s pretty conclusive, that they ‘ do indeed to it tough economically ‘! Not only that. The Penrith Football Club is the only football club to not have their lower grades players under contract. Only the top 30 squad have contracts. The rest just get payments to play. As the club can’t afford to have them all under contract. Which shows your statement to be nothing but fantasy , that comes from your lack of knowledge about the Penrith Club. Doesn’t matter how many times that you have it explained to you. That the Leagues Club & Football Club aren’t the same thing. You still can’t admit that you are just ‘Wrong’ & have no idea. Still, Wrong you are ..Kurt S...
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
That is a very one-eyed analysis of the truth. The Panthers were guilty of the same offences, and yet Souths only got 2 penalties. It was a very one-sided refereeing performance, and don't start me on the controversial Mark Nicholls downtown ruling when everyone involved in the game agreed that penalty was a joke and is let go 199 times out of 200 during the regular season. That decision alone practically decided the result.
LM
Guest
TFW, seriously mate. Anyone who watched that game could see that Souths came out with an aggressive mindset like they had been told to stick it to the Panthers. As the game wore on, they became more concerned with this than actually, you know, playing footy and scoring points. This explains the penalty count. A few of their players visibly starting losing their heads. This opened the door for Penrith to take control and blow them away. As Penrith came into the game, Souths could not focus and gave away even more penalties.
LM
Guest
Bloody right!
Kurt S
Roar Pro
Look at the building that the leagues club built. Is it made of fibro? The management at some stage must have had the funds to get finance to build such an obscene building in a location where people are doing it tough. My point stands. If what you say is true, then how did they ever get finance to build the leagues club? You understand the concept of finance don't you? You require collateral. If the leagues club had collateral to bankroll such a building, they are not fibros. It is as simple as that. Did the management team not think for one minute that maybe they could have created a more subtle building to house the club? If the leagues club can build a building like that then they figured that they could afford it or the management team are morons. Which is it? I also see that that you have ignored my point about player's salaries being too high to even consider being termed "fibros" but I understand that does not fit your argument so you will continue to ignore it. Good day to you.
Onya.
Guest
As opposed to Queensland’s Munster , kicking players who are on the ground. What a top guy he is...