Anyone writing off the South Sydney Rabbitohs simply because they have conceded 50 points in two games this season are kidding themselves.
The South Sydney Rabbitohs are in the 2021 grand final up to their eyeballs.
Everyone has heard the oft-raised statistic that no side has ever won the premiership in the same year that they’ve conceded 50 points or more in a match.
This is the year that hoodoo could well be broken.
Why?
Because, while the Rabbitohs have indeed conceded 50 points twice in 2021, those results aren’t what they appear to be.
Firstly, their 50-0 loss in Round 9 was against a full-strength Storm side that was revelling in the V’landys Ball rules. Craig Bellamy and his men had worked out to fine point how to exploit the set restarts and they were putting sides to the sword on the back of possession ratios unseen since the St George Dragons’ 11 seasons of domination under the unlimited tackle rule.
In this mood, they came up against a side without Latrell Mitchell, Cam Murray and Adam Reynolds. The lopsided possession saw the Storm have the ball for over 11 more minutes than the depleted Rabbitohs.
Two rounds later, the Rabbits travelled to Dubbo and got towelled up by the Panthers to the tune of 56-12. While the cardinal and myrtle were at near full-strength, they had a dirty day against a red-hot Panthers side. The Panthers had the ball for 15 more minutes than the Rabbitohs.
“A dirty day?!” I hear you scream. “Surely that they are capable of such a bad performance is exactly why that 50-point conceded ‘rule’ has stood the test of time. The Rabbitohs aren’t real contenders.”
In a normal season, I would be inclined to agree with you. Any side that lets in 56 points while at near full-strength just isn’t the real deal.
However, this is no normal season. This is league in the time of COVID-19, compounded by the mayhem of V’landys Ball.
This has created a paradigm unlike any other seen before. Comparing season 2021 to any other is not comparing apples with apples. It is comparing apples with guava.
Consider these figures from the last three normal seasons: 2017, 2018 and 2019. In each of those seasons, there were four, seven and five games respectively in which one side beat another and scored 50 points or more in the process.
That is an average of five floggings a season featuring 50-plus scores being conceded by a side. Under those normal circumstances, it is reasonable that a side conceding 50 points or more in a game could have a line drawn through them.
But we aren’t under those normal circumstances.
Can Wayne’s Bunnies get over the hoodoo on Sunday? (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
In 2021, there have been 19 games with a side chalking up 50 points-plus. That is almost four times the average, just under a 300 per cent increase. With the incidence of the floggings being so spectacularly high, the significance of conceding a 50-plus score line decreases accordingly.
To further illustrate that point, in the last ten seasons before this one, the average points scored in total per game is 40.8. This year, that average is 46.3. That is an additional 5.5 points scored a game on average. That’s an extra 1,000-plus points scored.
Now, consider this. Of the Premiers of the last 30 seasons – from 2020 back to 1991 – there have been ten incidences of the eventual Premiers conceding 40 points-plus in a loss. Put each of those ten sides in a V’landys Ball environment and it is more than a reasonable bet that more than a couple of those defeats would see the half-entury brought up.
Who knows what the score of the 2001 Newcastle Knights’ loss to the Sharks in Round 22 of their premiership season would have been under V’landys ball rules? It is a good bet that the 34-49 score line would have been bigger.
Similarly, the North Queensland Cowboys’ 22-44 loss to the Broncos in Round 3 of 2015 would probably see the Cows concede 50-plus if that match was run the way games have been in 2021.
The 50-point conceded stat is definitely not one that the Rabbitohs should be concerned about. For a starter, their defence has been rock solid in the latter half of season 2021.
In the latter half of the season and in the finals so far, there is no doubt that we’ve seen players able to once again slow the ruck down significantly. The Rabbitohs are incredibly unlikely to concede such a huge score line now.
In their last eight games, the Rabbitohs have only conceded over 16 points once: their Round 23 25-12 loss to the Panthers.
What should be concerning for South Sydney is that recent loss to the Panthers, as well as the far-west Sydney club having history on their side.
In the last 30 seasons there have been eight instances of the previous season’s losing grand finalists making the decider the next season. Only the 1992-1993 St George Dragons and the 2003-2004 Sydney Roosters have lost the second time up.
The 1991 Panthers, 1995 Bulldogs, 1996 Sea Eagles, 2007 Storm, 2008 Sea Eagles and the 2017 Storm all made amends for the previous year’s disappointment. That is 75 per cent of the time.
What that really highlights is that grand final experience really counts.
It is in that department that the Panthers have a clear advantage.
| Panthers | Grand finals played |
Games played |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Edwards | 1 | 79 |
| Stephen Crichton | 1 | 52 |
| Paul Momirovski | 0 | 38 |
| Matt Burton | 0 | 31 |
| Brian To’o | 1 | 52 |
| Jarome Luia | 1 | 65 |
| Nathan Cleary | 1 | 119 |
| Moses Leota | 1 | 104 |
| Api Koroisau | 2 | 144 |
| James Fisher-Harris | 1 | 133 |
| Viliame Kikau | 1 | 97 |
| Kurt Capewell | 1 | 95 |
| Isaah Yeo | 1 | 172 |
| Tyrone May | 1 | 55 |
| Scott Sorenson | 0 | 58 |
| Spencer Leniu | 0 | 35 |
| Liam Martin | 1 | 64 |
| Total | 14 | 1393 (avg. 82) |
| Rabbitohs | Grand finals played |
Games played |
| Blake Taafe | 0 | 7 |
| Alex Johnston | 1 | 165 |
| Dane Gagai | 0 | 226 |
| Campbell Graham | 0 | 89 |
| Jaxson Paulo | 0 | 25 |
| Cody Walker | 0 | 141 |
| Adam Reynolds | 1 | 231 |
| Mark Nicholls | 0 | 110 |
| Damien Cook | 0 | 146 |
| Tevita Tatola | 0 | 92 |
| Keaon Koloamatangi | 0 | 37 |
| Jaydn Su’A | 0 | 83 |
| Cameron Murray | 0 | 103 |
| Benji Marshall | 1 | 346 |
| Jacob Host | 0 | 71 |
| Thomas Burgess | 1 | 187 |
| Jai Arrow | 0 | 102 |
| Total | 4 | 2161 (avg. 127) |
The Panthers have 13 players who are backing up from last year’s grand final loss, with Api Koroisau having also played in the Rabbitohs’ 2014 triumph. For the Rabbitohs, Adam Reynolds, Thomas Burgess and Alex Johnston are also veterans of that victory over the Bulldogs. And, of course, Benji Marshall was victorious with the Wests Tigers in 2005.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
However, another stat that has been significant in the past is the overall experience of the side. The Rabbitohs have a distinct advantage there. The cardinal and myrtle boast 768 more first grade games – that translates to an average of 45 more games per player.
The Panthers have only five players with 100 or more games experience, while the Rabbitohs boast ten. It is this experience that could prove invaluable under pressure.
Then there is the gulf in coaching experience to consider. I am an unabashed fan of both Ivan Cleary and Wayne Bennett as coaches. Bennett has coached five sides and taken four of them to grand finals. Only the 1987 loss with the Canberra Raiders and the Broncos 2015 defeat blemish his record in deciders. He has won seven of the nine he has gone to.
This will be Ivan Cleary’s third grand final (Warriors 2011, Panthers 2020, 2021) as coach and he is yet to win one. However, an examination of all of the premiership coaches in the NRL era shows that the more experienced coach has only won about half the time.
In reality these two sides are extremely evenly matched.
For mine this game will come down to two key considerations.
1. Adam Reynolds
In his very last game for the club he has played all of his 231 matches for, he may be carrying an injury that will keep him from his best. However, as his role is primarily to guide the side around the field, only the most debilitating injury should see him as a crucial weakness.
2. Blake Taaffe
The South Sydney junior has done extremely well in replacing the irreplaceable Latrell Mitchell. However, his eighth first grade game is going to be a grand final. That is an incredible and possibly overwhelming experience for the 22-yea- old.
There is no question that he will be relentlessly targeted by the Panthers. How he performs in this game will be key to the result.
For me, it is going to be the Panthers in a very close one.
But I’m not putting any money on it.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
One mistake, Paul. Pass short to the guy in a hole you could drive a semi-trailer through with AJ in support and just the FB to beat, and the premiership is yours. Like Bennett, I can't bag Cody for that though after the season he has had for the Bunnies. He just overthought it. With every cut out pass to AJ Walker threw through the closing stages of the season, I kept thinking, good sides will be sweating on that in the big games... and sure enough that proved the difference. But with such a meagre share of possession, luck was never going to favour the Bunnies. Not to mention the role that Reynolds' groin possibly played in that missed sideline conversion on his favourite side. If the Eels hadn't been robbed blind, the Rabbitohs probably would have played them in the GF and coasted to victory. Sliding doors moments unfortunately.
Rabbit Stew
Guest
They have now , Big Myxomatosis!
Paul
Guest
They Did continue to make their own history. Such as it was!
Onya.
Guest
Then again. Penrith defeated South’s 3 times out of 4. Penrith played 4 finals to win it. Defeated Melbourne to get there. Had a lot of injuries. No weeks rest during the finals . Had 1 less days rest after the semi final last weekend. South’s weren’t good enough!
Paul
Guest
Then again. That had no relevance at all! Glory, Glory , to Penrith!
Onya.
Guest
Seems like the 50 point hoodoo still rolls on!
Mark McGrath
Roar Rookie
Good article Tim. I agree with your main thrust because as you say, the game has changed significantly in 2021, so historical stats based on points are not relevant (unless you went to the trouble of normalising all the pre-2021 scores based on 2021 scoring rates). The two best predictors of finals success are 1) the week off and 2) strength of recent form (post-Origin period). Souths tick both of those boxes. Penrith on the other hand may only just tick the strength of recent form box because I thought they were lucky to get away with the win against Melbourne. Only injuries to key Melbourne forwards in the first 20 mins allowed Penrith to win the match (not to mention Melbourne bombing two tries).
Graeme
Guest
Nice piece Tim. This 'stat' is bollocks in itself. It forgets that tries were worth only 3 points for most of last century. Balmain won in 1940s having conceded 47 in a game (to Souths as it happened). Souths won in 1950s having twice conceded more than 43 in a game!
London Panther
Roar Rookie
I’m biased but a confident Panthers fan. I think for Souths to have any chance Walker needs to have a great performance (probably win the CC). The question is can he stand up in a big game, when it slows right down and the pressure moments come? That has always been the knock on him, but he has the chance to silence his doubters on the weekend. If he can do that, and Souths win, they will be deserved champions.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
"Taaffe has not made one line break since he took over from Latrell." https://www.rabbitohs.com.au/teams/telstra-premiership/south-sydney-rabbitohs/blake-taaffe/
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
I have always favoured playing Latrell at left centre. Even more so next year with Gagai moving on. Although Latrell has moments of brilliance at FB, and no FB in the NRL can do what Latrell does defensively when he gets it right, he is not and has never been an 80-minute effort player. You need that at FB, especially after the rule change. That's why Latrell did so well in Origin this year, he could pick his moments. I try to imagine how even more lethal Souths attacking left edge would be with Latrell at left centre, drawing two defenders and giving the ball to an unmarked AJ. That said, I have it on good authority Taaffe was approached by Souths ahead of the announcement of Reynolds going to the Broncos, and he was told to prepare to play HB next. That was before Latrell was suspended, though. I doubt that plan has changed, especially with Anthony Milford's arrival at Redfern still up in the air. Taaffe is doing a good job, but he is still growing into the role and adjusting to his teammates. I think he has been fantastic for Souths, and he has had some exceptional moments, but I am not convinced yet that he has sufficient x-factor at FB to hold down the position going forward. Taaffe has not made one line break since he took over from Latrell. He made a break the other week in counter-attack, but you could have piloted the QE2 through that hole. I want to see Taaffe take the line on a bit more at speed and with late footwork. Hypothetically speaking, if there was an amnesty granted for Latrell, and he was free to play you have to play him with Taaffe reverting to the bench and, regrettably, Benji being dropping out. Taaffe has earned his spot in the GF. But no one wants to see that Rossi. Not when everything has been set up for the perfect fairy tale ending for Benji, Bennett and Reynolds. It is the story the game needs after the year we have had. The simple truth is that irrespective of if the Panthers lose on Sunday, their premiership window is wide open. They will be one of the top 4 sides for many years to come, I fell. Just give Souths this one, hey? :silly:
Rossi
Roar Rookie
Something we can agree on Glory!
Rossi
Roar Rookie
40-0 was against Parra too wasn't it? I suppose when you've got a rabid Ben Kennedy and a bloke named Joey at 7 you can beat anyone on your day. I still rate that 2001 Eels side as close to the best I've seen, and they didn't even win the comp
Rossi
Roar Rookie
I actually thought they'd win one when Wayne signed due to him being so successful with good rosters. And don't worry about a fair go from refs, since the start of 2014 they've more often than not gotten plenty of refereeing go their way!
Rossi
Roar Rookie
Considering recent comments from his wife it seems he blames the NRL system and not himself. Taaffe doesn't have Latrells at times unstoppable brilliance but he is a lot safer at the back and does a lot more work so O don't see Souths as weaker with Mitchell out. Hypothetically if Mitchell was back from suspension this week do you out him at centre and leave Taaffe?
Nat
Roar Guru
Yep. 60pt hiding to the Dogs.
JohnB
Roar Rookie
After the Souths loss to a 50 point score earlier in the season and the automatic references to this hoodoo I asked whether any previous premier would have lost conceding 50 points in a game had the scoring system been then what it is now. Someone (and I very rudely can't remember who) responded saying that indeed Souths in 1953 had lost a game to less than 50 points, but that score would have been more than 50 had 4 points been awarded for tries. So you can argue it's not a hoodoo at all (if you treat the ARL and the Sydney rugby league as one ongoing succession of competitions).
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Thanks Tim, good read. Yes I don’t buy into the 50 points conceded being a barrier. That was a long time ago. Bennett has Souths nicely positioned with fresher legs and possibly a bit more petrol in the tank. The Panthers defence is the best in the business along with there Number 7 pulling the strings. If Sutton allows a faster game that will suit the Bunnies, if it’s a slog fest at the play the ball that will suit the Panthers. This is a toss of the coin, going to back my Bunnies to win 16-12.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
Or all of Penrith have played in a recent GF and they have proven Origin Players in Cleary, Luai, To'o, Yeo, Capewell and Martin :thumbup:
Rob
Guest
Not sure you can read much into the 50 point thing. For me the interesting thing is the experience numbers. Souths are well in front IMO. Interestingly the Panthers have all got GF experience from last year but how does that stand up against Cook, Murray, Gagai and Arrow’s proven Origin performances? Also will last year’s defeat inspire the young Panthers or will there be a few self doubts should things get close? I’m thinking the Panthers will be inspired and confident but I certainly would never dismiss the ability of Bennett, Cook, Murray, Arrow and Gagai to have a significant impact.