He’s the unanimous presumptive number one pick in the upcoming AFL draft.
Jason Horne-Francis has been tearing it up for the South Adelaide Panthers in the SANFL for the last two seasons and has been extremely impressive in the representative games he’s featured in too.
According to Fox Footy’s Ben Cotton, the Kangaroos rejected two eye-watering offers for the first pick. Adelaide reportedly offered pick four and two 2022 first-rounders, before Richmond offered picks seven, 15, 26 and Callum Coleman-Jones – with North saying no to both of them.
That should give some indication at the extent to which he is highly rated by all clubs, not just the holders of the top pick.
Where the cancellation of talent pathway competitions and national championships would normally have adversely affected the development of such a young player, Horne-Francis has been able to enjoy a full year playing against some of the best non-AFL level players in the country.
His sublime performances, coupled with the expectation that will almost certainly come with being North Melbourne’s first ever number one draft pick, means the hype train is already going full steam ahead.
I’m not here to tell you that he won’t eventually fulfill those expectations. How would I know that anyway?
But I do want to tell you to ease off the expectations on his first season.
Comparisons between the AFL and big American leagues – like the NFL – get made more and more these days. While I don’t think the hype around the AFL draft will ever reach the levels it does in the States (despite the AFL’s best efforts), we are seeing an ever-increasing amount of attention being placed on the number one pick.
What gets forgotten in these comparisons, however, is that NFL draftees go through years of college sport and don’t enter the top professional competition until they’re much older than our players.
The top pick in the most recent NFL draft – Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence – is already 22. Cam Rayner, the number one pick in the 2017 AFL draft, is still only 21 and Horne-Francis was only legally allowed to have a beer and play Grand Theft Auto V not even four months ago.
If we look at the debut campaigns of the most recent top picks, it’s even more obvious that we need to give the kid plenty of time and, more importantly, time out of the spotlight to properly develop.
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, who was picked first last offseason, was being called the next Lance Franklin long before his AFL career began and the hype reach truly ridiculous levels. Fans around the country were screaming at Luke Beveridge to put him in the side – like they knew what was best for him more than the person who actually coaches him every day. Then, those same fans had a meltdown when the 19-year-old had a ho-hum seven-disposal, goalless debut against the Swans.
Give him a break!
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Matt Rowell burst onto the scene in 2020 with three consecutive three-vote games, but has since been cruelled by shoulder and knee injuries. He actually played 11 straight games to finish off 2021, but I suspect the reason more wasn’t made of his middling impact was the fact he plays for Gold Coast and not the media agreeing to a moratorium on Rowell headlines.
Sam Walsh won the 2019 rising star award in his first campaign but, despite averaging 25 disposals and ten contested possessions a game, still had to endure endless chatter about whether he was the player Carlton should have taken with the first pick and was shockingly declared by one infamous personality as “not a matchwinner”. He just won their best and fairest, by the way.
We’ve seen this happen to players who haven’t rebounded too.
Tom Boyd left the game early citing mental health concerns. You could argue the bulk of the scrutiny in his case came about because of his trade and subsequent mega-deal – but his early drafting no doubt added to the crushing weight of expectation.
Going further back, we can’t forget the truly ridiculous amount of pressure Jack Watts was saddled with. At times it felt he was being single-handedly tasked with dragging one of the oldest professional sporting clubs in the world out of a historic malaise – no wonder it got to him.
Watts’ case worries me too, given the parallels that can be drawn to North Melbourne’s current plight and the state Melbourne were in back in 2008. The Kangaroos aren’t in quite the same hole the Demons were, but there’s no doubt they’re at their lowest in a very long time.
I hope Horne-Francis isn’t tasked by those in the media with putting North on his back from day one.
You have to go back a long way to a player taken at number one who could be labelled a ‘bust’ and wasn’t also cruelled by injury. Even the players who haven’t reached ultra-stardom, like David Swallow or Tom Scully, both have/had perfectly solid careers that did a great service to their respective clubs.
Jason Horne-Francis may be the man to start a new North Melbourne dynasty, he (hopefully not) may have his potential robbed by injuries, or he may ‘just’ put in 200-odd serviceable games and bring plenty of smiles to the faces of North fans without becoming a quadruple Brownlow medallist.
Whatever happens, we’re not going to know the ending of his story by June, so – for everyone’s sake – let’s keep the blowtorch off him in 2022.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Yea Bevo is a beauty from great stock, keeps the boys on their toes!
Boo
Guest
Good response Chanon I suppose it's like baking a cake even with the same ingredients some Cooks make them taste better .Glad you mentioned Macartney did a big job at Geelong too .I think you got a good one in Beveridge in the " old days " when pubs were open saw him regularly on the punt at the Mordy Sporting club .I think all the good coaches have the gambler in them prepared to back there ideas against the opposition unlike the one we got at the Cattery .
AD
Guest
This is an article and makes a very good point ie that Horne-Francis just isn't actually that good and the Kangaroos should definitely not take him at pick 1. His true ranking should be about pick 4 (before allowing for father-son bids). I repeat - NOBODY SHOULD TAKE HIM BEFORE PICK 4. Thank you.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
It’s an interesting conundrum Boo a winning culture compared to an historical culture. Some teams over their history have a successful lineage of winning premierships & others not. But instead the creation of a winning culture & breaking away from a mediocre history is a fascinating proposition. A forward thinking coach especially the best coaches implement the success of a winning culture by believing the ethos of success by challenging your teammate & striving to play as a team & sacrificing yourself for the betterment of the team! The Demons played this mantra to perfection as did the dogs in 16’ Finals series & l’m sure the bottom teams will file this blueprint for their own success in the future years!
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
They don’t get any tougher and so much stamina than this guy.
Damightyham
Roar Rookie
I am originally from WA, been in vic for past 14 years. So I have watched with interest the possible prospects for West Coast. My post is not just about Francis-Horne. The kid deserves his current status at number 1. I would also go as far as to say a few local WA kids have been touted above Sheldrick. E.g. Amiss and Gorringe. It comes down to what clubs need too. But I can't go past the second efforts and inability of top quality kids unable to answer Sheldrick in full flight. And a kid who covers the whole ground with repeat efforts, and forces the opposition to give away frees to try slow him down. Gets kneed in the ribs while in the ground and bounces straight up keeps playing without a care. There's a temperament you love to have and see at any club. One to watch, that's my main point.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Just a note on Matt Rowell. He injured his shoulder in August last year and was limited throughout the remainder of the year. The preseason was the shortest ever in AFL/VFL history and he spent it rehabbing instead of getting to maximum fitness. Then he injured his knee in his first game back. By the time the middle of the season came around, he was fit enough to play, but a long way off competition standard. The club had two choices: scratch him for the year because the VFL was cactus or play him in the AFL and be prepared for him to be well off the pace. Getting games into his legs and confidence after two consecutive injuries in what was essentially his previous 2 games was important for his future. Remember, aside from round 1 in both years, Rowell has played all of his football in July-August of 2020 and June-August 2021. 17 games is a very small sample size and even at 80% Rowelly still influenced wins against Richmond, GWS and Carlton, basically knocking two of them out of finals. This is where I agree with the premise of the article. People should temper their expectations. Jason Horne-Francis is going to be a good player, but next year he is going to spend time getting tagged into misery, bludgeoned by bigger bodies and maybe even injured. Considering how many number ones go by the wayside or just don't measure up, there's a fair chance this sure thing is no such thing.
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
F/B winner and a great player is Walsh no doubt. I agree he is not a match winner. How many games has he won for Carlton ?
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
That’s a great first comment on the site. What State do you hail from ?
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
That’s true. Sheldrick is a strongly built bull and a ball magnet who wasn’t rated that high originally but looks to be a early second rounder. Great pickup at 22 for Geelong to replace their ageing mids. Freo gave up 22 for Clark. Angus is way better than Clark.
Boo
Guest
Chanon I totally agree culture is the ingredient most necessary at a footy club .Personally I'm all for a draft system that enables clubs to get the talent they need where as often they have to recruit the best of the rest regardless of how many they have in that position .AFL IMO needs to refine player selection and retention as the pool of players up to AFL standard isn't that big .As I said somebody may have a better idea than me .
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
Great article Stirling. I think North are insane to knock back the offers they received. The chance to have two first round picks and a player far outweighs just one possible star who is moving interstate to the weakest club.He will not be a match winner and 2-3 choices will always be better than one.
Damightyham
Roar Rookie
Agree about holding back on Francis-Horne. Would like to note, there is a young WA player named Angus Sheldrick who did a number on Francis-Horne and out performed as best on ground. Has really come on in recent times. The number one at present Horne may deserve. But in the long term may not be
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Interesting point Boo l remember back in 13-14 when we hit rock bottom & actually enjoyed the site of the young kids throwing body & soul McCartney teaching the young kids to play contested footy. A winning culture regardless of early picks is essential. These bottom clubs you describe can get better from within by playing as a team first mentality rather than as individuals fighting to stay in team.Selfless acts are the most important ingredient it galvanisers a club & spurs on the rest of the team. The coach & staff rally the troops to have this thought process your coach has been extremely successful in H/A games in the last decade. Bevo is striving to play with this blue print for success. Goldcoast for example have shown glimpses but the coach needs to reinforce this culture. Carlton & GC have a swarm of early picks but reinforcing the Winning Culture is a hard to manage & implement!
Angela
Roar Rookie
Jordan Dawson was 56
Jimmy
Guest
Let's hope not. Both insufferable bores.
Boo
Guest
Chanon your support of the doggies is similar to mine for Geelong and it's what we need to see .Firstly , I only used the Darcy example to illustrate a point not to be definitive .Yes father sons are good and should stay but under an open first round draft system a potential father son could go to his dad's club or for the lure of a larger signing on fee. go to another club .How are the bottom clubs going to get better if it is impossible to recruit the best .
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Right around the mid 2000s that appears to change where the pick 6s start playing 100 or so games across their careers but there are some massive busts in the early period of the draft. But even still they’re markedly lower than their first round counter parts
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
Recent history suggests that midfielders and playmakers are the most reliable no 1 draft picks. Lachie Whitfield and Sam Walsh for instance. Key forwards have a rough history. Boyd, Patton, McCartin - none of them still playing though injury rather than talent has been the main issue.
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
Yes it’s mythology that number 6 picks are duds. A few gems in there however. Jackson Macrae 2012 is a standout. Ben King 2018 and Denver Grainger- Barras last year will both be key position stars.