How about we play a simple game of snakes and ladders to take our minds off all this expansion talk?
Which team will move up next year, and which teams will move down? And why?
Let us start with the ladders, because we should all be trying to be more positive, right?
Bulldogs – ladder
This may be an obvious one, but the Bulldogs have recruited very well. I am not sure I have ever seen a roster turnover as dramatic as this.
Therein lies the first challenge – can Trent Barrett galvanise a new look roster? Ignoring that for a second, a starting middle of Paul Vaughan, Luke Thompson and Josh Jackson, with Tevita Pangai Jr and Raymond Faitala-Mariner on the edges. Add some handy bench forwards in Jack Hetherington, John Asiata and Seumanafeagai and this is a strong pack.
The edges are also potent, with Brent Naden, Braidon Burns, Josh Addo-Carr and Nick Cotric on the flanks. The spine is where it gets interesting, without any proven players in their positions.
The best teams have at least three top-five spine members – and the Dogs have none. Matt Dufty is very creative but has lapses, Jeremy Marshall-King is okay but not great, Burton is a future star but unproven and there is still no clear halfback.
All in all, the pack should take them a long way to competing for one of the final top-eight spots, but no further until they solve their spine issues. Teams like the Knights and Titans who are already there, and others who are improving I would currently have in front of them.
2021 finish: 16th (wooden spoon)
2022 prediction: Tenth
Broncos – ladder
The Broncos are another team who have recruited well, favouring the quality over quantity technique to date. Like the Dogs this year, they didn’t have any top-five spine members.
While they have a lot of roster issues to solve, a quality spine is a proven measure of success. They recruited Adam Reynolds, who is a top-two halfback. This is huge. He won’t so much convert chances into points as Cody Walker did, but he will create more chances by getting the team into the right areas.
The likes of Payne Haas and Kotoni Staggs will benefit, but again, it will not result in instant success. There are still many holes in the pack to support Haas and the outside backs are questionable outside Staggs.
There is also the matter of the spine, with only Reynolds a recognisable spine player. Jake Turpin and Tesi Niu are both without many runs on the board and there is still no clear 6.
Having said all this, there is big improvement in the Broncos this year and between Haas, Reynolds and Staggs, they could bully their way to beating many of the bottom-eight teams, but not quite enough to play finals.
Things are looking up for Kotoni and the Broncos (Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)
2021 finish: 14th
2022 prediction: Ninth
Dragons – ladder
A lot has been written about the mighty Dragons, so one more slight blurb shouldn’t hurt. I am bullish about their chances next year, I think they could be the only team that might be able to shake up the top six at the moment.
It is difficult to gauge where their 2021 level was given how much drama surrounded them throughout the year and years prior. We need to remember where they were earlier in the season, where they were able to beat Manly and Parramatta and challenge the Roosters and Melbourne until their ill-discipline ended in sin-bins or send-offs.
Let’s first consider that Jack de Belin is back and he is not only one of the best locks in the game, but the distraction of his trial and hole in the cap that was experienced the last few years is over. The Covidiot BBQ fallout is in the past and one overpaid (yet good) player is gone.
Last year, the Dragons struggled to make metres so they signed proven metre eaters in Aaron Woods and Francis Molo who also provide the odd offload and, in Molo’s case, a tackle bust or two. Moses Suli and Jaydn Su’A help answer some answers on the edges and provide some stability and strike.
There are also some good depth signings in case the suspensions and injuries strike again, in the form of Moses Mbye, Tautau Moga, George Burgess and Jack Gosiewski. Factor in that Bent Hunt and Zac Lomax could have a full season, and the youngsters Jayden Sullivan, Amone and Tyrell Sloan could bring the club to a new level.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
The spine has a quality 9 (not quite top five, though) in Andrew McCullough, and possible top-five halfback in Hunt as well as future superstars in Amone and Sloan.
Not a recipe for a premiership in 2022, but perhaps in future years. I think there is enough improvement and talent in this roster that they can push the better teams and challenge for the top six.
2021 finish: 11th
2022 prediction: Sixth
Roosters – ladder
The Roosters had a torturous year. They gained a lot of experience, but the way they were able to get as fair as they did was super impressive. They lost a lot of experience but add back in Luke Keary and Linsday Collins, who are both huge, huge ins. Paul Momorovski is also a big signing, plugging a major hole.
If the team can stay injury-free, Tedesco can roam around the back without the worries of the whole team on his back and be as destructive as we know he can be.
The Panthers have the monkey off their back, the Storm have lost a few. I am tipping the Roosters to salute.
Will Teddy lead the Tricolours to another premiership in 2022? (Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
2021 finish: Fifth
2022 prediction: Premiership winners
Rabbitohs – snake
The Rabbitohs went one pass from winning the premiership, the premiership which would make this fall from grace acceptable. Unfortunately, it didn’t pan out this way.
To add insult to injury, Souths have lost two massive pieces from their roster. The first and most influential is Wayne Bennett. Souths were shot mid-season, twice losing by 50 points. Twice. No team had ever won the GF having done so, and only a few had made it.
None had done so having had conceded 50 points twice. Yet, Bennet was able to galvanise them and take them on a winning steak to head into the finals. Without Bennett, will Souths be able to re-establish that defensive resolve?
Add in that there is no Reynolds. Reynolds didn’t add a large amount of line breaks or try assists, but he organised the team, kicked to corners and kicked 40-20s. Souths will lose that, and they may have to play in their own half more than they have.
They will still be super potent with Walker, Latrell Mitchel and Alex Johnston, particularly on the left. They have lost Dane Gagai and Sua from that GF team, which also shouldn’t be underestimated either. The Bunnies will still make the eight, but I don’t think they will get near the GF.
2021 finish: Runners up
2022 prediction: Seventh
Sharks – snake
Craig Fitzgibbon is highly rated, as are many of his recruits. With all due respect, Dale Finucane is past his best and spends a lot of time on the sidelines. Nicho Hynes is a talent but unproven in the halves and was playing in a Melbourne system.
Cameron McInnes is a solid hooker who will improve their defence, which they need, but won’t assist in attack much. In the meantime, they have lost their most consistent front rowers in Woods and Aiden Tolman, hoping the youngsters will stand up and they havegotrid of Shaun Johnson, who was a source of most of their attack, in favour of Matt Moylan.
Add in there is no guarantee Wade Graham returns or doesn’t get another knock, there is a new coach and systems and I think the Sharks really struggle, particularly with others like ladders above improving.
2021 finish – ninth
2022 prediction – 14th
I would normally add the Storm but have done for years only to be embarrassed. The truth is the remaining teams haven’t seemed to have done anything spectacular or bad to have changed their fate. Hopefully, the I’ve-Been-Everywhere-Man Dolphins will shake things up in 2023.
Which teams do you think will show the most improvement or regression?
Hairy’s Predicted 2022 ladder
1. Roosters
2. Panthers
3. Storm
4. Manly
5. Eels
6. Dragons
7. Souths
8. Titans
9. Knights
10. Broncos
11. Bulldogs
12. Canberra
13. Warriors
14. Sharks
15. Cowboys
16. Tigers
Ian Smith
Guest
Yep I think wabbits will slide big time , I think Wayne is well past his prime but had influence on the players, Reynolds will be major loss. I can see the Brisbane Donkeys improve big time
Andrew Ford
Guest
Stats don't tell the full story with a player like Woods, on paper he looks good, but as a sharks fan who watched all of his games closely, the benefit of his post contact metres is offset by the time it takes him to play the ball and his laziness in defence that directly lead to linebreaks and try's. He's a player that can run down hill well, but if the other dragons forwards aren't playing well Woods will surely not be the one to lift them
The Barry
Roar Guru
The top 6 were so dominant this year, all things being equal (injuries) I don’t think any of them slide far enough or the teams below them make enough ground to displace them Top 6 was virtually unbeatable by anyone outside the top 6…
Damien Calgaro
Roar Rookie
Dragons placed 6th is laughable!!
Eelsalmighty
Roar Rookie
I don't think $800k is serious overs for RCG, but it would probably be a bit over. That said, and if the Panthers are paying the $250k p.a for the next 3 years I think it's a great deal for us. I agree with your comments that Paulo is even more important, and am a bit concerned the $800k p.a for RCG may elevate his asking price, but I think we'll be right. My comment on $1mil. pa. for Gutho was just an over the top number to use as an example (how we have to wait for players to test the market if they're not ready to accept the best deal we can offer, and if someone gets way overs, we'd have to let them go). Whilst we can, and I assume we have, prioritised who we've started negotiations with first, when/if they accept a 'best offer' from us is to some extent out of our hands. I believe though, in Gutho's case it's more about the term than the money, and I'd expect them to reach a deal if that's the case. I also agree with wanting to keep Mahoney, but I expect we won't be able to. He's had multiple big, possibly 'overs' offers (according to media, and I wouldn't be surprised) and may also want to head back to Qld. If both are true, the top end/overs offers and if he does want to move back to Qld, then we'd probably lose him. If, and it appears likely, we lose a key player then we can use that money to get to the max price we're prepared to pay the others, and hopefully retain the rest, but we don't know who that player is yet.If we have to lose someone I was hoping it would be Matterson, as much as I do rate him, because it appears there may be some issues re his and BA's relationship and/or his desire to play at Parra. I also think we can afford to lose an edge forward more than any other position.
Hairy
Roar Rookie
I agree, I just think paying 800k for RCG is overs, even if the Panthers are chipping in. I would have split that money over Paulo and Mahoney and backed a younger player to step up as RCG is easier to replace. Definitely agree Gutho isn't worth the $1m he may be after, and not sure he has too many suitors either. Who would play fullback at Parra if Gutho left?
Eelsalmighty
Roar Rookie
Just you behave. That said, and ironically, I don't think we can keep them all the off contract players (for 2023) but I also think Gutho and Paulo would be the most likely to stay put, and Mahoney is the most likely to leave (especially if the $750k+ p.a offers are real).
Eelsalmighty
Roar Rookie
Hairy, good article, but I don't think your comment from the post above, "Of all their players to prioritize", is fair and/or accurate. I think (hope, but also believe) Parra have a max price/contract they're prepared to offer each of the players coming off contract and RCG was the first to agree to a deal that satisfied these conditions. I don't want to lose any of our core players coming off contract, but at the same time I don't want the club to pay (way) 'overs' for players based on a hierarchy of who we want to keep. For example, if someone offered $1mil+ p.a for Gutho, and as much as I recognise his importance to the club/want to keep him etc. I'd be happy for the club to let him go, wish him all the best, but wouldn't want us to match (potentially +) the offer because he's top of our list in the priority/hierarchy.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
Clint Gutherson, Reed Mahoney and Junior Paulo are still up for grabs, mighty. Souths don't need a hooker (even though I rate Mahoney) but Gutherson and Paulo would look great in cardinal and myrtle don't you think? Souths still have a pile of money left in their war chest after losing 11 players from their 2021 squad and only signing 5 players so far to replace them. Souths have all their best remaining players locked up so I have the popcorn ready and my feet are up waiting to enjoy the off-season NRL transfer madness. Enjoy! :silly:
Eelsalmighty
Roar Rookie
Should be 'technically incorrect' (yes, I see an irony)
Eelsalmighty
Roar Rookie
Yes, to his re-signing, but (hopefully a BIG NO to the snake). I like RCG, rate him highly etc, so I really like the signing. I'd also add (and I'm not privy to any inside info on this but) I think 're-signed' is technically correct. I (strongly) suspect he remains signed for 2022, has excerised his player option for 2023, and Parra has exercised their club option for 2024, and it's all been bundled up into a contract extension that includes an extra year (2025). The difference is the Panthers continue to subsidise him to tune of $250k p.a for the next 3 years, so Parra are effectively paying ~$2.5mil over the next 4 years. Very happy. More broadly, I actually liked Parra's statement today, even if the media didn't and/or pretended it didn't make sense etc.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
Yep. Reagan Campbell-Gillard has re-signed with the Eels. He has a three-year extension deal worth $2.4 mill ($800K per season) which means he is signed until the end of 2025. Eels ward off Dolphins raid with RCG inking $2.4 million extension RCG will sign a three-year extension worth more than $2.4 million as Parramatta set about resolving having 13 of their top 30 players off contract. * https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/eels/james-hooper-parramatta-eels-reagan-campbellgillard-nrl-eels-brad-arthur-junior-paulo-clint-gutherson/news-story/1d9c95afeba99b1fd3d99fb99f708f8f * Note the wording, will sign. So not signed yet but close to it. Clearly it's a done deal or they wouldn't have let the media get word of it.
Hairy
Roar Rookie
Did Parra just sign RCG on $800k per year? Of all their players to prioritize. Looks like the 2023 edition will feature the Parramatta Snakes.
Dionysus
Guest
I could not understand the Reynolds one. I kep't thinking that Souths would cave at the last minute but they didn't. Broncos did well in picking him up.
Dionysus
Guest
Hairy, I certainly think they will do that and unless Munster has a mammoth year in 2022, I can see him being one of the first to go. He is definitely on a one more strike and your gone anyway so he might just cut and run. As for levelling the competition, targeting Penrith and Melbourne players is all well and good but for everyone that leaves, you are putting dollars back in their salary caps. Players going to those clubs will be going because they can see a very good chance of playing finals footy and even getting to a GF so they will tend to accept less dollars than most clubs. Add to that the well regarded youngsters development programme at Penrith and Melbourne's extraordinary ability to attract great talent on low dollars (just look at this year's signings) and then take them to the next level suggests that even that won't derail these two. As a Storm fan, I see melbourne slipping down the ladder in 2022 but still stay in the top 4 from where they will make another GF assault.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
It was due to be released at NRL.com today and at 3:42pm they said it has been postponed and would not be released today.
Malo
Guest
Same 8 , same crap 8 buying donkeys. Tigers, Broncos, Dragons , Knights and Cowboys. Dogs to be the big improvers
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
I've supported the Bulldogs since I was a kid (and yes, the Storm as well since 1998!) and 2022 is looking like the most intriguing season I can remember.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
It doesn't take a genius to work out why Souths have been drawn to play the Broncos at Suncorp stadium in round 1 next season. Join the dots Pete and see where it leads. Btw, the Roosters draw was as hard as Souths in 2021. The Storm had an easier draw and for two years in a row the Panthers were inside the top 4 easiest draws in the competition. Sounds like the NRL were trying to manufacture a result for the biggest and fastest growing demographic region in Sydney.
NSWelshman
Roar Rookie
I dunno Nat…..the way everyone carried on about Sualii I thought he’d have shown something…but I haven’t seen anything other than an average young player. Yeah maybe he might show his talents in a few years but there are other youngsters way better than him.