Like every serious sports fan, I consider myself a better selector than the people who actually do the job.
When it comes to the English cricket team, I’m probably right, in red-ball cricket at least, because their selection policy has kept their team perennially second rate despite all its inherent advantages (money, pinching the cream of talent from West Indies and South Africa, etc).
So, in the interests of making bold pronouncements which will probably blow up in my face, I’d like to declare how England could win the Ashes this summer.
I know everyone’s expecting Australia to win 5-0, 4-0 or at least 3-1 and I get why: our attack against that dicey English top order, David Warner on home wickets, Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne, Cameron Green is so wonderful and did you know he was tall, etc, etc.
And yet, and yet…
Australia are vulnerable.
I really like Tim Paine, but his leadership wasn’t that great last summer. How will his form hold up, especially with the media salivating like a dog over the lamb chop that is the promise of Josh Inglis? Or there’s option B – hey, did you know Alex Carey played AFL? And the pro-Steve-Smith-back-as-captain lobby won’t let any Paine mistakes go by.
There’s also the Justin Langer in the era of COVID factor.
JL’s scary-eyes intensity would be hard enough at the best of times but the team’s going to have to be working in quarantine bubbles with Mr “How good was A Star is Born” who has (never forget this, because his allies seem to) power over whether the players get picked in every single format in the game.
I’ll repeat that – Justin Langer has selector power over every player in every single format of the game. Why should they approach him directly with criticisms or keep criticisms “in house”? He’s just the coach! Anyway, his magic clearly hasn’t been working for everyone in the side.
There’s an unsettled batting line-up. Will Pucovski with concussion. Do they bring back Travis Head? Is it Usman Khawaja or Marcus Harris? Who is No.5? What if Green breaks down? What if Warner and Smith don’t save the day?
Do we play Glenn Maxwell in Tests?
(Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
There’s some issues with the bowling… do they rotate the quicks (answer “yes”, clearly “yes”, but people seem afraid to tell it to Mitch Starc or something despite its success in the 2019 Ashes). Do they try Mitch Swepson? And please, for the love of all that is Holy, give Michael Neser a Test.
And there’s the captaincy saga. How much rope does Paine get? Smith or Pat Cummins?
None of these things are fatal but they are all fault lines which could crack if England put Australia under a little pressure.
But can they?
The main issues with England winning here, IMHO, are their batting, bowling, wicketkeeping and captaincy.
So, nothing serious.
But nothing unfixable either.
I’d like to address these while explaining who I’d pick for the first Test in Brisbane (injuries notwithstanding).
1) Rory Burns
A true “I guess he’ll do” selection. No one seems to like Burns, not even the English side, but he’s the least worst opener they’ve got. “He’s got a weird technique,” scream the purists. “Weird! Weird! Weird! Burn him!” (I made up that last bit.)
I guess he’ll do.
2) Haseeb Hameed
A “light on the hill” selection. And sometimes the light does come on the hill. Haseeb’s career has had a few ups and downs to put it mildly, but he’s in at the moment and doing okay. That FCA of 33 looks wobbly but he is young.
Always try for some stability in your opening combo. The current two are fine. Dom Sibley is on the Lions tour if they need a backup.
3) Joe Root
His batting has returned to high gear. Great player. Uninspiring captain. Do you need to be a good captain to win in Australia? It helps being a complete prick with a fast bowling arsenal (Douglas Jardine, Illingworth, Len Hutton).
Failing that, you have to be at least tough (Andrew Strauss) and press home any advantage. I’m not sure Root can do this. He strikes me as a more “Mike Smith”-style captain, who led England out here in 1965-66. Mind you, Smith’s team held them to 1-1. And I can’t see any replacement options.
Eoin Morgan has a better Test record than some of England’s top six but that ship seems to have sailed. May as well keep Root.
Joe Root celebrates a Test ton against India at Trent Bridge (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
4) Josh Bohannon
My first wild card.
He’s not in the squad. But he is in the Lions side and will be out in Australia. He has a FCA of 44 and can bowl a bit. I’d go for him purely on the basis of that first class average. For whatever reason, there are a lot of English batsmen who average just below 40 at first class level, hardly any who average over it.
Only 36 first class games, but I’m sorry – he should be in the squad ahead of Zak “Why do I keep being picked” Crawley. No, I haven’t forgotten Ben Stokes. Keep reading.
5) Dawid Malan
Decent player. One of those “average just under 40 at first class level, I guess he’ll do” types. Made a century here. Been around. In the side now. May as well keep him. If he doesn’t click, replace him with Dan Lawrence. No, still haven’t forgotten Ben Stokes.
6) Ollie Pope
Is Pope the new Graham Hick/Mark Rampkarash? Or someone who just needs a bit more patience? Will the light ever truly go on? That first class average is tasty… despite being 20 runs more than his Test average. Things are getting on now. Still, give him an Aussie summer.
7) Ben Stokes
There is is. I’ve got him at seven – by all means bat him higher but the key thing is I feel very strongly that to win the Ashes, England have to play six specialist bats.
The only time they’ve won the Ashes here with five specialists since 1971 was in 1986-87 when England had Ian Botham, who totally dominated Australia psychologically at the time, and Australia had to field a third-choice pace attack due to the South African rebel tours, and in ’78-79 during World Series Cricket when England had the Botham-Miller nexus and Australia went out of their way to help England via their selection policy.
England won with six specialist batters in 2010-11, and drew 1-1 with that in 1965-66 (under Mike Smith) but for some reason this has been considered… unmanly? Wrong? Too successful? Not Australian?
(Photo by Surjeet Yadav/Getty Images)
Grrr, gotta be aggressive. Grrrr.
Well, the five batsman method was part of the disasters of 2017-18, 2013-14, 2006-07 and 2002-03.
If England had a top-class all-rounder to counterbalance Stokes, like Moeen Ali in his prime, maybe they could do it. Or a super ace fast bowler and some major league batsmen – that worked in ’70-71 and ’54-55.
But they don’t.
They need to think differently.
England consistently lose down here because of their batting.
I know what people (and the English brains trust, probably) will say. “Twenty wickets. Gotta get 20 wickets. Grrrr.”
Yep, you do need 20 wickets.
I think you’ll have more chance of getting them defending big totals than small ones.
Play Stokes as a bowler. Don’t make the mistake England did in 2006-07 playing Andrew Flintoff at 6.
8) Ben Foakes (wk)
Better keeper than Jos Buttler. Better batsman than Buttler. Absurd he isn’t in the side. He’s out here with the Lions. Use him. Stop wasting everyone’s time.
9) Ollie Robinson/Chris Woakes
Rotate them. Not rocket science.
10) Stu Broad/James Anderson
Rotate them. Rest them between games. And make them go all out in the Tests they do play.
11) Jack Leach
Play your best spinner. If the captain has no faith in the spinner, then play four pacemen. Again, stop wasting everyone’s time with trundlers who can hold the bat a bit.
This is a conservative approach, I know. But it’s one that comes from watching England get smashed here tour after tour. Under this structure, England bat down to 8 (9, if Woakes plays), and still have four bowling options plus two part-timers (Root and Bohannen) to rest the strike bowlers, who can be rotated from Test to Test.
And if Stokes can’t bowl, then don’t pick him because then he plays as a batsman who can’t be dropped if he doesn’t score runs because he can bowl even though he’s not bowling and if you think this is weird, it is, but it’s exactly what used to happen with Shane Watson.
Maybe this won’t work but it’s a hell of a lot better than their bowlers having to defend totals of 200.
Lord Ted Said
Roar Rookie
Are Anderson and Broad really going to put in say, 40 overs each test, on harder ground, and bounce back ok? It's a tight schedule with 4 days between Brisbane and Adelaide, 6 days between Adelaide and Melbourne then again 6 between Melbourne and Sydney and 5 until Perth. Then you've got, among others, Wood, Woakes and Stokes - all known to be a bit brittle. And that's before factoring in a few scorchers to further sap the will. And amongst all that you've got the ball bouncing at a convenient height to catch the shoulder of Roots bat. 2-1 with a couple of draws due to anticipated wet weather on the east coast and the general lack of batting depth on both sides. Which could make for an exciting series, much like the last one in England. Here's hoping...
Brian
Guest
Need 5 bowlers at the GABB but 4 maybe ok for Adelaide. Stokes, Robinson, Wood, Broad, Leach for the GABBA then Stokes, Woakes, Anderson, Wood/Broad in Adelaide. If you aren't behind after Adelaide you have a great shot. Australia's home record from 1-1 is usually to go on self-implode and lose but you need to be 1-1 or better after Adelaide.
Simoc
Guest
Root is a great batsman and certainly a better batter than Mark Waugh ever was. Stats are irrelevant going forward. This looks like a formidable English team with similar weaknesses to Australia. Our quicks love to attack Burns legs which is his strongest point. He gets confidence and goes on to score runs. They should be outside off where he has nothing to offer. We have a tactically weak captain but Root is a pretty average captain as well so its pretty even there. If the opening batsman of the team batting first in the first test can score a dominant century I pick that team to win the series. Otherwise, it will be a close battle.
matth
Roar Guru
Unfortunately those good performances by Burns are some years ago now and he hasn’t been standing out. Same with Bancroft. If it’s not Harris or Khawaja, they may have to look to converting Maddinson or Renshaw back to opening or gamble on a rookie, like Street
Mitchell Hall
Roar Rookie
Why can’t you be a selector and why does the job always go to ex players all the time? Another great article and I can see that batting line up collapsing all through this Ashes summer.
Dave
Guest
Yes, probably fair based on Root's previous tours here. But I had a hunch he'd been bailing England out of tricky situations with substantial runs more recently.
Clear as mud
Guest
Big whoop. They all failed. Arthur and Clarke almost killed cricket. Watson came home for a test Clarke was always on the “he has to bowl” rubbish attack line. Watto would make an 80 and it wasn’t enough for Clarke. So he bowled him into the ground, then complained when he couldn’t bowl Ponting knew how to exploit the quality all rounder. Bearing in mind Clarke we made skipper when he could have been just as easily dropped, at a time when Watson had been batting the house down, the selectors should have told Clarke to go jump with his input
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Not sure what you’re talking about? I have said already that I was aware that this year had been a bit of an anomaly for Root in this regard. Given that, what do you think needs to be better researched? Can you be specific? No, probably not.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Come again? This dialogue with Targa and Dave has been cordial by my reckoning. And you are rude, not to mention ignorant, to refer to mine as ‘Swiss cheese collection of pseudo stats’ when in fact, they are properly dissected stats. _______ The only thing that has ever seriously annoyed me is the constant accusations of bias and manipulation, if you had been following properly.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Yeah a bit harsh in recent times, sure, I still say it’s been the pattern over his whole career, especially in Ashes battles. We’ll see how he does in pressure situations this Ashes series. ________ Thanks for going to the effort by the way.
Mitcher
Guest
I suspect it safer, you conduct the research. Apply your star (stats) wipe, and advise the non-believers that Mark, in fact, walked on the moon before Steve.
Mitcher
Guest
It’s interesting for someone who appears to get so cut up about people challenging your Swiss cheese collection of pseudo stats, that you have such a resolute (aka rude) approach to countering opinions that differ to your own.
Dave
Guest
Here you go: 228 runs at Galle (came in at 2-17) and batting second after SL made 138. 186 at Galle (came in at 2-5) and batting second after SL made 381. 218 at Chennai (2-63) and batting first in the opening Test of a series in India (match-winning, 536-minute innings). 64 at Nottingham (2-42) and batting first in a team score of 183 (India then made 278). 109 at Nottingham (2-46) and batting third after Eng trailed India by 95 runs on the first innings. 180* at Lord’s (2-23) and batting second after India made 364. 226 at Hamilton (2-24) and batting second after NZ made 375. Granted, the initial 228 was made in response to a low Sri Lanka total but England had lost two early wickets. Of Root's 2021 50-plus scores, the 121 made at Lord's (2-159), batting second after India only made 78, is arguably the outlier by your rubric. To say that Root “rarely makes a big score when coming to the crease with the pressure on” is a tad harsh, no?
Dave
Guest
Here you go: 228 runs at Galle (came in at 2-17) and batting second after SL made 138 186 at Galle (came in at 2-5) and batting second after SL made 381 218 at Chennai (2-63) and batting first in the opening Test of a series in India (match-winning, 536-minute innings) 64 at Nottingham (2-42) and batting first in a team score of 183 (India then made 278) 109 at Nottingham (2-46) and batting third after Eng trailed India by 95 runs on the first innings 180* at Lord’s (2-23) and batting second after India made 364 226 at Hamilton (2-24) and batting second after NZ made 375 Granted, the initial 228 was made in response to a low Sri Lanka total but England had lost two early wickets. Of Root's 2021 50-plus scores, the 121 made at Lord's (2-159), batting second after India only made 78, is arguably the outlier by your rubric. To say that Root “rarely makes a big score when coming to the crease with the pressure on” is a tad harsh, no?
badmanners
Roar Rookie
But he's not an all rounder . He's a batsmen who bowls some useful overs. In the same way you say (despite him being the second best batsman) that he doesn't deserve a spot in the top six, as a bowler who averages only 2.3 wickets at an average of 31.4 per match he certainly doesn't deserve a bowling spot. I appreciate you putting up some content Stephen Vagg. :thumbup:
Targa
Roar Rookie
2021, 12 tests 2 in SL vs Sri Lanka 4 in India vs India 2 in England vs NZ 4 in England vs India He did poorly against NZ but really well in all the other series.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Yeah I totally understand if you don't have the time - I just wondered if you knew off the top of your head that's all. Maybe I'll try and find time later myself. So what are we looking at? Three tests in NZ, Three in SL, four in India and then six at home against NZ and India? Just so I know where to look ....
Targa
Roar Rookie
If you want to know check cricinfo scorecards. Sorry, I don't have the time. Anyway he's pretty bad at no 3. Even worse than Mark Waugh. :laughing: :laughing: Just kidding
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Yes, but what were the match situations? I know there have been some exceptions this year to the Root rule, but what I mean is that 2 for 40 in reply to 170 is far less pressure than 2 for 70 in response to 340. Starting a 3rd innings with a 180 lead and going in at 2 for 50 is actually a real scoreline of 2 for 230 and that is a far more impregnable position than 2 for 230 in first innings of the match, because your opposition are more more likely to match 230 plus in reply in second innings of the match than they are to successfully chase 230 plus in 4th innings. ______________________________ What I am saying is what were the contexts of his innings this year?
Targa
Roar Rookie
Well this year he's been going in at 4 and often England has been 2 down for less than 50 as the top 3 has been really struggling yet he's had his best ever year of batting so has usurped Williamson and Smith as the highest ranked batsman in the world. Burns, Sibley, Hameed, Crawley and co the top 3 have really struggled. Malan might be a more secure 3, but Root has done best at 4 despite coming in early.