As we enter the business end of this World Cup the qualification scenarios have somewhat simplified and here I would like to share what I have worked out.
Most of the games from here on are going to be really interesting in terms of their significance as far as semifinal qualification is earned
Right from the beginning Group 1 was looking tougher and tighter than Group 2. It seemed Group 1 was the pool to avoid for established sides but no one realised at the start what a disadvantage it was for the established sides in Group 2.
The weaker minnows on one hand did provide easier passage for big teams. However, it also meant one bad game for a big team against another big team would dent its chances significantly, i.e. more than it would have on loosing to a good side in Group 1, as you still could have hoped and backed the weaker teams like Sri Lanka or Bangladesh to create an upset or two against bigger teams.
No one can explain it better than Virat Kohli himself as India learnt its lesson in a very hard way. India lost two games in group stage and were already told their fate as no one could seriously back the likes of Namibia, Scotland or even Afghanistan to beat giants like NZ, Pakistan or India.
Among all twelve teams only one team has confirmed its berth in the semi-finals and that is Pakistan, which means any one of the remaining eleven teams can still fail to qualify mathematically.
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Scotland are the three teams that are already eliminated.
Now here I would like to share my summary on qualification scenarios
Both teams have only one game left and they will play against each other.
If England wins
It will confirm England’s semifinal qualification as top in Group 1 with 10 points.
South Africa will end up on six points.
Australia still have two games left with four points.
The options are: a) win both and qualify with eight points;
b) win one and lose one to finish on six points and compete with SA on NRR;
c) Lose both to confirm elimination;
d) West Indies can also enter the race for second spot with six points if they win both of their remaining games.
e) Among South Africa, WI and AUS, South Africa have a far superior NRR, while WI is far behind and AUS are right in the middle
If South Africa wins
a) South Africa finishes with eight points to compete with England for that first position;
b) Australia can enter the race with eight points if they win both of their remaining games;
c) Both games are knockout for Australia as they must finish on eight points;
d) West Indies gets eliminated straightaway with no chance of getting to eight points.
In group 2, it is straightforward
a) Pakistan have qualified already;
b) if New Zealand win both of their remaining games, they go through with Pakistan;
c) If New Zealand lose one they will finish on 6, Afghanistan and India can go maximum six as well in which case NRR comes in to play in which case Afghanistan looks way ahead as of New Zealand and IND;
d) if New Zealand loose both it is between Afghanistan and India;
e) India should finish on six points as they play Scotland and Namibia next;
f) Namibia have not been eliminated officially as they can still reach six points theoretically.
Sedz
Guest
Get your basics right. This is an ICC tournament neither India nor England control the pitch preparation. Having said that India has no chance to reach SF.
Simoc
Guest
Can't see Australia doing well enough. Finch has been swinging from the bootlaces and got lucky to date. I can't see the luck lasting. If we beat the Windies that will be a great effort from this mediocre team. There are better options available than Finch and Wade so I reckon blame the selectors.
Stuckbetweenindopak
Roar Rookie
Thank you very much. I appreciate your kind words!
La grandeur d'Athéna
Roar Rookie
Not expecting any upset, it could be anybody, but lots of question will be answered during England v/s South Africa game. England team has struggled against spinners thoroughly,and South Africa has two world class spinners. With Kagiso Rabada in form, it is going to be interesting to see how England plays them. If England lose against South Africa, i would say they would lose against New Zealand too given New Zealand has two very decent spinners in their side. Barring injury it is hard to see Australia beating Pakistan in these conditions truth be told. So there is a possibility it could be an entire Group B finale.
Targa
Roar Rookie
Nah if NZ goes through we will be playing England in the semis.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
If you mean Eng v NZ in the final, that won't happen.
Paul
Roar Guru
" Expect the BCCI to make a complaint when their team is bundled out in the pool stage." A complaint about what? This is their tournament as hosts so I can;t really see what complaints they could have?
Frank delosa
Guest
Nice comments Jeff, I agree with your viewpoints. A few observations to ponder during the tea break at the Shield Game where Maddinson is batting himself into a test spot. Tony Donderlinger is watching too which is good. Here we go: 1. India don't deserve to make the semi's. NZ to put that to bed tonight with a crumpling win vs the Namibia. Kohli to act like a desperado in the game vs Scotland, begging with the umpire and being disrespectful in general. 2. Expect the BCCI to make a complaint when their team is bundled out in the pool stage. 3. Windies will be a odd game. they are worldbeaters or they dream of lazing by the pool with a coconut drink in hand. 4. Gayle needs to retire. He looks like he is just milking it for as long as possible. He will probably now score 100+ vs Aus tmrw nite 5. Zampa needs a haircut 6. All non Movember mo's need to go. Some of them are just pathetic growlers. 7. There are fridges of soda pop on the boundaries. Do they expect these athletes to drink this stuff? I understand that the sponsor is coka cola 8. Expected a dusty, churning pitch if India makes the semi's 9. England is be pipped in the semi final 10. Whats the deal with the ordinary crowds at the tourney? 11. The end of the India/Afghan game was a bit strange to say the least.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
That's right. It's about having the right players in the right positions at the right times.
Republican
Guest
Yeah but they always lift v Australia. They will again.
Republican
Guest
Have to fancy England to be in the final. I reckon NZ will make it as well - courtesy of their soft draw & being in the weaker grouping. They are capable of defeating anyone on their day. WI will defeat Australia while Saffa are capable of upsetting the Sassrnach.
Paul
Roar Guru
at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. There are all manner of ways to win matches, though it helps being able to hit long when the last over comes and a team needs 20 to win.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
We're not as big a hitting team as some think Paul. Finch has probably always been the stand out, but IMO Marsh is the cleanest and biggest hitter of the lot.
Paul
Roar Guru
gee those numbers from Warner and Smith are a surprise, Jeff. I guess ditto with Maxwell, though at least two of the games have been low scoring.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Pakistan is hot and cold? :laughing:
Jeff
Roar Rookie
That should be Finch 6x 6s
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Fair to say India and NZ will win their games against Scotland and Namibia. So it all comes down to AFG v NZL on Sunday. 90% odds one of those two go through based on the outcome of the match. India is almost gone IMO given NRR. -- Australia beats Windies and that's that. Windies look uneasy against the slow bowlers all tournament. It's a day game and IMO Australia MUST weight its attack with spinners. The Windies have been the biggest six hitting team in T20s in recent years - with that goes a high % of dot balls - but this tournament their batsmen seem to be more hit and miss clearing the ropes. They are a somewhat aging side which may have something to do with it and perhaps no surprise that Gayle, Russell and Pollard only have 3x sixes between them. They're still up there tournament wise, but not clear of the pack. Of the teams that have played 4 matches (sixes hit): - Afghanistan 29 - West Indies 22 - England 22 (though 12 from Buttler alone) - Pakistan 21 - Australia 13 - South Africa 12 Australia's game against Windies is at Abu Dhabi, which is a big ground and the biggest of the UAE venues. Australia's key will be for the spinners to keep it tight and then get the Windies mistiming off the slow bowlers with their big shots and getting caught short of the rope IMHO. Australia tends to play more along the ground and find the gap. I think this will suit them at the expansive Abu Dhabi ground, outside of the powerplay. Marsh must play #3 if we lose a wicket inside the powerplay. Smith needs to be held back if we lose a couple of wickets early, until the 6 overs are completed. Smith isn't a big hitter, he's about finding the gaps. Finch 97BF, 11x 4s, 1x 6s Warner 73BF, 16x 4s, 0x 6s Smith 65BF, 0x 4s, 0x 6s Maxwell 36BF, 2x 4s, 0x 6s Wade 28BF, 4x 4s, 0x 6s Stoinis 27BF, 5x4s, 1x 6 Marsh 22BF, 3x 4s, 1x 6s
Paul
Roar Guru
This has to be a first for The Roar; receiving a first piece from a writer living in Kashmir! Congratulations on a good first article. I note you don't have English as a first language, which makes this article all the better. You've done a neat job summarizing the options, but for mine, England is a certainty, even if they lose against the Saffers, thanks to their net run rate. Bavuma's guys would need to belt them as badly as England belted Australia to see England out and I doubt that could happen. Equally sure the Black Caps should make it through, with only Namibia and Afghanistan to play. The crunch game is obviously Australia and the Windies. Given the T20 talent in that West Indies side, only a fool or a supreme optimist would say with 100% certainty the Aussie will win. I look forward to reading more articles. Thanks for writing this one.
Frank delosa
Guest
'allo mate your eel and kipper pie is ready guvna. Git down ta Tarry Lane and Kensington on Pride for de pie. ENG 3-1 in Ashes matey. PS. I been ta Souf London markets once.
Soap Dodger
Roar Rookie
The same "red hot Black Caps" who struggled to get past the Scotland team which was belted by Afghanistan and Namibia?