NRL 2022 Radar: Canberra must find X-factor in forwards to make finals return

By Paul Suttor / Expert

He caused Canberra plenty of drama at the negotiating table but the Raiders miss English forward John Bateman’s even greater unpredictability on the playing field.

Last season they didn’t seem to have that X-factor player who could produce a line break at the drop of the hat or muscle up to opposing packs like Bateman did in the Raiders’ golden run to the 2019 grand final.

Too much of the attacking responsibility fell on the shoulder of star five-eighth Jack Wighton, who was unable to back up the form which took him all the way to the Dally M Medal in 2020, a year after he was a deserving but rare recipient of man of the match honours in the losing side of the premiership decider against the Roosters.

Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has alleviated the pressure on Wighton with the acquisition of Titans playmaker Jamal Fogarty to replace George Williams at halfback but for Canberra to get back into serious premiership contention, he needs to fire up the Bat(eman) signal and find a forward who can give them that something special when a game is stuck in arm wrestle mode.

Veteran prop Josh Papali’i can be the enforcer but he doesn’t seem to have the same impact as he did at his peak a couple of years ago – he’s still only 29 so he could potentially rediscover his elite attacking prowess.

Last season his tackle breaks, post-contact and overall running metres were the lowest they’ve been in the last five years when he has established himself as one of the premier middle forwards in the NRL.

And it can’t just be Papali’i providing spark in the forwards.

Second-rower Hudson Young was on a rapid upward trajectory, lock Joseph Tapine is more than capable of consistently making the tackle busts his team desperately needs, along with Corey Harawira-Naera.

Corey Horsburgh is another forward whose career hit a plateau last season when he was limited to just eight games at Canberra, as well as a couple at Canterbury on loan, due to a wrist injury but he’s on Queensland’s radar as a potential Origin representative of the future and he could make a big leap in 2022.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Stuart has tended to roll with one of the larger packs in the NRL which may have contributed to the team’s tendency to cough up leads in the closing stages of games.

If he goes for more mobility in 2022, someone like Bulldogs recruit Adam Elliott could be a handy addition as a workaholic lock or perhaps shifting Josh Hodgson to the No.13 jersey in his last year before joining Parramatta with Tom Starling as the permanent hooker could do the trick.

Continuing the theme of recapturing the 2019 vibe, the Raiders have announced they are bringing former NSW winger Nick Cotric back from an underwhelming season at Canterbury.

The Raiders have clearly played the Bulldogs off the break on this one – they refused to pay an inflated price for Cotric because they thought he was a top-line winger but lacked the passing skills to play centre.

Canterbury signed him on a lucrative three-year deal and abandoned the centre experiment mid-season and will now be paying part of Cotric’s contract for the next couple of years while he’s back Canberra, who’ve locked him away until the end of 2024.

Nick Cotric. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

With winger Bailey Simonsson switching to Parramatta recently and centre Curtis Scott looking to follow suit if he can be registered by the NRL after a nightclub assault last season, the Raiders have a few question marks in the outside backs.

If Cotric and veteran Jordan Rapana fill the wing spots, Seb Kris is likely to be one centre and the whole of Canberra, the ACT and anyone with a fondness for green milk will be hoping captain Jarrod Croker can overcome his knee problems.

The ongoing issue has clearly affected his mobility and effectiveness over the past year and underwent stem-cell surgery in a bid to salvage his career.

With three years left on his deal, the 31-year-old goal-kicker, who is nine games shy of 300 games at the club, is hoping his rehab plan works over the off-season so that he can again become a potent scoring threat on Canberra’s left edge.

What’s new

The halfback position, which became such an issue when George Williams made his controversial mid-season exit, has been filled by former Titans skipper Jamal Fogarty. Seasoned forward Adam Elliott has settled in after his stint at the Bulldogs was soured after a series of alcohol-related off-field indiscretions while Cowboys prop Peter Hola will also boost Canberra’s already considerable depth up front.

Star on the rise

Hudson Young earned an unwanted reputation when he first came into prominence a few years ago for a couple of lengthy bans for recklessly raking his fingers near the eyes of opponents. He’s not only learned the lesson by avoiding such grubby acts since, he’s become one of Canberra’s better-performed forwards and if his rapid progress continues, he could even find himself in the NSW Origin squad if injuries rule out some incumbents.

Who’s under the pump

Jarrod Croker’s career hinges on the success of the knee surgery he underwent in October. His form, particularly in defence, has been down compared to his previous decade-plus in the Canberra centres. The NRL community will be hoping one of the stalwarts of the game can end his career on his own terms, not via a medical retirement or after losing his spot in the team.

Best-case scenario

As it stands, the Raiders would need a helluva lot to go right for them to break back into the top four. If Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad can rediscover his best after injury ruined last season for the fullback, then that would go a long way towards Canberra being able to score enough points to compete with the top teams.

Worst-case scenario
They look likely candidates for the lower half of the top eight but as we saw last season, they can blow leads and sometimes struggle to get out of second gear so the Green Machine may miss the finals again for a second straight year despite having a strong roster in pretty much every position on the field.

Round 1 predicted team

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Corey Horsburgh
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joseph Tapine
14. Tom Starling
15. Corey Harawira-Naera
16. Emre Guler
17. Ryan Sutton

Others: Jordan Rapana (suspended), Adam Elliott, Matt Frawley, Albert Hopoate, Peter Hola, Trey Mooney, Harry Rushton, Xavier Savage, Brad Schneider, Harley Smith-Shields, Matthew Timoko, Semi Valemei, Sam Williams

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The Crowd Says:

2021-12-17T09:37:45+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


Bateman was fantastic in 2019 but a bit of a passenger in 2020. George similarly faded in his second season and his whinging must have been a big distraction to the team. Curtis Scott's off field incidents were unhelpful as well. And Hodgson has been told this will be his last season. Hopefully by pruning out the deadwood we can see who really wants to play in green.

2021-12-17T09:20:26+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


As Harry has said the recruitment of Crawley as the attack coach may provide the spark we've been lacking. And Ricky has taken the team to 3 preliminary finals in 5 seasons which many have forgotten about

2021-12-17T09:14:32+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


The Raiders will want to show something after the disappointment of 2021.

2021-12-17T09:11:25+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


Jarrod will retire before he goes to the Dolphins

2021-12-17T09:08:59+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


Ryan James and Dynamic Lui have both gone along with Sia Soliola. Ricky is banking on Cory having more luck with injury next season.

2021-12-17T09:05:55+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


CNK is a no brainer for full back – his cover defence and carries out of defence were missed terribly last season. Not sure where Savage fits in – but he is fantastic cover for Rapana and Cotric and a future star. I suspect HSS and Tomoko will play in the centres if Jarrod Croker fails to recover. Some pundits think the Raiders look thin in the backs but a back 3 of CNK, Rapana and Cotric ooks pretty strong to. me.

2021-12-17T08:56:14+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


I think Fogarty will prove to be one of the smartest buys of the off season

2021-12-17T08:54:08+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


Water under the bridge

2021-12-16T19:13:07+00:00

Taree Raider

Guest


The Raiders roster is great, there is only one weakness in the squad of 30, Jarrod Croker. Respectfully he is not at NRL standard any more, regardless if he is 100% fit or not. The game has passed him by. But the fact that he was signed by Ricky Stuart until the end of the 2024 season shows you what the only problem is at the Raiders. Ricky! He has always played favourites. If the saying past behaviour is a good indicator of future behaviour then he's always going to do this. You only have to look at Ricky's past coaching gigs to see that he creates his own problem, the Roosters booted him, the Sharks booted him, he was sacked as the Australian Coach, that would be about as hard as Coaching QLD during their golden run, but he stuffed that one up. The Blues speared him, Parramatta Eels was a disaster, now he's at the Raiders. Ricky has proven that he is the problem, every die hard fan has heard his spray of the players, it's always someone else's fault. But the way I see it, Ricky you are the problem, you've been in charge there 8 years & there was a very nice peak, but it's on a downhill slide. As a fan I feel like the energy I invest is futile. Maybe Don Furner is to blame, he will never sack Ricky & Ricky is always right, so it's not his fault. The Raiders have the players to perform across the whole squad. There is considerable depth in the backs & forwards. Having CNK back at fullback will make a considerable difference to the team. Cotric will make a great centre if he's playing in a team that is willing to attack. His biggest problem in his last couple of years playing at the Raiders was that Croker didn't give him the ball. 2016 the Raiders played with total unpredictability, they were the team no one wanted to play, what a season, we didn't win the comp but as a fan it was great. 2017 Ricky says we have to concentrate on defence, just like every other team. In the trial game at Queenbeyan the Knights put 60 on us. It didn't improve from their, the Poms came & gave us a totally new dimension, a point of difference & we almost made it. Ricky upset the lot of them & it's been a shit show ever since. How about 2022 we go back to the attack focused play of 2016, be different to all the other teams, make their defensive structures useless, defence wins competitions. True, but unpredictable attack in the age of 6 agains will not favour a defensive focus. Nothing else has worked lately Ricky, why not try this, if it fails. Blame me. Better still, just say nothing to anyone & let McFadden steer the ship

2021-12-16T07:54:01+00:00

Causation if only

Guest


Cmon raiders , 2022 is our year

2021-12-16T04:08:21+00:00

Albo

Roar Rookie


There was a whole pack in Canberra not getting much game time this year ?

2021-12-16T03:51:46+00:00

Nat

Roar Guru


I really hope the Broncos can keep Herbie. If the $500k rumours are true it will be a tough task. Oates can see his days out in Q Cup, move Herbie to the wing (where he came through with Norths) and let Cobbo and Nui battle out for center/FB roles.

2021-12-16T03:42:50+00:00

souvalis

Roar Rookie


There’d be a few Raiders forwards who’d be agreeable to change of scenery, you’d think.

2021-12-16T03:32:51+00:00

souvalis

Roar Rookie


I’d rather Herbie, too.

2021-12-16T02:22:03+00:00

Randy

Roar Rookie


Kris doesn't offer much and I don't see him as a long term option. There was talk of Nikol Klokstad moving to the centres with Savage taking over fullback which gives us a little more X factor at the back. I haven't written Croker off completely yet. I remember everyone saying Rapana was done earlier in the year and he ended up being one of out best players by the end of the season.

2021-12-16T02:01:26+00:00

Harry

Guest


Though understandably most of the focus is on the playing roster, Raiders fans are excited also about some of the coaching recruitments that have been made this off-season. Specifically the club have brought in a new head of high performance, which will hopefully result in a change of approach from strength to stamina, and they've also brought back Mick Crawley as attacking coach. He was previously at the club I believe in 2016, the Blake Austin years, when the Raiders finished second on the ladder by scoring points at will and made it to a preliminary final which they only lost by a couple of points in Melbourne, against Melbourne, in persistent drizzle - the infamous "Edrick Lee's fumble" game. I think these are both coaching recruitments to get excited about, and they suggest that Ricky Stuart is capable of learning from the mistakes of his approach in the 2021 season.

2021-12-16T01:52:07+00:00

Nat

Roar Guru


I’m not sure we can compare Sezer v Fogarty’s time in Q Cup. Sezer was one of those teenage prodigies who fell A backwards into the Titans after one good year in Toyota Cup. He didn’t really came on after that. Jamal has only ever been steady but he was the best player in Q Cup before his Titans call up. His maturity and the fact he has had to work hard and long for his opportunity. I reckon he will show more at the Raiders than Titans just by the players around him having more experience.

2021-12-16T01:51:56+00:00

Redcap

Roar Guru


I think much depends on how they're training now and over the next few months. As alluded to above, Sticky needs to improve the overall stamina of the team, especially the forwards. I'll be really interested to see how they use Starling and Hodgson, and CNK and Rapana. Hodgson would make a lot of sense at lock, especially given he's leaving after the season. I wouldn't mind seeing CNK in the centres and Rapana at fullback, or at least using the two creatively - an occasional roving role for Rapana given how effective he is running through the middle.

2021-12-16T01:42:42+00:00

Nat

Roar Guru


He would be perfect for the Dolphins.

2021-12-16T01:31:11+00:00

Rob

Guest


Individually they've got some very good players but I just don't think it's a very good squad when you put it all together. Their spine is ok but I can't imagine they will be creating too many points. Their forward pack was very good in 2019 but the rules have changed yet Ricky has not. Not to mention all the off field problems they've had recently. I think it's going to be another long season for Raiders fans.

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