Back in September, the Socceroos comfortably dealt with China 3-0 and scraped home against Vietnam by a single goal.
The following month, Awer Mabil, Martin Boyle and Mitchell Duke had fans in raptures after slotting the three goals that saw the team past the dangerous Oman, despite a few scares.
Those results shot Australia to the top of the World Cup qualifying standings with an also undefeated Saudi Arabia and set up what loomed as potentially the most crucial fixture in the entire campaign, one that always brings up wonderful and/or heart-breaking memories.
The Samurai Blue had lined up against the Aussies on 25 occasions heading into that fixture last October, a long history that began at the 1956 Olympics and was destined to fuel yet another compelling chapter.
Japan is Australia’s most consistent and contextually challenging rival, always there in major tournaments as near favourite and beginning to build something of an impressive record and advantage in head-to-head fixtures.
(Photo by Koji Watanabe/Getty Images)
With Australia seemingly about to take a well-earned point from the October 12 fixture, a gut-wrenching 86th minute own goal from Aziz Behich derailed what had been a perfect campaign to that point.
It felt like the opportunity of a lifetime to put the Japanese in a world of pain, after a shaky start to their campaign saw them drop points against both the Saudis and Oman, with a third loss potentially eliminating them from top-two contention in the group.
Instead it was unlucky heartbreak for the umpteenth time and things turned from bad to worse soon after.
Single points earned by Graham Arnold’s men against Saudi Arabia and China allowed Japan to catch, pass and obliterate the promising Socceroo start to the third round of qualifying – so much so that Thursday night’s fixture against Vietnam and the February 2 date with Oman have now become must-win matches.
With Japan and the Saudis strong favourites in their fixtures this week, anything other than six points from the next six available will likely see the Green Falcons well out of reach and even an unlikely victory by the Socceroos against Japan on March 24 still potentially not enough to leapfrog their nemesis.
In short, things just got real for the Socceroos and with news that Arnold has been hit by COVID-19, one wonders whether we are about to see yet another disappointing chapter written; this time even more painful thanks to the excellent start to qualification that the team managed in 2021.
I hate to say it, but this reeks of disaster.
A full set of six points will keep things alive and certainly provide hope, yet I am just not sure whether I can dig deep into the emotional well one more time and dangerously invest in the Socceroos’ plight over the remaining four matches. Previous wounds are still healing, tender and constant reminders of the torment felt by fans of the team and the enviable happiness that many Australians experience by not caring one hoot about football.
The easy way out would be to focus on Ash Barty’s run at the Australian Open, or absorb oneself in the A-Leagues if football does appeal. The idea of watching these next two fixtures and hoping like we have never hoped before that the men in gold can find the goals required via some fresh injections of enthusiasm is the most unappealing of propositions, especially considering the potential for catastrophe.
But, like you, I will never give up – hoping for a miracle, a Japanese disaster, a Saudi Arabian calamity, and a pair of Australian wins that reignite their chances of qualification.
That would set up two of the biggest matches ever in Australian football when the Socceroos face their two group rivals in late March.
I’ll be online covering this Thursday’s fixture for The Roar, hopeful and emotional. Yet no matter which way I read the tea leaves or tweak the numbers, something tells me significant pain is just around the corner.
chris
Guest
I agree with you there. Throw on an old style 9 (Duke) and hope for the best.
Newie
Guest
If we can't get 3 points against Vietnam then yes, we can give up for these qualifiers. We don't deserve to go to the World Cup if that's the case. Australia would probably lose all the group matches. You can blame the players, the Australian federation and its coaching methods, the coach or a perfect storm including covid and all of the above, but it just doesn't look like we have the right players, the tactics or the right coach at this time. Even without covid and if we had Pep Guardiola as coach, it still looks terrible. I have been impressed by Arnie at club level but his selections, game tactics and substitutions have been baffling and at times just straight out weird in the last few games.
Robert Pettit
Guest
Judging from the Olympics and WC qualifiers a major concern is that Arnold seems to panic when chasing a game. His first and crudest (and only?) option is to go route 1 that is long, aimless high balls down the centre of the field to tall centre backs newly converted into centre forwards. This approach is relatively easy to defend.
Robert Pettit
Guest
The Matilda's as well as the Socceroos are struggling, bodying ill for football's profile in Australia. If the Matilda's continue to play in the current vein (crude, low skill and uninventive) they will be fortunate to get out of their group at the WWC23. The long term, gradual decline of the Socceroos has many causes including a ludicrously short ALM season of 26 games; absence of jeopardy that is no P/R; lack of infrastructure investment for example in rectangular, club owned grounds and associated training facilities; allowing 5 foreigners per squad instead of a maximum of 4 and playing in the warmer months when the quality (intensity) of football is adversely effected by the heat and light.
Luke Laverty-Meloni
Guest
Yeah we should. We haven't been a good international team since 2006. We haven’t seen the round of 16 since 2016 and we have no hope with our line up as less than half play in the a-league. We train for less than 3 months of the year and that’s catastrophic for our morale and our chemistry. Our coaches can’t get the team through and we just lack explosiveness and skill. Either bring up top a-league players to the national team, or scrap the mens and focus on the womens who are exceptional and progressing so much faster than the men. We won’t see Australia win a fifa World Cup for at least another 50 years because we lack and worldly football players. In reality. The Matilda’s are Australia fifa hope, the men? Not even close
Nathan Cirson
Roar Pro
Unfortunately Stuart it’s all the heart ache that every fan goes through that makes the good times all the better. On a national team level it would always be felt, just with different versions. For some it’s making the latter stages of qualification, for us it’s World Cup qualification, for others it’s getting out of the WC group stage and for others it might just be winning the thing. Look at our qualification for 2006, what made that more special was the heart ache against Uruguay, Iran and versions before that. Our three WC qualifications since have been less dramatic but also they’ve been less emotional because they haven’t had the extended absence of qualification. Call me naive but I think the Socceroos will qualify, however unless things change in player development (even with the World Cup expansion) and with Asian countries improving qualification in the future will be far from guaranteed.
SoccerFan
Guest
I don't want to give up hope on Australia and I still want to see our nation at the world cup but im under the increasing impression that Graham Arnold is not the man for the job. His blasts at Aussie legend Ange annoyed me. Not only this but I find his tactics too reactionary. He fails to make subs when players are not having a good game i.e. where was brad smith against japan. I understand subbing off players having a bad game is bad for their mental health but what about the subs mental health if they cant crack the team when their positional partner is having a stinker. Can think of other examples as well from the olyroos too. Need someone who will coach football similar to angeball.
jbinnie
Guest
sportstar111 -You are quite right in asking Andy who the outstanding young central midfielders at Roar are. I watch every Roar game (when shown) and I am yet to see a midfielder who works harder than the veteran John O.Shea. I have seen some promising lads, sure , but none yet ready to play at the top level of the A-League. Cheers jb.
sportstar111
Roar Rookie
i agree with all of that, and have seen you mention all that before - but who are the talented young centre mids at brisbane roar? would be interested to know
jbinnie
Guest
JF - Without knowing your qualifications as to how you go about assessing a player I don't know how you arrived at JS but that was not who I was "charting". That is a coaching term where you select a player, put a definite skill against his /her performance ,and count the number of times he/she tries to use that skill and is successful or fails. In that way a coach can break a players performance down to 5 skills and then assess his/her performance. I still find it hard to believe that a midfielder in the engine room of a game got through 45 minutes without winning a ball, and even more surprising when that player stays on the field, even when 5 substitutes are allowed. Hope this helps. Cheers jb.
TheSecretScout
Roar Guru
im not going to name names, because i've been wrong many a time and will be wrong again lol I will give a general overview in my opinion, purely based on developemental stats (compared to other a league players as well as players in europe in the same position) Sydney FC = centrebacks (they will need to leave the club to progress though) Mariners = full backs Brisbane Roar = central midfielders Adelaide United = goalkeepers and wingers central strikers and attacking midfielders are positions that are up for debate, each a league club has at least 1 of those that development wise looks excellent - but there isnt a particular a league club that is ahead of others at the moment (melbourne city might soon be the club associated with australian attacking midfielders though)
TheSecretScout
Roar Guru
im not going to confirm or deny that lol - however what i will say, is that multiple a league clubs (more than 3) have lodged enquiries about dukuly in this current window
NoMates
Roar Rookie
You national team is only good as its domestics league. This squad unfortunately stinks of NPL standards.
sportstar111
Roar Rookie
AA - if you had to name the 5 australian players still playing in australia born between 2002 and 2006 that you think are most likely to have successful careers abroad - who would the 5 be?
sportstar111
Roar Rookie
yaya dukuly?
Mark
Guest
The quality of league a player is playing in is not a perfect indicator of the quality of the player in every single instance, but across a group of players it is a pretty good proxy. The decline in the general quality of the national team squad over the past decade and a half is clear for all to see from the quality of the leagues that the players are playing in.
TheSecretScout
Roar Guru
you're being far too cryptic for my liking haha, i would need to know the team and player/s & coach in question to give a calculated opinion. if it wasnt adelaide (which i dont think it was lol) - then i could only really talk about the player in question, if he has been in my database that ive followed through his development, or a current working head coach outside of veart i have a friendship with (that would only be pappas) who funnily enough called me last week about a young unsettled adelaide player - that newcastle are very interested in signing, this deal could actually go through before the end of the window much to my dismay; as the player in question has great developemental metrics and i rate extremely highly.
AGO74
Guest
You do realise that Arnie is not the first manager to play games at home? Playing games at home is not a new concept......
JF
Guest
That particular player doesn't have the initials M.S. by any chance?
jbinnie
Guest
Andy - I watched an A-League game recently and had my attention mainly on one player who gets picked to play 90 minutes most weeks. In the first 45 minutes of the game this midfielder (yes in the heart of the action) never once won possession of the ball for his team, yet his captain ,another midfielder, ran himself almost to a stop. Come half time and my thoughts turned to substitutions and surprise, surprise, the left full back was changed, a lad who was not having a bad game. And so the game progressed with substitution after substitution being made and yet my "target", whose "possession winning" had not improved one iota, stayed on the field till the "bitter" end. (His team lost). On trying to sort out the team performance ,even in the loss, I still could not work out in my mind why this player stayed on the field while all around him ,players, who were busting a gut to cover for his inadequate performance, were being taken off and replaced by youngsters "being given a go". Now don't get me wrong this player may have something to offer the game but it is most certainly not in the engine room of a team and yet the coach appears to rate him way above others. Strange. jb