AFL 2022 Radar: 'Can Sydney win the flag? Maybe'

By Cameron Rose / Expert

You can’t keep a good club down, and the Sydney Swans have certainly been the living embodiment of this in the last two and a half decades.

Since making the grand final in 1996 under Rodney Eade, Sydney have played finals in a remarkable 21 of 26 years. It’s really quite phenomenal.

Paul Roos delivered a premiership in 2005 and John Longmire a flag in 2012.

Roos played under Eade and then took over as coach from him, while Longmire served as an assistant under Roos and they organised a smooth succession plan. In some ways, it has been one long stream of continuity.

The Swans were coming off 15th and 16th-placed finishes in 2019 and 2020 respectively, but surprised many by knocking on the door of top four for most of last season. At the end of the home-and-away rounds, they finished sixth, but on the same amount of wins (15) as the Brisbane Lions and eventual grand finalists Western Bulldogs.

Sydney found a nice balance of old and new, Luke Parker having one of his career-best seasons and Lance Franklin still firing on all cylinders, while they debuted three players in Round 1 and the likes of Justin McInerney and Oliver Florent put together great seasons.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Like all surprise packets heading into the following season, the question is now asked – was this one out of the box and they will revert to a mid-table finish, or are they the next contender and their time is now?

What’s new
Peter Ladhams is the only experienced arrival at Sydney, a dual-pronged player who is a competent ruck to support Tom Hickey as well as a handy forward that can take a mark and kick a goal, drawing a key defender away from Franklin and a Logan McDonald still learning his craft.

The flow-on effect of Ladhams will be Isaac Heeney being released to play more in the midfield.

Buddy, McDonald and Ladhams (or a resting Hickey) will be the marking targets, we know Will Hayward is an effective half-forward and medium marking target too, while Tom Papley is the most dangerous small forward in the competition.

Therefore, Heeney’s talents are less required and he can wreak havoc through the midfield. Every contender has wanted a Dustin Martin and now a Christian Petracca – Heeney is Sydney’s answer, and must be given the chance to prove it.

Star on the rise

The beauty of this Sydney list build is they’ve got plenty.

They had four Rising Star nominees in 2021, including one in each of the first three rounds. McInerney and Errol Gulden finished fourth and fifth in the Rising Star voting, with Braeden Campbell and Chad Warner being the other nominees. Logan McDonald could easily have scored a nomination himself, but will still be eligible for this year’s award.

Gulden is already one of the best kicks in the league, something that was apparent from his first possession against Brisbane in Round 1. He was a key reason why Sydney became such a dangerous kicking team.

McInerney is a smooth mover who has loads of class, and he may take up the role opened up by Jordan Dawson’s departure – someone who can run the wing both ways, providing drive out of defence and precise kicking inside 50.

McDonald looks one right out of the box as a tall forward, despite only playing seven games last year. It won’t surprise if he ends up being the pick of a strong 2020 draft crop. The Swans will be looking to get more games into him.

The No.4 pick in the 2020 draft will look to kick on this season (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Who’s under the pump
Sam Reid can no longer command a spot in Sydney’s best 22. His has been a career interrupted by plenty of injuries, but even when he has been able to play regular football he’s always been an erratic contributor.

Josh Kennedy is still a steady hand guiding the midfield group, but is no longer a first-choice centre square midfielder. Luke Parker is the leader in there, Callum Mills is coming off an outstanding season after moving into the middle, Heeney is going to play more in there, then you have the classier younger types to run the wings.

Kennedy has always been a contested and clearance beast, one who won’t easily be moved to half-back or half-forward, so he’s really going to have to continue on as he always has. He needs 21 games to reach 300.

Best-case scenario
It has to be a top-four spot on the ladder, preliminary final and let the chips fall where they may from there.

Sydney has a younger list than their top-eight rivals, with only Franklin (35), Kennedy (33), Rampe (32) and Hickey (31) on the wrong side of 30. If those four can hold their form, complemented by the group of players in their prime, and if the emerging talent can improve again, they are a contender.

The loss of Dawson is a significant one though, given how much drive he gave the Swans last year. And George Hewett has also gone to Carlton, meaning they no longer have that defensive midfielder that every group needs – the one who does all the unglamorous work so that others can shine.

Can they win the flag? Maybe. And it’s worth going for while they still have Buddy. It’s just hard to see them beating a Melbourne in finals though, given that lack of experience.

Worst-case scenario
Missing the finals is equally likely, coming off such a spike in 2021. Not all progress is linear with a young group, and they caught a few teams on the hop last season – particularly early.

Everyone know what this Sydney team is about now, and they also know they can be roughed up a little bit. They were firm favourites in the elimination final against GWS last year, yet the Giants were just tougher than them, refusing to get put away even when being dominated. It’s not the first time that’s happened in a final against their crosstown rivals.

Bottom six shouldn’t be on the table for the Swans, but a finish in the tenth-12th range is still a possibility.

Best 22
B: Jake Lloyd Dane Rampe Harry Cunningham
HB: Braeden Campbell Tom McCartin Nick Blakey
C: Oliver Florent Luke Parker Justin McInerney
HF: Sam Wicks Lance Franklin Errol Gulden
F: Tom Papley Logan McDonald Will Hayward
Foll: Tom Hickey Isaac Heeney Callum Mills
Int: Peter Ladhams Josh Kennedy James Rowbottom Chad Warner

The Crowd Says:

2022-03-05T04:59:33+00:00

Megeng

Roar Rookie


Truth is, I'm a Swans fan. I actually don't want to get excited by their chances. I'd prefer to be surprised, rather than disappointed. I'm more a little worried that Buddy is 35 and still critical to their success. It's a bad indicator, like bringing Plugger back from the bush and all that.

2022-03-03T09:55:52+00:00

Chris M

Guest


The Mac that I want in my team is MacGyver. He'd always help the Swans snatch victory from the jaws of defeat without even needing to fire a shot.

2022-03-03T05:48:43+00:00

.kraM

Roar Rookie


Sorry, formatting didn’t help get it across. Just want a spine of Irish descendants. It’s Mac time!

2022-03-03T05:47:32+00:00

.kraM

Roar Rookie


Poor quality tr0ll. At least put some effort in next time.

2022-03-03T05:47:03+00:00

.kraM

Roar Rookie


Probably the worst troll I’ve ever seen on The Roar. Whiting or prawns next time, poor quality bait :laughing:

2022-03-03T03:37:50+00:00

Chris M

Guest


I wouldn't pay big bucks to Darcy for half a season each year, usually the first half.

2022-03-03T03:35:02+00:00

Chris M

Guest


You could be right about Cunningham. He's one of the leadership group, he seems to be a fine fella, he's a good AFL player, an experienced player, but not a great player. It's worth keeping great players in the team when they get into their early 30's, but a club that is contending for the premiership should be hoping there are some younger and better players coming through in the squad to replace the lesser lights when they get to that age. That's why it will be a good sign if Reid and Sinclair will be mainly going around in the VFL. There is probably a place for McDonald, McLean and Amartey in the same forward line, if they all found to be good enough at AFL level, either all at once or in rotation. The Swans are short of a tall big-bodied midfielder to replace Kennedy eventually. They need to find one, but their inside mids in recent drafts have all been taken from late first round at the earliest, and mostly later. They're on the smallish side too.

2022-03-03T03:17:01+00:00

Chris M

Guest


The clubs are required to turn over a number of players at the end of each year to make space for new draftees. Whichever Swans have only had their contracts extended until the end of next season are vulnerable to being cut unless there is a spike in form. Ronke, Clarke and O'Riordan would be amongst those, Taylor, Reid and Sinclair as well. I hope Gould comes good, but idf he doesn't show signs of improvement at 2 years of age, he too may not be on the list in 2023. I think that the Swans will give Naismith a one year extension to see if the extra recovery time helps him stay on the park. It's hard to find ruckmen, and they'll probably extend Sinclair for the same reason until they draft another youngster. However, Naismith has been so constantly injured, probably will be again, and will be heading into the 30's. I wouldn't be surprised if his career will be all but over after 2023 season.

2022-03-03T02:58:43+00:00

Chris M

Guest


I too was surprised to hear that commentary about Ollie Florent being a good ball user. I'll have to look a little more closely this season to see what others are seeing that I have not. I haven't necessarily noticed Florent being poor at hitting his targets when he lowers his eyes when there is more space but I have noticed him making poor decisions when sending the ball inside the forward 50. He often tends to bomb it in when it's crowded and not to the advantage of his team mates. If Franklin is the target, Lance is very unlikely to take a pack mark. Florent sometimes seems to miss seeing alternative options which indicates a lack of peripheral vision. That usually means the ball ends up coming back the other way. One season recently he was the most prolific player in the team in sending the ball inside the forward 50, which means you are not getting efficiency of value from your inside 50's. I think Florent has improved in this department season by season, which is a credit to the way he has been working on his game. It's probably more an innate skill in being able to choose the right target, especially under pressure, more so than being able to hit the target, which hopefully the player can improve with practice. However, I'm sure that Florent can improve his decision-making incrementally with greater game experience too, but he'll never be anywhere near as good as McVeigh.

2022-03-03T02:53:03+00:00

Knackaz

Roar Rookie


Chad Warner will play Centre for the next decade. Macca is a tall, lean, running winger, not a centre bounce beast. ‘Golden Boot’ Gulden could develop into a Sam Mitchell type midfielder I feel. I like Hayden McLean but feel he’s a touch slow. He’s not mobile enough for CHF, but Logan McDonald is. McLean will play deep forward. Joel Amartey could become a very good tall, mobile Utility able to play back and forward. As I mentioned in another comment, I’d like to see him trialled on the Full Back line as a big key defender which the Bloods currently lack … Do we go after Darcy Moore as a free agent at the end of the season? His durability is of concern. Imagine him at CHB, if he could remain injury free. It would be just brilliant!

2022-03-03T02:46:52+00:00

Kolya from Perm

Guest


Swans might be bottom four. The good news for Sydney is that the boat anchor strapped to the club is finally over this year with Buddy Franklin's insane, failed contract finally done with. It's a great effort to get a few league matches out of this old bloke most seasons, but what could have been and the costs of this has been a painful lesson.

2022-03-03T02:45:41+00:00

Knackaz

Roar Rookie


Yes, that's you, Don ...

2022-03-03T02:44:07+00:00

Knackaz

Roar Rookie


In 3 years Cunningham will probably be on his last legs at 31. He has been a very good servant of the Club. Gould hasn't played a game yet so very hard to assess, though I liked what I saw of his pre-draft footage and hope he makes it. Chad Warner will have taken over Luke Parker's starting position in the Centre by then and Matt Roberts will become a much better player than Rowbottom, who for mine, will be a depth player only. I hope that Joel Amartey kicks on to be a valuable mobile, tall Utility type. Corey Warner also has a lot of upside as a hard running winger. We definitely need more height in the side ...

2022-03-03T02:29:56+00:00

Knackaz

Roar Rookie


Wicks definitely needs to clean up his goal kicking accuracy, but is an important forward pressure player who Longmire loves. Missed quite a few sitters last season, including in the final (had plenty of mates there) that cost us dearly. Bell tries hard but lacks pace, skill and doesn't get enough of the ball. A depth player only. Ronke, Clarke and O'Riordan should all have been delisted, though I suspect they're just there as depth players. Ronke doesn't kick the ball well enough, Clarke is soft and has no physical presence and O'Riordan just isn't up to it. He cost us dearly with mistakes that led to goals in the finals loss to GWS. Melican also is just a depth player though he tries hard, and poor old 'Mantis' Naismith won't play another game for the Club. They really invested heavily in him as with Alex Johnson (who was tracking to be a 200+ game quality key defender), and in both cases the Club really should have cut their losses earlier. Bad knees are bad for business in the AFL. Gould either makes it this year or he is also cut ...

2022-03-03T02:15:39+00:00

Knackaz

Roar Rookie


I think Amartey should be given a run at Full Back so Ramps can sag off and become another playmaker. Definitely worth a try ...

2022-03-03T02:12:45+00:00

Knackaz

Roar Rookie


Good side, though Warner has to start ahead of Campbell and Stephens, though he will most likely spend most of his on-field time in the middle. I'd have him in at the first bounce along with Parker and Mills ... Paddy McCartin ahead of Reid and McDonald must play. I'd also play Wicks ahead of Rowbottom. Good selection problems to have. I'll bet Geelong wish they had this "problem" with so many good kids vying for positions ...

2022-03-03T01:58:47+00:00

Knackaz

Roar Rookie


Good analysis. Whilst George was a solid servant for the Bloods, he’s not quick nor overly skillful, though he always kicked clutch goals and kicked well enough both feet. Early days, but Matt Roberts will become a more damaging player than George (who granted is a defensive midfielder) and already looks ready to play in the midfield/half forward in the seniors. Errol ‘Golden Boot’ Gulden, Braeden Campbell and Gus Sheldrick will all end up in the midfield. Campbell will play on the wing this year with Gulden in the middle/half forward and Sheldrick half forward first up with a run in the middle to mix the rotations up. Chad Warner has enormous potential, and has Dustin Martin like features in the way he plays. The sky’s the limit with the boy and he will play in the middle all season. I think his brother Corey will become another good winger, similar to Andrew Gaff. Another taller (188cm+), big bodied mid ala Joey Kennedy would be good, but the recruiting of highly skilled players who can run and kick with precision along with Don Pyke’s excellent coaching, and I’m very bullish on the Bloods going forward …

2022-03-03T01:33:12+00:00

Knackaz

Roar Rookie


Good analysis, but you overlooked 'The Leaping Lizard' Nick Blakey moving to half back to great aplomb in the back half of last season until injured. Also Justin McInerney's numbers spiked when he also was moved to half back. Putting Campbell & Gould etc into the mix, Dawson is replaceable. George Hewitt will be missed but he's not the quickest midfielder going around. I think Dawson will regret leaving a team that's coming into a sweet premiership window for one that is quite a few years away from the Bloods ...

2022-03-02T09:20:37+00:00

.kraM

Roar Rookie


Usual nuffies at it again.

2022-03-02T09:20:19+00:00

.kraM

Roar Rookie


Can’t wait to see a spine of McCartin (T) at FB, McCartin (P) at CHB, McInerney at C, McLean at CHF and McDonald at FF.

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