At no time since I’ve been following rugby league has the ability to effectively draw on an extended squad been as important as it is right now.
The team that will win the 2022 premiership will almost certainly be the team that does that the best.
And history says that, while it may not be the Melbourne Storm, they’ll almost certainly be there when the whips are cracking – along with the Panthers and Roosters.
At the risk of being Captain Obvious, the side that wins the 2022 NRL Premiership will be the side that best deals with all eventualities.
And the biggest variant in our game right now – as with our lives in general – is COVID-19.
The National Rugby League in the time of COVID-19 has necessarily been a moving feast of contingencies.
While many are well and truly off his bandwagon, I am still thankful to ARLC Chairman Peter V’landys for keeping the competition going when it so easily could have ground to a halt.
Of course, the NRL’s key metric for success is that the competition keeps going. That games keep being televised.
The pandemic has changed the way the NRL runs the competition massively, but they’ve managed to achieve those KPIs.
For a club, the key metric is success.
At every club success is measured through how well they are developing and growing their squads as a competitive and cohesive unit, whether they are attracting good crowds and sponsorship, and whether they are generating a profit.
Then there are the on-field results to consider. If your team just claimed the wooden spoon, not repeating the humiliation the next season would be the first achievement, with making the finals the most realistic goal.
If your side was in the finals the previous season, making the preliminary round would be the base marker for success, but winning the premiership is really the benchmark.
Before COVID-19 turned our lives upside down, teams had to perform many functions well if they hoped to be successful.
They had to carry out meticulous homework on both their opposition and the officials to create effective plans to manage both those variables well.
They had to position themselves as well as possible in the media, trying to establish a narrative for their team that sees them viewed in the best light possible.
They needed to manage the egos and personalities within their playing group to keep it competitive but also cohesive and focused.
And, above all, they needed to have assembled – and to be continually developing – a squad with skill, experience and single-minded determination that could actually compete for the title. Or at least be building towards that goal.
Once COVID hit, all of those tasks got so much more difficult.
Firstly, you had to control your players and try and stop them breaking the COVID bubble. And that wasn’t easy at all. Players were smuggling women into their hotels, appearing on TikTok dances and attending barbecues.
TikTok star Nathan Cleary (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
This year, V’landys has declared that it will be a ‘soft bubble‘.
“The players will be able to go to places but they must use common sense. They can’t go to pubs or nightclubs that are full of people but they can go to restaurants that are outdoor dining so their lives won’t be as disrupted as they have been the last two years because we are confident that if one player does catch it we will catch it early with the rapid antigen tests and that way they won’t infect any of the other players.”
While the soft bubble should avoid catastrophic scenarios like the fallout from the Dragon’s 2021 Shellharbour BBQ, you can be certain that we will constantly see players withdrawing from games due to positive COVID-19 tests.
That will see pressure placed firmly on each club’s 30-man roster. Already it has been proposed that clubs should be able to draw on players from outside their roster and common sense says that will happen.
However, clubs who have to travel will have to take large squads with them if we are to avoid games being called off and rescheduled – a complexity that will not align well with the broadcast deal or the physical rigours of the game.
It then follows that the club with the best 30-man roster – as well as the best ability to draw on good players from outside it – is most likely going to be the 2022 premier.
When you are looking at the strongest squads in the NRL it is very hard to go past the Melbourne Storm. The Penrith Panthers look pretty good too, as well as the Sydney Roosters.
However, the Storm are the best placed to deal with this new reality. Because it seems they’ve been building towards it well before COVID-19 even existed.
Melbourne have spent most of the last two seasons based on the Sunshine Coast but they have managed to maintain a consistent level of success.
It was a quite fortunate state of affairs for the Storm when they had to relocate to Queensland that their feeder club – the Sunshine Coast Falcons – was based there, giving them established facilities, as well as an extended squad of players to draw from.
But in reality, it is rarely luck where the Storm is concerned.
Craig Bellamy (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
As I’ve said again and again, Craig Bellamy is brilliant at running a club.
There are no factors that can affect the success of his club that he does not consider and try – and usually succeed – to get an advantage with.
Looking at the statistics, one of the things Bellamy does better than anyone is the management of his playing squad.
Quite a number of times in the last couple of years we have heard about the Storms ‘next man up’ philosophy, where there is a real expectation that any of the players in their squad can take their place in the game day 17 and perform their role well.
While the long-term presence of superstars like Billy Slater, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk in his roster may have somewhat camouflaged his approach, Bellamy has deliberately been developing a squad that is so fit, well-drilled and focused that he is constantly producing great players and turning honest toilers from other clubs into standouts in his team.
For years the prevailing logic has been that the fewer players a side uses each season, the more settled and successful the team will be. Conversely, the more players you use, the more likely you’ve had a bad season through injuries, suspensions, and poor form ringing the changes.
The stats do play that out too. As the table below shows, while the average number of players used per team, per season over the last five seasons is 29.6, the side that has ‘won’ the wooden spoon has averaged 31.8 players used.
| Squad size averages | ||||||||
| Year | Total players used | Average | Premier | Top 4 | Top 8 | Bottom 8 | Bottom 4 | Wooden spooner |
| 2017 | 453 | 28.3 | 31 | 27.5 | 27.9 | 28.75 | 31.25 | 31 |
| 2018 | 445 | 27.8 | 28 | 27.75 | 27.25 | 28.4 | 28.75 | 31 |
| 2019 | 461 | 28.8 | 29 | 28.25 | 28.25 | 29.4 | 30.25 | 30 |
| 2020 | 478 | 29.9 | 32 | 28.75 | 29.25 | 30.5 | 30 | 32 |
| 2021 | 508 | 31.75 | 28 | 30 | 30.9 | 32.6 | 34 | 35 |
| Overall average | 469 | 29.3 | 29.6 | 28.45 | 28.7 | 29.9 | 30.85 | 31.8 |
But there is a fair bit more at play than that.
To summarise the above table:
- The amount of players being used per team has been growing over the past five seasons.
- In the past five seasons there has been a 3.5 per cent growth in the amount of players used, with that growth being spread pretty evenly across all teams.
- Feeding that overall growth has been a massive 8.8 per cent cumulative increase of players used over the last two COVID-19 affected seasons.
- However, there has been very little increase in the average size of the eventual premier’s squad size, with that only rising by 1 per cent.
This last point shows that the Roosters (2018, 2019), the Panthers (2021) and especially the Storm (2017, 2020) have already been relying on their whole 30-man squads to achieve success. This shows the successful clubs have been shifting from a reliance on a couple of superstars surrounded by lesser lights to creating squads with genuine depth.
Leading the way in this has been the Storm. While the average squad size over the past five seasons has been 29.3, Melbourne’s average squad size has been 30.6. In that time they’ve been premiers twice, minor premiers three times and runners-up once. Their worst result has been preliminary final exits in 2021 and 2019.
The average total players used in the NRL per season between 2017 and 2019 inclusive was 453. The average for the last five seasons combined is now 469. In 2021 the count was 508 players used.
At the current rate of growth – 4.4 percent for each of the last two seasons – we can expect 530 players to grace the fields of the NRL in 2022. That will be an average of 33 players used per team.
So, where will those players come from? If your club hasn’t figured out some pretty good options by now then they will almost certainly be also-rans.
Because you can be assured that the Panthers, Roosters and especially the Melbourne Storm already have their options already well and truly lined up.
Tim Gore
Expert
He's back! The great Key Board warrior! That was a lot of tweets you deleted from this account and your burner. You must have been tired and emotional.
The Barry
Roar Guru
You should go over to the “why the Panthers can win and why they can’t” article… there’s stuff being written there that’s far more derogatory to the Panthers than anything I’ve written here…
The Barry
Roar Guru
Disagree with me all you like, I enjoy having debates about footy and don’t think I’m always right But you’re the one who started by telling me I didn’t know what I was talking about, I was full of it and calling me a mo.ron… if you don’t want response like that, don’t dish it out.. Especially when all of your comments show that you didn’t understand what I’d originally written and started arguing some other point…
Paul
Guest
Hey Barry. If someone doesn’t like what you write. Or simply doesn’t agree with you. It doesn’t make them a crying girl, a nitpicker & doesn’t mean they have to grow up. The more you write, the greater the number of people you’ll find that won’t agree with you. Build a bridge & just get over it.
The Barry
Roar Guru
You’re a dmb cnt that doesn’t have basic comprehension skills If Gould TOOK Lee WITH him from Penrith means that Gould also came from Penrith Looking something up on line and repeating it verbatim without understanding what it means isn’t doing research. Instead of looking up rugby league websites try looking up a dictionary Even so, it still misses the point. The Dogs were successful and clubs came for their players. Exactly what’s happening to Penrith right now, that you’re crying about has always happened in rugby league I’ve never seen you write any intelligent opinion of your own on these pages. All you do is trawl through looking for comments about Penrith to be offended about. Even when they’re not knocking Penrith and you’ve clearly missed the point you still get fired up. Grow up…
Paul
Guest
Did I say that Gould had coached elsewhere, before coaching at the Bulldogs? Nope.., That’s just your assumption. I said he took Lee with him, when he went to the Bulldogs. Look up Lee’s playing career etc. What does it say? ‘A Penrith junior that Phil Gould took with him , to play at the Bulldogs’! Still didn’t do your research… :laughing:
The Barry
Roar Guru
You’re not even arguing with what I wrote… your responses show you don’t comprehend even the most basic point I was making and amount to “you wrote sumfink about Penriff and I don’t like it…”
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah cool. And Chris Mortimer came from Wagga and Gillespie from Narromine That wasn’t the point. The point was that when you win a premiership, other clubs target your players… what I originally wrote is below. Nowhere did I state that they were local juniors. The point was the Bulldogs won a comp and other clubs went after their players… Guess what, that happens when you’re successful. Don’t you remember the Panthers signing Peter Kelly, Peter Tunks, Chris Mortimer, Paul Dunn, Glen Nissen, Brandon Lee and Greg Barwick from the Dogs in the late 80s, early 90s…?
The Barry
Roar Guru
So what? I didn’t say he was a Bulldogs junior. The point was the Bulldogs won a comp and their players became targets for other clubs. Penrith signed Lee from the Bulldogs after they won a premiership. FACT Phil Gould took with him, to play at the Bulldogs what do you mean “took with him” mor.on? Gould’s job at the Bulldogs was his first coaching job…then he went to the Panthers and took Bulldogs players… not doing too well there mor.on…
The Barry
Roar Guru
There’s no point continuing because you act like a butt hurt fan girl and make up your own things to argue with instead of anything I’ve written “You basically also said Penrith will pay overs to keep fan favourites” No I didn’t. At all. I said as players want their deals upgraded they will need to avoid paying overs. Do you not see the difference? You should be careful calling people mor.ons when your comprehension skills are that poor The Roosters rarely lose anyone from their top 30 that they don’t choose to lose their skill at choosing which players to lose is my whole point and what Penrith need to do well to ensure sustained success. Even when you think you’re argue how with me you’re 00% agreeing with what I wrote. Mor.on By the way , Glenn Nissan is a Penrith junior well done you picked one (and possibly worst) player off my list. Penrith still signed him from the Bulldogs after he won a premiership. Way to disprove my point. It’s Nissen, by the way… mor.on Doesn’t matter how many years I have to go back, the point is when a team has success, their players become targets for other clubs…putting up a list of players signed by other clubs is missing the point by so far that you’re embarrassing yourself…
Paul
Guest
Brandon Lee is another Penrith junior . That Phil Gould took with him, to play at the Bulldogs. Not doing too well here Barry! At least if you’re going to quote players names that leave the Bulldogs. Take a look at where they came from.
Limping Rabbits
Guest
Paul Dunn came from Molong . Played at the Roosters first. Before the Dogs bought him.
Westie
Guest
Penrith’s biggest problem is the lack of money to buy big names. Developing their own top players to go alongside the likes of Cleary . Such as Burton, Katoa . Then having them bought away from the club as well.
Westie
Guest
Need to choose very carefully, which players to keep? The fact is that they always have to let players leave to try & keep those that they’d like to keep. Then those players that they’d like to keep, are bought by the clubs with big backers. Who are willing to pay overs to buy them. Plus, many if the top juniors that they’d like to keep, are also bought by clubs who are willing to pay overs for them. Penrith have no choice. If a couple of billionaires backed Penrith. They’d keep virtually all the best of the players they’d like to keep. Then would quickly become more like the Storm & Roosters.
Paul
Guest
Sure sounded like you were saying that! I don’t agree , that I’m agreeing with you at all. Penrith have taken a whole list of players & made them ready to go at first grade level. Rarely am I going to agree with you. As you’re full of it. You basically also said Penrith will pay overs to keep fan favourites. Given The amount of favourites , first graders Penrith lose every year & other clubs like the Bulldogs paying overs to buy them. Clearly Penrith don’t do that. The Roosters pay overs for most of their NSW Cup team & many of them are experienced players. As paying those players outside of the top 30 , has nothing to do with the rest of the salary cap. Their NSW Cup team has a big turn over , with buying more experienced players & letting others go. As they can afford to do so. Melbourne stockpiles good up & coming players that they buy from elsewhere, in Queensland cup etc. As they can afford to do so. Penrith do neither of those things, as they can’t afford to. They don’t even have most of their NSW Cup players under contract. They are one of the few clubs to just pay such players to play each week. They lose way more good first graders each year than the Storm or Roosters. The Roosters rarely lose anyone from their top 30 that they don’t choose to lose. They can’t help a few players one year retiring. In any case , of course all of the players outside of their top 30 are ready to go , for the Storm & Roosters. So comparing the Storm , Roosters to the Panthers. Is not even comparing apples to apples. Penrith have taken many of their No name , mid tier players & turned then into top first graders . Since three years ago. Just as I said, They have to keep some of those . As they have no other choice. Again, as many of the mid tier players they’ve turned into good first graders , are bought out from underneath them. Ditto for many of their own top juniors coming through. By the way , Glenn Nissan is a Penrith junior , you mor.on. You have to go way into the distant past to find many decent veterans players that Penrith have bought from the Bulldogs. Do you really want to go down that path? As the Bulldogs have mostly been a club who does just what they’re doing now. Buying up players from elsewhere. Not only at a first grade level. I can put up a list as long as your arm , of players bought by the Dogs, from Penrith or elsewhere.
The Barry
Roar Guru
That’s not what I was saying. Turning nobody’s into good players was roughly one of three points I made, but the only one you’ve focused on. It was also the one I said the Panthers have done well so far… so the fact you’d argue the one point I’ve said the Panthers have done well shows you either don’t know what your talking about or you’re having another of your emotional, immature tantrums because someone has mentioned the Panthers Let me be clear, I’m not bagging the Panthers. I’m saying that because of they’re success they’re entering a new era where they’ll have roster issues that they need to get right, that they haven’t had to worry about up until now Penrith has done exceptionally well to identify and develop this crop of mostly juniors into a premiership winning team But with their success they’re entering territory that’s unfamiliar for them, but something the Storm and Roosters have been dealing with for years. All these juniors (and others) playing for peanuts are now rightfully demanding big money From Cleary and Luai to Crichton, JFH, To’o, Kikau, Burton, Capewell, Koroisau, etc. The Panthers need to make sure they’re choosing the right players to keep and not paying overs to retain talent or they’ll quickly get into trouble. They’ve certainly released a lot of players so far, but it’s way too early to say whether they’re pulling the right reins there They also need the next era of locals coming through and ready to play first grade. The Panthers did exceptionally well with the premiership winning group, but again it’s too early to say - particularly for an outsider - whether they have the next generation ready…let alone the one after that, and the one after that, like the Storm and Roosters do Panthers won premierships in 91 and 03 with teams made up largely of young players and lots of local juniors. Both times it was supposed to be the dawn of an era of Panthers dominance and they’d finally unlocked the way to maximise returns from their vast juniors network. Both times were a false dawn and followed by long periods of not just not winning premierships, but struggling for any type of success History says it’s not a lay down misere that the Panthers will continue to be successful. They need to get the things I pointed out right. All three, not just the one. And do it over and over again. If you don’t understand that, you don’t know what you’re talking about So the Dogs signed some Panthers players. Guess what, that happens when you’re successful. Don’t you remember the Panthers signing Peter Kelly, Peter Tunks, Chris Mortimer, Paul Dunn, Glen Nissen, Brandon Lee and Greg Barwick from the Dogs in the late 80s, early 90s…? The Magpies also took Andrew Farrar, Jason Alchin, David Gillespie, Joe Thomas and Paul Langmack. That’s what having a premiership team ripped apart looks like not just losing Burton and Kikau… :laughing: :laughing: Don’t be the dude that over reacts and starts crying every time your club gets mentioned. I wasn’t bagging Penrith, just pointing out that with their success they’re entering a new era where there’s things they need to get right that they haven’t had to worry about to date. The way you took offence to an objective analysis comes across as an emotional little fan girl…
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
A great top 17 is very handy but the Storm had the strongest 17 and they didn't make the GF. A weaker 17 which included Cameron Smith would have almost certainly landed them the crown in my opinion. The Pennies could have had a much stronger 17 but the ship was going nowhere if Cleary went down. As a Manly fan I've looked at our last title in 11 and the bench wasn't that great at all. It was the 13 or maybe 15 who won the comp due to a lack of injuries. The Chooks of 21 had much greater depth it seems than the Eagles of 11 but a fit and strong 13 is more important.
Paul
Guest
Penrith would go a lot better, if they didn’t have to worry about the Bulldogs buying up or trying to buy every decent player that they produce. Ditto for some other clubs. However, before a couple of years ago , very few players at Penrith were wanted anywhere else. So I’d say they’ve done an excellent job with turning supposed no ones into top players. Can go through as many as you like. Capewell , not wanted sometimes bench first grader , to SOO player & premiership winner. Big contract at Brisbane. Sorenson not wanted to playing a role last year. Burton no one to a premiership winning centre & centre of the year last year. Martin no one to SOO player & premiership winner. Naden , not wanted at Newcastle, to return to Penrith. Played a part in two GF appearances. To’o , no one to premiership winner & SOO player. Luai , no one to SOO player & premiership winner. How many would you like me to go through? Basically, most of the Penrith players from nothing, to two GF appearances & one GF win. After finishing tenth a few years ago, So basically, your view on Penrith & how they’ve produced good players & taken others from ordinary to very good players. Is either biased , or you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Westie
Guest
Surely to win the premiership, you’d have to at least depend on a very good top 17? As you’re not winning with just a good top 13. Having said that. I think Penrith won’t overcome the loss of Capewell, Burton, Momirovski, Naden etc, to win it again this season. It may be even worse in the next season without Korisau & Kikua. With Cleary & Luai . Plus the other forwards & backs they have. It may be possible for them to get to the top again in a few years time . As they’re depending on local products coming through to fill the gaps. They don’t have the experience & it can take some time to develop the young players.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Interesting article about the Dogs on the SMH site