Don't be fooled, this is the best Geelong team we've seen in years

By Dem Panopoulos / Expert

Geelong are playing the sort of football that makes the team super dangerous going forward.

For years, the majority of us have mocked the Cats for being too old and too slow.

Despite missing the finals just once since 2006 and tallying seven top-four finishes in the last nine seasons, the Cats have only made the grand final once during that time and more concerningly have conceded more points than they’ve scored in all but one finals series.

There are two sides to this piece of history.

Clearly, it’s incredible how relevant this club has stayed for such a long period and fans are justifiably proud and content with repeated finals appearances, holding similar stature in the game to the NBA’s San Antonio Spurs.

Non-Geelong supporters have been publicly critical of a team seemingly desperate to cling onto false hope, repeatedly topping up with experience to keep their window open for as long as possible.

The reality is that both points of view probably have some validity. The longer the Cats continue to be the league’s oldest team, the criticisms grow louder and louder.

After seven rounds in 2022, the Cats are sitting 4-3 and continue to face their detractors.

2022, though, is giving us a different version of Geelong – one that was desperately required.

If Chris Scott was going to continue persisting with this playing group, he had to buck the recent trend of defined insanity and make tactical adjustments.

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

He has, and he must be commended, because the Cats are playing completely different footy to what they’ve produced in recent history, which has only taken them to one grand final and more often than not an overwhelmingly poor finals exit.

If you continue to criticise Geelong’s age profile, then you must acknowledge the fact that Scott has adjusted his team to keep an eye on the future.

Sam De Koning is 21 years of age and isn’t playing a peripheral role like how some other clubs opt to use their young players. He’s the club’s fullback and main key defender, and the one they trust the most in one-on-ones.

Brandan Parfitt at 24 is one of the team’s main midfield movers and is having a career-best season with more stoppage attendances.

Brad Close and Tyson Stengle, both 23, have taken over as the dominant, impactful small forwards who push up the ground.

Max Holmes (19) has played a wing role and Jack Henry is still 23.

This isn’t a list of young players written for the sake of it – these are the Cats of the future that Chris Scott has consciously placed into significant structural roles to have a meaningful impact on their development.

Yes, there’s a reliance on veterans, but 2022 is chalk and cheese compared to even last season, when fans screaming for youth would only be appeased on occasion in largely peripheral roles.

This is only one part of the significant change undertaken by Scott to re-energise his playing group and play out a meaningful season.

Instead of defence-oriented, patient football, the Cats are now playing an extremely attacking style.

In fact, the defence has suffered significantly in this focus shift, but it’s perhaps the best sign of things to come.

It’s not as simplistic at looking the ladder, although the average of 95.14 points for and 80.29 points against are the highest they’ve been since 2017.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Rather than chip the ball around and try to stretch the opposition, Scott has been teaching the group to speed up their ball movement and go direct.

Even as recently as pre-Round 7, captain Joel Selwood acknowledged that the playing group was still adjusting to the new demands being asked of them.

The numbers are uncharacteristic and refreshing.

After seven rounds, Geelong are averaging 57.7 inside 50s per game, the most since 2011 and up from 50.4 last season.

Matching such highs, the Cats are averaging just 6.37 disposals per inside 50, down from 7.28 in 2021 and again, it is their best ratio since their last flag. This is among the best in the league.

It’s such a significant change to the style that it’s understandable why some veterans are taking time to adjust.

But clearly, it is benefitting the forwards greatly, averaging 16.1 marks inside 50, which would be an AFL record if it were to continue.

When Geelong win the ball, they’re clearly avoiding lateral ball retention where possible, as they feel the current trend of quick movement maximises the firepower the team owns up front with two of the league’s best key forwards.

The Cats are averaging 5890.9 metres gained, ranked fifth in the league. It’s a number that without context is difficult to follow, but since the statistic was first monitored in 2014, Geelong have never covered this much ground with the ball.

Marks are down to 86 per game from 97.6, which matches the new philosophy and is the lowest we’ve seen from the team in modern history, matching up well with the increase in metres gained.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The offensive ball movement is designed to be swift and destructive and it’s done at almost all costs. The Cats were dominant in the first quarter against Fremantle in Round 7, but when the forward pressure of the opposition ramped up, the home team’s ball movement was stifled.

They didn’t look like scoring for a good half hour but when they entered their forward half, the Cats were still efficient.

Defensively, there have been clear issues, but fans shouldn’t be distraught with the defensive season thus far.

The tackling is excellent, ranked fourth in the league so far after being ranked 12th last season. The average of 72 intercepts per game is a clear club record and is largely due to the pressure applied.

A by-product of the new attacking style of play has been the reduction in help defence on offer.

Geelong’s key defenders are being exposed to more one-on-ones than previous seasons – De Koning and Henry have defended 3.8 per game, with the former rated above average and the latter’s numbers suffering from a shocker against Brisbane.

They’re being scored against quite easily – opposition clubs are kicking goals with 25.26 per cent of their inside 50s, up from 21.21 per cent in 2021.

The Cats are conceding easier shots on goal than previously, largely due to the offensive commitment of the team. There are more goals out the back and there is more space inside 50.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

It is slightly misleading, however, with the Cats’ opponents clearly being the most accurate in the league and Champion Data indicating Geelong have been six to seven goals worse off than expected.

The commitment to attacking has resulted in the team welcoming more pressure generally. They’re conceding 50 more disposals than last season and their opponents are ranked seventh and sixth for disposal efficiency and tackles inside 50s respectively, which were previously bottom-four statistics.

Why, then, should Cats fans not be worried by these clearly concerning trends?

Put simply, it seems like everything that is happening at Geelong, good and bad, is by design.

The best teams have always had multiple gears and multiple styles. In recent seasons, the Cats have been a truly excellent home-and-away team, but have been disappointing in finals looking to play in the same manner.

Right now, Geelong are developing an attacking style that is ultimately adding another string to their bow.

The defensive numbers have regressed significantly, but with purpose.

We’ve seen Tom Stewart playing a lot more on the wing than before and Mark Blicavs is playing higher up the ground than we’ve seen for a while, despite Rhys Stanley enjoying a career-best season in the ruck.

Jack Henry has seen his defensive responsibilities skyrocket at the expense of Jake Kolodjashnij, despite their roles being better suited to switching.

And the reason for this?

The Cats know how to defend and have mastered their defensive schemes over a period of years.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

They can always revert back to what they know is largely effective and among the league’s best in terms of defensive efficiency, but there’s no need to while the offensive game plan is developing.

In 2019, Richmond were 7-6. All their losses were by at least 33 points, with four of them by at least seven goals.

During those 13 games, they averaged 77.69 points, suffering from inaccuracy and conceded 84.46 points per game.

They didn’t lose after that point, averaging 99.42 points, and conceding just 60.17.

Damien Hardwick trialled different tactics during the first half of the season before combining them with what Richmond already knew, ultimately keeping his cards close to his chest.

For years, it has felt like the Cats had only one way to pay and that Chris Scott had no other cards to play.

This season is different. We’ve seen the Cats play differently, we’ve heard their captain acknowledge it and we have seen the numbers.

Geelong have figured out a way to improve the way they play without giving much away to the opposition.

If you’re a supporter of the club, you should remain excited, even if the Cats head into their bye on the fringes of the top eight at worst.

For the first time in years, it feels like there’s purpose and long-term control to the Cats.

Write them off at your peril, because the 2022 version of Geelong is the most dangerous the Cats have been for a while.

The Crowd Says:

2022-05-18T05:10:30+00:00

Ben Harper

Guest


Thanks Dem, this is an extremely positive perspective for me to read. Your open-minded consideration is refreshing, and backed up by some very insightful statistics. Keep up the great expertise.

2022-05-09T04:29:44+00:00

Clear as mud

Guest


they had belief after knocking Port off in a close one, down at their "fortress". oh, and winning 2 from 3 previous years. i do think Geelong have a bit of a mental glitch. 2019 PF, we turned it around in 5 minutes. same again in 2020 GF. their Rd 23 loss to Melb that shook up the top 4 last year. it can happen to anyone e.g. us in the 2018 PF, the brainfades against WCE last year that derailed our season. but Geelong's seem more prevalent (albeit you have to be there to get knocked out)?

2022-05-09T04:23:20+00:00

Don Freo

Roar Rookie


That goes without saying (even though you said it). Richmond don't have a Griff Logue to sort him out.

2022-05-09T04:09:55+00:00

Clear as mud

Guest


He will come back just for Richmond and kick another 5 :(

2022-05-09T04:08:28+00:00

Clear as mud

Guest


presumably Geelong will be drafting or trading for a key forward to support Cameron. if you can see it coming...

2022-05-09T04:03:45+00:00

Clear as mud

Guest


yes agree with this. Richmond didn't play tempo footy a la Roos, but it was certainly a grind and grind and then go just when the other team starts to flag - all 3 finals wins in 2017 a good example of this. in fact our firey stuff looks better this year, facilitated by some actual midfield presence and dlivery - Lynch the maligned showing how destructive he is, especally when not chasing rubbish kics with 3 guys on his back, and Jack now a clear 2nd wheel. No Chol or CCM to also get in his way. Chucking balta in there early freed them up a bit. Imagine if they had Higgins or Butler, or Castagna in any sort of form. we may not win the close games or beat the best teams this year, but we are playing some exhilarating footy lately, even compared to premiership years. (which presumably is a great platform for the kids to endure, unlike Jack and co who had the dire Wallace loss years and then early directionless Dimma?)

2022-05-09T03:48:45+00:00

Andrew

Guest


Do you even watch football??!! Bizarre comment considering he’s kicked 23 over 8 rounds and that’s with Jeremy Cameron in the side!

2022-05-08T07:18:09+00:00

Bruce Derrick

Guest


The obvious question is why did Scott stick to what they were doing for so long (in years past). I have argued Scott was past his “use by date” 5 years ago and for my money the last 5 years have been 5 years of wasted opportunity. The talent was there but the coaching was appalling!

2022-05-07T00:53:04+00:00

Jt

Guest


No chance until Tom Hawkins goes… great kick but mostly unable to get near it….Geelong might go into forward fifty a lot but Tom gets beaten by his opponent mostly.

2022-05-06T23:25:25+00:00

paul williamson

Guest


Happy for cats to try something different. Don't think realistically this is our year. Have got immense joy seeing them evolve for the future.

2022-05-06T12:12:00+00:00

Peter the Scribe

Roar Guru


No

2022-05-06T10:26:23+00:00

M. Rockatansky

Guest


I suspect the Dockers still have improvement in them given their forward line is still hit and miss, but with Amiss and Sturt to add to Tabener, this might be remedied soon, and I'd say then that beating the Cats at their home ground as they did will look even more significant.

2022-05-06T10:15:18+00:00

M. Rockatansky

Guest


Will you change your mind if Freo beat Melbourne on their home deck in a few weeks? Melbourne have been winning, but not particularly convincingly.

2022-05-06T10:05:21+00:00

PeteB

Roar Rookie


It’s a shame you’ve had Scott as coach over the last decade. Probably cost you 1 or 2 cups imo.

2022-05-06T09:37:37+00:00

Mr Right

Roar Rookie


Bobby, as I think you already know. Their are down to earth diehards & delusional diehards!

2022-05-06T09:33:13+00:00

Mr Right

Roar Rookie


Tibor, you are looking at their end results in hindsight. At the start of just about every season, experts predicted they were a chance. Unlike North Melb or Hawthorn this year. Just because a team doesn't finish with a victory doesn't always mean they never had a realistic chance of victory. It's easy to look at end results & say that was always it was going to pan out. But ask yourself, in Feb 21 did you predict that Richmond were not in the premiership window & were never a chance of making finals? Of course not, they were paying $4.00 to win the flag.

2022-05-06T09:25:52+00:00

Don Freo

Roar Rookie


Richmond?

2022-05-06T09:16:14+00:00

ChrisH

Roar Rookie


Since the Cats won the flag, only 6 teams have won a flag, so you could argue that the other 11 teams' coaches have also cost their lists premierships. They only give out one a year. I'd rather be a Cats fan (tho am Swans, so pretty happy), than plenty of other teams who've also tried and failed in the same period. Scott could have played a different brand, but can we be sure that would have even got them into the finals?

2022-05-06T08:09:50+00:00

Popavalium Andropoff

Guest


If that's how good the Cats are, then imagine how good the Dockers are.

2022-05-06T08:00:28+00:00

Andrew

Guest


Agree there’s plenty to be excited about as a cats supporter, but winning the cup this year ain’t one of them. Better / new game plan and a good group of young players coming through gives some hope of a competitive future, but not this year. I see this year as an opportunity for growth and development of the plan and and the group while Melbournes in their prime with view to pushing again in the near future. It could be worse - I could be a West Coast or North Melbourne supporter . . . *shudders

More Comments on The Roar

Read more at The Roar