Both coaches needed to roll dice with selection gambles but Foxx shouldn't have got chop for Rooster

Brad Fittler has bucked convention at every turn when he’s selected his NSW teams so it shouldn’t have been a surprise he’s done so again for the 2022 State of Origin series opener.

While for the most part remaining loyal to the players who have done the job for him, Fittler has stuck with his trademark left-field thinking with a few selections, most notably bringing Roosters veteran Daniel Tupou onto the wing and going with Raiders five-eighth Jack Wighton at centre.

Eels forward Ryan Matterson, Broncos centre Kotoni Staggs, bench utility Stephen Crichton and Sharks halfback Nicho Hynes as 18th man are the four potential debutants while Knights prop Jacob Saifiti and Roosters prodigy Joseph Suaalii are also in the 22-man squad for game one at Homebush on June 8.

Loyalty is a two-way street in Origin and the modest club form shown by Josh Addo-Carr, Jake Trbojevic and Angus Crichton has led to their surprise omissions.

Despite being the state that has lost three of the past four series, Queensland have been relatively conservative at the selection table. 

New coach Billy Slater has brought in a few rookies in Jeremiah Nanai, Patrick Carrigan, Reuben Cotter and Selwyn Cobbo but has largely stood by the key players from last year’s 2-1 series loss, a contest which was over by half-time in game two.

Dumping star forward David Fifita is a surprise but despite all the hype, he has struggled to perform at Origin level in his five appearances, has not been dominating at club level for the Titans and is only one game back from a knee injury.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

It’s brave for Slater to not take the easy option and include Fifita but he was renowned as a fearless player during his playing career at the Storm, Maroons and Kangaroos so he should bring that same approach to his coaching stint.

Fifita has the potential to be a game-changer for the Maroons, but he has yet to make his mark in the Origin arena.

The fact that he went from a starter to the bench last year was indicative of a player who has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Gorden Tallis as Queensland’s Raging Bull at representative level but is yet to prove it.

Dane Carlaw, Dave Taylor, Coen Hess, Joe Ofahengaue … many young Queensland forwards have been hyped up over the years to take up the Tallis mantle but it’s one thing to have the size and strength, it’s another altogether to have the physical presence.

David Fifita. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

For NSW, the decision to change a winning side is often frowned upon but the longer you keep a squad together, the greater the likelihood of the team getting stale.

Refreshing and regenerating your line-up, even if it has won three of the past four series, is the key to Origin success.

And Fittler likes to throw the traditional way of thinking out the window, like in 2019 when he made 10 changes for game two in Perth after losing the series opener and the Blues responded with a crushing 38-6 triumph.

While the two new centres – Wighton and Staggs – are forced selections due to Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic being out injured, the other changes to the NSW line-up are on the periphery.

He’s stuck with his spine of captain James Tedesco at fullback, Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary in the halves and Damien Cook, although the only one of those four spots that was ever under the slightest of doubt was whether they needed a change at hooker with Api Koroisau in top form at the Panthers.

The Penrith influence will be spread across the field with Brian To’o running off his club halves’ lead-up work out wide and lock Isaah Yeo providing grunt in the middle as well as a link between the pack and the speedsters in the backs. Liam Martin and Crichton filling in wherever needed as the bench utility also gives Fittler the option of putting another couple of Panthers on the park whenever a gap opens.

There was talk that Martin would fail to get a start in the game-day squad, which would have been a surprise given he was blooded by the Blues last year and he has barely put a foot wrong with the competition-leading premiers during their scintillating 11-1 start to this season. Thankfully he is on the interchange and probably should be starting in the second row ahead of Tariq Sims.

Still, for all the tinkering Fittler has done, it’s a major surprise not to see Addo-Carr on a flank. 

He had a shocker for the Dogs on Sunday in the loss to the Dragons with a couple of terrible reads in defence but it appears he’s trying too hard in a struggling side.

After moving from the victory machine that is the Melbourne Storm to the bumbling Bulldogs, it has easily been the toughest season of his career. 

But with 10 tries in 12 Origins, the crown of the fastest player in the game and a winger who never shirks his duties in doing the hard yards, Addo-Carr should have been retained. 

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Tupou is a good player but Queensland are obviously happier seeing a Rooster instead of the Foxx on the other side of the field.

Apart from Fifita’s omission, Slater’s biggest gamble in his first foray into coaching at the top level is potentially showing too much faith in the likes of players who were on the receiving end of last year’s hidings in Townsville and Brisbane.

There are 10 survivors from those 50-6 and 26-0 hidings, and that was on home soil.

Knights fullback Kalyn Ponga will have the microscope on him in the lead-up to game day after getting the nod ahead of Warriors rising star Reece Walsh.

Ponga, who missed the first two matches last year with injury but was part of the 20-18 game-three consolation win, has been patchy at best for Newcastle this season.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

For all his faults, Ponga has a 2-2 record at Origin level since his debut in 2018 which is a decent record during a time when NSW have dominated. 

But it also tells you that he’s still yet to play a full series – injury curtailed his rookie campaign and rubbed him out of the third match of the following year, all of the 2020 end-of-year series and the first two games last year.

Both coaches, in their own way, have rolled the dice for game one. You have to. There’s no point holding back when whichever team wins the first match has rarely won the next two games to claim the series – that’s only happened seven times, in 1982, 1987, 1994, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2013 and 2019.

NSW have home-ground advantage at Accor Stadium after the COVID-19 pandemic forced them to give up that right for all three matches last year.

The Blues are odds-on with the bookies to not only win game one but the series and while Queensland always claim they don’t care about pre-match favouritism, they wouldn’t have it any other way than being the underdogs.

“I don’t care about that,” Slater said on Monday morning. “I never once stepped onto an Origin field feeling like the other team was better than us and we won’t be starting now.”

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