Super Rugby tipping panel – quarter-finals: When the rubber hits the road

Mmm, finals time. It’s happening everywhere. The European cups have been decided, Japan has crowned their inaugural League One champions – even the artist formerly known as the Pro14 is getting in on the action this weekend.

Now it’s our turn.

In the end, we got exactly the top eight we first felt we were getting weeks ago, and even in pretty much the same order they are now – it just took a whole lot of final-round drama to get here.

Six teams entered the weekend with a real possibility of finishing in a different position, but despite everything that did happen, only the Brumbies and Chiefs moved.

From this weekend, it gets serious. The going is about to get tough. We’re at the pointy end. The end of the day is here. The point is about to be got to. Yes indeed, the rubber is about to hit the road. All is about to be said. And done. Shit is about to get real, if I may be frank.

More than a few teams have had what can most generously be described as ‘moments’ in recent weeks, and suddenly they now have only this week to get it right. It’s a fascinating and properly gripping concept when you put a hard and fast deadline like that on it.

Get it right, and they can spend Sunday planning another training week. Bugger it up, and it’s exit interviews and Mad Monday.

It’s finals time and the anticipation is so thick you can smell it. Or that could be the Hairy Man…

Last week: Geoff 4, Harry and Digger 3, Brett and The Crowd 2

Overall: Geoff and The Crowd 64, Digger 63. Harry 61, Brett 60

Geoff

Tips: Crusaders, Chiefs, Blues, Brumbies

So, after 15 rounds of fun, carefree stroke-play, we enter the serious business of the matchplay finale. Brett four-down, Harry three-down, with seven to play. A few easy birdie holes to come. They’re in trouble.

Digger one-down and The Crowd all-square, is where the action is. Who will keep the driver in the bag and aim for the fat part of the green? Who will chase the sucker pins?

The Crusaders will outdrive the Reds by 40 metres. The Chiefs’ short game can blow a bit hot and cold, but if the Waratahs can hole out from the bunker, they’re a fluker’s chance.

(Photo by Pete Dovgan/Speed Media/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Last Sunday, after the Highlanders’ loss to the Rebels, I looked into Tony Brown’s eyes and I saw what he saw. A dickey putter, holey golf shoes and a hickory-shaft 3-wood. No show against the club pro.

Saturday night is Ryder Cup, dog-fight time. Nic ‘Poulter’ White stirring up the home crowd, Ardie ‘DJ’ Savea shouting ‘in da hole’. I’m all out of golf analogies. Dan McKellar takes it personally when his forward pack gets touched up. They’ll be way tougher this week. And they’ll win.

Sure thing: the Rebels, mortified at the realisation that it’s their fault the Force are missing out on finals action, are on the cusp of penning a letter of apology to ‘Twiggy’ and the good folk of Western Australia.

Digger

Tips: Crusaders, Chiefs, Blues, Hurricanes

As Flight of the Conchords proclaimed, “it’s business time”, and it’s a funny old business with six of the eight finalists really stumbling into the knockout stage.

First up, Crusaders and Reds in a rinse and repeat from last weekend, and there is next to nothing to suggest Queensland can make this happen really. In last week’s game the commentary made mention that perhaps the Reds can take more from this game than the Crusaders heading into this week but, nah, I can’t see it. Crusaders first through to the semis.

Chiefs and Waratahs first up on Saturday in what you would expect to be hotly contested, but I suspect the Kiwis playing at home will have too much in the end. But they are a dangerous side, and with no expectation and nothing to lose, the hosts best be careful. Chiefs second team through.

Many expect the Highlanders to front at Eden Park against the high-flying Blues and run them close. Certainly, they are not a side to be underestimated, but I am struggling to see them really coming close.

The last two weeks have been horrendous for the Clan and even if they can get some of their big troops back, they haven’t played much for a long time. It’s a big ask to bring that level of intensity against a Blues side running on all cylinders. Blues to be number three.

Naturally, the best for last. Both with exciting run-ins to the quarters by both managing to get beaten by two teams who didn’t qualify, Brumbies and Hurricanes. Have the Brumbies peaked this season and on the slide? Can the Hurricanes finally put a cohesive performance together?

Playing in Canberra generally tends to be a graveyard for Hurricane sides, and the selection strategy of ‘giving someone else a go this week’ this season worries me that we (yes, we) are headed into finals with little cohesion and understanding. I suspect the Brumbies’ best, particularly up front, is better than ours. Still, Hurricanes to be number four ‘cos, you know.

Sure thing: bound to be more comments around refs ruining matches with cards while forgetting the players, might, maybe, just a little, have a bit to do with it and maybe, just maybe, should stop doing dumb things.

Du’Plessis Kirifi of the Hurricanes Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

Harry

Tips: Crusaders, Chiefs, Highlanders, Hurricanes

I have to pick an upset or two or I’ll just lose mildly, respectfully. Mild and respectful are two words not often associated with me.

Thus, I must pick two upsets where there are none to pick.

The Crusaders will not be beaten by the Reds. There is too much might in the forward pack for the fading Queenslanders to overcome. In fact, I would think this will be the most lopsided match in the round.

The Waratahs are probably very happy. Happy with their coach. Happy with their season. Just happy. So, they will lose to the Chiefs who are bloody minded.

Therefore, my two preposterous upsets have to come from the last two playoff matches. Based on nil.

The Blues to stumble under the pressure of going wire to wire? The problem of the Highlanders having two really good halfbacks? The silly structure of the comp that allows the Clan into the playoffs? Maybe.

But I will take the eighth team over first.

The more realistic upset would be the difficult Hurricanes over the now-worrisome Brumbies. I’ll take it.

The Stormers won the SA plate and the chance to host playoffs until the final (if seedings hold, vs Leinster). Perhaps everyone is better off?

Sure thing: there will be no upsets this week.

Brett

Tips: Crusaders, Waratahs, Blues, Brumbies

This week again, as is the case every week, I started the panel by putting my picks in the table before I start looking at the guys’ emails, trying as best I can to not be influenced by their picks. And sure, finding myself in this disappointingly familiar position, I figured I probably had to go against the grain somewhere.

Then I opened their emails! Fair to say I really didn’t expect the number of variations we’ve got.

So anyway, as much as I’d love to see Queensland turn around their recent run of form, in Christchurch of all places, where the Reds haven’t won since 1935, and where the Crusaders haven’t lost since the week after that, I’m not so sure they got it in them. But neither does anyone else, I suppose.

And the Blues won’t trip up on the Highlanders, not now and not after 13 straight wins. Although if there was a time for the Blues to resume letting me down…

And if there was a time for the Brumbies to stop letting me down, could it kindly be this week, please? It was a strange performance last week, where they kind of stayed in control of the game during the second half last week against Moana Pasifika right up until the point where… they just suddenly weren’t.

But the Hurricanes are a side who still don’t know how they want to play, and the Brumbies will recall how well they controlled the second half last time around in Canberra. If they wouldn’t mind.

Which just leaves me with Chiefs and Waratahs. The Chiefs have fallen into method that works for them, and backed by an 84 per cent kicker who’s nailed 31 from 34 in his last six games, they sure know how to keep a scoreboard ticking. 38 of their 62 tries this season have come in their last seven games.

And all that’s great, but can it stop a fairy tale? The Waratahs have done in 15 weeks what Darren Coleman thought might take a few years, playing a style of rugby that people are loving again. Even Queenslanders are starting to dislike them, and that surely is the ultimate compliment.

I’m happy to fly the sky blue flag for another week. And may this week’s tips live happily ever after.

Sure thing: there will be an upset somewhere this week. I just hope it’s the one I’ve picked.

Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon.

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