Mean boys and the replacement POPE: The NRL’s salt of the earth

Before POPE hangs up its cassocks to enjoy Origin and, most importantly, the conclusion of the premiership season, there are a couple of other paths I’d like to take you down.

I’ve done a team of the 2022 season so far and a team of players having sneaky good seasons. Today is about the average and below average players of the NRL – the salt of the earth.

Calling somebody an average player has negative connotations in the Australian lexicon. That’s not my intention at all. Making it through a crowded field and into an NRL squad and then becoming an average player in an elite sporting competition is a significant achievement.

The players POPE has identified as below average, or replacements, are not reserve graders, they’re the regular first graders most in danger of being replaced by the next generation and having to haul-out to Hull KR. I suspect they’re all fervent supporters of expansion.

The mean boys

You’re about to see some really good players labelled as average, and a player who’s just been selected in an Origin squad labelled as below average.

Remember, this is data at a fixed point in time (the end of Round 12), and it will change. Average players will move in both directions in the coming months. Below average players will solidify an NRL spot or start looking for real estate in Hull.

I’m not going to narrate the selections. Instead, I’ll give you a little insight into POPE.

The first column is the mean POPE in the relevant position. The second column is the player in relation to it. 100 is dead-average and then it goes either way. All the ‘mean boys’ finished within a percentile of the mean. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves was the only player to score 100 exactly. He should have an award named after him.

The third column is a benchmark effectiveness rating. One of the key building blocks of POPE is in its name – the proportion of engagements that are positive. The benchmark is set by the best players.

The fourth column is key – you can be a below average player overperforming or an above average player underperforming.

Take Kotoni Staggs, for example. His raw numbers indicate a slightly above average player executing below his capabilities. Then there’s Will Penisini, a slightly below average player overperforming slightly.

The replacement POPE

It’s the same method here just with a different class of player. You’ll note that Lindsay Collins is underperforming. I’m not sure if Origin is the arena for him to find form.

You’ll also note that Andrew McCullough, Corey Waddell and Elliott Whitehead are overperforming from a low base. That’s a worry for all three.

Jake Trbojevic’s numbers have gone off a cliff mainly because he hardly ever runs the ball anymore. Hint to Jake: Isaah Yeo is so effective because you’re never sure if he’s going to run or not. Trbojevic is underperforming slightly but not by enough to indicate he’s likely to rejoin the elite.