Whenever NSW lose an Origin there’s so much commentary on which players need to be dropped or brought in, now the shoe’s now on the other foot with Queensland needing to make changes.
After such an emphatic 44-12 win on Sunday night in Perth, I can’t see how they’re going to be able to go into game three with the same squad.
The Blues only lost by six in game one but there was so much scrutiny about their selections so the Maroons will need to change things up because NSW now have a blueprint on how they can finish the job in game three on July 13.
I know they like to stick with loyalty but it’ll be interesting to see if they do after such a convincing win by the Blues. I would imagine they’d have to make some changes.
NSW look like they’re following their path of 2019 when they lost the first game, made a bunch of changes for a game in Perth that worked and then carried that momentum into the decider.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
That game was in Sydney and this time the decider is in Brisbane so having the game back at Suncorp Stadium will be massive for the Maroons but they can’t just rely on the home ground factor to turn things around after what we saw in Perth.
Brad Fittler was criticised a lot for making seven changes to his team for game two but he trusts his brains trust of Greg Alexander, Paul McGregor and Danny Buderus and their moves were totally justified in the end.
I wrote after game one that I’d like to see Api Koroisau brought into the team and that worked wonders. For him to play the first 34 minutes straight in his first starting game at Origin level was an amazing effort.
He provided plenty of spark for the Blues to get on the front foot and then when Damien Cook came on, he capitalised off the back of that.
Jake Trbojevic’s return to the side was also a masterstroke. He’s not a superstar athlete that’s going to change a game with his athleticism by breaking the line and running 40 metres to beat the fullback.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
But what he brings to the team as far as leadership, passion and work ethic defensively and in attack is priceless. He doesn’t often rank highly in the metres gained but he takes the tough carries, finds his front, can ball-play when needed and is so valued as a teammate.
One of the other main differences between the two games was Nathan Cleary’s performance. He was great from start to finish and with his kicking game, I noticed NSW had a few more blockers in place to protect him from Queensland’s defensive pressure from marker.
NSW were more dominant with their play-the-balls which helped create more space for him to work his magic with the boot.
Freddy came out after Origin I to complain about how the Maroons were slowing the ruck and I’ve seen some footage since then that shows how much Queensland were taking advantage of holding NSW down in tackles.
It was quite ridiculous. If it was an NRL game there would have been penalties all over the place.
Origin is great when there’s not as many penalties blown but Queensland were pushing the envelope.
I thought the Maroons actually got a few leg-up penalties working their way out of yardage in game two and I don’t think they can complain too much about Felise Kaufusi getting sin-binned just before half-time.
It was warranted. Clearly it was their tactic again to slow the play-the-ball down and Kaufusi basically had Junior Paulo’s head between his knees for a long time as he was trying to get up.
Freddy highlighted the tactic after game one and whether that has had an influence on the referees, only they would know.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Even though Latrell Mitchell and Jack Wighton are probably going to be available for game three, I wouldn’t be making any changes if I was picking the NSW team. Matt Burton played great in his first Origin game at left centre and his kicking game was a point of difference.
Wighton was one of our best in game one and I’m a big fan of what he brings but it’s going to be tough to change that team.
There’s a little bit of water to go under the bridge with the next NRL round before they have to pick the team on Sunday night so we will see what happens.
If Payne Haas’ ankle injury is serious, I’d be looking at giving Jacob Saifiti a go as one of the props. He’s been magnificent for Newcastle the past 18 months and he was in the extended squad for the first match so I reckon he’d be ready to step up.
The Blues’ record in series deciders in Brisbane is not great but they’ll have plenty of footage to study when they go into camp for game three about how they can repeat the dose from Perth to clinch the series.
Heyou
Roar Rookie
Yep that’s how it generally goes. It’s the nature of the beasties.
PeterCtheThird
Guest
So is it OK for the ref to be overwhelmed by baying NSW coach, commentators and media, including Roarers? NSW win: we wuz wunderfull! Ref not bad but if he did a proper job we wuda wun by more! Bad ref! NSW lose: crooked ref! We wuz robbed! NSW coach rings ref appointed for next game…
EastOfDivide
Guest
You’d have to be kidding. Holmes carefully lined up where Topou was running from , to make sure he got in the way . He looked at Topou a couple of times & adjusted where he was standing, to make sure he was in the way. Nothing controversial about that penalty at all. Take another look at it . As if it was Topou getting in the way of a Cobbo for example. Then you’ll see it more clearly. :thumbup:
Justin
Guest
You can simply tell on TV , by how quickly the defence is on top of the attacking side & if the attack has any room to move at all. Plus by penalties given for being offside. By the way, Queensland got out of a bind a few times in the first half . With those offside penalties. If NSW was going to complain after game 2? They’d say ‘ How is a metre plus forward pass for a try from Ponga , judged as being fine .When the referee used a slide rule to disallow a Crichton try from a run around ‘? So Queensland we’re lucky to score 12 points.
theHunter
Guest
These are just split second differences. Besides Maroons made way more tackles in Game 2 and that would have cut their average by so much. According to the stats on NRL.com Maroons were 351 in total tackles compared to 264 by the Blues in Game 2. Game 1 had only Maroons with 1-less tackle the whole game and their ruck speed difference was just 0.2 seconds. Hardly anything. In stating all of that, this 'average ruck speed' is just as it is, just a number. Coz every ruck after a tackle has to be seen on its own merit. We have players milking a penalty and are slow to play-the-ball, we have some runners who intentionally like to slow their own play-the-ball, we have the ref sometimes doesn't mind a player laying on for a bit longer especially on kick returns coz no one is at the marker as soon as we like, etc... I think, however, is that what we don't like are when the players are intentionally trying to slow the ruck when the runner is obviously trying to get up quickly. And this happens mostly when the game is either in an intense situation, tight-score situation or in a mix of both. This is when we start to notice the 'ruck speed' and complain about it. Say, Blues have a typical 5 tackle set with ruck speeds of 4secs for 3 tackles, 3.5sec for the 4th before kicking after a 3 second ruck. But in the following set, Maroons make a first ruck speed of 3.5sec, than a 3sec after 2nd tackle which they make a line break afterwards and the tackle is made in Blues territory on the 30m. However, he is slowed down and the ruck speed is 4.5secs after the 3rd tackle, than followed by a 4sec to further slow them down after the 4th and no try is scored after kicking after 5th tackle from a ruck speed of 3.5secs. Given this scenario, the ruck speed average is exactly the same at 3.7 seconds. Does this number give any justice to both teams? Not even close. The ruck speed sways throughout the game. Even within a set of six so trying to use this as a form of measure of how the game goes is being ignorant. Fittler, I believe, just spoke on the crucial ones that affected his team when they were actually needed to be quicker and I'm sure Billy will complain on the ones that affects his team. Not complain on the average that is being shown here.
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
if they lose G3 will Freddie do an hour long Rassie crying rant, or will he save that for if they lode G1 next year?
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
think the ref needs to do what they do in rugby - tell the captain there are too many infringements and the next one means someone in the bin before giving someone their marching orders instead of just going - "you - you're off for 10". Hopefully that keeps teams at full strength and less ruck infringements close to the line
Fraser
Roar Rookie
They are shown on NRL.com stats. Have a look at the negative play section. ‘Ruck Infringements’ and ‘Inside 10 metres’ are the six-agains. QLD conceded 5 to NSW 1. Incidentally, QLD conceded 3 six-agains and 2 penalties between the 35:43 and 38:38 minute period.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
He's fit, he knows all the plays, afterall, they are mostly out of the 80s, and Qld love nothing more than a shock selection.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Wasn't about opinions. Just about your crystal ball pregame in need of repair, and now you are wanting it to pick the game 3 team.
Nico
Roar Rookie
Rob, it's measured as the time from when the referee calls for the tacklers to release to when the ball is played through the legs. ABC did a really good article on it a couple of years ago https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12328494
Peter S Jefferis
Guest
What are the 6 again counts for both matches. I can't believe NRL sites who say they have stats don't show this. Surely they are as (if not more) important than penalties as they are used in place of?
Dumbo
Roar Rookie
Thanks
Rob
Guest
Souvalis, as a Cowboy’s fan travel has always been factor in performance. Did NSW make a smart decision going over to Perth earlier than QLD. The Panthers traveled but how taxing was the game against the Warriors? I think Broncos, Cowboys players possibly had a hard physical hit out coming into a 7 day Origin clash on the opposite side of the country. Don’t under estimate the mentality of theses 10 min had on players and the scoreboard getting away had on players knowing that a loss wasn’t the end of the series either. Just saying physically and physiologically players weren’t the same place in game 2.
Rob
Guest
Nico, any idea on how they measure play the ball speed. For mine it’s the most ridiculously obscure stat ever devised. I could think of multiple reason a tackle is slower or faster than each other and I suspect rules allow that happening. I could be told 3.2, 3.8 2.6, 4 and basically roll my eyes. What does average speed really mean over 80 min especially when it’s of zero consequence to the scoreboard? More points in Perth with a much slower PB speed.
Rob
Guest
How do you see on side watching the TV? The TV rarely show the defensive line concentrating on the ruck. At times I’m flying down the field looking at the dummy half’s head? How do you call off side when the ref is standing behind every player also? I gave up years ago. You only get a good look on an elevation sideline at the game.
Fraser
Roar Rookie
Yes I think the referees missed some crucial calls in Game 1: 1) Luai drops the ball cold and no knock-on is called – play on NSW. 2) In the 26th minute, QLD put up a bomb which appears to be knocked forward by NSW and then picked up by Liam Martin in an offside position. Play on NSW. 3) Munster makes a clean line break. Staggs makes the cover tackle, then a second effort and interferes with the play the ball. Clear sin-bin, especially in light of the Kaufusi sin bin in Game 2. Game 2 the sin bin isn't really controversial. The escort and the 6 agains beforehand seemed like they were trying to get NSW back into the game. Cleary avoiding suspension again isn't really a refereeing factor, but he's untouchable at the judiciary.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Exactly ! And he would have been correct again .
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
You're dead set right , Holmes changed lines and should have been penalised. My issues are 1 the Ref and touchie thought it was OK . The bunker intervened . Random bunker bs. It doesn't intervene when Murray is whacked in the head by Taulagi . It's totally random and completely inappropriate, 2 What has an escort penalty got to do with ' repeated ruck infringements' . Would a penalty for back chat or a strip or high tackle or crusher etc be included ? Klein specifically mentioned it. You guys were way better, deserved the win but that segment of reffing was laughable.
Rob
Guest
Fair enough. It is NswRL we’re talking about.