Leading into the game against the Canberra Raiders on Sunday afternoon, Melbourne Storm fans were likely feeling hopeful.
Despite two losses in a row, this game saw the return of the Storm’s full spine for the first time since Round 9 this year. With the likes of Ryan Papenhuyzen, Harry Grant and Cameron Munster back in the squad together, many predicted Melbourne would return to their dominant best.
After all, the Storm rarely lose two games in a row, let alone three.
But it was not to be.
In the first half of the match Papenhuyzen left the field. It was later confirmed that he had suffered a fractured patella, which will rule him out for the rest of the season.
From there things went from bad to worse for the Storm, losing to the Raiders 20-16, suffering their third defeat in a row for the first time since Round 14-18 in 2015.
The Storm’s chances at a top-four finish now hang in the balance. While Melbourne sit in fourth spot on the ladder, there are on equal points with the Brisbane Broncos and Parramatta Eels and just two points ahead of the South Sydney Rabbitohs. They also have a string of games coming up in their run home against current top-eight teams, including the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Penrith Panthers, Brisbane Broncos and Parramatta Eels.
Do I dare to ask the question of whether the Storm will miss the top four? Or potentially even miss the finals altogether?
If the latter were to happen, it would be only the third time in the club’s history and the first time since 2010, when they were stripped of their points for salary cap breaches.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
I am of the view that the Storm will make the finals but will just miss out on the top four. But I make this prediction with caution given that every time I have predicted a Melbourne demise, they have proven me wrong.
They have the best player in the world at their disposal in Cameron Munster – a magician who can create points in almost any situation.
But even with Munster and all his ability, something seems different about the Storm this year.
One of the most impressive things about the side in recent years has been their ability to perform without their proven stars. In the past, even during the State of Origin period, the Storm managed to unearth the next crop of players who would begin to feature in their first-grade team. It became part of their strategy to be strong during this period.
Additionally, given their strong contingent of international players, there was enough leadership to guide the team through a tricky State of Origin period.
For this reason, even in years where the team has suffered significant impact due to injury, the team have managed. In fact they have rarely missed a beat.
But this year I am noticing who Melbourne are missing more and more and, with respect, the players who covered during the State of Origin period did not look like the next generation of superstars.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Then there are the injuries.
While players like Cameron Munster and Brandon Smith have missed games this year, Christian Welch and now Ryan Papenhuyzen have been ruled out for the entire season. These are two key players for the Storm from both an on-field and an off-field perspective.
Where the impact is even more noticeable is in the backline. Currently Xavier Coates is out until Round 22, George Jennings and Reimis Smith have been ruled out for the season. While Jennings and Smith are not the first two players you think of when you think of Melbourne, their injuries have meant that the side’s backline stocks are depleted. Teams have started using that to their advantage too and are targeting them on the edge, where they have been successful in scoring points.
Make no mistake, despite the challenges that face this team, Craig Bellamy will absolutely still be demanding excellence from them.
But perhaps other teams have now worked out that Melborune are vulnerable. In the past the Storm were almost untouchable, like the Penrith Panthers have become – to beat them you had to do everything right and have a little bit of luck go your way.
But as the Sharks, Raiders and Sea Eagles have demonstrated in recent weeks, this is no longer the case. The Storm are making uncharacteristic errors, including bombing certain try-scoring opportunities. They are struggling to get down the field.
They can be beaten.
Melbourne’s match this weekend is crucial to get back on track, and it is no easy mission.
The Rabbitohs are finding form at the right part of the season and are surging towards finals thanks to the efforts of Latrell Mitchell.
Souths are one of the most damaging teams when they spread the ball, which is going to be a big challenge for the inexperienced Melbourne backline.
With the ladder so congested and several teams right on their heels, each game from now on is crucial.
Where do you think the Storm will finish season 2022?
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
just saw Papz’s knee xray – ouch. maybe while he’s under the knife they can give him a decent bl00dy haircut
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
Will the Melbourne Storm miss the top four? Or finals altogether? - we can only hope so
JennyFromPenny
Guest
'10 we were playing for a prelim, as in '04 even if it wasn't clear at the time. Definitely haven't played any games there weeks 2 or 3, with Storm still allowed to play on front of their meagre September following.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Flog the dead horse, and you'll always get whipped.
Davooo
Guest
Shhhh, I'm trying to paint a picture here, you can't be bringing facts into it :laughing: Seriously though, yes, Edwards has become 'very proficient '. His figures though, are what they are because he's a busy player, he has more runs than the other fullbacks, which means more run meters etc. I'd argue that he looks as good as he does due to the team he's part of, take him out of the panthers side and I don't think he'd look that good elsewhere. Conversely, take him out of the panthers side and I think whoever filled his rile would also look quite impressive. I'm going to say Ruben Garrick is pretty close. If you look at their average meters per run, there's very little in it. Garrick leads in some stat's, Edwards in others. Now, would we call Garrick anything much more than proficient knowing he's only a stand in for a guy like Tommy T? Edwards has a solid work ethic, and fills his role well for the panthers whilst not being a prodigious or naturally gifted fullback. Everything they need, without any fuss or flash. That is exactly what the storm will need from Nick meany for the remainder of the year. Don't be surprised if meany starts pulling 200+ meters a game playing off a spine consisting of hughs, Munster and grant
JennyFromPenny
Guest
There's a total of 56 wins left in the comp. Logic says the 56 wins breakdown would be something fairly close to 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1. Not so clear which number represents which team, but fairly clear enough that around the middle of the table, team 8 will more than likely win 4. Will that be Manly finishing on 28? Or will it be Roosters or Raiders finishing on 26 (and possibly still in a +/- battle with Manly to make it)
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Two things. I never ever want to collect on this bet. I would much rather lose the money. Second . I started in 2016. LWWWWL and very likely loss this year Outlay 7 Units , Return approx 22 units. Gamble responsibly .
JennyFromPenny
Guest
I don't remember 2020.
a
Roar Rookie
They won’t miss the finals
dogs
Guest
I think Mike might be right with 12 wins. Half the comp makes the 8, so on average winning half your 24 games will get you, or very close. And as Jenny says, Penrith have taken a win off almost everyone so shifted the passmark a bit lower. So I reckon 13 wins will definitely get you in, and 12 wins probably a for and against battle. But that's just a guess.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
You would have flushed the ticket away last year. Who's winning the GF out of Storm / Roosters this time ?
JennyFromPenny
Guest
6 more wins would be 14W10L, but I doubt there's ever been a season in history where 14W10L only finished 8th. Panthers dominance of the table has played silly buggers with the standard deviation and bell curve. They have effectively taken almost two whole points off each team's tally, so my top 8 cut-off predictor is as low as 26 this year.
London Panther
Roar Rookie
I thought the Roosters match in 2020 was at Penrith Stadium….
London Panther
Roar Rookie
I think you will need to beat them in a prelim or GF to win the whole thing; to that extent I would rather not face them in the first round also….
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Panthers have won their titles playing the best teams. Not to be avoided. It's what you want. It's what they want themselves. Wk1 will be the first home ground Prelim Qualifier in 20 seasons. Whoever we allow through the gates should be in for a rough night.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Panthers have won their titles playing the best teams. Not to be avoided. It's what you want. It's what they want themselves. Wk1 will be the first home ground Prelim Qualifier in 20 seasons. Whoever we allow through the gates should be in for a rough night.
Nick
Roar Guru
You've got to face them eventually. Rather do it in a qualifying or prelim final than a granny
Nick
Roar Guru
Storm only need to win once. 26 points will get you into the finals this year, and they have a sizeable for and against buffer as well. I'm not sure where you are getting 6 Raiders wins from. They've only won 8 games this year, and suddenly you are expecting them to get 3/4 of the wins in 7 rounds that has taken them 18 to get to now? It's difficult to see any of the Roosters, Dragons or Raiders getting 10 points. Roosters might get 8, Raiders may get 8, but they've got to win well...they've got a poor F/A.
Nick
Roar Guru
Storm miss the 8? It's looking like 26 points will be the threshold to secure a spot this year. Storm are on 24 and +177 for and against. Who of the three teams currently sitting on 18 points, have it in them to win at least 4 games + overcome a substantial for and against differential to replace the Storm? Dragons? They are -112. They need 4 wins and Storm to get no wins PLUS a 145 point swing. Not a chance. Raiders? They are -42. They need to find a 105 point swing, win 4 and the Storm lose all? No. Not as emphatically no as the Dragons, but no. Roosters? They are +49. They need a 64 point swing. And hope Storm lose all games if they can only win 4. the points differential can be overcome, but I doubt the Roosters have 4 wins left in them. They play the Storm as well. But the clincher? The Storm have got the Warriors and the Titans in their remaining games. They will win at least one of those games, which means that one of three teams above will need to win five of their remaining 7 and overcome the points difference. There is NO chance the Storm are falling out of the 8.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Not sure if that is going to work. If my NRL predictor is right I have the Raiders sneaking into 8th at season's end if they win every game apart from against the Panthers. And that is a big ask. That will give them 6 wins and one loss in the next 7 rounds for 14 wins and 9 losses by season's end. If they slip up in one of those matches it could be end of their finals chances. For Melbourne to at least win 14 and make the finals they have two relatively easy games against the Warriors and Titans but also have to play the Rabbitohs (away), Panthers (away), Broncos (away), Roosters (home) and Eels (away). None of these five will be easy.