The closeness of Rugby Championship 2022 puts teams in the southern hemisphere on alert about two aspects that are often thought of as opposing.
These points are: squad depth and planning for the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
Focusing on Argentina and Australia, we see that both teams are experiencing similar urgencies in terms of the need to obtain results, improve the game and explore the depth of the squads.
During the mid-year Internationals both had the opportunity to explore two lines of work (Wallabies, Pumas and the Australia A and Argentina XV teams).
They will clash twice in Argentina starting on August 6, and will put in place the mechanisms to get the best out of the Rugby Championship.
If we were to benchmark performances, we would see that the two teams have met 18 times in the Rugby Championship with mixed fortunes, but with a winning average that favours the Wallabies by seven points.
The margin is narrow considering the history of the Wallabies.
But if we structure a ‘Forecast’ statistical function based on the results of the Rugby Championship, it would give the Wallabies the winner by 14 points on next August 6.
I think that the interesting thing would be to evaluate both teams comparatively based on the last 3 friendly matches in July.
In terms of productivity in attack, the Wallabies have shown a better face against England than Argentina could show against Scotland.
Although the demands imposed by the rivals were different, we see that Australia presented a better ratio of attacks / breaks.
On average, 26.5 per cent of Wallabies’ attacks generated breaks versus 25 per cent from Los Pumas. But when arriving within 22 M of the opponent, Wallabies made a difference with a 28% effectiveness in the ratio Visit 22 M Opp/ Tries Scored against 25% of Los Puma
Attack metrics anticipate an interesting clash. In the unstructured attack, an immediate consequence of the change in status in the game, Argentina was better positioned than Australia, converting, on average, three more points for each turnover won.
Regarding these instances of the game, the clip below shows us the importance of generating opportunities from unstructured play, which is one of the high points of Los Pumas.
Both teams showed a performance mostly inclined towards the expansive game, marking differences in terms of Possession kicked. It was higher on Wallabies but less effective against the opponent.
In this sense, the Pumas presented a better kicking game than Wallabies, since they kicked less but generated more errors in the opponent’s reception.
This is what some metrics allow us to visualise from the friendly matches in July.
If we approach the evaluations from the point of view of the cohesion studies and the composition of the squads named for RugbyChampionship, we can see that the average number of caps per player of Los Pumas is higher than that of the Wallabies (36 vs 27), which shows the intensity of Dave Rennie’s commitment to the young talent, calling 26 players with less than 30 caps and four uncapped.
Both teams have the same urgencies but different types of pressure. If Argentina wants to neutralise Australia it must fine-tune the basic and advanced execution of the scrum, ruck and defense. Also eliminate handling errors in attack situations (23) and penalties in the breakdown (19).
This is the basis for sustaining a tactical project that will lead Los Pumas to develop a dynamic, fast game that is increasingly attack-oriented.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
I have seen JOC make incredible kick errors in both SR and test rugby. Fortunately not too many, but at key moments in the game. Undoubtedly the lack of rhythm due to injuries has taken away some of his precision. But the king of social media is still Quade Cooper...!
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Hello Homer...! IRE is today ´Sexton-Dependent´ and Carbery is far from the dynamic that Ireland needs to launch the game with speed and precision. With Santiago Carreras there is too much discussion in Argentina not only in the specialized media but also in social networks. He should continue as a playmaker without being a 'natural' fly half...? The physical difficulties of Sanchez and Urdapilleta force us to consider him in this election against the recent call to Tomás Albornoz that he is a fly-half developed as such. A consideration regarding Juan M. Hernandez: in Argentina we continue to call him by the nickname of ´magician´ and his complete game still remains in my memory.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
I get your point, Bodger...! A fast game based on phase control requires a solid breakdown and a fast and effective ruck to release quality balls. And that was the Australian teams' deficit in SuperRugbyPacific against the New Zealanders. The Australians have had a high percentage of penalized breakdowns, the same as the Argentines (8.2% of the total number of rucks) in the July friendlies. And that is a symptom of the difficulties of both in controlling the game of phases. Regarding the disruptive game that every team needs, the Wallabies have in Quade Cooper the key that opens the treasure. With him on the field, everything will be uncomfortable for the Pumas defense, as he is particularly adept at launching the semi-attack with the defense scoring very close. Then comes James O'Connor.
Homer Gain
Guest
Francisco, I think that is almost always the case. There are exceptions though. Ireland are clearly developing strength in depth across the board and yet, remain very dependent on the form and fitness of Johnny Sexton. Speaking of pivotal 10s, I know it is early days, but Santiago Carreras looks like he could offer Argentina the alchemy between an assertive pack and a skillful backline that has been missing since Juan Martin Hernandez's heyday.
Bodger
Roar Rookie
Yes Rennie. Rennie isn't playing the same tactics as the Brumbies is my point. Like you said the Brumbies kicked a lot, they play for territory and are a defence based team. Rennie is trying to create an offence based team who builds phases. Our forward attack is very basic, telegraphed, flat and slow and this doesn't give us a platform for the backs. Hence we go lateral with Lolesio standing deep with the backline and it's just easy for the defence as they have all the time in the world. White and Lolesio were a big reason why our forwards were ineffective carrying I'm afraid; White holding the ball in the rucks telegraphing who is going to get the ball next and Lolesio really only a link to the backs and standing deep. We need quick ball off 9, we need a 10 who will be a pivot and play flat and we need a tight 5 who can carry in tight. There was just so much one out flat forward carries off White with a set English defence supported with a forward outside them who was obviously not getting the ball and only there to clean out. It's junior rugby league stuff and the primary area where the Wallabies need to improve if they want to play the style Rennie wants. Argentina have been a very good defensive team who Cheika is trying to turn more into a offensive team also so will be a interesting series. Cheika should just rely on the Argentina defence, play a territory based game as the Wallabies are ill-disciplined and make a lot of mistakes then play off turnovers, and that's how you beat this Australian team.
CW Moss
Roar Rookie
Now he’s injured in the 7s. That was a good move. Not!
ozziedude
Roar Rookie
What is frustrating is seeing JOC miss getable conversions or penalties which cost the Reds or Wallabies, but his instagram often has a ton of meaningless goal line conversions for the likes.. Cant imagine Jonny Wilkinson wasting time on things like that.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
I agree with you, Homer...! When a team depends on one man for momentum and effectiveness, it is a sign that something is wrong. Applies to all squads and all levels. I think 12 and 13 is a well covered position in AUS, although doubts remain about defensive performance. Don't you think so...? Greetings.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Hello NH...! The kicking game is a subject that really interests me. Beyond the individual brilliance that makes it possible for you to win a duel head-to-head, the kicking game can save effort by gaining meters in opponent territory. I think AUS is closer to winning that duel with the feet than ARG. Having the best kickers from BRU and JOC in the Wallabies is a good reason to think about it. The other reason is in the analysis of the AUS Kicked Possession Ratio and the need to improve the effectiveness.
Bobby
Roar Rookie
Tooly. Optimism is a wonderful thing, isn't it ? Think I'll join you in becoming a "Prepper" so will be gathering seeds, pickled onions (100 jars) and getting my "bug-out" trailer ready for the catastrophe that is coming ! Any idea where I can get some AR's and 30,000 rounds of ammo ? :happy: :happy:
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Hello Bodger…! Is Dave Rennie the one who selects or is there a special selector with that function in Wallabies…? The selector’s eye is essential for detecting young talent. I imagine Australia should be a fruitful ground for this. I remember that Brumbies game at SuperRugby was especially prone to kicking game. It was very effective and they were the best. White, Lolesio and Tom Wright should be the natural players in those phases of the game. Do not you believe it…? Meanwhile, in Argentina we are going through an emotional impasse after winning the series against SCO. I send you a greeting…!
Homer Gain
Guest
I'm genuinely perplexed by this latter-day hero worship of Samu Kerevi. He is clearly a strong-runner, and an improved kicker-cum-ball handler. But he has been part of an essentially losing Aussie set up since 2016. That is not to blame him for this disappointing era, but nor does it suggest he is the man to make the winning difference. The suggestion that Quade Cooper has had a late career transformation into all-round Napoleon of the rugby field is equally strange, but I know that's an even greater heresy, so I won't even go there.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Having the A team has been great for Oz as it has allowed Rennie to see how players do with his style. By the end of the year alot of those A players will know better what the need to do to make the WC
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Excellent, Harry...! I can already imagine it. Go ahead with those tasty episodes.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Hello Tooly...! I was thankful for your comment about the prediction tools. According to the ancient Romans, history is ´mater et magistra´ and I see no reason to distrust this argument. It will be a fascinating series ARGvAUS.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Thanks for reading, Nick...! Cheers
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Thanks CW...! The comments help broaden the reading of what we are looking for and find in the game.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Hi Noodles how are you...! I still think the magic word is 'depth'. Eddie Jones had already told us about it a few years ago when he told us about a 23-player rugby. Replacing the front line and the rest of the pack is vital to sustaining the game. The game with the foot never ceases to amaze me, especially the South African Of the rest of the teams in the southern hemisphere, AUS is the one that maintains the greatest propensity for kicking game with almost 10% of its possession kicked.
Harry Jones
Expert
Big week on the pod coming up! Partly because of you! (Shhhh…) #mysteryguest
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Arguing over ´cheika yes, cheika no´ has become common in Argentina. Only he has the power to give us an answer based on the quality of the game and the forcefulness of the results.