'If I knew you would do that': Raynal made the right decision the wrong way

By OracleRugby / Roar Rookie

I have read all sorts of comments about the legality of Mathieu Raynal’s decision – the timing of it, how it changed the result of the first Bledisloe Test.

I even read an amazing piece by Harry Jones on the ‘shrug’, to which I agree to a certain extent.

But I have another theory that may just clear up a lot of misconception about what actually happened.

Before you comment, kindly note the following:

• Was Raynal correct? Yes.
• Did Raynal warn Bernard Foley? Yes.
• Was the scrum correctly awarded? Yes.
• Did Foley’s teammates warn him? Yes.
• Did Foley take too long? Yes.
• Have I seen this awarded before? No.
• Did awarding the scrum change the result? No.
• Is this a good law? No.

My theory is based on punishment, the imposition of a penalty as retribution for an offence.

The offence in this case is Foley taking too long.

An analogy to explain my theory, a ten-year-old child gets called for dinner, but regularly takes his time and eventually seats himself down at the table before he begins eating.

One day the child is late, as he has been many times before, but this time there is no plate of food. The child asks, “Where is my food?” His parents tell him it’s been thrown away as punishment for taking too long to get to the table.

He says to his parents, “If I knew you would do that, I would not have been late.”

I believe 100 per cent that Foley did not know what would happen. Had he known what Raynal would have done, he would not have pushed his luck?

I suspect this one incident will set a precedent and we should see a little speeding up going forward.

I never moan at refs, and I am not going to start now. Raynal was entitled to make the decision, he did warn Foley, his teammates warned him, but Foley tried to call his bluff. But Foley did not know what was behind the bluff.

I am an analyst by trade, I understand the mathematics and implications of the decision and they are quite big.

Some suggested the game was gifted to New Zealand. This is obviously not true, but they were given a huge advantage.

The decision turned Australia’s 90 per cent probability of winning into a 70 per cent probability of the All Blacks winning – a massive swing in anyone’s book.

Raynal could have and should have implemented this law at other stages of the game.

Let’s say for a moment that Raynal had done this at the 54th minute, when the play was at the halfway line. The change in winning probability would be minimised, in fact I am likely to believe it would be a 50 per cent probability of three points, but that is my guess.

The only crime for me is Raynal’s lack of explaining what punishment would be prior to his final warning.

Rugby is a game of warnings: play it, leave it, kick it, throw it, etc. All are made with knowledge of the punishment. But I have never seen a penalty taken too late, as in Thursday’s circumstances, despite a clock on screen.

If rugby is a game of warnings and consistency, why was that missing?

Lastly, we have a clock that stops. If this was intended to stop time wasting, it has not worked.

If World Rugby is serious about stopping time-wasting, let’s start with the clock. Go ‘time on’ once the ball has been kicked or, better yet, once the line-out has been thrown.

I understand that TV dictates how long a game can go on for, but if a game goes over, then the team should be fined.

Ultimately, this was a melting pot of actions, consequences and unhappiness that could have been avoided with better clock-management, consistency of penalties, and timing of the decision.

The Crowd Says:

2022-09-26T07:31:47+00:00

Daffyd

Roar Rookie


There's a consistent furphy about this that needs to be cleared up. I must admit I first thought the same, was called on it and on a closer look changed my mind. Foley is not in the act of kicking when the whistle blows. He is stationery. In the video I saw, Foley is looking over his left shoulder, before taking a glance to the right and then starts his steps. The referee comes into picture and gives the appearance of stopping him from taking the kick. Without the audio it gives all the appearance of the ref stopping Foley in his run-up. It is vital to have the audio for the full picture. (excuse the pun). I've struggled to find the video I saw where the audio has not been overdubbed losing that critical whistle. Without that whistle it appears quite different. This aerial video (tiktok via facebook) shows the full incident, in many respects better than the ground level. as it is possible to see when the ref make the decision to blow the whistle. https://www.facebook.com/colvin.brown.5/videos/1454853251649551 Penalty is blown at the 7 second mark. Time on is blown at 44 seconds. ... "and we play now." Watch from there a few times. The ref moves to try to get into Foley's sight line. Calls "10" (Foleys number) to get his attention as Foley is looking at the forwards continuing huddle 180 degrees from where the ref is standing. The ref waits... And he waits, then raises the whistle. Foley still has not moved. At 55 seconds, the ref blows the whistle and takes a step toward the mark. Look closely and you'll see Foley is still in kicking stance but still has not moved till half a second after the whistle.! Please don't say Foley was pulled up taking the kick. He wasn't.

2022-09-22T12:31:57+00:00

Fotoflyer

Guest


That’s a ridiculous analogy. We rarely see anybody convicted for treason, does that mean the next person accused of treason should be let off? Well, yes, if the multitudes are running around committing treasonous acts, then why are you singling the next person out?

2022-09-22T02:00:54+00:00

TiredOldGit

Roar Rookie


Well as my article asked, is rugby wrestling? Nic White is the hated Iron Sheik and the ref used the steel chair on the villain's chest and the crowd cheered :silly: :silly: :silly:

2022-09-22T01:23:31+00:00

ColinT

Roar Rookie


Correct Ken. JM is just making up some facts to suit his argument. 15 seconds elapsed after time was called. In that 15 sec the ref called time twice and blew the whistle as Foley was in the act of kicking the ball. Prior to starting his run up, Foley was looking over his left shoulder at his team mates in the huddle. The referee was about 5 metres away on his right side. The crowd noise was deafening. The actual rule (20.5.) just prescribes that “A penalty or free-kick must be taken without delay”. The delay is not defined and the referee can interpret it anyway he wishes. There is no requirement that the delay be reasonable in the circumstances, the referee could penalise after 5 seconds if he wanted to and be within the black letter of the law. So perhaps the delay law does need to be defined in the laws of the game.

2022-09-21T20:45:04+00:00

Guess

Roar Rookie


Was Raynal correct? No :thumbup:

2022-09-21T19:49:16+00:00

Ken Catchpole's Other Leg

Roar Guru


A 160% turnaround?

2022-09-21T12:50:34+00:00

Ken Catchpole's Other Leg

Roar Guru


“ All his teammates were shouting and raising their arms to make him go quickly but he ignored them.” Half his team mates were in a huddle. You’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

2022-09-21T12:47:36+00:00

Ken Catchpole's Other Leg

Roar Guru


The greater good drowns in many seas.

2022-09-21T12:43:51+00:00

Ken Catchpole's Other Leg

Roar Guru


Excellent analysis.

AUTHOR

2022-09-21T09:14:13+00:00

OracleRugby

Roar Rookie


It is a load on the officials, rather have a time keeper and switch off the clock so that time wasting is eliminated rather than penalised in a ridiculous fashion. The punishment does not fit the crime

2022-09-21T06:45:10+00:00

Bryce

Guest


Why do you say it is not a good law? The intent of the law is to stop teams deliberately running the clock down and delaying the game. It should also be applied when teams go into a "huddle" (a la gridiron pratice) to discuss their next play. It is a GOOD LAW if it speeds up the game!

2022-09-21T06:37:08+00:00

PC

Roar Rookie


I just think Nick White is such an annoying person who comes across aggressively and most people do not take that very well. Whether the ref's finger actually touched White has not been clarified to my knowledge. So a bit of finger wagging? Nick's response was "You cost us the Championship". That, was frankly a massive exaggeration! A huge call! But in the heat of the moment something that was designed to rile the ref.

2022-09-21T06:32:39+00:00

PC

Roar Rookie


Couldn't agree more. Over the years, I have seen all sorts of contentious issues that Australian players have reacted to poorly and inevitably misinterpreted or got their own way. From The Brumbies getting the coach sacked to supporting Quade Cooper's attack on McCaw to what happened last weekend. Foley just did not think he had to do what he had been asked to do on multiple occasions. What senior experienced player would think that! But the worst part is the sense of aggrievement and entitlement the players seem to think they have. It's one reason other teams love beating the Aussies because they know the reaction that is coming and it brings a smile to their faces. Whatever Foley says will be in an effort to minimise any responsibility he has for this event. So lots of spin. When in reality he should just learn from it.

2022-09-21T05:20:37+00:00

Jm

Guest


Then change the rules if theyare not correct !!! The ref is the guy who applies the rules. all refs in all games can make decisions that not all people agree with but that is how it goes. Otherwise do not play with a ref and let the players decide.

2022-09-21T05:16:02+00:00

Jm

Guest


You got it wrong. The ref warned Foley numerous times about time wasting so communication was spot on. I think Foley was making as if he didn’t care about it and took his time making the clock turning to win the match easier. All his teammates were shouting and raising their arms to make him go quickly but he ignored them. He got what he deserved. Let’s put it the other way round and it was NZ getting warnings and a penalty against them at the same moment of the game I don’t think any aussie would had any complaint about it. Australia defended poorly the last scrum and that was it. Bad losers.

2022-09-21T03:28:57+00:00

Rob Silcock

Guest


Everyone seems to have overlooked the fact that there is a very good reason for this happening at this point in the game. If Foley had of kicked it out, there was a small chance that the ABs could have got possession and scored. Just like with the underarm incident, Aussie did not want that chance given, so they cheated

2022-09-21T02:51:08+00:00

Robzik

Roar Rookie


The conversation on this topic has been very interesting. My gripe is that even if a warning was given, he blew his whistle and awarded a scrum even after he saw that Foley was running forward o take the kick. If Foley had his back turned to him and was ignoring his directives one could understand it. But not when Foley is actually in the process of complying with them. A bit rich in my book. Still an example of " how NOT to referee a game".

2022-09-21T02:36:10+00:00

ShaghaiDoc

Roar Rookie


This is not the first time this rule has been enforced. James O'Connor received a red card for throwing the ball away after the referee had warned our boys to stop time wasting. I think it was in Wellington and the referee was Joubert? How Koroibete ever lasts 80 minutes is a mystery to me. I suspect other officials would have sent him off twice in the latest iteration of Red Neck Wallaby Diplomacy. Please someone tell him what his arms are for!! He will cause further embarrassment at the RWC when he is almost surely due for an early shower at a critical moment. Who can seriously argue that the attack on the knee of the poor AB was accidental? The man is a dumb F.... . In Victoria it is lore that if you are going to hit a bloke, make sure he can't get up. This clown can't even perform a head butt that causes injury.

2022-09-20T23:35:01+00:00

Glenn Shaw

Guest


I hear a lot about this law never being enforced and the refs later released comments. The most remarkable thing to me about that footage was how much Foley had been warned . I have never seen that level of repeated warning , yet aline it bring ignored. Rest of the aussie team seemed to understand the point to the degree of ahoutimg at their team mate . How do you fault the ref here ? I fully respect if Mr Foley has develoental challenges , as some rugby players do, but responding to basic guidance seems a reasonable expectation.

2022-09-20T23:07:47+00:00

TiredOldGit

Roar Rookie


When we look at the bigger picture outside this event, or a number events like the final decision in the lions game Vs the ABs, the question for me is: how did a sport let the role of a referee get to the level where play to the whistle means they can do what they want? No other sport would stand for it. But because there is always a side that benefits from subjective reffing and all they want is a win, the greater good drowns.

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