The NRL stat that can win it for each of the final four

There is a logical line of thinking to support each of the remaining four teams’ chances in the NRL finals.

Whilst the Panthers will be firm favourites with the bookies, the Cowboys, Rabbitohs and Eels are not without a shot heading into the final fortnight of the season. Yet like Penrith, the other three will require a continued dominance in the statistical areas that have laid their platforms for success in 2022.

Parramatta has been a force in post-contact metres, accumulating 16,228 to this point in the season and achieving almost 1000 more than the second-placed Panthers in that area of the game. The Eels eclipse the Rabbitohs by a similar margin, with the Cowboys another 1000 or so metres in arrears.

The fact that the final four are all ranked in the top five in metres gained once initial contact has been made simply accentuates the importance of the statistic and the focus Brad Arthur should be placing on it heading into the clash with the Cowboys on Friday night.

Put simply, the Eels rely on post-contact metres for the go forward that has seen them topple the Panthers twice in 2022; form that could well see them claim a fourth and long-awaited premiership.

The Cowboys will be relying on the shrewd kicking game of Chad Townsend against the Eels and potentially in the decider the following week.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

With 9,918 metres made from his boot this season, second only behind Matt Burton at the Bulldogs, Townsend has provided the direction and poise Todd Payten sought in the Cowboys’ attack. With plenty of weapons ready to pounce if granted decent field position, Townsend’s astute kicking has laid the platform for the skilled men outside him to capitalise.

With kicking historically a vital component in finals matches, another skilled and accurate performance from Townsend will be essential should North Queensland even dream of toppling the Eels and moving on to the grand final against either the Panthers or the Bunnies.

South Sydney has been the most effective team in the competition when it comes to line engagement and line breaks in 2022. For that reason, I have connected the two statistics in identifying exactly where the keys to a potential South Sydney premiership lie.

No team has engaged the line more often that the cardinal and myrtle, with the Bunnies’ 550 engagements leading to 150 line breaks.

Of the four remaining teams, Penrith’s 126 is the next-best, with the Eels and Cowboys sitting right behind them on 125 and 123 respectively. Similar to the post contact metres metric, the importance of engaging and breaking the line in the modern game lies at the core of success.

South Sydney has done it as well as any team this season and if to achieve consecutive grand final appearances and improve the chances of a record 22nd premiership, the statistic will be one in which they simply have to excel against the Panthers on Saturday night.

For reigning premiers Penrith, the win-loss column was mightily impressive in 2022, as just four home-and-away matches were lost across the season. The 636 points scored reflect a firing attack and the 330 against betters every other team’s defensive record in the league by some distance.

At home, the Panthers won 10 and lost two. Away, they did exactly the same. The Mountain Men were third in run metres, first in kick return metres and second in post-contact metres behind the Eels.

However, the key statistic for Penrith heading into the final fortnight is the most basic of all and potentially the one most worshipped by coaches: completions.

Penrith lead the competition in completions; controlling the ball at 81 per cent, with the Eels close behind at 80. The Cowboys complete at a respectable 78 per cent, whilst the Bunnies rely on dare as opposed to diligence and end just 75 per cent of the attacking sets they began.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

For the Panthers, completions mean everything, for the simple reason that in matches where they show poise, patience and pragmatism, their skill and talent across the field subsequently makes them near unbeatable.

The only way the Panthers will be denied repeat premierships will be if they are somehow ruffled, dishevelled and unsettled; with poor ball control leading to frustration and their opponent achieving a rare thing by unsettling the Cleary-run machine.

That situation has rarely arisen across the previous three seasons and the Panthers will be near impossible to beat if it is avoided this week and next.

However, should the Eels dominate post-contact metres, the Cowboys use the kicking game to control tempo and the Bunnies bust the line at the same rate they have all season, all four teams will still hold hopes of lifting the trophy on grand final day.

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