The T20 World Cup Super 12 stage is down to the final few games and Australia’s chances of defending their title are hanging by a thread.
Their heavy loss to New Zealand in their first match, coupled with their MCG washout against England and the Poms beating the Kiwis on Tuesday night, means Australia are at long odds to progress from Group 1.
With one match left for each team, New Zealand, Australia and England are now tied on five points with Sri Lanka one adrift after avoiding any washouts and splitting their four results 2-2.
Group 2 is also going down to the wire but barring an upset result, India should be one of the two teams advancing to the semi-finals but South Africa’s chances of joining them copped a blow with their loss to Pakistan on Wednesday night.
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Sydney will host the first semi-final on Wednesday, November 9, with Adelaide Oval the venue for the next one the following day with the MCG set to be sold out for the final on Sunday night.
The T20 World Cup semi-finals equation
Group 1
1. New Zealand (Five points, 2-1-1 record, NRR +2.233): The Black Caps have a superior net run rate of +2.233, largely due to their 89-run thumping of Australia at the SCG to kick off the Super 12 stage. They meet Ireland on Friday afternoon in the Adelaide Oval curtain-raiser. If they win, they’re in.
Jos Buttler of England hits the ball for a four. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
2. England (Five points, 2-1-1 record, NRR +0.547): The victory over the Kiwis at the Gabba on Tuesday night has given England one foot in the door and they have the luxury of sitting back watching New Zealand and Australia play before their final group game against Sri Lanka on Saturday. If NZ win and the Aussies thump Afghanistan, England will know exactly what their equation will be when they step onto the SCG and can play accordingly.
3. Australia (Five points, 2-1-1 record, NRR -0.304): The equation is relatively simple – beat Afghanistan by the biggest margin in the quickest time possible to put the pressure on England against Sri Lanka. With injury clouds over Aaron Finch, Tim David and Marcus Stoinis, their chances of back-to-back World Cup trophies are looking slim.
4. Sri Lanka (Four points, 2-2 record, NRR -0.457): They are a mathematical chance – they need Ireland or Australia to lose and then they’ll have to upset England.
Mitchell Starc of Australia celebrates a wicket. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
5. Ireland (Three points, 1-2-1 record, NRR -1.544): It would take all the luck of the Irish for them to sneak into the semis. Basically they’d need to flog New Zealand enough to make up the net run rate between them, and then hope that Australia lose so they’d advance alongside the winner of England vs Sri Lanka. More important for the Irish is sneaking into the top four in the group which guarantees them automatic entry to the next World Cup in the US and Caribbean in 2024.
6. Afghanistan (Two points, 0-2-2 record, NRR -0.718): It’s a shame that they’ve had a couple of washouts, particularly what would have been an historic first appearance at the MCG. They need to save face with a decent showing against Australia.
Group 2
1. India (Six points, 3-1 record, NRR +0.73): They are all but in the semis after winning Wednesday night’s clash with Bangladesh in Adelaide. A win over Zimbabwe to finish should not cause too many problems.
2. South Africa (Five points, 2-1-1 record, NRR +1.441): The Proteas looked like they had booked their spot in the semis when they knocked over India in Perth on the weekend but they took a step backwards when they lost to Pakistan in Sydney on Thursday. They should still be able to advance by knocking over the Dutch in Adelaide on Sunday.
Quinton de Kock bats. (Photo by Steve Bell – ICC/ICC via Getty Images)
3. Pakistan (Four points, 2-2 record, NRR +1.117): If they had have held their nerve in the final over of their first two matches against India and Zimbabwe, they’d be at the top of the group. They have kept their hopes alive by downing South Africa in a rain-shortened clash in Sydney on Thursday but now have to beat Bangladesh and hope the Proteas are washed out (so they can leapfrog them on net run rate) or go down to the Netherlands.
4. Bangladesh (Four points, 2-2 record, NRR -1.276): They threw caution to the wind against the might of India and nearly added to their win over them from 2019. They now need to upset Pakistan in Adelaide on Sunday and hope the Proteas wilt to ensure an unlikely semi-final berth.
5. Zimbabwe (Three points, 1-2-1 record, NRR -0.313): They are all but out of the hunt after losing to the previously winless Dutch in Adelaide on Wednesday afternoon. They won’t cause a boilover against India on Sunday night in Melbourne.
6. Netherlands (Two points, 1-3 record, NRR -1.233): They were outclassed in their first three matches but took their only realistic chance of a win on Wednesday afternoon against Zimbabwe.
DTM
Roar Rookie
I honestly don't see Agar playing test cricket whilst Lyon is there. If they play two spinners, they'll want a leggie and Swepson still number 1 in that dept. Hardie will need to continue to deliver for WA. As a junior, there wasn't much between him and Green but I thought Hardie was better.
boes
Roar Pro
Hardie certainly has got some good numbers up already. I’d like to see him make another couple of 100’s this shield season. Then of course you have Teague Wyllie. I can’t see Agar finding his way into the test side other than as a second spinner.
DTM
Roar Rookie
Even the WA media hasn't thought this far left field. Stoinis struggles to get through 20 overs in the field and has the attention span of a 6 year old so test cricket is not for him. We're happy spruiking our gun all rounders in Green, Hardie, Agar etc.
boes
Roar Pro
I've seen this posted by Frankie d several times but haven't heard it come from any other source. Maybe they are spruiking it in WA media but not something I've heard and I watch and read way too much sports media.
boes
Roar Pro
More the fool you for putting out a reasoned, statistically based counterpoint. :silly:
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
True, l wasn't particularly worried about Australia not making it. More that l l think one country has had two rained out matches and that is a poor way to sort a tournament out. As for Australia they are their own worst enemy with such a stale selection panel.
Ace
Roar Rookie
Quite right Targa. Heaven forbid Stoinis should come into calculations. And I think Marnus has had a ton this season. Frank may be right on a couple who will get picked regardless
Ace
Roar Rookie
Yes Don, the pub coup crew. A very tight knit group. I'll add a couple ,or three, more names to those you mentioned McDermott and Silk. Ellis. It's becoming so difficult to get a talented younger cricketer into this team. They will be as old these blokes before they can get a chance.
Brian
Guest
Sure but play that out and if all games are completed England probably beat Ireland which means given Australia's poor NRR even if they win the rescheduled game against England unless they thrash England they wouldn't maek the top 2. It was the first game loss to NZ and allowing the Irish recovery which will knock Australia out not the weather.
Targa
Roar Rookie
How is Stoinis in test contention?
Targa
Roar Rookie
I’d say the CPL and Vitality Blast are both better than the PSL. The SuperSmash and BBL might be too.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I think you’ll find Turner’s BBL strike rate is 142 and he has scored 1100 more runs than Tim David. If any of those other boys played IPL or PSL, their numbers would be better. But really! PSL? That’s like suburban Sunday slash. It’s played by players who can’t get a state game.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You cannot say Cartwright or Hardie has been "tried and found wanting" in no games. No one is claiming Short is a good Oz selection but averaging 30 opening is way better than carrying a handful of 17no into an average batting at the end. No one is claiming Turner should be in the Oz side. Both, however, are way better than David, hence their aggregates are so much higher and averages the same. They bat through an innings, David slogs for the last few overs and carries his bat. You are really struggling between knowing cricket and clutching at mathematics. Philippe has a way better BBL record. David should not have been selected ahead of Philippe, Short, Turner or even Aaron Hardie whose average and strike rate are comparable enough when balanced by frontline bowling too. Nevertheless, I'm not arguing that any of these should be selected ahead of him, (Green should) but that he is an inferior cricketer to all of them and that's only WA. He is, in fact, inferior to about 45 other grade cricketers in WA.
Tempo
Roar Rookie
To answer your question, yes: - In the IPL he's scored 187 runs at 31, striking at 210. - In the PSL (generally regarded as the second best franchise league), he's scored 458 runs at 42, striking at 182. - In the BBL he's scored 606 runs at 25, striking at 153. Sorry, you're going to move the goalposts again to claim that Ashton Turner with his T20I SR of 84 is a better player.
Tempo
Roar Rookie
- Josh Philippe - 10 T20Is, 138 runs at 13.8, SR 109 - Hilton Cartwright - No T20Is but has 2 ODIs, 2 runs at 1.0, SR 8.69. In domestic T20s averages 28 at a strike rate of 125 - D'Arcy Short - 23 T20Is, 642 runs at 30.6, SR 119 - Ashton Turner - 18 T20Is, 108 runs at 12, SR 84 - Aaron Hardie - No T20Is, in the BBL has 31 games, 275 runs at 16.7, SR 130 Philippe, Short and Turner have all had similar or greater opportunities to play T20I cricket for Australia than Tim David and all have performed worse than him. D'Arcy Short has been the best, but his slow scoring means his innings are generally match-losing ones (30 off 25 type innings). Hilton Cartwright and Aaron Hardie both have very mediocre T20 domestic records. I'm sure you'll make all the excuses in the world for them though, since obviously the Australian XI should be entirely populated by WA contracted players :laughing:
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Of course it doesn’t…100 runs is nothing. Has he scored 500 runs yet in proper T20 cricket? Most of his runs are for Singapore against countries like Canada and the USA.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
"To be fair..." How is that fair? That is pig-headed bias. Which players have been "tried and found wanting"? Numbers? Examples? When have they been tried? When have they been found "wanting". You are going to struggle big time with this one.
Tempo
Roar Rookie
I guess having the highest strike rate of any player in the IPL, PSL and BBL with over 100 runs doesn't count for anything? Ridiculous to say he'd done nothing to justify selection - he's been excellent in multiple leagues around the world. An example of a punt was selecting Cameron Green in T20Is off zero domestic performances. And he's shown promise in that format so far, providing some justification for the longshot.
Tempo
Roar Rookie
To be fair, WA fans are a fairly one-eyed bunch - evidenced by their strange worship of Justin Langer. All those players you mentioned have been tried and found wanting at international level, with the exception of Aaron Hardie - who is yet to set the BBL on fire (though this could be his year given his development this year). I've still got hopes for Josh Philippe, but Cartwright, Turner and Short are solid domestic players at best. Tim David has done better than any of those players in his brief Australian career to date (above all, he's scored at a good strike rate - not at sub-110 SR like all the players you've mentioned), and he's done well at the highest quality domestic competitions like the IPL and PSL.
Harvey Wilson
Roar Rookie
Totally agree and most of these can apply to other formats too. The problem with the team has always been that it is harder to get out than in. There will always be a former teammate or player in the team heading to the media to vouch for someone who is terribly out of form and should realistically be dropped. The selectors take too much notice of that and not enough on just picking the best players.