The Thursday Two-up: Biggest surprises and how the south matches up to north so far

By now we’ve all seen our teams in action in *the norf*, and we’ve probably all watched a game or two not involving our teams as well. It’s not just players and coaches and teams that use the November Tests 12 months out to study up ahead of the upcoming Rugby World Cup.

So what have we made of it all by now? Have any teams gained or lost a bit of mystique in your eyes? Any team better than you expected? Or worse?

And what of your team? Happy with the progression? Worried about a lack thereof? Too early to draw conclusions?

This is the week to admit to any surprises, or concede any misguided perceptions – because in a few short weeks’ time, what you’ll have learned will only magnify any confidence or concern you were already holding.

So I guess it’s confession time…

Question 1: All teams have played one game on their northern tour by now and several have played two. What’s been the biggest surprise of any of the teams you’ve seen in action so far?

Geoff
The biggest surprise for me was seeing South Africa enter a pivotal, ’top of the rankings’ clash without a goal-kicker.

The Boks aren’t averse to scoring tries, but it’s no secret that their game revolves around accumulation of points – that’s very hard to do if you’re turning down shots for goal from 35m away because you don’t have anyone who can reliably make the distance!

Remember, this is the World Cup champion we’re talking about, not the Eeketahuna Pizzle Rot Thirds.

Not that this act of self-immolation stopped Rassie banging out another round of referee whingeing on social media. Because, when you lose by three points, and when you don’t have a goal-kicker, it’s always the ref’s fault…

Harry
I thought Ireland and France would look more commanding. More like a clear 1-2 duopoly. A Spartan bi-monarchy.

The Irish were to be gods of the attack. A labyrinthine scoring lab. The French the most physical team on earth; impervious.

Well, the Irish scored two tries on the Boks. One a maul that was shunted like a railway off a cliff. Only Spelunker van der Flier saved it with a tunnel the Thai boys would’ve loved.

The other required a dodgy pass. Less than 20 points scored; only the All Blacks in the first Test kept them that low (but let in 3 tries). No 6N team held Ireland under 20 points.

Also, Ireland built 20 fewer rucks than South Africa, made fewer breaks (3-4), had the ball only 45 percent of the time, had 45 percent of the territory, kicked more than the Boks, and did not look comfortable in long phases.

France was supposed to be more physically dominant than South Africa. I doubt the Wallabies think so.

Australia ran almost 500 metres in Paris with the ball; at Sydney they made 204 metres against the Boks and scored 8 points courtesy of one consolation try.

Jock Campbell (Photo by Xavier Laine/Getty Images)

Neither team looks any better (or worse) than New Zealand and South Africa; Ireland can be slowed and France can be scored on.

Nobes
If we look at the teams from the South I think the biggest surprise was that of Los Pumas winning at Twickenham.

We’ll see in the next games if England is a not so strong team or they found some Pumas that complicated everything for them.

Without knowing the result, we look at the match stats and we would say that England would have won easily, but the statistics do not always reflect the final scores. A pleasant surprise was the try of Emiliano Boffelli since it is the evidence that is being worked on during the week.

(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images

I found it very gratifying, beyond the result, the way Australia played the French as equals, surpassing them in many aspects of the game that those in blue were supposed to be superior to.

It seemed to me that the Springboks have not been playing at the level expected as current world champion. Failures and lack of concentration to which we are not accustomed, and it is something that surprises me.

Those from the North reflected a great team in Ireland that knows what they play and does it very well. A very physical team that knew how to live up to what the Springboks normally offer you in that regard.

France seemed weaker to me than I supposed before the match, and by this I don’t mean that they are an immature team, on the contrary, since I think that together with Ireland, they are the two best exponents of the North at the moment.

I just thought they were at a higher level than the one they showed at home.

Brett
Rust. The biggest surprise is rust.

Well no, actually, that’s a bit unfair. Certainly, all teams have looked a bit slow on their first showings on tour – with the possible exception of Japan, who by the time they scared the pants of New Zealand in Tokyo a fortnight ago, they had come off a pretty handy three-game warm-up series against Australia A.

So all teams were rusty in their first Test, so what I probably mean is that a lot of storied club and franchise combinations within those teams looked off. And that was a surprise in that all these guys had played a decent amount of rugby coming into the Autumn Nations Series.

The Leinster connection through Ireland. The Toulouse combination through Les Bleus. Dupont and Ntamack were well contained by some excellent Wallabies defence, but at times they looked both like they couldn’t find each other on the field and that they perhaps hadn’t played together anyway.

For all the rugby that has been played in the north this back half of the year, it was certainly a surprise to see some pretty big names getting around like they hadn’t played much at all.

Antoine Dupont of France is tackled by Nic White of Australia. (Photo by Aurelien Meunier/Getty Images)

And that’s why Ireland, France and England really didn’t look like three of the official top five last week. Which certainly was a surprise.

And a shout-out to Los Pumas, on that front. Land in London from all corners of the rugby world, turn over another page from Cheika’s Book of Organised Chaos, and boomfa. An historic Twickenham win. How good.

Digger
If I was to say I was surprised by any team it would be France, a side whom I expected to be far more authoritative in their play.

But at the same time, it was not a surprise to me to see the Wallabies push them as I am not so down on them as perhaps others are.

Should we be surprised by a ‘clunky’ performance for any of the Northern sides in their first hit out for a while? No, I cannot say I was overly surprised by the performances so far.

The Irish Bok affair was as I expected and fell the ‘expected’ way given the team sheets named. The Welsh often cannot seem to pitch up against the All Blacks for reasons unknown; the Scots often make hard work of sides they are supposed to beat, and if the Pumas can roll into NZ and win then Twickenham is not beyond them either, though I must admit I did expect an English victory.

Rather than a team, I was surprised by one player in particular and that was Antonie Dupont. There is no doubting his quality but it was not his best performance, some might suggest a shocker even. I’m sure he will bounce back hard this weekend.

Question 2: Where do you feel your team sits relative to the northern hemisphere teams, now that they have tasted action in Europe?

Geoff
I think it’s fair to say that, at this stage, both the Wallabies and All Blacks are sitting somewhere close to their rightful place. A win against Scotland and a loss to France were in line with most people’s predictions for the Wallabies, albeit that either match could easily have gone the other way.

Away from the scoreboard, the on-field performance lines up as well. World-class maul defence, flashes of brilliance on attack, blended in with frustrating lapses in concentration and discipline. Same as it ever was.

The real measure of this All Blacks tour is the match at Twickenham, so a proper assessment won’t be forthcoming for another fortnight. But it’s fair to say that the performance against Wales exceeded expectations; again getting away from the score and focusing on the uncompromising approach to the clean-out and the clinical work of the pack in the red zone, this was everything fans have been asking for, and it was duly delivered.

We’ll know where things sit relative to Scotland and England soon, but what we can say with certainty is that Wales are no closer to turning back what is now a 70-year black tide.

Harry
See Question 1.

The Boks (with a goalkicker) are a problem. A problem for Ireland in Pool B. A problem for France in a quarterfinal, if that’s how it falls.

That is regardless of the Marseilles result, because South Africa will use a real kicker in the World Cup.

Ireland is 1 and France is 2 and New Zealand won the southern trophy, but my wee Boklings are a serious problem. Maybe the number one problem.

(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

Nobes
I think that Los Pumas are in a comfort zone having won this first game that on paper looked like the most difficult of the three.

In no way do I want to underestimate Wales and Scotland as they will be matches as or more complicated than Sunday’s.

I would like to see more rotation in the team, but Michael Cheika already has his default team and will only rotate when necessary due to rests or injuries.

Before starting this window the only thing I asked for was for the team to be competitive and it is. It doesn’t play very nice but exploits their qualities and is very efficient when it comes to scoring points.

The judges from the North seem to like them better as they defended 75% of the time with only 10 penalties when they had been committing 20 per game in The Rugby Championship.

Let’s hope that against Wales the weather helps, and they can play a little more open rugby, and score more tries like the one Boffelli capitalized in the beginning of the second half against England.

Brett
On reflection, a few days after the fact, I don’t think I really properly considered what the guys would say in answering this question, because of course we’re all going to say our team standing feels about right.

And even after what we all said about the official ranking last week, there was still a pretty widespread consensus – even from your guys in the comments – that teams are kind of like water, and do always tend to find their level.

But, that all said, there will be no doubt the Wallabies pushing France as far as they did will set up their tour nicely now, and that the three remaining games against Italy, Ireland, and Wales will present chances to leave the northern hemisphere with a different idea about the Wallabies.

And they will – and should – think they can beat Ireland, even knowing they will be a lot better in two weeks’ time. They’ll have noted the way South Africa pushed them here and there, and dealt with their enveloping attack pretty well. Some injury niggles in key players this week could be more significant next week.

Australia has to believe they’re good enough to take advantage of that. A 3 from 5 Spring Tour would be great, but a 4 of 5 tour would definitely move more than just perceptions of where the Wallabies sit in the grand scheme of things.

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Digger
Despite my lack of faith in the world rankings I would suggest they are about right for the All Blacks in relation to their Northern counterparts.

Wales have been easily dispatched and on form anyway, the All Blacks look very capable of taking Scotland and England on this tour, all of whom sit behind them in the rankings.

Scotland’s expansive approach may be fun to watch, but I feel this will feed right into the All Blacks strengths and they will be more than comfortable facing them.

England’s patchy form would be of concern to their faithful though, in my view at least, there is more than enough talent, and an experienced All Black-beating Head Coach that they will know they can tip the All Blacks apple cart over.

But I suspect this All Blacks squad will (or should) be so highly motivated to ‘return serve’ after their semi-final hiding in 2019 and that they will get past England this time round.

I certainly do not think we can suggest we are on par with Ireland or France just yet, though the form reversal we have witnessed in recent times certainly has me less apprehensive about facing either of them. It’s a shame it won’t be for a wee while but such is life.

Behind Ireland and France and above the rest is where I would put the All Blacks in ranking them against the North. I suppose most would say that’s ‘middling’.

OVER TO YOU: What’s surprised you most of any of the teams you’ve seen in action this series?

And where is your team at, relative to teams they’ve faced so far?