The top-ranked team in rugby as the big year starts is also the most dependent of all teams on one player. A 37-year old rickety flyhalf who broke his cheekbone last weekend. Ireland will go as far as Jonny Sexton takes them.
He is more than a pinpoint kicker. He is the vortex of the complex Irish whirlpool attack. He is the best on-field coach in Test rugby. He pushes his teammates harder than any other leader.
His will and his skill probably translate to his team being a converted try better with than without him. Maybe even ten points.
It is no stretch to postulate that if Sexton had been there for Ireland’s match in Paris in 2022 the Six Nations trophy would reside in Dublin.
If he keeps getting knocked the problem will be recovery and if he is not fit to lead Ireland in a quarterfinal, Irish eyes will not be smiling.
Yes, there are other stars in Andy Farrell’s side. Prop-playmaker Tadgh Furlong, master thief Taidgh Beirne, backline glue Robbie Henshaw, workaholic Josh van der Flier, rejuvenated James Ryan, and notably super hooker Dan Sheehan are not easy to replace, and there is a step down from Furlong, Henshaw, and Sheehan in particular.
But understudies exist. Shifts can be made.
Sexton’s heir is not apparent. The atheling is not yet groomed.
The irony is Ireland’s rise is built on the ideas of academy, steeped system, sure doctrine, and the ready replacement of parts.
Yet the Tom Brady of rugby is felled for a while and may miss the match versus France this year. It gets harder every time, to come back.
Jonathan Sexton (Photo By Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
I began to think of which player, playing well, for each other top team is the most difficult for their side to replace.
New Zealand
Jordie Barrett offers you several positions, a massive and accurate boot, and the kind of repetitive “luck” which is not chance. The pack is a different beast when Brodie Retallick is gone or working his way back (see 2019 semifinal).
Aaron Smith still has the best pass from the base. But it feels like Ardie Savea is the one the All Blacks can least afford to lose: his mongrel, his mana, his maniacal work rate and absolute never-say-die or even never-say-no attitude make him indispensable.
Australia
The Wallabies are a completely different team without Samu Kerevi, the midfield wrecking ball with good hands and eyes. Yes, fiery Quade Cooper is a big step up from icy Bernard Foley; Michael Hooper is still miles ahead of Fraser McReight; and Nic White is the only Aussie scrumhalf who has it all.
But Kerevi moves the whole game several metres to the good side.
He is a constant menace on both sides of the ball and cannot be knocked back over the gainline. He falls for good metres. He is a colossus.
Samu Kerevi of the Wallabies (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
South Africa
The coaching staff of the Springboks have built redundancies in nearly every position except for number four: Eben Etzebeth is as close as it gets to indispensable in this team, which probably is less dependent on any one player than the rest of the sides.
The props are three deep, hooker is a double-headed monster, there are loose forwards and wings aplenty, Damian Willemse and Willie le Roux can fill in all over the park, and from being a weakness, the No. 9 shirt is now a strength with Jaden Hendrickse, Faf de Klerk, and Cobus Reinach a triad of skill and attitude.
But take Etzebeth out of this pack and it is just not quite as fearsome. Franco Mostert, Marvin Orie, Salmaan Moerat and Pieter-Steph du Toit work their socks off but Etzebeth changes the flow of games.
France
Greg Alldritt has a hand in almost every facet of the French renaissance, and Gael Fickou can create a try for himself or his mates out of nothing, but Antoine Dupont is the rock the team is built on and around with his big boot from the base, dangerous support play, and coxswain-like rhythm set.
A halfback’s life is fraught with peril and can be game-planned for, but Dupont has survived being the focal point of every opponent and seems unflappable.
If Dupont and Sexton were to go down, the ‘tough’ side of the draw would instantly become substantially weaker.
Wales
No matter how poor the Welsh are, and Warren Gatland may find a way for a 10-Lion 1,000 cap team to remember how to win, they have oodles of hard loosies who tackle their bums off. They have big wings, clever halves, and a cadre of big hard-working locks.
But they have one key man.
Dan Biggar is a tough son of a gun. He will tell you about it, too.
But without him, I do not know how far down Wales would have fallen in recent years.
His goal percentage seems to rise with the importance of kicks. He chases like a wing. He sees the game like a future coach.
He is the Welsh Sexton.
Dan Biggar (Photo By Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
Scotland
Scotland sits in a set piece pool with big boys Ireland and South Africa. They cannot equal those teams this year in the fixed facets.
At best, they can hold on and pray at scrum and maul.
So, it will need to be magic at the ten.
Finn Russell looked better each time he was not in the team.
He is the third flyhalf from the Six Nations who is the most crucial for his team.
Argentina
Pablo Matera is the heart and soul of the loose forward trio. Emiliano Boffelli is worth 6 to 9 points extra. In form, Guido Petti can take down a lineout on his own.
But Julian Montoya is the man the Pumas cannot lose.
He does all of his core duties with aplomb, but more than that, he has shown the kind of leadership this often loose team needs.
(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images
England
The most difficult team for me. I am not sure anyone in the current squad is that vital to the cause, by himself, but that may be due to the team losing its identity.
Freddie Steward defuses bombs. Maro Itoje is the key big defensive player in the pack. Owen Farrell is the Biggar of England, but bigger.
Marcus Smith seems destined to be replaced by Farrell and George Ford.
It is not clear who is England’s rock. It may be Courtney Lawes, who had a horrific recovery from concussion.
He was the best forward in the finals loss in 2019, which is a big benchmark, when a pack is bested.
None of these teams can afford to lose these players, but who do you think should be listed?
Muglair
Roar Rookie
There you go mz, just saw one in Nick's article this week. Cooper put Samu into space and he broke a few tackles, drew the full back and threw a well timed and accurate long pass to Kellaway who scored.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
I'm with you there Rusty. I am not a QC fanboy and have always considered he has shortcomings in his game, but he is head and shoulders above any other options the Wallabies have and managing him will be crucial. I cant see him getting through the RWC unscathed, but he will be critical in the early games to help momentum and stamp their authority on crucial games. Without him I think the Wallabies will struggle to gain ascendancy and impose their game. As good as some of the Wallaby players are like Hooper, Kerevi, White, Foketi, and having players like Marky Mark, Frost, wings etc. in form and firing wirh QC they can build confidence and establish their game in the early games. Will be a lot harder without him. If QC falls to injury once the Wallabies have their tails up.. that will be ok as a confident Wallabies side is highly competitive with or without Cooper on the field. There biggest problem for me at the moment is they don't seem settled or quite know what they arr doing.
Muglair
Roar Rookie
I suspect the solution for England is that simple. I will send them an invoice.
Joshua Makepeace
Roar Rookie
For me the English selection would have to be Itoje. He has been there for a whole and offers so much to the English team.
Rugbytrylover
Roar Rookie
A lot of people here think Quade Cooper is the messiah. He has to come back from a difficult injury and then gain match fitness…plus still not sure he is up for the back end of the RWC against the big guns if we get that far. He is always good for a shocker and throwing the odd intercept. Love Quade… just don’t believe he is our messiah. Hope the young 10’s play well during Super Rugby to provide viable back ups or even nail a starting spot. Still think Australia will go well and is under the radar.
Tim J
Roar Rookie
Cheers Passit, I enjoy reading your posts and thoughts also. I also look forward to engaging with you through out the season… :thumbup:
Tim J
Roar Rookie
Thank you Harry, and I will try and play my part for the up coming season… :thumbup:
Harry Jones
Expert
Yes, I think Freddie is written in first not only because he’s 15!
Harry Jones
Expert
I’m thinking Borthwick will slot Owen back in at 10. Not a 12 in today’s game
Digby
Roar Guru
Ha! That’s a fair observation
Muglair
Roar Rookie
mz, better rather than far better I think. His short passing on both sides, close to the line or in contact is pretty good. Distribution to 13 is non-existent which plays to Quade's wide range of pass options, allowing him to put Ikiteau in for two tries in his first game in 2021, putting an end to call to drop Len because of his low run metres. His short passing after a long break, and one on one, is woeful and probably cannot be fixed. Always too early, too late or gets tackled with the ball. He thinks too much on it and I doubt if he can be coached on that. My ten bucks says his early coaches just told everyone to give it to Samu, and told Samu to hang on to it and run around or over anyone in his way. His defence at 12 is fine I think, he did seem to struggle with the positional demands at 13. Is that the try which looked like a set move and had Samu on a wrap around or just running across field and passing with the momentum? A QC 10 Samu 12 combination allows the Wallabies to play a very complex game and I would be looking to forward to watching them. I am not sure Foley can get the best out of the wider backs with Samu at 12. QC however can easily use Samu as a decoy or exploit the outside backs as a threat to give Samu more space. If I could have one improvement it would be the timing of the pass after a long break. Money in the bank.
Muglair
Roar Rookie
I think we will see some new faces step up out of SR and demand selection.
Muglair
Roar Rookie
Ireland are a tremendous team with Sexton, but I think more than the ten points adrift without him. The difference was most notable in the 1st test against NZ, when the game turned after his knock to the head that was followed by his next play leading to NZ try. I am dubious about him getting to the RWC and playing through it. Sport is cruel, Ireland have been the stand out team this RWC cycle but without a golden run for Sexton they wont make the SF. Eddie's Randwick roots may have swayed him to invest in Smith early in the cycle. Presumably he would have gone back to Farrell for the 6N, or Ford if available. Instead Borthwick may look like a genius and your post 6N list might include Farrell for England.
Englishbob
Guest
Interesting read as ever HJ, appreciated. An interesting juxtaposition that I'm some cases it's the teams best player and others it's one person there simply isn't cover for, as I recall the wallabies in 1999 went to the RWC with one specialist prop for one of the heads (apologies my mind fails me for a name). I love watching Etzebeth stalking around the field, the guy could start a fight in an empty house but seems like a sweetheart in interviews. Englands best player is Itoje, but we've slowly gained a bit of depth in the engine room with ribbans, chessum, hill, and ofc Lawes. Our most irreplaceable player is probably Freddie, our currently only world 15 candidate and just a master of his position.
Passit2me
Roar Rookie
You to Tim, have a great 2023, always enjoy reading your comments.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Mo I agree but feel that coaches today hang on a bit long at times. From an ABs perspective they really did try Christie last year but he never quite stepped up. Locks are a bit rare in the ground with experience at the moment but we have some good youngsters like Holland and McWhannell comming up.... Just mabe not this year.... ABs have some very good prospects coming thru in many areas but I think its a year to early for this WC
Harry Jones
Expert
Sounds fair
JD Kiwi
Roar Rookie
I'm actually worried that it would spoil the series for me. A friend of mine says that they're his favourite books and the TV Uhtred is way too small and pretty!
Julius
Roar Rookie
no shame in that, I just suggest that the article could be named "Rugby World Cup: Each TOP TEN Test team's most irreplaceable player".
Harry Jones
Expert
I’m just not qualified to opine re Chile et al.