Will Australia's Ashton Agar call come back to bite them on Sydney flat track?

Australia haven’t put too many feet wrong this Test summer, but with the SCG looming as the quintessential flat track after two lifeless days, their decision to play only four frontline bowlers, with one of them an all-rounder, looms as being one of them.

I was certainly surprised on Wednesday morning when the Australian team was revealed: it spoke of a side concerned more with their batting order following Cameron Green’s MCG injury than in preserving a five-man bowling attack.

They needn’t have been worried – neither the pitch, nor the now utterly beleaguered Proteas bowling attack (save for the again splendid Anrich Nortje) could so much as make a dent in the Aussies’ red-hot middle order. As it was at the MCG and for much of the summer, one of the openers – this time Usman Khawaja – piled on runs, while Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith seldom looked troubled, before Travis Head arrived later on to up the scoring rate and add further misery for the tourists.

After two days, Australia, barring an England in Adelaide 2006-type capitulation, cannot lose this Test. But a draw against this South African team would be a missed opportunity, and with rain now looming large across the next two days, need every wicket-taking option they get.

Which is where Agar’s selection makes little sense.

Had he been picked as a fifth bowling option in place of Cameron Green, there to support the four main bowlers while also chipping in with the bat at number seven, there would be no qualms over his place in the team.

But his selection as a bona fide frontline bowler, with no all-rounder selected (unless we’re being really, really generous to Matt Renshaw’s off-breaks) would indicate that the Western Australian is the country’s second-best spinner behind Nathan Lyon – which is absurd.

Why not take the opportunity to give Mitchell Swepson a chance at a first Test on home soil, and see if he has it in him to be Lyon’s long-term Test replacement when the GOAT finally retires? Or blood the best spinner of the Sheffield Shield season, Victorian Todd Murphy? Or even get to the bottom of whether Adam Zampa, a long-term white-ball specialist who only recently dipped his toe back into red-ball cricket, has what it takes to be a Test cricketer?

All these options would have been braver than sticking with the known quantity of Agar; come Day 5 here, the Australian selectors may well have cause to regret being so conservative.

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No doubt the Aussies are keen to experiment ahead of the upcoming Test tour to India, where Agar, especially considering Green is now in doubt to be fit for the start of the series, is expected to play a crucial role.

But picking Agar as a genuine second spinner, as they have done at the SCG, against the best players of spin bowling in world cricket, would be utter madness. He is simply not a wicket-taking bowler.

Agar is an ultra-handy package in limited overs cricket: a handy bat who bowls canny, tight spin based on well-disguised changes of pace and length, he was harshly treated to play just a cameo role in the last two T20 World Cups, and should be front of mind for the ODI World Cup to be played in India later this year.

The facts are, though, that he averages 41.84 in first-class cricket; 45.55 in Tests; and 48.72 in ODIs. At the highest level, he would make an ultra-handy third spinner if your team structure can swing it – but expecting him to contribute 25 per cent of the wickets Australia needs to win this Test is wishful thinking.

Travis Head, Ashton Agar and Nathan Lyon of Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Even thinking ahead to India doesn’t inspire confidence. Yes, left-arm spinners have had success on subcontinental pitches – Ravindra Jadeja, for one – but you’ve still got to be, you know, good.

From an Australian perspective, Jon Holland, a left-armer with a far better first-class bowling record than Agar, averages 63.77 with the ball from four Tests in Sri Lanka and the UAE.

Steve O’Keefe – whose first-class average of under 25 is orders of magnitude better than Agar’s – did take 12 wickets in a Test against India in Pune, which turned so sharply that Ravichandran Ashwin and Jadeja were missing the bat by metres yet the more mild spin of the New South Welshman invariably found the edge of the bat.

O’Keefe’s other three Tests in that series are more a measure of the challenges he faced: seven wickets at 53.14. If the Aussies are expecting Agar to have an impact in India, they should take into account that a true, full-time spinner, with a far better red-ball record, had to fight and scrap for every wicket outside the pitch that couldn’t have suited him more perfectly (and, incidentally, one India would be mad to offer up again this time around).

In the here and now, the disdain with which the Aussie batters treated Keshav Maharaj should tell you everything you need to know about whether this SCG pitch is conducive to left-arm spin.

The turn and bounce off-spinner Simon Harmer got would have undoubtedly delighted Lyon, who may well be capable of bowling Australia to victory on his own; but if Agar can be safely negotiated, as seems likely, South Africa’s chances of clinging on improve substantially.

If the Proteas can’t score runs on this pitch, the flattest of the summer, then they’re even worse than we all thought. With no Mitchell Starc, no Cameron Green and no Scott Boland, all of whom have taken plenty of wickets this summer, the Aussie bowling attack is at its weakest, too.

It’s a chance for Dean Elgar to turn his terrible form around; survive Pat Cummins and a likely-rusty Josh Hazlewood with the new ball, and Agar looms as significantly easier to face than Boland. It’s a chance for Temba Bavuma to finally make good on his seven-year quest for a second Test ton; for Marco Jansen to prove he’s an international number seven; for Khaya Zondo and Sarel Erwee and Heinrich Klaasen to cement themselves in the team moving forward.

None of this is Agar’s fault – he has plenty of strengths, many of which would make him a fine contributor at Test level. Had it been needed, his batting would have made him one of the best number eights in the world. Had he been selected as part of a five-man bowling group, he’d be more than capable of tying down an end, building pressure and allowing Cummins to rotate his quicks or give an extended spell to Lyon depending on conditions and the batters in.

Agar’s greatest strength as a cricketer is his versatility and flexibility. But specifically selecting him as a main bowler is just as bizarre as it would have been had they picked him as a specialist batter.

It’s giving a perfect supporting cast member a main role. It’s asking too much of him.

Australia may win this Test anyway – but the selection of Agar over more highly credentialled spin-bowling options hasn’t given them the best chance to do so; and as far as preparation for India goes, they surely can’t expect him to defy a career of middling first-class results and head over as a frontline spin partner to Lyon.