On Friday, 13 January, Damian Lillard dropped 50 points in a loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
His scoring effort was met with widespread public apathy outside of Blazer fandom. The most recent victim of a new wave of scoring desensitisation, it seems that every other night 40-plus points are regularly achieved, while the 50-point mark evidently doesn’t illicit the same social media hysteria it once did.
The league’s offensive rating currently sits at 113.9, a record for the statistic since it started being tracked in the 1974-75 season. There are myriad reasons for this, but what lies behind this season’s scoring explosion, and has the NBA crossed a bridge of no return?
During the offseason the NBA instilled a ‘transition take foul’ penalty. Radically changing the flow of the game in comparison to past seasons, this change in officiating has also led to a crackdown on offensive players seeking contact for fouls, further reducing the number of stoppages in a game.
The speed of the gameplay feels faster and more fluid due to fewer breaks in the action – despite the league pace rating sitting at 99.4, which is lower than it was in the 2018-20 seasons. Defences have less time to get ready to set up in the half-court and tire more quickly overall. This has led to a league-wide average offensive rating of 110.6 against set defences in the half-court. This is a monumental jump when compared to ten years ago – the 2012-13 season average offensive rating was 105.8!
(Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
From a coaching standpoint, offensive sets are more advanced than ever. The league has adopted the style of play that the Warriors pioneered throughout the 2010s. The Denver Nuggets have also impacted the nature of league offence with the initiation of sets usually coming from their big man Nikola Jokic at the top of the key or elbow.
These two distinct identities on offence have forced teams to adapt. The Sacramento Kings are a perfect example of this. They use Domantas Sabonis in a role akin to Jokic’s but their shooters mimic Golden State’s with their constant movement and off-ball screen manoeuvrability.
The past decade’s three-point revolution is complete. Turn on any game and there is perfect spacing among all the teams. A danger this causes defensively for any team lies in the threat of second-chance opportunities through rebounding.
Take the Utah Jazz, coached by Will Hardy. On paper the roster would seem to be in the bottom half of the league, yet they are continuously in close games – a league-high 32 games have come down to clutch end-of-game scenarios – and average the eighth most rebounds per game.
By spreading out the floor with five ball-handling shooters, Hardy has made this a competitive team despite facing a talent deficit on most nights. His tactics are a signifier of the new age of the league and how the DNA of the NBA resides in the three-point shot and the spacing it provides.
‘Bad’ teams can use Hardy’s strategising as an equaliser to gain a level playing field as it allows these teams to compete with good teams on any given night if they get hot. However, there must be a clear distinction for good teams being good by virtue of creating easy, consistent looks.
This season’s record-breaking offensive numbers are an indicator that the skill level of the league has reached a historical peak. The league’s effective field goal percentage is at 0.541 per cent, an all-time high. An open three-point shot has a league average of 37 per cent, leading to a 111 offensive rating in the half-court.
Player skill sets have blended as there are more hybrid players than ever before. The rigidity we once saw in positions and roles is gone. This growth in overall skill is to be expected through time across all sports, as more money is committed to more research being conducted to improve athlete efficiency.
Yet the league has been aiming to tailor their product in this fashion since the 2000s, when league pace averaged 91.36 through the decade. Supporting offence has been the name of the game for those in charge, with a free-flowing state being the goal.
The combination of all these factors has ushered a record year. Offences traditionally become more efficient as a season progresses. This can be because of a mixture of team chemistry as well as offensive scouting helping teams learn opponent defensive tendencies. But that leads to the question of just how far this season’s offensive rating will rise. Can there ever be a significant reduction in the numbers we see today?
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Yeah, if David Stern was still with us and in charge, I’d agree with your last statement, but Adam Silver is in love with the current game. I don’t see it ever changing under his leadership. The one thing that we can be grateful for is that the league is largely following the Warriors style motion offence with huge helpings of the Triangle, rather than the Harden era Rockets iso heavy offence. Pretty much everyone now sees the benefits of what Steve Kerr implemented at the Dubs. Even simple but brutally effective sets like their Post Split action is being copied.
josh
Roar Rookie
The current format of the NBA All Star game really sums up the season. No one plays "hard" for the three quarters. Then come the last quarter (i.e. the playoff races and playoffs) they start playing proper basketball (i.e. defense). So kinda need to take what happens in the regular season with a grain of salt.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
I actually think the NBA needs a bit of a reset. Firstly, eliminate the corner three, or more to the point, eliminate the break. Move the arc out to 25ft, that takes the corner 3 out of the equation. Give defences a chance, get rid of defensive three seconds and give perimeter defenders sone latitude on hand checking. Finally, really crackdown on ball handling & travels. Far too much leniency in this area. Sport is always more interesting when it’s an even contest between defence & offence.
Daniel
Guest
I don’t think a reversal or something major can happen, especially because the league loves points, but I do think we see a few changes that change the current 3PT contest happening these days. A 3 is obviously worth 150% of a typical basket and Rockets/Warriors showed why it’s worth the risk. While the values can’t change, I do think we see changes on defense to allow players to actually defend the 3. A few years ago, players were getting an extra FT after hitting a 3 or getting 3 for missing a deep ball due to the Reggie Miller leg kick. The league did away with this but I think they take it a step further. They act like a major shift has occurred but you can still barely breathe on a shooter without getting a whistle. I predict in the next 5-6 years we will see rules come-in that allow defenders to hit the shooter if it’s after release. I think “hand is part of the ball” will really come into play on the 3 and you will see them played closer with much fewer calls upon contact. I also think they could adopt 5fouls and you’re out to reward teams for attacking the basket rather than shoot the long ball. But for the big picture? It’s not going away. I was looking back at my old Kings (Webber, Peja, J-Will/Bibby, Vlade, etc) and the Mavs/Suns who all helped usher the first step of fast, Euro style ball. I remember my dad saying “I know Dirk can shoot but he’s still shooting too many 3’s for a guy that size.” The most 3’s Dirk ever averaged in a season is back in 02-03. He played 80 games shooting 390 3’s. This breaks down to 4.875. Keep in mind this is his high per game in any season he’s ever played. Stack that up against today and he’s barely above Al Horford who averages 4.7X. It also would have him at 87th in terms of attempts per game. Porzingis averages 5.5 and Brook Lopez averages 5.0. We have EIGHT players currently averaging 9.0 or higher 3point attempts per game. It’s insane. I’m not against the 3ball, but when has it gone too far? I keep reading “does the nba have a blowout problem?” Then I see data showing yes, or someone else using data to say no. Okay. Take out statistics and tell me from an eye test the blowouts are the same as before. Bull. Last years playoffs it felt like GSW beat Mem by 35, then lost to them by 41, then won by 28. Same for the Sixers/Raptors and Celtics/Heat. Something has to be done.
Cooper
Guest
Great read, I’m curious to see how this will change regardless of rules over the next few years! Will we see defensive tactics effectively catch up or are we doomed for 120+ pt scoring nights from both teams in the near future?
James Beale
Roar Guru
Yeah you make a great points Astro. The skill sets they have match the game today rather than those skills required 10+ years ago, 100%. The younger generation mimicking the 2010s style of play undoubtedly has increased their ability to play that style of ball, so current and future draft classes are already coming into the league with the skillset required to survive in the league. I hope at some point there is a defensive shift that the league office tries to promote in the product and people have been asking for more defensive help in the rule changes but we're yet to see a significant change. A question I can't figure out right now is can there ever be a reversal or even a better balancing, or has the 3 point shot irrevocably changed the league?
James Beale
Roar Guru
Thanks for the kind words Mackenzie, I really appreciate it! I think the current iteration of the game is the best for showcasing it star talent and bringing in or entertaining a newer audience. For those who have watched the game change over the years I am sure that this style of basketball could be frustrating when compared to past decades but that is more of a subjective stylistic opinion. We see huge offensive numbers and think that defence is diminished and to an extent it is, but there are still incredible players that are generational defenders, look at what Jaren Jackson Jr. is doing this year for the Grizzlies in the minutes he's out there! He's one of many incredible defenders in the league. Come playoff time, defence really ratchets up a couple levels, so for those fans who might not like the current defensive identity of the league I'd say that they can really enjoy those playoff games and watch the defence that they want to see. My overall answer is that I think that the league has a couple changes to make to further help defences and help level the playing field for audiences to enjoy defence more. Where do you stand on this?
astro
Roar Rookie
Great article. Thanks. For me, I think its less the player 'skill' which is boosting scoring, but just players adapting and growing up in the pace and space era, and being more well-versed in a more offensive style of play. There are plenty of 'skills' today's players are worse at, than those of the past. Post play and low-post defence, mid-range shooting, entry passing etc for example. I mainly think its that we're now about 10 years on from Harden's Rockets and Curry's 3pt revolution, both of which had an enormous impact on how the game is played. The PF position became the 'stretch 4', number of 3s increased year-on-year, and most importantly, the younger generation started learning new skills - see young 7fters who are now more comfortable shooting than playing back to the basket. Teams have drafted players to suit this style and have been building teams in this way, for some years now. As an example, if you glance over the top 5 draft picks of the last 5 years, its dominated by guards/wings, whereas in the past, teams would always take the talented 'big man' above the small shooting guard. I just think its that we're now seeing most teams succeed at playing this 'style' of basketball. But, it will change. I think the NBA will bring back some rules to favour the defence, and that will slow down the scoring boom, I think...
Mackenzie Book
Roar Rookie
You make some great points James. The offensive flourishment of many teams is very impressive. There are some opinions that the current nature of the game is offputing to some fans with how defence is being diminished. Do you think the current iteration of the game is the best product for NBA basketball?