As a Dragons supporter, I like to take a very close look each year at the contenders for that most unwelcome “trophy” of them all – the wooden spoon.
Not that I want St George Illawarra to ever end up with the loathsome ligneous ladle, it’s just that under the consecutive coaching reigns of Steve Price, Paul McGregor and Anthony Griffin over the last 11 seasons, it has been far more likely that the Red V would end up with the dreaded booby prize rather than the Provan-Summons Trophy.
The Dragons have been the punters’ favourites for the spoon on more than one occasion in this time, and came close enough to smell the varnish in both 2013 and 2019, only to be saved at the 11th hour by Parramatta and the Gold Coast respectively.
So, what are the Dragons chance of running last in 2023, and if it’s not going to be them, who else looks the most likely? Let’s look at the contenders to finish bottom of the table this year, beginning with last year’s cellar dwellers.
Wests Tigers
Surprisingly, Wests have only picked up one spoon in the NRL era, but it was last year so they certainly know what’s required.
This year they’ve both beefed up their coaching roster and recruited well, and you’d have to think that the addition of the likes of quality performers in Api Koroisau, John Bateman, David Klemmer and Isaiah Papali’I, together with the offloading of some passengers from last year’s squad, will see them climb off the bottom of the ladder in 2023. Surely they couldn’t pick up back-to-back spoons, could they?
John Bateman is back in the NRL (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
New Zealand Warriors
The Warriors have looked pretty ordinary for the last three years, winning just 32 per cent of their games in that time, but perhaps they deserve some consideration in the light of their COVID disruption. Last year, they won just six games, conceding an average of nearly 30 points per game, their worst result since 2004, and their 2023 recruitment looks like a Paddy’s Markets bargain shopping list.
They’ve so far avoided picking up the spoon since they debuted in 1995, but this could very well be their best opportunity yet.
Newcastle Knights
The Knights crept into the finals in both 2020 and 2021, but fell seven positions on the ladder last year to finish third-last. Kalyn Ponga holds the key to the team’s success as usual, but his history of missing games through injury must be a worry for under siege coach Adam O’Brien. The Knights have the most spoons in the NRL era with four, and there’s absolutely no reason why they can’t add to that tally in 2023.
Gold Coast Titans
After finishing a respectable eighth and ninth on the ladder in 2021 and 2020 respectively, the Titans looked like they were well and truly headed for the spoon last year before redeeming themselves with three wins from their last four games. Their spine will be improved with the addition of both Kieran Foran and Sam Verrills in 2023, and they have enough quality in the forwards to once again finish in the better half of the bottom eight.
So, how about the rest of the teams who finished in the bottom eight in 2022?
Canterbury Bulldogs
The Bulldogs just missed out on the 2020 spoon on for-and-against, finished last in a canter in 2021, and were well in contention again last year before winning three of their last seven games under stand-in coach Michael Potter and finishing 12th.
The change in the team’s outlook since the departure of Trent Barrett has been refreshing, and no team has recruited better than them in the off-season. They’ll get away to a slow start under new coach Cameron Ciraldo, but finish strongly and well out of contention for the spoon.
Manly Sea Eagles
Fun fact: Manly have not once finished with the wooden spoon since entering the competition in 1947. Pretty impressive, but never say never. They finished 13th last year, losing their last seven games following the rainbow jersey embarrassment, and no coach will be under more pressure than Anthony Seibold, who knows what riding a team all the way to the bottom looks like.
Their off-season recruitment has been virtually non-existent, with losses outweighing the gains, and if talisman Tom Trbojevic doesn’t make it back onto the paddock in some sort of form, then it could be a bleak year ahead. Manly could pick up their first spoon this year!
St George Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons seem to have taken up permanent residence in the bottom eight in recent times, with last year’s 10th place being their best finish since 2018.
Things haven’t gone well in the off-season either, with injuries and stand downs likely to keep two of their young spine players in Talatau Amone and Cody Ramsey out for some time, and perhaps permanently, some embarrassing glitches at club management level, while their off-season recruitment looks to be their worst effort for some time, and that’s saying something.
A lot rests on Ben Hunt’s shoulders, but with his 33rd birthday just around the corner, it may be too much to ask. Saints are a real chance to finish last this year.
Can the halfback save St George from the spoon? (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
Brisbane Broncos
The Broncos fell in a heap towards the end of last season, losing five of their last six games to just miss the finals, and that comes on the back of a 14th-placed finish in 2021, and their first wooden spoon in 2020.
Kevin Walters is a good bloke by all reports, but some of his squad aren’t yet convinced that he can coach. You get the sense that all is not well at Red Hill, and if the Broncos don’t get off to a good start, the toys may be thrown out of the cot. The Broncos are definitely an outside chance to pick up another wooden spoon in 2023.
So, what about the new kid on the block?
The Dolphins
There have only been four clubs join the competition in the NRL era, and happily none of them ended up with the wooden spoon in their first season. Melbourne finished in third place in 1998, St George Illawarra went as far as the Grand Final in 1999 after finishing sixth on the ladder, the Wests Tigers finished 10th in 2000, while the Gold Coast Titans finished 12th in their first hit-out in 2007.
So, history is on the side of the Dolphins, plus they have Wayne Bennett pulling their strings, and enough experienced players to avoid the bottom of the pond.
Could any of last year’s finalists fall off the cliff?
Surely that would never happen, right? But you’d be surprised, as it’s occurred nine times in the NRL era, or 36 per cent of the time for those of you without a calculator.
Cronulla went from the semi-finals in 2013 to last in 2014, Parramatta’s most recent spoon in 2018 came after a semi-final appearance in 2017, Penrith did it in 2001, the Roosters went from fourth in 2008 to the bottom of the table in 2009, the Titans were just one game away from a Grand Final appearance in 2010 then finished last the following year, while Canterbury’s wooden spoons in both 2002 and 2008 came on the back of semi-final appearances the year before.
Even the mighty Storm managed last place in 2010 after finishing fourth the season before, but then again, they were playing for no points in 2010 due to their salary cap breach.
So, it does happen, and if I had to pick just one 2022 finalist to fall all the way to the bottom in 2023, it would be Canberra. They’ve lost some experienced performers this year, and will be relying heavily on some of their young guns to lead the way. If the Raiders do fall off a cliff and get the spoon this year it won’t be a first for coach Ricky Stuart, as he led Parramatta to just five wins from 21 starts in 2013 to see them pick up their 13th piece of timberware.
And the loser is?
So, there we are, nine possibilities to pick up the 2023 wooden spoon, but there can only be one loser, and my top five contenders, in descending order, are:
1. NZ Warriors
2. Newcastle Knights
3. The Dolphins
4. Manly Sea Eagles
5. St George Illawarra Dragons
jammel
Roar Rookie
Yeah might be the Dragons I reckon. Raiders to win the whole thing!! :)
jammel
Roar Rookie
From my perspective, I don't see Knights/Manly/Tigers coming last. I reckon it will be Dolphins or St George Dragons or NZ Warriors really. Probably St George tbh
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Not anti-Warriors at all Lizard. I'm actually quite fond of them. But one team has to come bottom of the ladder. Last year it was my Tigers. So I feel for you supporting a club that is struggling to pull together a roster that can match it with the top teams. Walker was, as you point out, terrific last year - as a number 14. He might even be the best 14 in the game atm. But unlikely to save their season from the bench. Niukore, Martin and Montoya are all good players. Likewise CNK and DWZ. But none of them are game breakers - The kind of player that SJ used to be but hasn't been for quite a few seasons now. Last season they conceded the most points and scored the third least. Looking at what has changed in their squad, it's hard to see exactly how that will improve. Walsh contributed the second most try assists and the most line breaks and line break assists. That's a lot of attack lost. CNK is a terrific defender and kick returner - but he's not the same scoring threat. Martin is a slight upgrade on CHT, which will offset that loss of strike a little, but not close to completely. Niukore's numbers are pretty much a straight swap for Aitken. So there's not much evidence to suggest a major change in fortunes from that quarter. Montoya and DWZ were there last year and played to their ability - but the team still came second last. So again, not a strong reason to expect a significantly better outcome this season. The Warriors have only 5 players who averaged more than 100 metres per game last year - the lowest of any team for this season. That is a problem. Especially given that neither Johnson or Martin are big kickers. Webster might be a coaching genius. But he also might not. Not a lot to go on really, so you'd have to factor that in as a neutral when trying to objectively assess their prospects. So all up, on the evidence available, there are reasonable grounds to think the Warriors could struggle this year.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Will do. Cheers. :thumbup:
Redcap
Roar Guru
Thanks - it's not very phone friendly so feel free to just respond here if it's more convenient. Here you go: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j4cr96kokOd8rq5n-kfm-gXEzD3c7gx6/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114698333451261014237&rtpof=true&sd=true
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Hahaha. Not sure about that. As folks like to remind me, stats don't tell the whole story. Yes, I'm a Tigers supporter - for my past sins I guess... I'd be happy to do your jersey survey.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Thanks Birdy.
Birdy
Roar Rookie
Will do in a few days David.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Don't be amazed , Lizard. This is just an opinion site. Many think that the Warriors roster is ordinary . I think they had a better side last year and being based in camp here was probably even better for their teamwork and performance. But that is just my opinion. And I also tipped the Cowboys for the spoon last year ! So what do I know ?
Tony
Roar Guru
You may very well be right, but they'll certainly be in the mix for a bottom of the table finish, along with five or six other clubs who can also point to some handy players.
The Lizard
Roar Rookie
I'm forever amazed by the anti Warriors posts on here. With the "wooden spoon" comments.. A history visit. Daniel Anderson was a rookie coach - took the Warriors to finals (Grand Final) Ivan Cleary was a rookie coach - took Warriors to finals (Grand Final). Andrew Webster is a rookie coach - wait and see. People here, apparently, don't rate Dylan Walker (yet.. funnily enough.. all commentators did when he was with Manly (LAST YEAR) no one seems to rate Niukore (yet all did last year) same with CNK.. 2 yrs ago rated as one of the best ever... DWZ .. one of the best return runners in NRL .. Te Maire Martin - another one that was raved about by "analysts last year.. Marcelo Montoya ... I could go on.. but ... this isn't a mug team .. give them some credit .. I would forget the last 2.5 yrs .. no-one - not The Storm - Roosters- EELs Panthers.. would've survived if they had to move to Auckland for 2.5 yrs.. with NO reserve grade team etc..
The Lizard
Roar Rookie
I'm forever amazed by the anti Warriors posts on here. With the "wooden spoon" comments.. A history visit. Daniel Anderson was a rookie coach - took the Warriors to finals (Grand Final) Ivan Cleary was a rookie coach - took Warriors to finals (Grand Final). Andrew Webster is a rookie coach - wait and see. People here, apparently, don't rate Dylan Walker (yet.. funnily enough.. all commentators did when he was with Manly (LAST YEAR) no one seems to rate Niukore (yet all did last year) same with CNK.. 2 yrs ago rated as one of the best ever... DWZ .. one of the best return runners in NRL .. Te Maire Martin - another one that was raved about by "analysts last year.. Marcelo Montoya ... I could go on.. but ... this isn't a mug team .. give them some credit .. I would forget the last 2.5 yrs .. no-one - not The Storm - Roosters- EELs Panthers.. would've survived if they had to move to Auckland for 2.5 yrs.. with NO reserve grade team etc..
Hondo
Roar Rookie
Maybe but history isn't in their favour this year.
Hondo
Roar Rookie
Yes and No, in 2009 Parramatta made the grand final only to lose to the Storm. The following year they finished 12th. They lost a number of important players before the start of the 2010 season and didn't replace any of them. The same scenario has been repeated with the loss of players like Mahoney, Papali and Niokure, who were integral to their success last year without any real comparable replacements. I hope i am wrong about them running last this year but i definitely can't seem them making the eight this year as up until a late run last year they looked in danger of not making the eight and just scraped into the four. With the loss of the above players and the disappointment of failing last year after giving it all they had it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they fell by the wayside this year even down to finishing last.
Redcap
Roar Guru
You've destroyed me there, SM. I've only just adjusted to the fact that it's 2023 and, yes, I have started to slowly realise that the Tigers' pack is shaping up quite nicely. The Dragons are awful. Are you a Tigers supporter? If so, would you like to take my survey about 2023 NRL jerseys?
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Gee DT, not sure where you get the idea that Dragons' forward pack is better than 2023 Tigers? Dragons top three forwards average run metres: 106, 105 and 84 '23 Tigers top three forwards average run metres: 146, 121 and 105. Dragons top three forwards total Tackle Breaks: 71 (Bird - a few games in the backs), 42, 29 '23 Tigers top three forwards total Tackle Breaks: 89, 41, 31 Dragons top three forwards total offloads: 21, 18, 15 '23 Tigers top three forwards total offloads: 38, 35, 30 '23 Dragons top three forwards tackle efficiency: 92, 91, 88 '23 Tigers top three forwards tackle efficiency: 96, 94, 91 Dragons forwards are a bit better than Warriors in these stats. So Warriors still spoon favourites for mine : ) Dragons also outstrip Dogs in RM and TBs, but lag behind them in the other stats. Last season they scored more tries than the Dogs, but also conceded more. This season the Dogs have added to their strike... while it's not clear that Dragons have. Dragons have also moved on three of their busiest defenders in the middle (McCulloch, Maguire and Sims) and been forced to play Sloane at FB despite concerns about his defence. So there's evidence that suggests Dragons could concede more points while not scoring any more - and thus slide down the ladder as others move up. I can't wait to see how the season plays out!
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
So Benji's ready for retirement before he's even coached a first grade game? And Ice is on his last legs at 24? Api the geriatric did nothing to contribute to Panthers dominance in '22? Tigers, while coming off the club's worst season ever, and still lacking a couple of strike backs, have a good balance of youth and experience. They won't get anywhere near the spoon this season. Dragons, Titans and dolphins will round out the bottom four. Unless KP or Burton suffer a long term injury - in which case Knights would a strong contender for the spoon, and Dogs would be a smokey of the bottom four.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
Basically the home Jersey is OK, I don't like the away strip and I think the alternate is Good, really think they should only use either base Blue or base Gold unless it's Anzac or Indigenous round :thumbup:
Tony
Roar Guru
Geez. That's a big call
Tony
Roar Guru
All very capable if winning that race to the bottom of the barrel Albo