The Sack Race: How the draw is shaping up for the coaches under pressure at the start of 2023

Ten games was enough last year. Perhaps it was the heady atmosphere of Magic Round, a few nights on the XXXX on Caxton Street or the creeping sense of finality that set in midway through the Bulldogs’ tame defeat to an also-rubbish Newcastle, but something finally prompted the higher-ups to let Trent Barrett go. Or let himself go. We’re still not really sure.

The trickle became a cascade soon afterwards, with Nathan Brown and Michael Maguire leaving the Warriors and Tigers respectively on the same day, just 21 days after Barrett. You wait months for a sacking and three come along at once.

While it’s hard to make much of a case for any of the three staying in their job long-term – though the Wests Tigers did a pretty good argument for it by losing 11 of the next 12 without Madge– there is an element of timing that made the departures look worse.

Maguire could have considered himself unlucky: he was sacked on the back of a loss to Souths, who made a Prelim, so no shame there, and after defeating the Barrettless Bulldogs.

They’d won three of their last seven, including beating two sides that would make the last four twice, and losing to two others. The other two defeats were an unfortunate one in Wollongong to the Dragons and away at a then-still Turbo-charged Manly. It wasn’t great, but hardly sacking form.

The Warriors were at least rubbish – they’d lost five on the spin – but before that, had been alright, with four of six before being wins. Isn’t that just how form works?

Trent’s Bulldogs were dire, and didn’t seem to be getting any better. That Mick Potter came in and immediately improved them probably says a lot about that move. But still: he fell on his sword, if you believe the reports.

Cast forward to 2023, and the sack race remains ever-interesting. The vicissitudes of the draw are, again, front and centre. It’s not so much who you play, but when you play them that will worry the coaches who are looking over their shoulders.

(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

It’s not worth going into the weeds too much on the secure guys, but there’s probably six that are under the pump before a ball has been kicked.

Hang overs from last year are Justin Holbrook at the Titans, Adam O’Brien at the Knights and Anthony Griffin at the Dragons, who might consider themselves lucky to have made it through the off-season.

You can add Kevin Walters at Brisbane, who has to prove himself after his side collapsed late and missed the Finals with huge expectations to make it into the eight this year. Fail and he’s probably out the door, too.

It’s hard to see the Tigers, Warriors or Bulldogs pulling the plug in year one for their main men, and Manly replaced Des Hasler in the off-season, so you’d think Anthony Seibold at least makes the end of the year.

So who should be worried? With Magic Round again slotted in as round ten, let’s look at who might be able to break the Barrett record in 2023.

O’Brien was hammered last year early after a draw that handed his side six sides that went on to make the Finals in the first nine rounds, but can be happier this year with just four such fixtures in 2023, including a soft start that includes the Warriors, Tigers and Dolphins first up.

The upside is that his men might build momentum before they enter the tough stuff – but conversely, if they don’t hit the ground running, they’ll up right up against it.

Last year, Griffin could make that argument. His men played six of the top eight in the first nine rounds and struggled, but the experience chastened them and they went on to record four out of five after that.

It wasn’t much of an improvement in their style of footy – and that is what will ultimately be the undoing of Hook as a coach – but it certainly kicked the can down the road for a little bit.

(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

They get a soft start in 2023 – two easy points against Bye first up – and then the Titans twice before round six. There’s also home games against the Dolphins and Bulldogs, meaning Griffin will only face last year’s best three times: the Anzac Day game with the Roosters, a home match against the Sharks and a trip to Canberra. It’s as good as they might have hoped for.

The Dragons often look best when the opponent is better than them, because their grindathon seems a little more sensible, but it gets best results against poorer sides who can’t match St George Illawarra for simple competency. Enough NRL teams will beat themselves seems to be the theory.

It’s not a method that will deliver incredible results over time with the cattle that the Dragons have, however, and you wonder how willing the higher-ups and fans are to sit through another 12-12 or worse year defined by Blake Lawrie taking one-out runs. I’d rate Griffin the least likely to be there in 2024, though perhaps not the first to go.

That honour might well go to Justin Holbrook, who starts the season right up against it. They got no favours last year – six top eight sides in their first nine, including four away – and get some respite in 2023, though that might not help.

As mentioned, the Titans have the Dragons twice in the first two months, plus the Tigers and Dolphins, giving them four chances to play sides that will likely also be down the bottom. You’d have to hope that they jag at least a few of them if the coach is to stand a chance.

Last year, four sides had two wins on the board prior to Magic Round. That would be the absolute bare minimum, one expects, to keep the Titans boss in a job.

Last but certainly not least, drama-wise, is Kevin Walters. His job is to make the Finals, period, and anything less won’t cut it.

They get the Panthers in Penrith first up and then the Cowboys, with the Bunnies, Radiers and Eels all on the horizon pre-Magic Round.

But then again, wait: they get two bonus home games, with the Dolphins set to host Brisbane at Suncorp, plus their traditional extra home game as Manly give their Brookvale clash with the Broncos to Magic Round itself.

Even the Eels, a potential horror away game, have decided to play Brisbane in Darwin. Between round one in Penrith and round 11 in Melbourne, the Broncos only actually travel once, to the NT for that Parramatta game. If you can’t win with that hand, maybe you’re in the wrong game.

Walters will be under unbelievable pressure if he can’t turn this kind of advantage into points on the ladder and Finals footy. He’ll need to bank that early: the Broncos started last year well and then faded badly, and that won’t be an option for them in 2023 because they face six of last year’s top eight in their last six fixtures.

Don’t back against the Bronx fading again, especially if they haven’t built up a head of steam that can see them through. It might become a calling card for Kevvie, and one that sees him struggle to keep in a job.